Publications by Dr Rodger Shanahan

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  • Rouhani: The style/substance divide

    Hassan Rouhani's first-round success in the Iranian elections has sent an strong message to the regime. On the face of it, the process went well. Having ensured that the list of candidates was not going to offer any existential threat to the system , Ayatollah Khamenei needed to ensure that this...
    17 June 2013
    By
    Dr Rodger Shanahan

  • Advice to McCain on Syria: Trust no one

    It sounded so perfect. The hawkish Republican war hero John McCain visiting rebel-held Syrian territory to show the locals that not all US politicians are lily-livered liberals who have doubts about arming the Syrian freedom fighters. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee, of which McCain is a...
    4 June 2013
    By
    Dr Rodger Shanahan
  • Commentary

    Pan-Arabism loses ground in religious divide

    In an opinion piece in The Australian, Rodger Shanahan writes that religion has emerged as the defining element of identity in the post-Arab Spring Middle East.
    4 June 2013
    Commentary
    By
    Dr Rodger Shanahan

  • Syria: Hizbullah's line in the sand

    Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah's speech on Sunday (which the Iranians would have you believe was watched by Obama live) merely formalised what everyone has known for a while now: Hizbullah and its chief sponsor Iran no longer believe Assad is a lost cause. During my recent trip to...
    28 May 2013
    By
    Dr Rodger Shanahan

  • Eight is enough: Iran's elections

    Iran's Guardian Council has stayed true to form, rejecting the vast majority of the 600 candidates who nominated to run in next month's presidential elections and approving just eight. The most contentious refusal was that of the former two-term president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani , who held the...
    23 May 2013
    By
    Dr Rodger Shanahan

  • Syria: A week is a long time

    In order to make any sense of a conflict it is necessary to take the long view; snapshots at any particular time can skew one's perspective. But having said that, this week has been of particular interest for Syria watchers because of the range of issues raised, all of which further illustrate why...
    17 May 2013
    By
    Dr Rodger Shanahan

  • Iran elections: Rise of the guardians

    Given Australia's unofficial nine-month long election campaign, it is worth noting that, six weeks out from the Iranian presidential election, the names of the candidates are not even known yet. Registration of presidential candidates was conducted between 9-11 May, at which point the Guardians...
    13 May 2013
    By
    Dr Rodger Shanahan
  • Commentary

    Talks are only Syrian solution

    In an opinion piece in The Australian, Rodger Shanahan write that US Secretary of State John Kerry's trip to Russia and the subsequent announcement of a peace conference to be attended by Assad government officials and opposition members is a welcome chink of light in an otherwise bleak outlook for...
    13 May 2013
    Commentary
    By
    Dr Rodger Shanahan

  • Syria: Claims, damned claims and reality

    I wrote previously about the philosophical reluctance of President Obama to use US power unless key US interests were at stake. Martin Indyk's excellent talk at the Lowy Institute last Thursday gave us more insight into the way Obama views the Middle East in general, and Syria in particular. It...
    6 May 2013
    By
    Dr Rodger Shanahan

  • The politician as painter

    Sam Roggeveen's post raises an interesting question as to whether George W Bush would have been more inquisitive (and hence made better decisions) if he had taken up painting before his presidency. The argument being that the painter's need to determine perspective is a good grounding for looking...
    3 May 2013
    By
    Dr Rodger Shanahan

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