Programs & Projects

Global Economic Futures

Global Economic Futures

Trade wars, populism, and geopolitics. The world is quickly becoming more fraught as complex forces threaten to disrupt and reshape the global economy in profound ways. In this context, the Lowy Institute launched the Global Economic Futures project aimed at better understanding this rapidly changing global economic landscape, where it might take us, and the key choices to be made.

The project examines the future shape of the global economy especially given rising tensions between the world’s two largest economies – the United States and China – and the possible implications for, and changing roles of, major regional economies, including Australia, India, Indonesia and others.

Experts
Latest publications
News and media
The US is elbowing Australia and allies in a race for the China market
The US is elbowing Australia and allies in a race for the China market
US President Donald Trump was quite right when he declared the 15 January US­–China “Stage One” agreement an “unbelievable deal” for the United States. Unbelievable it is, though…
Reports of China’s economic death are greatly exaggerated
Reports of China’s economic death are greatly exaggerated
“CHINA’S GDP GROWS AT SLOWEST RATE IN 29 YEARS” bellowed the Financial Times headline last week. Never mind that this rate was still three times faster than OECD growth. The past…
China’s Economic Choices
Analyses
China’s Economic Choices
China’s economic growth has fallen to its slowest rate since 1990, and this deceleration looks set to continue unless China implements the kinds of deep reforms behind the…
Economic diplomacy: Free trade disputes, WTO appeals, DFAT on China
Economic diplomacy: Free trade disputes, WTO appeals, DFAT on China
Empty bench It has been one of the most forecast developments in geo-economics, but the World Trade Organisation is about to finally suffer the crippling blow of its appeals…
China-US trade war: For all the bark, not much bite
China-US trade war: For all the bark, not much bite
It is now nearly 17 months since the Trump administration began collecting 25% tariffs on the first tranche of Chinese imports to the US – time enough to evaluate the economic…
Economic diplomacy: Australia’s BRI, aid revamp, and integrating Asia
Economic diplomacy: Australia’s BRI, aid revamp, and integrating Asia
The big boost When Prime Minister Scott Morrison put the South Pacific at the centre of his foreign policy priorities last year, the relatively low-profile Export…
Book review: China, the US, and the big break
Book review: China, the US, and the big break
Book review: Paul Blustein: Schism: China, America, and the Fracturing of the Global Trading System (CIGI Press, 2019) Paul Blustein has produced an enviable bookshelf of…
Jokowi’s curious plan for Indonesia’s capital
Jokowi’s curious plan for Indonesia’s capital
After winning a second and final term, Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced, “I have no burden now. I’m not thinking about next elections… so I will do whatever it takes for…
Signs of a deal between US and China, and a rethink
Signs of a deal between US and China, and a rethink
It is not yet agreed, may yet fail, and is anyway unlikely to settle matters, but the impending “phase one” trade deal could be a useful ceasefire in the US economic war with…
Economic diplomacy: RCEP and ASEAN’s new way, plus voting ADB-style
Economic diplomacy: RCEP and ASEAN’s new way, plus voting ADB-style
Market day For two generations, the term “Factory Asia” has neatly encapsulated the essence of the region’s economic success, with components flowing across the region for…