Publications

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Linking growth and poverty reduction in Papua New Guinea

Recent impressive economic growth has helped many Papua New Guineans escape poverty. Those lifted from poverty retain strong connections to the economy, its active participants and the government. For those whose connections are weak or absent, economic growth provides no obvious reward. To increase

By Laurence Chandy

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External imbalances and the G20

In a new Policy Brief, Stephen Grenville argues that the Global Financial Crisis has changed the form of the external imbalances problem, but not removed it.

By Stephen Grenville

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Message to the G20: Defeating protectionism begins at home

On 16 November last year, G20 leaders made a commitment to resist protectionism. According to the World Bank, by the end of February 2009, seventeen of the twenty had already ‘implemented 47 measures whose effect is to restrict trade

By Mark Thirlwell

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Australia poisoned alumni: international education and the costs to Australia

In this new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Executive Director Michael Wesley analyses the multi-faceted international student debate. It canvasses the dynamics of the international student industry and the social, economic and criminal issues faced by international students during their time in

By Michael Wesley

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A tighter net: strengthening the Proliferation Security Initiative

In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, non-proliferation scholar Emma Belcher urges practical steps for WMD non-proliferation at sea

By Emma Belcher

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How Defence can contribute to Australia national security strategy

As the Federal Government prepares to develop the successor document to its inaugural 2008 National Security Statement, this new Lowy Institute Analysis considers what needs to be done to improve the oft-quoted whole-of-government approach to national security, and where Government can draw

By Nicholas Floyd

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China: stumbling through the Pacific

A new Policy Brief on China's aid program in the Pacific provides the most detailed picture yet of China's approach to aid-giving in the region.

By Fergus Hanson

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The global financial crisis and international migration: implications for Australia

Khalid Koser, Director of the New Threats and Human Security Programme at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, examines the impact of the global financial crisis on international migration, the challenges to Australia of these effects, and how national policy should most appropriately respond.&

By Khalid Koser

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Mass poverty in Asia and the GFC

In addition to the current Global Financial Crisis (GFC), there is a second global crisis: long-term poverty in the third world.

By Peter McCawley

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Between defiance and détente: Iran’s 2009 presidential election and its impact on foreign policy

In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Iranian researcher Mahmoud Alinejad looks ahead to the Iranian presidential election on 12 June. He assesses the four candidates’ prospects and analyses the potential impact of the election on key aspects of Iran’s foreign policy, in particular the nuclear

By Mahmoud Alinejad

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Fiji: the flailing state

The abrogation of Fiji's constitution could precipitate an economic collapse in Fiji, jeopardising regional stability and Australia's interests

By Jenny Hayward-Jones

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A focused force: Australia defence priorities in the Asian Century

Hugh White calls for Australia to abandon the 'Balanced Force' concept and refocus its military on managing strategic risks related to the rise of China

By Hugh White

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Refining the G-20 agenda

The G-20 Leaders will meet in London in April, faced by the most serious economic downturn for seventy years. The London agenda bears two heavy burdens

By Stephen Grenville

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Nobody's client: the reawakening of Iraqi sovereignty

In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Lydia Khalil explores the growing confidence of Iraq's government under Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki.

By Lydia Khalil

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The economic and environmental effects of border tax adjustments for climate change policy

For the foreseeable future, climate change policy will be considerably more stringent in some countries than in others. In high-cost countries, there will be political pressure to impose border adjustments, or 'green tariffs', on imports from countries with little or no climate policy and low energy

By Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen

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Confronting reality: responding to war criminals living in Australia

In this Policy Brief, Fergus Hanson looks at the Australian government's current approach to suspected war criminals living here

By Fergus Hanson

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Squaring the triangle: an Australian perspective on Asian security minilateralism

In a paper published by the US National Bureau of Asian Research, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf identifies Australia’s criteria for taking part in 'minilateral' cooperative security talks and arrangements in Asia. He applies these criteria to help explain the durability of

By Rory Medcalf

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Shared challenges and solutions: Australia unique contribution to the future of African development

As part of its commitment to increase spending on overseas development assistance, the Australian government has announced a substantial re-engagement with Africa

By Joel Negin, Glenn Denning

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Putting the genie back in the bottle: ruling regimes and the new media in the Arab world

In a new Lowy Institute Analysis Australian journalist David Hardaker examines the growth and impact of the 'new media' - primarily the internet and satellite television - in the Arab world

By David Hardaker

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Ambition: the emerging foreign policy of the Rudd Government

In a new Lowy Institute Analysis entitled 'Ambition: the emerging foreign policy of the Rudd Government', Lowy Institute Executive Director Allan Gyngell explores what we have learned about the Rudd Government's emerging foreign policy, about the Prime Minister's own contributions to it and what

By Allan Gyngell

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Australia, East Asia and the current financial crisis

In a new Analysis, Dr Stephen Grenville argues that as the international crisis begins to impinge more strongly on Asia, one of the potential protective responses – the Chiang Mai Initiative – needs some tweaking to make it politically acceptable for countries which need it. Australia might be

By Stephen Grenville

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The sting of climate change

Climate change is not only affecting where people live and prosper but also where mosquitoes do. This is bad news for northern Australia and Australia's northern neighbours. In a new policy brief, Dr Sarah Potter, a malaria research scientist, analyses how climate change will likely affect the

By Sarah Potter

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Expecting the unexpected

To estimate the emissions reductions and costs of a climate policy, analysts usually compare a policy scenario with a baseline scenario of future economic conditions without the policy. Both scenarios require assumptions about the future course of numerous factors such as population growth,

By Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen, Adele Morris

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Hope or glory? The presidential election, US foreign policy and Australia

What is at stake in a US presidential election in terms of American foreign policy? How might the temperament and world-views of the respective candidates be interpreted? In this paper Dr Michael Fullilove compares and contrasts the foreign policies of Barack Obama and John McCain in the 2008

By Michael Fullilove

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Zealous democrats: Islamism and democracy in Egypt, Indonesia and Turkey

The question is often asked 'What will Islamists do to democracy?' But it seems equally valid to ask 'What might democracy do to Islamists?' Anthony Bubalo, Greg Fealy and Whit Mason examine three different Islamist movements

By Anthony Bubalo, Gregory Fealy, Whit Mason

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The 2008 Lowy Institute Poll: Australia and the world

The fourth annual Lowy Institute Poll surveys a nationally representative sample of Australians on a range of foreign policy issues and contains a number of new questions. These cover attitudes towards Japanese whaling, foreign investment in Australia, China, the US presidential election, climate

By Fergus Hanson

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Beyond good governance

Australian aid has not been effective in helping the Pacific Islands region make significant progress in meeting the Millennium Development Goals

By Jenny Hayward-Jones

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Bad moon not rising: the myth of the Shi'a crescent

Accusations that a Shi'a crescent is emerging in the Arab world following the rise of a Shi'a government in Iraq and the actions of Hizbullah in Lebanon, have provoked much discussion and highlighted fears of Iran's co-religionists gaining political power at the expense of the traditional Sunni

By Rodger Shanahan

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Nuclear security: what else can Australia do?

Nuclear dangers are growing, yet so is a new 'realistic idealist' campaign for nuclear disarmament

By Rory Medcalf

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Restraining nuclear arms in the Asian century: an agenda for Australia

In this Analysis, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf provides background and detail for his proposals for renewed Australian activism on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament issues, introduced in the Policy Brief 'Nuclear security: what else can Australia do

By Rory Medcalf

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Into Africa

The international resource boom has spurred a hunt for new mineral and hydrocarbon reserves, and an important new frontier in this search is Sub-Saharan Africa

By Roger Donnelly, Benjamin Ford

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After Doha: the search for Plan B

The Doha round of world trade talks has collapsed. After the negotiations were suspended back in July 2006, Mark Thirlwell wrote that – regardless of the ultimate outcome of the Round – the era of giant, set-piece trade negotiations like Doha and its predecessor, the Uruguay Round, was over. The

By Mark Thirlwell

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So what? Matching policy to Australian interests in West Asia

In a new Lowy institute Policy Brief, West Asia Program Director Anthony Bubalo argues that the evolution of Australian policy in West Asia (the Middle East and Southwest Asia) has lagged behind the maturation of Australian interests in this part of the world.

By Anthony Bubalo

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China can grow and still help prevent the tragedy of the carbon dioxide commons

Under reasonable assumptions, China could achieve parity in living standard with Western Europe by 2100, and India by 2150. Climate change, however, may be a key obstacle preventing such a convergence

By Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen, Wing Thye Woo

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Building on Kyoto: towards a realistic global climate agreement

Although the Kyoto Protocol has not been effective at reducing emissions, it has been very effective at demonstrating a few important lessons about the form future international climate agreements should take

By Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen

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The dragon in the Pacific: more opportunity than threat

China runs an opaque aid program in the Pacific that has fuelled suspicions about its motives in the region and that undermines efforts to improve accountability, governance and stability

By Fergus Hanson

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The dragon looks south

China refuses to release figures on the size of its aid program. In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, Fergus Hanson takes a region-wide look at the scale of China’s aid program, revealing a dramatic increase in aid pledges since 2005

By Fergus Hanson

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What does a free-trade area of the Asia-Pacific mean to China

A Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) has been proposed as a long-term prospect by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC

By Warwick McKibbin, Tingsong Jiang

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Why the Gulf matters: crafting an Australian security policy for the Gulf

The imminent withdrawal of Australian combat forces from Iraq does not mean that the Arabian Gulf is peripheral to Australia's strategic interests.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Beijing's Olympic challenge

With the troubled Olympic Torch coming to Canberra next week, the Beijing Olympics and what it means for China will be centre stage in Australia

By John Bowan

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Nuclear power in Southeast Asia: Implications for Australia and non-proliferation

Several Southeast Asian countries continue seriously to assess the feasibility of nuclear energy, despite the 2011 Fukushima disaster. This publication explores the reasons and prospects for such interest, as well as implications for Australia and nuclear non-proliferation.

By Andrew Symon

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Hesitating on the brink of partnership

In this piece for the East-West Center, Washington, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that Australia and India are hesitating at the brink of real partnership in their strategic relations. It will take sustained political will on both sides over the next few years to bring

By Rory Medcalf

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Central banks and capital flows

Sudden capital outflows were at the heart of the 1997-8 Asian Crisis. Ten years later, capital flows are back on the policy agenda, but in a very different context. The countries of East Asia are now getting more inflows than they can effectively absorb and the upward pressure on exchange rates is

By Stephen Grenville

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World wide webs: Diasporas and the international system

In this Lowy Institute Paper, Dr Michael Fullilove argues that national diasporas are like ‘world wide webs’, with dense, interlocking strands spanning the globe and binding different individuals, institutions and countries together.

By Michael Fullilove

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India should play its part

In this article in new Indian publication Pragati ('Progress'), International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that Australia alone cannot do all the running in building a strategic partnership with India

By Rory Medcalf

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‘The Emerging Global Order’, by Russell Trood

To mark the recent passing of Russell Trood, the Lowy Institute is proud to present his 2008 Lowy Institute Paper on Australian foreign policy in the 21st century

By Russell Trood

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'The end of the Vasco da Gama era'

The new Australian Government will have to navigate some difficult diplomatic waters in a world where power is shifting away from unipolarity and towards an Asia-centric multipolar order

By Coral Bell

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Geeing up the G-20

In this Policy Brief, Malcolm Cook and Mark Thirlwell make the case for a greater role for the G-20 in the international economic architecture

By Malcolm Cook, Mark Thirlwell

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Enmeshed: Australia and Southeast Asia fisheries

Southeast Asia's oceans are fast running out of fish, putting the livelihoods of up to 100 million people at risk, leading to more illegal incursions into Australia's northern fisheries and putting the future of shared stocks between Australia and Southeast Asia at grave risk

By Meryl Williams

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Looking after Australians overseas

As the number of Australians travelling and living overseas continues to increase, Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) has been forced to devote a growing proportion of its resources to providing consular services to Australian travellers

By Hugh White

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