Australia can still deliver for the Pacific on climate despite COP31 compromise

Australia's decision to cede hosting rights for COP31 to Türkiye has weakened its influence over the UN climate summit. But Canberra can still secure meaningful outcomes for the Pacific through strategic leadership and targeted investments, according to a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief.

The paper’s authors, Dr Melanie Pill, Georgia Hammersley and Alexandre Dayant, argue that Australia's compromise with Türkiye, which allows Antalya to host COP31 while Australia retains control of official negotiations, has shifted the agenda-setting power away from Canberra, putting Pacific climate priorities at risk of being sidelined.

But the authors argue Australia has the tools to respond if used strategically.

The Pacific will host the traditional annual pre-COP gathering ahead of the summit. By centring Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in a visible leadership role, the pre-COP offers an opportunity to build political momentum by convening global leaders ahead of the main summit. To further maximise impact and attendance, the pre-COP must link Pacific priorities with those of other nations severely impacted by climate change.

The authors argue that the COP31 President of Negotiations, represented by Australia's Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, should use his role to ensure Pacific priorities remain firmly on the agenda at the main talks. Those priorities include urgently needed adaptation finance, continuity of statehood in the face of sea-level rise, and strong commitment to reduce fossil fuel consumption.

The authors also call for the Australian government to redirect a portion of the resources it had committed to hosting COP31 towards tangible climate action in the region and abroad. This should include contributions to regional funds but also global initiatives such as the Green Climate Fund to show Australia’s concerns also extend beyond the Pacific.

“Australia should treat the Pacific-hosted pre-COP as a strategic political moment, not a technical precursor,” the authors write.

“Canberra should work with Pacific Island governments to anchor the agenda in the lived experience of climate impacts, bringing leaders and ministers from other climate-vulnerable countries along. It should use the meeting to establish clear political signals that carry through to the main negotiations in Antalya.

“By linking Pacific priorities to those of other Small Island Developing States and highly climate-exposed developing countries, the pre-COP can be used to broaden the constituency behind issues and build the numbers needed for negotiating leverage.”

KEY FINDINGS

• Australia’s COP31 compromise with Türkiye, which allows Antalya to host this year’s global climate summit, secures Canberra’s control of official negotiations but weakens its influence over the wider summit, where practical decisions are made.
• The Pacific-hosted pre-COP is a critical opportunity to build political momentum ahead of COP31 by convening selected global leaders and placing Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in a visible leadership role to secure high-profile support for Pacific climate priorities.
• Australia can still deliver meaningful outcomes for the Pacific by aligning regional priorities with those of other climate-vulnerable countries, exercising ambitious leadership through the President of Negotiations, and redirecting hosting-related resources towards climate action in the region.

Read the full Policy Brief, After the compromise: Australia’s COP31 blueprint for the Pacific.

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