Publications

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Beware letting inexact science of modelling drive policy

Originally published in The Australian

By Stephen Grenville

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Helicopter money is not what you think

Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Stephen Grenville

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China's coronavirus aid to Pacific islands is part of geopolitical game

Beijing is using health care to improve relations in strategically significant area. Originally published in the Nikkei Asian Review.

By Jonathan Pryke, Richard McGregor

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Why Xi will shelter behind the great wall of secrecy

Beijing will oppose an international investigation into the pandemic because accountability would put the one-party system in the dock. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Richard McGregor

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Washington could win hearts and minds in Iran

Originally published in The Australian

By Rodger Shanahan

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How to win the war: some valuable lessons from history

Comparison with wartime sacrifices might put the necessary inconveniences into perspective. Nonresident Fellow Stephen Grenville writes on COVID-19. Originally published in The Australian

By Stephen Grenville

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The World After COVID

How will the COVID-19 pandemic change the world? Lowy Institute experts provide their analysis

By Ben Bland, Michael Fullilove, Bonnie S Glaser, Stephen Grenville, Natasha Kassam, Lydia Khalil, Hervé Lemahieu , Richard McGregor, Annmaree O’Keeffe, Alex Oliver, Jonathan Pryke, Roland Rajah

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Helicopter money’s unearned popularity

Originally published in the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum

By Stephen Grenville

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Coronavirus: Global giants stumble while agile nations inspire

Lowy Institute Executive Director Michael Fullilove writes on the ways COVID-19 will alter some of the patterns of international life. Originally published in The Australian

By Michael Fullilove

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How the virus could stagger Asia's giants

COVID-19 looks set to hit the emerging world hard. For Australia, what happens in India and Indonesia could be most consequential. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Roland Rajah

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The balance between medicine and economics

Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Stephen Grenville asks if the policy response to Covid-19 strikes the right balance in the debate between epidemiologists and economists, moderated by the public-relations experts. Originally published in The Australian

By Stephen Grenville

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The government's bazooka is biggest, not the RBA's

Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Stephen Grenville evaluates the RBA's response to COVID-19. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Stephen Grenville

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China is rewriting coronavirus history and nobody will stop it

In an opinion piece published in the Nikkei Asian Review, Natasha Kassam argues that China has leapt on the opportunity to shape the global narrative about its response to the coronavirus as other countries grapple to manage the crisis

By Natasha Kassam

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West must face its viral demons

It may be the global politics of the pandemic, rather than COVID-19 itself, that proves our undoing. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Hervé Lemahieu

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Vital to focus on fiscal policy as recession inevitable

It goes without saying that the medical response to the pandemic should have the highest policy priority ... On the economics of the pandemic, initial reactions have been quickly outdated. Originally published in The Australian

By Stephen Grenville

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The RBA's job is to back banks, not bail out gamblers

It’s quite a while since I was at the Reserve Bank, but one of my tasks there was to draft replies to letters received. So let me try my hand at responding to Christopher Joye’s "Virus gets upper hand in battle against central banks" (AFR, March 13). Originally published in the Australian

By Stephen Grenville

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Avoiding the wrong lessons on aid and corruption

Is development aid an effective solution to lifting countries out of poverty? Roland Rajah, Director of the International Economy Program, and Research Fellow Alexandre Dayant write on aid and corruption. Originally published in the Devpolicy Blog

By Roland Rajah, Alexandre Dayant

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Central bank reputations at risk from impossible targets

Central banks around the world are caught in the same bind: inflation is below their target. Originally published in The Australian

By Stephen Grenville

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Paranoid leaders hoping repression can lead to stability

This is an edited extract from the Lowy Institute Analysis ‘The Path of Least Resilience: Autocratic Rule and External Powers In The Middle East’ by Anthony Bubalo. The extract first appeared in The Australian

By Anthony Bubalo

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The Path of Least Resilience: Autocratic Rule and External Powers in the Middle East

The examples of Egypt and Saudi Arabia show the risks in betting on the stability of autocratic regimes in the region.

By Anthony Bubalo

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An address by Admiral Philip S. Davidson on the United States' Interests in the Indo-Pacific

On 13 February the 25th Commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Philip S. Davidson, delivered an address on the United States' interests in the Indo-Pacific at the Lowy Institute

By Philip S. Davidson

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Joe Biden's victory for normal

History is against a win for the former vice president in November. But you can't blame allies for hoping that yet another shock awaits. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Daniel Flitton

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Middle Powers Will Determine the Future of the Asian Order

In the Ambassador's Brief, Herve Lemahieu describes how the changing balance of power in Asia is setting the stage for prolonged great power competition. As the US-led rules-based order decays, the question is what regional order – if any – will replace it

By Hervé Lemahieu

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What are the Right Encryption Laws for Australia?

On March 5, 2020, Lowy Institute Research Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan was joined in conversation with Dr James Renwick SC to discuss possible models for reconciling the legitimate interests of individuals, organisations, and business, and intelligence, police and integrity agencies

By James Renwick

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Submission to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Review of Australia's Development Program

A submission to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Review of Australian's Development Program

By Jonathan Pryke

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Morrison Struggles Amidst His Bushfire Response

Originally published in the Council on Foreign Relations

By Daniel Flitton

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2019 Australia-Papua New Guinea Emerging Leaders Dialogue Outcomes Report

The Lowy Institute hosted the seventh Australia–Papua New Guinea Emerging Leaders Dialogue on 5 and 6 November 2019 in Wewak, Papua New Guinea

By Shane McLeod, Jonathan Pryke

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The coronavirus outbreak has exposed the deep flaws of Xi’s autocracy

China’s political system was meant to be all-powerful, capable of dealing with any crisis. The death of one doctor has shaken that claim. Originally published in The Guardian.

By Richard McGregor

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Taiwan Flashpoint: What Australia Can Do to Stop the Coming Taiwan Crisis

Australian diplomacy could ease rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait, if Australian policymakers rediscovered an appetite for involvement in the flashpoint

By Brendan Taylor

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Politics comes first in China's agony

In an opinion piece originally published in the Financial Review, Natasha Kassam argues that China's biggest concern in dealing with the new coronavirus is maintaining stability and keeping its grip on information

By Natasha Kassam

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The New Wave of Middle-East Media Repression

In an opinion piece published in Project Syndicate, Lydia Khalil describes how the governments of Egypt and Saudi Arabia have suppressed unfavorable information to hold on to power. But the experiences of Iraq and Lebanon suggest that this approach has limits in political systems that depend on

By Lydia Khalil

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How I Lost My Faith in America

The world still wants to believe in the US. But it needs some help. Originally published in The Atlantic

By Michael Fullilove

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How the coronavirus crisis has brewed a ‘revolt of the professionals’ in China

Doctors, scientists, lawyers and journalists are pushing back against Communist Party structures in a rare backlash against suppression of information. If Beijing can learn to leave them to do their jobs, that would be real reform, akin to a mini-revolution. Originally published in South China

By Richard McGregor

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How Beijing's silence helped spread the virus

Beijing's blaming of local officials and signs on a clampdown on information about the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak has tragic echoes of the mishandling of the SARs virus more than a decade ago, writes Richard McGregor. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Richard McGregor

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Soft power goes up in smoke

A unique connection to nature is at the heart of our international appeal. Foot-dragging on climate is squandering it. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Hervé Lemahieu

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As Wuhan virus spreads, Taiwan has no say at WHO

Chinese pressure keeps Taipei out of international organizations—putting everyone at more risk. Originally published in Foreign Policy

By Natasha Kassam

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Anchoring the Indo-Pacific

A report by Premesha Saha, Ben Bland, and Evan A. Laksmana published by the Observer Research Foundation.

By Ben Bland, Evan A Laksmana

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US killing of Soleimani hands Iran a new opportunity to expand power

Originally published in ABC Online

By Lydia Khalil

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Behind the News: Inside China Global Television Network

Can China’s television network be an effective soft power tool

By Merriden Varrall

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Taiwan’s 2020 elections

China has lost the battle for public opinion in Taiwan

By Natasha Kassam, Richard McGregor

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A vital cog in the leader's great plan

Originally published in The Sunday Times

By Richard McGregor

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PNG must respect voters and help form world’s newest nation

Originally published in The Australian

By Shane McLeod, Jonathan Pryke

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Being a video vigilante can serve the greater good, but that doesn't mean it's always right

Originally published in ABC News

By Daniel Flitton

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China’s Economic Choices

China’s economic growth has fallen to its slowest rate since 1990, and this deceleration looks set to continue unless China implements the kinds of deep reforms behind the successful economic transitions of Japan and Korea

By David Orsmond

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The 2017 Lowy Lecture: Then-UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson

On 27 July the UK Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, the Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP, delivered the 2017 Lowy Lecture at Sydney Town Hall

By Boris Johnson

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2020 Will Be a Watershed Year for the Global Economy

Originally published in the Council of Councils' Global Outlook 2020: The Economy

By Roland Rajah

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Why the day of the party is done

Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Sam Roggeveen

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International Public Broadcasting: A Missed Opportunity For Projecting Australia’s Soft Power

Australia’s depleted international broadcasting is impairing the projection of Australia’s soft power at a time when government is seeking to increase its regional influence, particularly in the Pacific

By Annmaree O’Keeffe, Chris Greene

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Australia's PNG step-up in a tumultuous year

Originally published in The Australian Financial Review

By Shane McLeod, Jonathan Pryke

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Japan can teach Australia how to carefully handle China

Scott Morrison needs to study Shinzo Abe's resolve. Originally published in Nikkei Asian Review

By Richard McGregor

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