Democracy in decline: Understanding the dynamics of democratic erosion

Global democratic decline is often explained through single causes such as rising populism, weakened institutions, or economic shocks. But these explanations miss the bigger picture. Democratic decline is best understood as a systems problem, argues a new Lowy Institute Special Feature.

The special interactive tool, entitled Understanding Democratic Erosion, by Lydia Khalil and co-authors, sets out a framework showing how different drivers of erosion interact, reinforce one another, and create feedback loops that accelerate decline. It is the first time systems thinking has been applied to the challenge of democratic erosion.

While every case of democratic erosion is unique, Khalil finds all instances of democratic erosion are characterised by the following interplay:

• Conditions that provide opportunities for anti-democratic actors. Examples include economic inequality, cultural and social changes, distrust of institutions, corruption, and polarisation.
   
• Actors with the motivation, will and ability to exploit these conditions and undertake actions that erode democratic rules and norms.
   
• Pathways that allow anti-democratic actors to hollow out democracy. These include steps to gain and consolidate power, weaken established checks and balances on power, entrench divisions, cause citizens to lose faith in democracy, and engage in political violence.

“The world now has fewer democracies than autocracies for the first time in more than 20 years,” said Lydia Khalil. "Decline is rarely abrupt; it is incremental, multifaceted, and often unnoticed until advanced. Like natural erosion, the damage is gradual — if unchecked, democracy’s structural integrity is fatally compromised."

Through this engaging, easy to use tool, users will be able to unpack the complex dynamics of democratic erosion, and identify interventions that can help safeguard democracy.

Khalil also notes that “none of the dynamics examined here is inevitable or irreversible. This tool can help us understand how the erosion of democracy actually works, so that democratic societies can guard against it.”

KEY FINDINGS

• Democracies do not usually collapse abruptly; they erode due to the gradual weakening of democratic norms, guardrails, and institutions. Democratic erosion can lead to autocracy, but more often it results in lower democratic quality short of complete breakdown.
   
• All instances of democratic erosion are characterised by the following interplay: conditions that provide an opportunity; actors who exploit these conditions for their anti-democratic agenda; and causal pathways that enable these conditions and actors to hollow out democracy.
   
• We identify five reinforcing loops of democratic erosion: 1) anti-democratic actors gain and consolidate power; 2) weakening of balancing institutions, guardrails, and norms; 3) entrenched division; 4) loss of faith in democracy; and 5) support for and use of political violence.

MEDIA CONTACT
Andrew Griffits
Head of Media and Communications
media@lowyinstitute.org