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Anxious about China, unsure about the US: Australians and the 2016 Lowy Institute Poll
It's likely 2016 will be remembered as a year of polls: the Brexit poll this week, the Australian election on 2 July, the US presidential election in November, and even a UN poll…
Pacific Island links: PNG protests, InterOil takeover, Vanuatu's female MP quota and more
Student protests across Papua New Guinea continue as Prime Minister O’Neill has refused  demands to step aside. Four weeks of protest has forced UPNG to suspend the teaching…
Yes, monetary policy does still work
Did you know that Australia once had a double dissolution election where the trigger was the conduct of monetary policy? It was our second double dissolution election, in 1951  …
The Middle East in 2016 (part 5): Cultivating order
Part 1 of this seven-part series is here; part 2 here; part 3 here: and part 4 here. In February 2014 I visited Za'atari refugee camp in Jordan, near the Syrian border. According…
The 2016 Lowy Lecture: Exciting times ahead on a sombre day
When Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull launched the 2016 Defence White Paper one month ago he said that 'it sets out a clear eyed and unsentimental appraisal of our…
The Middle East in 2016 (part 2): The old order will continue to decay
Part 1 of this seven-part series is here. One of the enduring myths of the Arab uprisings is that it was primarily a brave, noble but ultimately vain attempt by young liberals to…
The Middle East in 2016 (part 1): Levantine limbo
This is the first post in a series of seven on the Middle East in 2016. The first three will look at what I think will happen in the region this year; the second three will…
Iran election: A vote of confidence in President Rouhani
Results from Iranian parliamentary and assembly elections held over the weekend have not yet been finalised, however what we know so far is encouraging. First of all, turnout is…
Has Tony Abbott torpedoed the captain's pick?
Tony Abbott’s weekend speech in Tokyo, titled 'Against Strategic Pessimism’, was unsurprising in its robust advocacy of Australia’s 'special relationship' with Japan, based on…
Australia's national interest statement on TPP neglects capital control risks
Capital controls used to be taboo. The idea that a country would interfere with the free flow of capital across its borders was anathema to any right-thinking policy-maker. That…