Beware letting inexact science of modelling drive policy
Originally published in The Australian
Friday 27 Nov 2020 | 10:58 | SYDNEY
What's happening on 
Helicopter money is not what you think
Originally published in the Australian Financial Review
China's coronavirus aid to Pacific islands is part of geopolitical game
Beijing is using health care to improve relations in strategically significant area. Originally published in the Nikkei Asian Review.
Why Xi will shelter behind the great wall of secrecy
Beijing will oppose an international investigation into the pandemic because accountability would put the one-party system in the dock. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review
Washington could win hearts and minds in Iran
Originally published in The Australian
How to win the war: some valuable lessons from history
Comparison with wartime sacrifices might put the necessary inconveniences into perspective. Nonresident Fellow Stephen Grenville writes on COVID-19. Originally published in The Australian
The World After COVID
How will the COVID-19 pandemic change the world? Lowy Institute experts provide their analysis
Helicopter money’s unearned popularity
Originally published in the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum
Coronavirus: Global giants stumble while agile nations inspire
Lowy Institute Executive Director Michael Fullilove writes on the ways COVID-19 will alter some of the patterns of international life. Originally published in The Australian
How the virus could stagger Asia's giants
COVID-19 looks set to hit the emerging world hard. For Australia, what happens in India and Indonesia could be most consequential. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review
By Roland Rajah
The balance between medicine and economics
Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Stephen Grenville asks if the policy response to Covid-19 strikes the right balance in the debate between epidemiologists and economists, moderated by the public-relations experts. Originally published in The Australian
The government's bazooka is biggest, not the RBA's
Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Stephen Grenville evaluates the RBA's response to COVID-19. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review
China is rewriting coronavirus history and nobody will stop it
In an opinion piece published in the Nikkei Asian Review, Natasha Kassam argues that China has leapt on the opportunity to shape the global narrative about its response to the coronavirus as other countries grapple to manage the crisis
West must face its viral demons
It may be the global politics of the pandemic, rather than COVID-19 itself, that proves our undoing.
Originally published in the Australian Financial Review
Vital to focus on fiscal policy as recession inevitable
It goes without saying that the medical response to the pandemic should have the highest policy priority ... On the economics of the pandemic, initial reactions have been quickly outdated. Originally published in The Australian
The RBA's job is to back banks, not bail out gamblers
It’s quite a while since I was at the Reserve Bank, but one of my tasks there was to draft replies to letters received. So let me try my hand at responding to Christopher Joye’s "Virus gets upper hand in battle against central banks" (AFR, March 13). Originally published in the Australian
Avoiding the wrong lessons on aid and corruption
Is development aid an effective solution to lifting countries out of poverty? Roland Rajah, Director of the International Economy Program, and Research Fellow Alexandre Dayant write on aid and corruption. Originally published in the Devpolicy Blog
Central bank reputations at risk from impossible targets
Central banks around the world are caught in the same bind: inflation is below their target. Originally published in The Australian
Paranoid leaders hoping repression can lead to stability
This is an edited extract from the Lowy Institute Analysis ‘The Path of Least Resilience: Autocratic Rule and External Powers In The Middle East’ by Anthony Bubalo. The extract first appeared in The Australian
The Path of Least Resilience: Autocratic Rule and External Powers in the Middle East
The examples of Egypt and Saudi Arabia show the risks in betting on the stability of autocratic regimes in the region.
An address by Admiral Philip S. Davidson on the United States' Interests in the Indo-Pacific
On 13 February the 25th Commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Philip S. Davidson, delivered an address on the United States' interests in the Indo-Pacific at the Lowy Institute
Joe Biden's victory for normal
History is against a win for the former vice president in November. But you can't blame allies for hoping that yet another shock awaits. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review
Middle Powers Will Determine the Future of the Asian Order
In the Ambassador's Brief, Herve Lemahieu describes how the changing balance of power in Asia is setting the stage for prolonged great power competition. As the US-led rules-based order decays, the question is what regional order – if any – will replace it
What are the Right Encryption Laws for Australia?
On March 5, 2020, Lowy Institute Research Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan was joined in conversation with Dr James Renwick SC to discuss possible models for reconciling the legitimate interests of individuals, organisations, and business, and intelligence, police and integrity agencies
Submission to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Review of Australia's Development Program
A submission to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Review of Australian's Development Program
Morrison Struggles Amidst His Bushfire Response
Originally published in the Council on Foreign Relations
2019 Australia-Papua New Guinea Emerging Leaders Dialogue Outcomes Report
The Lowy Institute hosted the seventh Australia–Papua New Guinea Emerging Leaders Dialogue on 5 and 6 November 2019 in Wewak, Papua New Guinea
The coronavirus outbreak has exposed the deep flaws of Xi’s autocracy
China’s political system was meant to be all-powerful, capable of dealing with any crisis. The death of one doctor has shaken that claim. Originally published in The Guardian.
Taiwan Flashpoint: What Australia Can Do to Stop the Coming Taiwan Crisis
Australian diplomacy could ease rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait, if Australian policymakers rediscovered an appetite for involvement in the flashpoint
Politics comes first in China's agony
In an opinion piece originally published in the Financial Review, Natasha Kassam argues that China's biggest concern in dealing with the new coronavirus is maintaining stability and keeping its grip on information
The New Wave of Middle-East Media Repression
In an opinion piece published in Project Syndicate, Lydia Khalil describes how the governments of Egypt and Saudi Arabia have suppressed unfavorable information to hold on to power. But the experiences of Iraq and Lebanon suggest that this approach has limits in political systems that depend on
By Lydia Khalil
How I Lost My Faith in America
The world still wants to believe in the US. But it needs some help.
Originally published in The Atlantic
How the coronavirus crisis has brewed a ‘revolt of the professionals’ in China
Doctors, scientists, lawyers and journalists are pushing back against Communist Party structures in a rare backlash against suppression of information.
If Beijing can learn to leave them to do their jobs, that would be real reform, akin to a mini-revolution.
Originally published in South China
How Beijing's silence helped spread the virus
Beijing's blaming of local officials and signs on a clampdown on information about the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak has tragic echoes of the mishandling of the SARs virus more than a decade ago, writes Richard McGregor. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review
Soft power goes up in smoke
A unique connection to nature is at the heart of our international appeal. Foot-dragging on climate is squandering it.
Originally published in the Australian Financial Review
As Wuhan virus spreads, Taiwan has no say at WHO
Chinese pressure keeps Taipei out of international organizations—putting everyone at more risk.
Originally published in Foreign Policy
Anchoring the Indo-Pacific
A report by Premesha Saha, Ben Bland, and Evan A. Laksmana published by the Observer Research Foundation.
US killing of Soleimani hands Iran a new opportunity to expand power
Originally published in ABC Online
By Lydia Khalil
Behind the News: Inside China Global Television Network
Can China’s television network be an effective soft power tool
Taiwan’s 2020 elections
China has lost the battle for public opinion in Taiwan
A vital cog in the leader's great plan
Originally published in The Sunday Times
PNG must respect voters and help form world’s newest nation
Originally published in The Australian
Being a video vigilante can serve the greater good, but that doesn't mean it's always right
Originally published in ABC News
China’s Economic Choices
China’s economic growth has fallen to its slowest rate since 1990, and this deceleration looks set to continue unless China implements the kinds of deep reforms behind the successful economic transitions of Japan and Korea
The 2017 Lowy Lecture: Then-UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson
On 27 July the UK Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, the Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP, delivered the 2017 Lowy Lecture at Sydney Town Hall
2020 Will Be a Watershed Year for the Global Economy
Originally published in the Council of Councils' Global Outlook 2020: The Economy
By Roland Rajah
Why the day of the party is done
Originally published in the Australian Financial Review
International Public Broadcasting: A Missed Opportunity For Projecting Australia’s Soft Power
Australia’s depleted international broadcasting is impairing the projection of Australia’s soft power at a time when government is seeking to increase its regional influence, particularly in the Pacific
Australia's PNG step-up in a tumultuous year
Originally published in The Australian Financial Review
Japan can teach Australia how to carefully handle China
Scott Morrison needs to study Shinzo Abe's resolve.
Originally published in Nikkei Asian Review
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