Bougainville’s ‘independence or nothing’ approach an obstacle to development

The singular focus of Bougainville’s leaders to secure independence from Papua New Guinea risks overshadowing the urgent priority of improving livelihoods, a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief warns.

The paper by Oliver Nobetau, Bougainville’s future: A roadmap for development, examines the territory’s history, the terms of its peace agreement with Papua New Guinea, and its mounting socio-economic challenges, including declining health and education systems.

Nobetau argues that while the Bougainville Peace Agreement laid the foundations for the transition from autonomy to independence in 2027, it failed to provide a roadmap for overcoming the obstacles that threaten Bougainville’s long-term prosperity.

“Prosperity is not defined by sovereignty alone, but by tangible improvements in the quality of life such as access to basic services, employment, infrastructure, and governance,” Nobetau said.

“A Bougainville that seeks to achieve independence without a meaningful foundation for development is at risk of replicating the conditions it is seeking to escape.”

To avoid this, Nobetau proposes that Bougainville and Papua New Guinea agree on a clear process for the transfer of powers to provide certainty on development and clarify their future relationship.

He also calls for a new mechanism to drive implementation of Bougainville’s development priorities.

“Together with the PNG Government, it should create, under statute, a special-purpose authority to administer development projects in Bougainville,” he said.

“The roadmap for Bougainville’s future should not be singularly defined by independence but must be grounded in development and prosperity for its people.”

KEY FINDINGS

• The Bougainville Peace Agreement established a roadmap towards autonomy and independence. Now, a new agreement is needed to guide socio-economic development and redefine the relationship between the Autonomous Bougainville Government and the Papua New Guinea Government.
   
• The Autonomous Bougainville Government should consider establishing a special independent authority responsible for implementing development projects.
   
• Capacity-building must take place within the Bougainville Public Service. The Bougainville and PNG governments need to further prescribe the process for the transfer of powers to clarify their roles in the partnership.

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