Reflecting on the repeated failure of the Doha Round of international trade negotiations, this paper takes a look back at the stresses and strains that afflicted an earlier globalisation episode to look for lessons about the current difficulties facing economic liberalisation
Since the 1997-98 Asian crisis, the investment decline in East Asia, outside of China, combined with the falling in public and private savings in the United States, has contributed to the surge in global current account imbalances.
In Pitfalls of Papua: understanding the conflict and its place in Australia-Indonesia relations, Dr Rodd McGibbon calls on the Australian government to engage more actively in the public debate in Australia over the Papua conflict
The 2006 Lowy Institute Poll involved parallel public opinion surveys in Australia and Indonesia. The report contains responses from both countries to questions on foreign and security policy, global affairs, and each other.
The 2006 poll was conducted in partnership with the Chicago Council on
In a Lowy Institute Analysis, Mark Thirlwell argues that while the suspension of negotiations in late July may or may not mark the end of the Doha Round, it will almost certainly mark a watershed for the international trading system.
After years of economic underperformance, the Indian economic model has been transformed, and with it, India's growth performance. So much so that the last two years have brought both a widespread rethink on India’s prospects and a wave of foreign portfolio investment.
In a Lowy Institute Analysis, Dr Malcolm Cook evaluates Prime Minister Koizumi's legacy for Japanese politics and international policy. Koizumi has rebuilt the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, moved the Japanese political system significantly to the right and reprioritised Japan's international
In this Policy Brief, Dr Michael Fullilove examines how the Australian Government implements its stated opposition to the death penalty. He finds that while Australia is an effective advocate for Australian nationals on death row, we do less than we could in relation to universal abolition.
In this Lowy Institute Paper, Dr Michael Fullilove argues that national diasporas are like ‘“world wide webs”’, with dense, interlocking strands spanning the globe and binding different individuals, institutions and countries together. The Paper follows those strands and describes the webs
In this Working Paper in International Economics, the Lowy Institute's Professor Warwick McKibbin and Peter Wilcoxen write that to succeed in reducing carbon dioxide emissions, a climate policy must establish credible long-term incentives for investments in new energy sector capital and in research
This is a path-breaking examination of the potential implications for national and regional security that stem from the emerging non-traditional security challenge ‘climate change’ – especially for Australia and its Asia-Pacific neighbourhood
In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, Anthony Bubalo, Michael Fullilove and Mark Thirlwell explore the prospect and implications of Iran's using oil as a weapon in its current confrontation with the international community over the nuclear issue
In a Lowy Institute Paper entitled The Paramount Power: China and the Countries of Southeast Asia, Dr Milton Osborne examines how China's relations with Southeast Asia have dramatically changed for the better in the last ten years
The unrest in Honiara of 18-19 April underlines the fragility of Solomon Islands as well as the sheer difficulty of rebuilding weak states. The background to and key features of the Australian-led Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) were set out in this March 2006 Analysis by Dr
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Anthony Bubalo and Michael Fullilove examine the likely trajectory of efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear question, an issue that is likely to lead the international foreign policy agenda in 2006.
The emergence of China as an economic power has important implications for energy use and environmental outcomes at the local, regional and global levels. China is currently the world's third largest energy producer and the second largest energy consumer.
This paper is the best short history of the Australia-US alliance. In this paper Peter Edwards AM places the alliance in historical perspective and considers the challenges faced by the alliance in the post-September 11 world.
Australia has, perhaps, no closer or more complicated a bilateral relationship than that with Papua New Guinea. Australia is deeply entwined with its nearest neighbour and has a major stake in its future
In this 2005 Lowy Institute Paper, Mark Thirlwell surveys the changing international trade landscape. The inability of policymakers to deliver the Doha Round has become a powerful symbol of the growing strains on the multilateral trading system
The world is in the midst of a significant demographic transition with important implications for the macroeconomic performance of the global economy. This paper summarises the key features of the current and projected future demographic changes that are likely to have macroeconomic effects.&
In a Lowy Institute Issues Brief, former Australian Governor on the Board of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Lance Joseph, addresses nuclear proliferation dangers of today and how these might be addressed.
The world is in the midst of a significant demographic transition with important implications for the macroeconomic performance of the global economy. This paper summarises the key features of the current and projected future demographic changes that are likely to have macroeconomic effects. It then
In a new Working Paper in International Economics, Professor Warwick McKibbin and Alison Stegman write that assumptions about carbon emissions per person lie behind many future climate projections as well as being the basis of a number of policy proposals.
The objective of this paper is to examine whether financial development leads to economic growth or vice versa in the small, open economy of Malaysia. We argue that the results obtained from cross-sectional studies are not able to address this issue satisfactorily and highlight the importance of
The 2005 Lowy Institute Poll was, at the time, the most comprehensive single survey ever taken of Australian public opinion on foreign policy. The report, Australians Speak 2005: Public Opinion and Foreign Policy, contains insights on issues ranging from Australian defence policy to relations with
Data book 2005 contains the raw data collected by the Lowy Institute Poll. It supports the report of the first edition of the Poll, entitled Australians Speak 2005: Public Opinion and Foreign Policy, which is also available for download
September 11 2001 and the Bali Bombing in November 2002 evoked images of a militant Islamist wave sweeping the globe from the Middle East, radicalising once peaceful Muslim communities around the world
This paper discusses the importance of asset markets and financial flows in general equilibrium models. Asset markets and financial flows play an important role in the adjustment process to economic shocks and policy changes.
Indonesia faces a number of important challenges both in the short run and in the longer run. The world economy is currently growing robustly but a number of uncertainties cloud the economic outlook. A strong global economy is being challenged by higher oil prices.
In Sensible climate policy Professor Warwick McKibbin criticises the Kyoto Protocol that had just entered into force in February 2005. He predicts that the policy would not succeed in reducing emissions and argued that it was a mistake to continue to follow the ‘targets and timetables’ approach
India's exploding demand for energy is confronting New Delhi with two important dilemmas. India's internal dilemma is that to satisfy its energy needs, it must balance reform and expansion of its energy sector with the need to avoid alienating key domestic constituencies.
Anthony Bubalo and Mark Thirlwell examine China and India's growing thirst for imported oil, particularly from the Middle East, and consider some of the possible longer term strategic implications associated with this trend.
Japan emerged from World War II as the only country in the world to completely renounce war as a sovereign right. Despite this proscription, Japan’s self-defence forces form a large, technologically advanced military power
Anthony Bubalo, research fellow, argues that Yasser Arafat's death could have longer term positive implications for both Palestinian political reform and efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but in the short term the impact will be more limited. Arafat's immediate successors will not
Although there are significant differences in style and substance between George Bush and John Kerry, the similarities in foreign policy terms are more striking than is sometimes understood. From Australia's perspective, the fundamentals of our relationship with the US are excellent and the alliance
This Issues Brief by Professor Warwick McKibbin and others explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances.