Publications

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The coronavirus outbreak has exposed the deep flaws of Xi’s autocracy

China’s political system was meant to be all-powerful, capable of dealing with any crisis. The death of one doctor has shaken that claim. Originally published in The Guardian.

By Richard McGregor

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Taiwan Flashpoint: What Australia Can Do to Stop the Coming Taiwan Crisis

Australian diplomacy could ease rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait, if Australian policymakers rediscovered an appetite for involvement in the flashpoint

By Brendan Taylor

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China’s Economic Choices

China’s economic growth has fallen to its slowest rate since 1990, and this deceleration looks set to continue unless China implements the kinds of deep reforms behind the successful economic transitions of Japan and Korea

By David Orsmond

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Politics comes first in China's agony

In an opinion piece originally published in the Financial Review, Natasha Kassam argues that China's biggest concern in dealing with the new coronavirus is maintaining stability and keeping its grip on information

By Natasha Kassam

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How I Lost My Faith in America

The world still wants to believe in the US. But it needs some help. Originally published in The Atlantic

By Michael Fullilove

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How the coronavirus crisis has brewed a ‘revolt of the professionals’ in China

Doctors, scientists, lawyers and journalists are pushing back against Communist Party structures in a rare backlash against suppression of information. If Beijing can learn to leave them to do their jobs, that would be real reform, akin to a mini-revolution. Originally published in South China

By Richard McGregor

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How Beijing's silence helped spread the virus

Beijing's blaming of local officials and signs on a clampdown on information about the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak has tragic echoes of the mishandling of the SARs virus more than a decade ago, writes Richard McGregor. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Richard McGregor

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Soft power goes up in smoke

A unique connection to nature is at the heart of our international appeal. Foot-dragging on climate is squandering it. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Hervé Lemahieu

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As Wuhan virus spreads, Taiwan has no say at WHO

Chinese pressure keeps Taipei out of international organizations—putting everyone at more risk. Originally published in Foreign Policy.

By Natasha Kassam

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Taiwan’s 2020 elections

China has lost the battle for public opinion in Taiwan

By Natasha Kassam, Richard McGregor

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US killing of Soleimani hands Iran a new opportunity to expand power

Originally published in ABC Online

By Lydia Khalil

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Behind the News: Inside China Global Television Network

Can China’s television network be an effective soft power tool

By Merriden Varrall

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A vital cog in the leader's great plan

Originally published in The Sunday Times

By Richard McGregor

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PNG must respect voters and help form world’s newest nation

Originally published in The Australian

By Shane McLeod, Jonathan Pryke

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The 2017 Lowy Lecture: Then-UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson

On 27 July the UK Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, the Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP, delivered the 2017 Lowy Lecture at Sydney Town Hall

By Boris Johnson

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2020 Will Be a Watershed Year for the Global Economy

Originally published in the Council of Councils' Global Outlook 2020: The Economy

By Roland Rajah

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Why the day of the party is done

Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Sam Roggeveen

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International Public Broadcasting: A Missed Opportunity For Projecting Australia’s Soft Power

Australia’s depleted international broadcasting is impairing the projection of Australia’s soft power at a time when government is seeking to increase its regional influence, particularly in the Pacific

By Annmaree O’Keeffe, Chris Greene

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Australia's PNG step-up in a tumultuous year

Originally published in The Australian Financial Review

By Shane McLeod, Jonathan Pryke

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Japan can teach Australia how to carefully handle China

Scott Morrison needs to study Shinzo Abe's resolve. Originally published in Nikkei Asian Review

By Richard McGregor

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China has lost Taiwan, and it knows it

So it is attacking democracy on the island from within. Orignally published in the New York Times

By Natasha Kassam

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Are our politicians a security risk?

Should spooks vet the reliability of parliamentarians? It is not clear that doing so would benefit our democracy. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Daniel Flitton

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An address on China by Tony Abbott

On 28 November, former Prime Minister Tony Abbott gave an address on China at the Lowy Institute

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Pacific islands avoid China's 'debt-trap' diplomacy for now

Beijing's interest in the region sparks fears it is making unsustainable loans. Originally published in Nikkei Asian Review

By Alexandre Dayant

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The new geography of global diplomacy

China advances as the US retreats. Originally published in Foreign Affairs

By Bonnie Bley

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2019 Global Diplomacy Index

Visualising the diplomatic networks of 61 G20, OECD and Asian countries and territories

By Bonnie Bley

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Australia’s Brexit?

Loss of confidence in political parties could translate into disengagement from our region. Originally published in Inside Story

By Sam Roggeveen

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Touted as ‘next Hong Kong’ Taiwan lives on the edge

Originally published in The Australian

By Natasha Kassam, Richard McGregor

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When is mental illness an excuse for terrorism?

Originally published in The Australian

By Rodger Shanahan

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Beijing's tactics are driving spiral of violence in Hong Kong

If China is trying to drive wedges between the protest movement and mainstream citizens, it seems to be failing. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Ben Bland

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Typology of Terror — The Backgrounds of Australian Jihadis

In order to better understand what motivates Australian radical islamists to join or support a terrorist group it is first necessary to get a better understanding of who they are. This working paper examines data sets from 173 Australian citizens and residents to paint a picture of our own

By Rodger Shanahan

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Our Very Own Brexit

Australia’s Hollow Politics and Where It Could Lead Us

By Sam Roggeveen

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Foreign and Security Policy in the new Malaysia

Malaysia’s foreign and security policy faces myriad challenges, but not much is likely to change under Mahathir Mohamad’s ‘New Malaysia’ framework

By Elina Noor

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Is Australia's Asian dream fading?

In our rush to step up in the Pacific, we must not make the mistake of stepping down in south-east Asia. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Hervé Lemahieu

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Debt-trap diplomacy not happening yet, but cause for concern

Originally published in The Australian

By Roland Rajah

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Ocean of debt? Belt and Road and debt diplomacy in the Pacific

China has not been engaged in debt trap diplomacy — at least not yet

By Roland Rajah, Alexandre Dayant, Jonathan Pryke

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2019 Lowy Institute Media Lecture

On 19 October, Chair of the ABC Ita Buttrose AC OBE gave the 2019 Lowy Institute Media Lecture

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Ironclad - Forging a new future for America's alliances: book chapter

In a new book edited by Dr. Michael J. Green of Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington D.C., the final chapter by Alex Oliver looks at international public opinion towards the US' system of alliances and finds that attitudes have been surprisingly

By Alex Oliver

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2019 Aus-Fiji Business Forum After dinner address

On 17 October Jonathan Pryke addressed the 2019 Aus-Fiji Business Forum at the Marriott Brisbane Hotel on the topic of the Australia-Fiji relationship over the next twenty-five years

By Jonathan Pryke

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Trump hands Syria an easy win

The Kurds will have to make their peace with Bashar al-Assad. Western governments will worry about ISIS fighters becoming bargaining chips. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Rodger Shanahan

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Trump wants China to help him win. China wants nothing to do with him.

What Xi Jinping and his top Communist Party deputies think of the U.S. president. Originally published in the Washington Post

By Richard McGregor

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Speech by Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands

On October 10, the Lowy Institute hosted Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte for a public address. Mr Rutte spoke about the future of the global rules-based order. Following his speech the Institute’s Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove conducted a Q&A session with Mr Rutte

By Mark Rutte

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The Bougainville referendum and beyond

As Bougainville prepares for a referendum on independence, Australia must navigate a policy response that acknowledges the history of conflict and colonialism there, Bougainville nationalism, PNG sensitivities, the principles of the guiding Bougainville Peace Agreement and new geostrategic

By Ben Bohane

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The 2019 Lowy Lecture: Prime Minister Scott Morrison

On 3 October 2019, the Prime Minister Scott Morrison was invited to give the annual 2019 Lowy Lecture

By Scott Morrison

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Now we must set sights on the G7

Australia has a strong case to join the top democratic table. The PM should ask Donald Trump for help to do so. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Michael Fullilove, Thomas Wright

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The Current State of the World Trading System and Its Likely Future

On 17 September 2019, the Lowy Institute hosted Ambassador Alan Wm Wolff, Deputy Director-General of the World Trade Organization, for a discussion of the risks and opportunities facing world trade at this decisive moment. Mr Wolff became WTO Deputy Director-General in October 2017, after a long

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Are Trumpians or Boltonians in charge?

The US alliance is the great totem of Australia's foreign policy, before which our major parties kneel. But they should look up once in a while, lest the tectonic plates shift again and the totem topples. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Sam Roggeveen

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Size vs statecraft: How India and Japan play the major power game

Japan and India’s differences might just be what makes this unlikely partnership effective. Originally published in The Diplomat

By Bonnie Bley

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Middle-power bonding has major advantages for ‘overachievers’

Originally published in The Australian

By Bonnie Bley

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Australia must perfect the art of sizing up China

Neither the US nor China can dominate the other. That leaves an opening for smart middle powers that know their own strengths. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Hervé Lemahieu

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