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7 Jul 2010 - Publication
Confronting the Crisis of International Climate Policy
Copenhagen failed to produce an agreement on climate change commensurate with the scale of the problem, highlighting the fundamental weaknesses in the existing UN framework. Progress on a new agreement is agonisingly slow. Weightier commitments by the major emitters are necessary, but calls for ‘greater ambition’ ignore the structural problems embedded in the institutions, processes and policy models of the UN climate regime.
This study proposes an international framework based on carbon prices rather than emissions targets. Under a price-based international framework, countries would undertake to implement specified actions and policies. Those policies should then be converted into an internationally standardised form of economy wide ‘carbon price equivalent’, with each country pledging/negotiating to implement a starting carbon price equivalent policy along with a schedule of real annual price increases.
Fergus Green Professor Warwick McKibbin Dr Greg Picker
8 Mar 2010 - Publication
Indonesia and Australia: time for a step change
The relationship with Indonesia is one of Australia’s most important but it is still not on a firm footing. Government-to-government ties have been strengthening but relations are focused around a mostly negative set of security-related issues. Business-to-business links are underdone and public perceptions are in a poor state. Even incremental improvements will be hard to make without dramatic leadership gestures to provide a much needed jolt to the relationship. In this Policy Brief, Fergus Hanson offers four suggestions for lifting the relationship up a notch.
Fergus Hanson
3 Feb 2010 - Publication
Capital flows, the carry trade and 'sand in the wheels'
The 'carry trade', in which capital shifts from countries with low interest rates to countries with significantly higher rates, has become an important element of international capital flows over the past decade. In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Dr Stephen Grenville looks at the challenges raised by these capital flows for economic policy.
The Global Financial Crisis will leave a legacy of substantial interest differentials between the slow-growing crisis countries and the emerging markets. This is likely to attract big short-term volatile capital flows which will push up exchange rates and leave these countries vulnerable to sudden outflows. Dr Grenville proposes that these countries should explore ways of discouraging these short-term inflows, and in doing this should have the backing of the IMF.
Dr Stephen Grenville AO
9 Dec 2009 - Publication
Obama's surge
In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, West Asia Program Director Anthony Bubalo considers the implications of President Obama’s decision to send additional US troops to Afghanistan. 'Obama’s surge: The United States, Australia and the second war for Afghanistan' discusses how shifts in US troops numbers and strategy, combined with the planned withdrawal of Dutch forces from Oruzgan, where the bulk of the Australian military force operates, raise a number of issues for Australian policy. It recommends an independent review of the factors that have contributed to improvements in Oruzgan’s security to date, greater flexibility in the way Australia deploys its military trainers and more effort to improve the effectivess of its civilian and diplomatic contributions to the war.
Anthony Bubalo
10 Nov 2009 - Publication
Problems to partnership: a plan for Australia-India strategic ties
In this Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Rory Medcalf, Program Director International Security, argues that Australia and India must not squander the chance to build a strategic partnership. Recent bilateral difficulties, such as over student welfare, have at least focused high-level attention on the relationship. A security declaration would be a positive step, but would need to be more than rhetoric, and include practical ideas for defence, intelligence and diplomatic cooperation to meet common challenges. Meanwhile the uranium export question has not gone away.
Rory Medcalf
27 Oct 2009 - Publication
Caught in the crossfire: the Pashtun tribes of Southeast Afghanistan
In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Tom Gregg argues the importance of a more effective engagement of Afghanistan’s tribes, particularly in the country’s south east. This could help improve stability in a strategically important part of the country and avoid a situation where local tribes were turned against the Afghan national government and international military forces operating in the region. 'Caught in the crossfire: the Pashtun tribes of southeast Afghanistan' recommends international assistance for efforts to reform the Afghan Ministry of Tribal and Border Affairs, the creation of a mechanism to deal with tribal grievances towards international military operations and the establishment of a Tribal Outreach Commission to build knowledge for, prioritise and manage tribal engagement at the local level.
Tom Gregg
20 Oct 2009 - Publication
A G-20 caucus for East Asia
In September 2009, the Pittsburgh Summit designated the G-20 as the world’s premier forum for international cooperation. The G-20 gives East Asia a significant presence at the top table of the world economy: six regional economies, including Australia, are members. This creates important new opportunities for the region. But making use of these opportunities requires significant increases in policy-making resources and in many Asian economies such resources are in short supply relative to the pressing problems they currently face. In a new Policy Brief, Stephen Grenville and Mark Thirlwell suggest that a caucus of the six East Asian members of the G-20 would provide an opportunity to pool resources for research and the preparation of policy papers on matters of common interest. This could help the region promote an agenda at the G-20 which would not only support regional interests, but would also assist in establishing the G-20’s relevance and keeping leaders engaged.
Dr Stephen Grenville AO Mark Thirlwell
7 Oct 2009 - Publication
Rebuilding Zimbabwe: Australia's role in supporting the transition
Last month marked the first anniversary of the 2008 power-sharing accord that resulted in the creation of a new unity government in Zimbabwe. In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Joel Negin and Jolyon Ford assess what Australia can do to assist the country’s re-emergence.
In March 2009, Australia became the first major donor country to provide assistance to the new power-sharing government. Given the pervading influence of hardline elements in the new government, however, many still worry about the risks involved in providing external support. Negin and Ford argue that external assistance can help sustain momentum for reform in Zimbabwe and sustain public belief in a post-Mugabe era. They propose several areas where Australian aid can provide support to the country’s fragile recovery process, including through a focus on agriculture and food security.
Jolyon Ford Joel Negin
1 Oct 2009 - Publication
Unconventional partners: Australia-India cooperation in reducing nuclear dangers
In this Policy Brief, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf and his Indian co-author Amandeep Gill argue that an innovative partnership between Australia and India would help erode the entrenched blocs that impede progress on nuclear disarmament. Their recommendations include: a leaders’ statement; a specialised bilateral dialogue; and practical cooperation on non-proliferation export controls, with Australia promoting Indian involvement in the so-called Australia Group to raise comfort levels between New Delhi and other such arrangements. This publication was produced under the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the Nuclear Security project (www.nuclearsecurityproject.org).
Amandeep Gill Rory Medcalf
14 Sep 2009 - Publication
External imbalances and the G20
In a new Policy Brief, Stephen Grenville argues that the Global Financial Crisis has changed the form of the external imbalances problem, but not removed it. Rather than see this as a bilateral issue, juxtaposing America’s unsustainable external deficit with China’s unsustainable surplus, the policy agenda should be broadened, to encompass ways of promoting globalisation rather than retreating from it. Next week’s G20 leaders’ meeting provides the forum for a more multilateral approach to policy coordination.
Dr Stephen Grenville AO
1 Sep 2009 - Publication
Message to the G20: Defeating protectionism begins at home
On 16 November last year, G20 leaders made a commitment to resist protectionism. According to the World Bank, by the end of February 2009, seventeen of the twenty had already ‘implemented 47 measures whose effect is to restrict trade.’ When the leaders meet in Pittsburgh on 24 September 2009, they will have an opportunity to review their commitment and decide how best to strengthen it.
In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Bill Carmichael, Saul Eslake and Mark Thirlwell argue that the advice that G20 leaders have received to date fails to deal with the underlying causes of protectionism. Protectionism results from decisions taken by governments at home, for domestic reasons. As a consequence, any effective response to protectionism needs to begin at home. The authors therefore propose that G20 leaders should sponsor domestic transparency arrangements in individual countries, in order to provide public advice about the economy-wide costs of domestic protection.
Mark Thirlwell
19 Aug 2009 - Publication
Australia's poisoned alumni: international education and the costs to Australia
In this new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Executive Director Michael Wesley analyses the multi-faceted international student debate. It canvasses the dynamics of the international student industry and the social, economic and criminal issues faced by international students during their time in Australia. Wesley scutinises the wide-ranging implications of the problem and considers that if left unaddressed, it is likely to worsen. The paper, with its considered and instructive policy recommendations, represents an independent and relevant contribution to the debate with Wesley forewarning the potential creation of a poisoned alumni.
Dr Michael Wesley
6 Aug 2009 - Publication
A tighter net: strengthening the Proliferation Security Initiative
In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, entitled 'A Tighter Net: Strengthening the Proliferation Security Initiative', non-proliferation scholar Emma Belcher urges practical steps for WMD non-proliferation at sea.
Australia and other countries should redouble their efforts to fix serious gaps in an international arrangement to stop maritime shipments of materials destined for weapons of mass destruction programs, according to the Brief. It argues that heightened concerns over North Korea provide an opportunity to bolster the Proliferation Security Initiative, a 95-country arrangement to promote interception of transfers of cargoes related to weapons of mass destruction.
Emma Belcher
22 Jul 2009 - Publication
China: stumbling through the Pacific
A new Policy Brief on China's aid program in the Pacific provides the most detailed picture yet of China's approach to aid-giving in the region. It suggests China is mired in a vicious cycle of short-termism that is a legacy of its long-running diplomatic battle with Taiwan. Its aid-giving is unpredictable, secretive and takes no account of recurring costs or debt burdening. The recent diplomatic truce between China and Taiwan offers China a chance to refocus its program towards longer-term development goals that also better serve Chinese national interests.
Fergus Hanson
22 Jun 2009 - Publication
Mass poverty in Asia and the GFC
In addition to the current Global Financial Crisis (GFC), there is a second global crisis: long-term poverty in the third world. While the rich world worries about a repeat of the Great Depression, today more than a billion people in Asia live in conditions of bitter poverty which are much worse than those of the 1930s. As a result of the GFC, poverty in developing Asia is now likely to increase. In a new Policy Brief, Peter McCawley argues that Australian economic diplomacy should place greater focus on the issue of mass poverty in Asia, and he emphasises the importance of strong economic growth as the best way to help Asia’s poor.
Peter McCawley
15 Apr 2009 - Publication
Fiji: the flailing state
The abrogation of Fiji's constitution could precipitate an economic collapse in Fiji, jeopardising regional stability and Australia's interests. In this new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Jenny Hayward-Jones, Program Director, The Myer Foundation Melanesia Program, argues that Australia needs to work urgently with the international financial institutions and regional governments to shore up regional economies while tightening political pressure on Fiji's military government.
In this video interview with Fergus Hanson, Jenny Hayward-Jones explains the recent political crisis in Fiji and outlines the reasoning behind the recommendation in her Policy Brief that Fiji needs urgent financial assistance to prevent economic meltdown.
Video Interview
Jenny Hayward-Jones
19 Mar 2009 - Publication
Refining the G-20 agenda
The G-20 Leaders will meet in London in April, faced by the most serious economic downturn for seventy years. The London agenda bears two heavy burdens. First, financial markets are expecting a confidence-boosting rabbit to be pulled out of the international policy hat, and no such magic trick exists. Second, the agenda has become the repository of all the ideas to make the world a better place, ranging from poverty alleviation to climate control. In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville makes some suggestions for the meeting's agenda.
Dr Stephen Grenville AO
11 Feb 2009 - Publication
Confronting reality: responding to war criminals living in Australia
In this Policy Brief, Fergus Hanson looks at the Australian government's current approach to suspected war criminals living here. It finds Australia has inadvertently become a safe haven for suspected war criminals and needs to do more to meet its international obligations to end impunity for the world's worst criminal offenders. It suggests a number of modest reforms the Rudd government could implement to meet its election commitment that suspected war criminals be brought to justice.
Fergus Hanson
22 Dec 2008 - Publication
Australian aid to Africa
As part of its commitment to increase spending on overseas development assistance, the Australian government has announced a substantial re-engagement with Africa. Despite the anticipated increase in funding, however, Australia will still be a small player in Africa's crowded development community. In a new Policy Brief, Joel Negin and Glenn Denning propose that, in order to ensure its engagement with Africa is as meaningful as possible, Australia should leverage areas of shared challenges between Australia and Africa where Australia's experience and expertise enable it to make strategic and mutually beneficial contributions. To this end, Negin and Denning argue that Australia should focus its African development program on sustainable agriculture and renewable energy.
Glenn Denning Joel Negin
4 Dec 2008 - Publication
Engaging Pakistan
The Mumbai terror attacks have once again focused attention on Pakistan's position as both a critical ally in the war on terror and a country in which a number of key terrorist groups have found safe haven. The international community faces a difficult dilemma in balancing demands that Pakistan do more to root out terrorist groups like al-Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Taiba, while protecting that country's fragile return to civilian rule. In this new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Claude Rakisits proposes a modest contribution that Australia might make toward building a more durable and productive relationship with Pakistan by broadening its engagement with key elements of Pakistani society beyond the military and intelligence elites that have traditionally been the focus of the West's ties with this strategically vital country.
Claude Rakisits is a Geneva-based Australian who heads an independent consultancy, Geopolitical Assessments.
Claude Rakisits
20 Nov 2008 - Publication
The sting of climate change
Climate change is not only affecting where people live and prosper but also where mosquitoes do. This is bad news for northern Australia and Australia's northern neighbours. In a new policy brief, Dr Sarah Potter, a malaria research scientist, analyses how climate change will likely affect the spread of malaria and dengue in maritime Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands and how Australia itself is at greater risk of outbreaks of these diseases.
Dr Sarah Potter
22 Sep 2008 - Publication
Beyond good governance
Australian aid has not been effective in helping the Pacific Islands region make significant progress in meeting the Millennium Development Goals. The focus of aid on improving public sector capacity and governance has not stimulated sufficient private sector participation to meet the development aspirations of Pacific Island populations.
In this Lowy Institute Policy Brief, The Myer Foundation Melanesia Program Director Jenny Hayward-Jones argues that Australian aid should be used to leverage growing corporate interest in reducing global poverty into investment in the Pacific - to create real income-earning opportunities for a burgeoning youth population and underscore a solid base for improved service delivery.
Jenny Hayward-Jones
8 Sep 2008 - Publication
Nuclear security: what else can Australia do?
Nuclear dangers are growing, yet so is a new 'realistic idealist' campaign for nuclear disarmament. In this Lowy Institute Policy Brief, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf suggests ways Australia might contribute to nuclear security in Asia and globally, in addition to the new international Commission that Canberra is co-sponsoring with Tokyo. These include rebuilding Australia's diplomatic capacity in arms control, urging the new US Administration to reduce American reliance on nuclear weapons, and starting a leaders' dialogue in Asia. A separate Lowy Institute Analysis provides background and further detail.
Rory Medcalf
29 Jul 2008 - Publication
So what? Matching policy to Australian interests in West Asia
In a new Lowy institute Policy Brief, West Asia Program Director Anthony Bubalo argues that the evolution of Australian policy in West Asia (the Middle East and Southwest Asia) has lagged behind the maturation of Australian interests in this part of the world. 'So what? Matching policy to Australian interests in West Asia' discusses new elements to a reinvigorated policy framework, including an enhanced dialogue with key regional leaders, a strategic partnership with one or two key countries, the strengthening of non-military cooperation, the leveraging of the growing regional economic role of the Gulf to promote Australian trade, the greater use of multilateral and second-track diplomacy on issues such as energy security and Afghanistan, a greater on-the-ground development presence and an expanded national capacity to analyse and assess regional developments.
Anthony Bubalo
11 Jun 2008 - Publication
The dragon in the Pacific: more opportunity than threat
China runs an opaque aid program in the Pacific that has fuelled suspicions about its motives in the region and that undermines efforts to improve accountability, governance and stability. Despite concerns about China’s aid program, China and Australia share broadly similar interests in the region and Australia and other donors would gain from working with China to improve the quality of its aid and reduce its destabilising side effects. In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Fergus Hanson suggests several new approaches to engaging China on its aid program.
Fergus Hanson
22 May 2008 - Publication
Why the Gulf matters:
crafting an Australian security policy for the Gulf
The imminent withdrawal of Australian combat forces from Iraq does not mean that the Arabian Gulf is peripheral to Australia's strategic interests. Australian forces have been deployed there regularly over the past 20 years, and Australia's and its main trading partners' energy requirements will increasingly be met from that region. In this new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Chief of Army Visiting Fellow Rodger Shanahan argues that Australia has permanent interests in the region and advocates the establishment of a strategic partnership with the United Arab Emirates.
Dr Rodger Shanahan
17 Oct 2007 - Publication
Looking after Australians overseas
More Australians are now travelling overseas than ever before, and more and more are finding themselves in trouble abroad as a result. The Federal Government has put a strong emphasis on helping those Australians whose travel plans go wrong for various reasons, but recently there have been signs that this may have gone too far. Today helping Australians in trouble abroad is perhaps the single most demanding and time-consuming responsibility of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Budgets are tight, and resources once devoted to wider national interests are now spent helping individuals who find themselves in trouble. This is starting to have implications for Australia's wider foreign policy.
In a Lowy Institute Policy Brief published in October 2007, Visiting Fellow Hugh White asked if it is time to start drawing some lines.
Professor Hugh White
17 Aug 2007 - Publication
Stopping a nuclear arms race between America and China
China and America may be at the start of a destabilising nuclear arms race, as China tries to preserve its ability to deter US nuclear attack in the light of US missile defences and nuclear system upgrades. That would undermine hopes that the US and China can build a stable cooperative relationship as China's power grows. So Australia has a big interest in trying to help head off the risk of an arms race. In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Hugh White suggests that there is something simple we could try.
Professor Hugh White
18 Jul 2007 - Publication
Design faults: the Asia Pacific’s regional architecture
In a new Policy Brief, Lowy Institute Executive Director Allan Gyngell argues that the Asia Pacific region has too many regional organisations, yet they are still unable to do all the things required of them. This matters at a time when the rising power of China and India presents new challenges. He suggests a new framework for regional institutions, including the establishment of a more effective security organisation and a heads of government meeting separate from APEC.
Allan Gyngell AO
4 May 2007 - Publication
Uranium for India: avoiding the pitfalls
In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Ron Walker, a former Australian Permanent Representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, warns that selling uranium to India without the same legal obligations and non-proliferation standards that apply to our other customers could undermine our broader foreign policy interests and weaken the national consensus to continue uranium mining and exports.
The Brief argues that instead of making an exception for India, Australia should work to strengthen the international nuclear non-proliferation system and engage India in that process. The result could be a more effective non-proliferation regime and one that includes India and, potentially, one day, the other two NPT holdouts.
Ron Walker is a Visiting Fellow at the Asia-Pacific College of Diplomacy at the Australian National University. He was Chairman of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency in 1993-1994.
Ron Walker
14 Mar 2007 - Publication
A long hot summer
In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, William Maley and Daoud Yaqub explore the implications of the looming Taliban Spring offensive on the international reconstruction and security effort in Afghanistan. Maley and Yaqub argue that a more aggressive posture by Coalition forces toward the Taliban and more concerted international pressure on Pakistan are needed to ensure that Afghanistan does not once again become a safe haven for international terrorist organisations.
Professor William Maley Daoud Yaqub
6 Mar 2007 - Publication
HIV/AIDS: The looming Asia Pacific pandemic
In a Policy Brief on HIV/AIDS in the Asia Pacific, Bill Bowtell calls for both a doubling of global funding for the response to the HIV pandemic, and a radical overhaul of strategies that have not brought the global pandemic under control. He proposes that the international community must commit itself to the eradication of HIV/AIDS by the end of the 21st century. Australia is well placed to increase its already significant contribution to the fight against HIV/AIDS in the region, and especially in the south Pacific and Melanesia.
Bill Bowtell
21 Feb 2007 - Publication
Reinventing 'West Asia'
In conjunction with the launch of the Lowy Institute's West Asia program, Anthony Bubalo, Director of the new program, argues why the Middle East and South Asia increasingly comprise one strategically coherent region, 'West Asia', and explores the policy significance of this for Australia.
Anthony Bubalo
18 Jan 2007 - Publication
China and Taiwan in the South Pacific: diplomatic chess versus Pacific political rugby
In this Lowy Institute Policy Brief, entitled China and Taiwan in the South Pacific: diplomatic chess versus Pacific political rugby, Graeme Dobell looks at how the competition for diplomatic recognition between China and Taiwan is destabilising Island states and undermining Australia's interests in the region. Graeme Dobell is one of the ABC's most experienced reporters of Asia Pacific affairs. He is now the Foreign Affairs & Defence Correspondent for Radio Australia.
Graeme Dobell
16 Nov 2006 - Publication
New rules for a new 'Great Game'
Energy insecurity, driven by high demand and uncertainty over supply, is fuelling a surging interest in equity in Middle East oil fields among major energy consumers, particularly in Northeast Asia. There is a risk that the resultant competition for oil and other energy resources in the Middle East will aggravate existing tensions or even create new conflicts. In a new Policy Brief, Anthony Bubalo and Mark Thirlwell argue that the G-20, meeting in Melbourne this weekend, should take a leading role in ensuring that energy insecurity does not become a global strategic problem.
Anthony Bubalo Mark Thirlwell
9 Aug 2006 - Publication
Capital punishment and Australian foreign policy
In this recent Policy Brief, Dr Michael Fullilove examines how the Australian Government implements its stated opposition to the death penalty. He finds that while Australia is an effective advocate for Australian nationals on death row, we do less than we could in relation to universal abolition. Dr Fullilove argues Canberra should accelerate its efforts on comprehensive abolition, in two ways.
First, our political leaders should bring some consistency to their rhetoric on the death penalty. It is difficult to discern such consistency at the moment, which makes us look hypocritical when we ask for our own people to be spared.
Second, Australia should initiate a regional coalition against the death penalty, building on the momentum created by its abolition in five Asian countries in the past decade and a half. Megaphone diplomacy need not be employed; the regional coalition should look for creative ways to nudge regional countries toward abolition.
Dr Michael Fullilove
13 May 2006 - Publication
Geeing up the G-20
In this Policy Brief, Malcolm Cook and Mark Thirlwell make the case for a greater role for the G-20 in the international economic architecture.
Dr Malcolm Cook Mark Thirlwell
20 Nov 2005 - Publication
Football diplomacy
While Australian governments have successfully built pragmatic ties with Asian leaders, a popular dimension to our engagement with Asia has in many respects been missing. This didn't matter greatly in the past, but today public opinion is increasingly a factor in foreign policy. A new opportunity to deepen people-to-people links with Asia has arrived in the form of Australia's recent admission into the Asian Football Confederation.
Drawing on ideas that emerged from the Lowy Institute's Football Diplomacy seminar last October, this Policy Brief examines how Australia can best use this new sporting relationship with Asia to enhance its regional image and engagement.
Anthony Bubalo
14 Oct 2005 - Publication
Saving APEC
In 2007, Sydney will host the most important and expensive diplomatic meeting ever held in Australia, the APEC leaders' meeting. In 'How to Save APEC', the first of a new series of Lowy Institute Policy Briefs, Allan Gyngell and Malcolm Cook analyse APEC's problems and the competitive threats it faces.
The brief offers recommendations for necessary and achievable reforms that can help ensure that APEC does not sink into costly irrelevance. Allan Gyngell is the Institute's Executive Director and Malcolm Cook is the Program Director for Asia and the Pacific.
Dr Malcolm Cook Allan Gyngell AO
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