Ian Brownlie writes:
A couple of comments on Stephen Grenville's post this morning on Jokowi and Indonesia's 2014 elections:
Jokowi is not formally a member of Megawati's PDI-P but is closely affiliated to it and has been wooing her, apparently to some effect, even before he became governor of Jakarta (not mayor* — Jakarta consists of five sub-cities, each of which has a mayor under the governor). Jokowi will definitely have to rely on nomination by PDI-P, which is Jokowi's natural constituency. Some other parties have been saying they'd consider nominating him but, to the extent that's not mere gamesmanship by the other parties, it would be counter-productive for Jokowi to switch horses now or in 2014.
The other candidates have had 'their well-funded publicity machines' going for a long time now, two years in Prabowo's case. (And there are questions over how long Bakrie's funds can last out.) They've had no effect on Jokowi's popularity: in fact, Prabowo's support has deflated as Jokowi's has risen, despite the presumably ongoing infusions of funds from Prabowo's brother. Jokowi already has a war-chest, and when/if Megawati gives him her blessing (I go for 'when'), further campaign donors will be lining up, especially Chinese Indonesians.
SBY's party did not win an outright majority in parliament in 2009**, only a smallish plurality: 21% of the votes, 26.5% of the seats. The loose alliance of parties which support SBY on a good day is certainly a majority, but is unreliable. In a Jokowi presidency, the optimistic scenario for the parliament would have a less compromised and less self-interested president than SBY nurturing a similar behavioural trend among parliamentarians. The pessimistic scenario for the parliament would of course be BAU.
[fold]
New topic: you requested views on why Indonesia has reacted so strongly to claims about Australian and US spying, especially out of the Australian embassy and Bali consulate-general. While the reaction is of course domestically driven as with Germany, the particular factor in Indonesia's case is the knee-jerk sense of victimhood from exploitation by wealthier, stronger outsiders seen subconsciously or consciously as neo-colonialist invaders. The Germans may admit that spying is something they also do; for Indonesians, it can only be something that others do to them. The story is in fact getting some play in the Indonesian press, meaning that there's no political mileage in a soft response (especially for a foreign minister who may hope to be reappointed by the next administration — but that's pure speculation).
* This error was introduced in the editing process. Jakowi's title is 'governor', although he is often referred to as 'mayor' in the foreign media.
** This error appeared when the post was originally published but was corrected by the author within minutes of publication.