Publications

Originally published in the Council on Foreign Relations

While the medical prognosis looks less alarming, the economic prospect is as grim as ever. The Reserve Bank has done what it can, now it's up to the government, writes Stephen Grenville. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

COVID-19 and politics are driving them apart but trade keeps them together. Originally published in Nikkei Asian Review. 

Events this week show that, amid the most protracted great power stand-off since the Cold War, middle powers can forge global consensus. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

Originally published in the Sydney Morning Herald. 

Judges alone cannot protect territory from Beijing's heavy-handed interventions. Originally published in Nikkei Asian Review

The Lowy Institute COVIDpoll finds that almost all Australians say Australia has handled COVID-19 well, but most are disappointed by China and the United States’ response

Originally published in War on the Rocks

West Papuans continue to fight for independence with the support of many Pacific nations. Despite Indonesia’s opposition and the recent impact of COVID-19 on the region, the resolution of West Papuan grievances may have stalled but nationalist sentiment has not been quelled. 

Originally published in ChinaFile and Foreign Policy

Originally published in The Australian

Beijing is using health care to improve relations in strategically significant area. Originally published in the Nikkei Asian Review. 

Originally published in The Australian

Originally published in the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum

COVID-19 looks set to hit the emerging world hard. For Australia, what happens in India and Indonesia could be most consequential. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Stephen Grenville evaluates the RBA's response to COVID-19. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

It may be the global politics of the pandemic, rather than COVID-19 itself, that proves our undoing. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review 

It’s quite a while since I was at the Reserve Bank, but one of my tasks there was to draft replies to letters received. So let me try my hand at responding to Christopher Joye’s "Virus gets upper hand in battle against central banks" (AFR, March 13). Originally published in the Australian

Central banks around the world are caught in the same bind: inflation is below their target. Originally published in The Australian

The examples of Egypt and Saudi Arabia show the risks in betting on the stability of autocratic regimes in the region. 

In Asia, power is shifting. The changing balance of power is setting the stage for prolonged great power competition. As the US-led rules-based order decays, the question is what regional order – if any – will replace it

A submission to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Review of Australian's Development Program

China’s political system was meant to be all-powerful, capable of dealing with any crisis. The death of one doctor has shaken that claim. Originally published in The Guardian. 

China’s economic growth has fallen to its slowest rate since 1990, and this deceleration looks set to continue unless China implements the kinds of deep reforms behind the successful economic transitions of Japan and Korea