China’s currency is on the rise. Buoyed by the economy’s outperformance and global trade impact, policy steps over the past few years have thrust the renminbi onto the global stage. Is the renminbi going to climb to become a major reserve currency? Not so fast.
International Economy Program Director Mark Thirlwell is a contributor to a CIGI-Brookings Institution project on National Perspectives on Global Leadership. The seventh instalment of the Soundings Series, looking at the Los Cabos G20 Summit, is now available for download here.
This is an extract from The China choice: why America should share power by Hugh White, published by Black Inc. The China choice will be released on Monday 6 August, RRP $29.99, and is also available as an ebook. http://www.blackincbooks.com/books/china-choice
In this 2009 Lowy Institute working paper, Mark Thirlwell looks at some initial lessons from the 2007-2008 crisis about living in a resource-constrained world. A revised version of this working paper was published in the journal Survival in June-July 2009: A New Era of Food Insecurity? By Alan
On 30 June 2012, Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood was sworn in as Egypt’s first ever democratically elected President. In an effort to address some of the questions raised by this development, we are republishing, with a new foreword, the Muslim Brotherhood chapter from the 2008 Lowy
Australia's political relationship with China is far less developed than its economic relationship. This is detrimental to Australia's interests because China is not merely an economic power but also a crucial political and security actor in the region. Underdeveloped political and strategic
The eighth annual Lowy Institute Poll reports the results of a nationally representative opinion survey of 1,005 Australian adults conducted in Australia between 26 March and 10 April 2012 using mobile and landline telephones. It also reports the results of a parallel survey conducted in New
Final submissions in Parliament's Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Inquiry into Australia's overseas representation were published by the Committee on 8 May 2012. In their final submissions, Alex Oliver and Fergus Hanson answer further questions from
East Asia Program Director Linda Jakobson examines China's expanding role in Africa and the implications for China-EU relations in 'Europe and China: Strategic Partners or Rivals?', a book edited by Dr Roland Vogt and published by Hong Kong University Press. In the chapter, Jakobson and Jacob Wood
Over the second half of 2011, the world economy seemed to be sliding inexorably towards another major financial crisis. In the event, actions by an aggressive European Central Bank managed to halt the slide to Eurogeddon. But a fragile world economy remains dangerously vulnerable to adverse shocks
In every era there are inflection points which require long-established institutions to re-evaluate their goals, strategy, structure and resource allocations to ensure their future health and relevance. The Australian Defence Force (ADF) is no exception
The 2012 general elections in Papua New Guinea are likely to be marred by violence. The increased financial bounty at stake, the enhanced value of political office, the proliferation of weapons, and pressures on PNG’s Electoral Commission, Defence Force and police combine to highlight security
This report is the first time the rapidly growing ediplomacy effort at the US State Department has been mapped. It reveals State now employs over 150 full-time ediplomacy personnel working in 25 different nodes at Headquarters. More than 900 people use ediplomacy at US missions abroad. The
The Lowy Institute Indonesia Poll reports the results of the Institute’s second opinion poll in Indonesia. The findings challenge many assumptions about Indonesia on issues like attitudes towards Australia and the United States, openness to foreign investment, democracy, trust in other countries,
The application of the death penalty by Australia's Southeast Asian neighbours recurrently strains bilateral relations. Lowy Institute Research Fellow Dr Dave McRae examines Indonesia's stance on the death penalty and the prospects for abolition in Australia's key regional neighbour.
Is a dangerous nuclear competition emerging between the two most populous nations? In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Fiona Cunningham and Rory Medcalf warn of nuclear dangers as China and India rise. The authors call for a strategic stability dialogue embedded in mutual respect, to ensure possible
The Lowy Institute’s first Fiji Poll was a wide-ranging survey of public opinion in Fiji about the performance of Fiji’s military-led government and Fiji’s relations with the world. Questions focused on the implementation of government promises, the role of Fiji’s military, and democracy.
In this Lowy Institute paper Dr Steven Casey explores the Obama administration’s approach to alliances as the United States experiences relative economic and military decline in the context of a changing security environment in the Asia-Pacific region
In the Food for Thought event in Canberra on 8 August 2011, National Security Fellow Ellie Fogarty launched a report that analyses what Australia’s national interests in Antarctica are, and considers how they might best be protected and advanced in the future. She was joined in a panel discussion
Long-term threats to Australia’s dormant claim to 42 per cent of Antarctica include growing interest in the continent’s resource potential from such major powers as China and Russia. The paper recommends policy changes and capability investments to protect Australia’s interests.
Largely as a consequence of military deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan, Australia has developed strong defence ties with key GCC countries. But with these deployments coming to an end, the future is in question
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commits developed countries to provide climate financing to developing nations, to address climate impacts on food security, water supply, agriculture and public health. But despite recent commitments of 'fast start' climate funding
One of the central pillars of global climate change negotiations is the need to improve access for developing countries to funding and technical resources. But efforts to establish effective mechanisms for climate financing are complex, with governments trying to balance the accountability required
The seventh annual Lowy Poll surveys the Australian public on new questions covering attitudes towards the US alliance and the war in Afghanistan, opinions on basing US forces in Australia, WikiLeaks, foreign aid, and the intervention in Libya.
The nationally representative poll also repeated
China is not only Australia's largest trading partner, but is also an increasingly important supplier of capital. In a Lowy Institute Analysis, John Larum draws on a series of interviews with Chinese investors and their advisors to look at their attitude towards investing in Australia and
In this Policy Brief, Lowy Institute Non-resident Senior Fellow, Professor Alan Dupont argues that Australia has failed to grasp the full implications of China’s meteoric rise or the risk of conflict in the Western Pacific. He calls for a coherent, national approach to China, one that is informed
The ANZUS alliance is emerging as an important alliance for stability in the Asia-Pacific region but the US must understand the implications Australian defence planning will have on the future alliance. In this Lowy Institute Analysis, US Army Colonel John Angevine writes that Australia’s current
One important outcome of the Great Recession has been the rapid accumulation of government debt in many of the world’s developed economies. This growing debt burden represents a potential threat to economic stability, and as a result, the focus of fiscal policy is now shifting from stimulus to
Ashok Malik and Rory Medcalf argue that Indian foreign policy is being shaped increasingly by three dynamic aspects of civil society: business, the Indian diaspora and the aggressive Indian news media. Indian diplomacy needs to adapt to these new realities. And foreign nations need to understand
In this Policy Brief, Jenny Hayward-Jones, Director of The Myer Foundation Melanesia Program at the Lowy Institute, argues that Australia should redefine its relationship with Fiji to focus more sharply on Australia’s long-term interests
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Non-resident Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan explores what the outcomes of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, will mean for both key domestic actors in Lebanese politics, most notably Hizbullah, and
To cope with a rising China, other powers will need a close understanding of Chinese strategic culture. This paper seeks to identify the enduring features of Chinese strategic culture, assess their role in Chinese policy and consider their implications for the future posture and responses of the
In this obituary essay in Foreign Policy magazine, Lowy Institute International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf pays tribute to K Subrahmanyam, independent India’s leading strategic thinker, who passed away on 2 February 2011. Subrahmanyam strongly influenced India’s decision both to
In the last decade, Australia has quietly and quickly become a close security partner to Japan, second only to the United States. For Australia, no security relationship outside the foundational alliance with the United States has deepened more in this same period. Despite changes of government and
With boat arrivals featuring prominently on the Australian political agenda, 2010-2011 saw a flurry of policy proposals focused on mitigating this trend. This report situates recent developments in Australian asylum policy within an international context and considers the efficacy of restrictive
Cate Sumner and Tim Lindsey explore how the Islamic courts in Indonesia have embraced reform within a judicial system notorious for corruption and incompetence, taking the lead in efforts to deliver decisions that are more accessible, transparent and fair.
On Friday 5 November, two leading commentators on US politics and foreign policy, Dr Michael Fullilove and Daniel Flitton, provided some immediate analysis of the mid-term results as part of the Lowy Institute’s ‘Food for Thought’ program in Melbourne
In recent decades China has become a far more active and effective player in, and contributor to, the United Nations. However, according to Dr Michael Fullilove, the limits of this enhanced engagement are becoming clear. Dr Fullilove emphasises that while the West might advocate that China become a
This Lowy Institute Analysis by Julienne McKay and Dr Katherine Lepani, exploring the role of demand-responsive mechanisms in health services delivery in Papua New Guinea, accompanies the Policy Brief, 'Revitalising Papua New Guinea's health system
The scale of public health challenges in Papua New Guinea heightens the need to improve management capacity and ensure value for money. Proposed changes to health facility financing and plans to replace drug supply system open up possibilities for wider use of delivery mechanisms previously
Australia’s military forces have often acted as effective agents of international policy. But while defence diplomacy has complemented Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade efforts, this has often been due to ad hoc coordination and personal initiative
Ediplomacy is no longer a boutique extra. Serious foreign ministries are embracing it to do their jobs more effectively and efficiently. Australia’s own Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has a lot of catching up to do. It also has a lot to gain.
Does Australia understand the leaders of our region? Is our $1.4bn in scholarship funding reaching the right people? There is good reason to believe that leaders matter, and that they are particularly important in developing countries. This 2010 Lowy Institute Analysis presents the results of the
Did the 2010 US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) get it right? In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that – contrary to what has been widely assumed – the NPR does not significantly reduce the role of nuclear weapons in America’s strategic posture. In particular, it
While Chinese foreign investment into Australia has been the subject of a great deal of controversy, investment flows moving in the other direction have received much less attention. In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, John Larum reviews Australian foreign direct investment into China and discusses