Bob Bowker

Unsolved political issues in the Middle East leave barren soil for economic and social green shoots.

The only response that will matter to Assad is that which comes from Moscow and Tehran.

Since the reversal in 1923 by its nationalist leader Mohamed Kemal Ataturk of an earlier western-backed scheme for Kurdish independence, Turkey has done anything it could — diplomatically, militarily and politically — to prevent Kurdish autonomy taking root in Syria.

The balance of diplomatic advantage between the foreign powers involved in the Syria conflict will inevitably reflect the momentum of the military situation. In that sense, as discussed in part 1 of this series, the Russians and Assad are in a far stronger position than their opponents. Images of human suffering and refugee movements will continue to drive demand for diplomatic efforts to end the war.