Asia Pacific Security

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North Korea's emerging cyber capabilities

The cyber attack on Sony Pictures by North Korea in response to the film The Interview (which opens in Australian cinemas today; see my review) came after a series of North Korean hacks of institutions in South Korea. It appears North Korea is improving its cyber capabilities and widening its target

By Robert E Kelly

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Tough choices for Beijing following execution of Chinese ISIS militants

Despite China's long-standing diplomatic principle of non-intervention in the internal affairs of other states, Beijing cannot completely control its citizens' involvement in terrorist activity abroad. Whether China likes it or not, it is being drawn into the conflict against ISIS. China's state

By Simone van Nieuwenhuizen

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India nuclear deal needs serious parliamentary scrutiny

The Australian parliament's Joint Standing Committee on Treaties (JSCOT) will soon review the proposed treaty between Australia and India on Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy, signed by Prime Ministers Abbott and Modi in New Delhi on 5 September 2014. A 1984 cartoon on Australia's

By John Tilemann

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A dangerous history of multipolarity

The Sino-American relationship may be in decent shape. It's other countries we should be worried about. Last year, the centenary of World War I's outbreak, was a bonanza for history fans. The prior benchmark The Guns of August, published 50 years ago, was comfortably eclipsed by several authors

By Julian Snelder

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Treat terrorism like crime, not war

Earlier this week Anthony Bubalo suggested that a debate is needed about how to properly counter terrorism in liberal democracies, and more specifically how to achieve the proper balance between security and civil liberties when confronting violent extremism. This is part 1 of my response. The

By Paul G Buchanan

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Why invading North Korea is a terrible idea

Earlier this month, Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry argued for a US invasion of North Korea. Thankfully, the general response has been quite negative (here, here and here). Invading North Korea is a terrible idea, and it is worth laying out why in some detail. I do not intend this as a particular shot

By Robert E Kelly

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Police massacre threatens Philippines peace deal

The best chance for peace in Muslim Mindanao in the Philippines has just noticeably faded. The deadly clash in the early morning of Sunday 25 January between the Special Action Force of the Philippine National Police and the local command of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the

By Malcolm Cook

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Book review: The China-Pakistan Axis

In 1965, a Pakistani military delegation traipsed to Beijing in hope of replacing equipment they'd lost in the previous year's war with India. Premier Zhou Enlai, meeting the delegation, was bewildered by their request for only 14 days' ammunition. 'How can a war be fought in that short time?' Zhou

By Shashank Joshi

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Australia must push for regional adoption of Arms Trade Treaty

On 24 December 2014, two decades of campaigning and several years of negotiations culminated in the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) entering into force as an internationally legally binding instrument, having been ratified by 50 countries. The ATT aims to provide a minimum international benchmark for

By John Tilemann

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The US has abandoned a constructive strategy towards North Korea

On 2 January the US announced additional bilateral sanctions against North Korea, adding embargoes on three entities and 10 individuals. The stated reason was the alleged North Korean cyber attacks on Sony IT infrastructure late last year. In so doing, the US reinforced a trend in its policy

By Bernt Berger

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What I got wrong in 2014, and what I got right

January should be called pundit accountability month. On websites such as this, we make all sorts of predictions and forecasts, or we identify structural trends or leadership changes as critical, and so on. The temptation to choose our ideologically-preferred independent variables, or to otherwise

By Robert E Kelly

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Setting the field: Australia-India engagement in Southeast Asia

Setting the field: Australia-India engagement in Southeast Asia Danielle Rajendram Pragati 12 January 2014 Please click here for the full online text

By Danielle Rajendram

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The year India began acting east

The year India began acting east Danielle Rajendram Indian Express 26 December 2014 Please click here for the full online text

By Danielle Rajendram

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India's Modi looks east—to the Asia-Pacific

India's Modi looks east—to the Asia-Pacific Danielle Rajendram The National Interest

By Danielle Rajendram

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China: Lines blur between nuclear and conventional warfighting

China recently tested its WU-14 hypersonic device, marking its third flight test this year. These tests have elicited analysis for their impact on Beijing's military capabilities, including their potential to break through missile defences. They merit even closer attention, however, for what they

By Lora Saalman

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Korea: The 5 most important foreign policy events of 2014

The end of the year is a nice time to reflect on big events and try to prioritise them. This is often seen as a fool's errand. There are so many events, and weighing their causal significance, in real time particularly, seems impossible. Still, assigning causal weight is what we are supposed to do

By Robert E Kelly

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India's new Asia-Pacific strategy: 'Act East'

It has been a busy year for India in the Asia Pacific. From multilateral summits to bilateral diplomacy, the Modi Government has deliberately moved to step up engagement with its East and Southeast Asian partners. At this year's India-ASEAN Summit, Prime Minister Modi announced his intention to

By Danielle Rajendram

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The history of the new Chinese empire

An ambitious Chinese initiative to build a series of strategic maritime distribution centres, west to Africa and beyond, has been revealed. This is an extension of the Maritime Silk Road, which in turn complements a plan to revive the terrestrial Silk Road through central Asia. China's strategic

By Julian Snelder

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Beijing's South China Sea objective is clear: To extend control

Within China's bureaucratic system, sometimes it is in an agency's interest to compete with others, rather than coordinate, in order to advance its own bureaucratic power and receive more funding. Linda Jakobson's recent Lowy Report, China's Unpredictable Maritime Security Actors, highlights

By Jingchao Peng

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Abe's mandate: The strategic dimension

As discussed in part 1 of this post, Prime Minister Abe is likely to make the economy his first post-election priority. He wants to pull the economy out of recession and set the basis for long-term growth. But he cannot ignore national security. Abe's own deep interest, allied with that of a

By Murray McLean

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Beijing determined to advance sovereignty claims in South China Sea

While bureaucratic competition among numerous maritime actors is likely a factor that is contributing to tension and uncertainty in the South China Sea, as Linda Jakobson argues in her report China's Unpredictable Maritime Security Actors, it is probably not the biggest source of instability. Rather

By Bonnie S Glaser

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Lessons on strategic stability and SSBNs from the Cold War

Admiral Sir Mark Stanhope (Ret.) is a former First Sea Lord and Chief of Naval Staff, Royal Navy. This is an extract from a presentation to a Lowy Institute international workshop on sea-launched nuclear weapons and strategic stability, held in Singapore earlier this year. The role of nuclear

By Sir Mark Stanhope

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The propaganda war over maritime rights

'China will work with other countries to further promote a harmonious maritime order.' Even after years of studying the maritime tensions on China's periphery, I had to check that I had not misread the 9 December Xinhua dispatch quoting Liu Jieyi, China's Ambassador to the UN. These reassuring

By Linda Jakobson

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Jerry Singirok on PNG violence

By Jenny Hayward-Jones, Director of the Melanesia Program, and Mark Tamsitt, Research Associate at the Lowy Institute. Last weekend's clash between the PNDGF and police, which led to four soldiers being shot and sparked days of rioting and looting in Port Moresby, is a serious incident that needs

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Peace on the horizon for Bangsamoro?

As part of the 'Sectarianism and Religiously Motivated Violence' Masters course which I run at ANU's National Security College, students were asked to write a post on a contemporary sectarian conflict. This piece by Sophie Wolfer was judged the best of those submitted. The end of a 40-year

By Rodger Shanahan

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Jokowi Spells Out Vision for Indonesia’s “Global Maritime Nexus”

Jokowi Spells Out Vision for Indonesia’s “Global Maritime Nexus” Adelle Neary Southeast Asia from Scott Circle Volume V, Issue 24

By Adelle Neary

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Regional tensions on display at Fifth Xiangshan Forum

Last week's Fifth Xiangshan Forum in Beijing demonstrated just how difficult it will be to resolve disputes in the South China Sea as long as key parties believe history must arbitrate the veracity of claims to sovereignty over contested islands. Scholars, officials and military officers from all

By Merriden Varrall

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Why economics doesn't explain China's FTA decision

Malcolm Cook and I have been debating why China has been willing to bless Tony Abbott with an FTA when Mr Abbott has so strongly opposed Beijing's political and strategic interests and aspirations in Asia. Why has President Xi met Mr Abbott's stick with such a juicy carrot, especially when

By Hugh White

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Why US control of the South Korean military is here to stay

In late October, the US and South Korea agreed to delay the issue of who would control the Republic of Korea Army (ROKA) in the event of a war on the Korean Peninsula. In the argot of Korean security, this is known as the reversion of operational control or 'OPCON'. The debate on this issue has

By Robert E Kelly

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Managing Maritime Disputes and Tensions in Indo-Pacific Asia

Managing Maritime Disputes and Tensions in Indo-Pacific Asia Rory Medcalf Remarks at the Fifth Xiangshan Forum Beijing, 21 November, 2014

By Rory Medcalf

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Brisbane speech underlines Obama's increasingly tough tone on China

Yesterday in Brisbane US President Barack Obama reaffirmed the Asian Pivot/Rebalance (transcript) which he presented in Canberra three years ago. But in doing so he presented a view of Asia's future, and especially of US-China relations, which was starker and darker than he gave in 2011. This

By Hugh White

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Obama on Asia: Holding the Brisbane line

America's commitment to security, dignity and prosperity in Asia, facing up to global challenges, and some strong words on climate change – President Obama's just-concluded speech in Brisbane was a hybrid package. I imagine other contributors will add context to his applause-evoking remarks on

By Rory Medcalf

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Russia is back in the Pacific

The Russian Navy is getting closer to Australia than we're used to, and beyond the bluster of 'shirtfronting' we don't seem to have a coherent policy response to a more active Russia in our 'near abroad'. Russian Navy officers and the Slava-class cruiser Varyag. As my colleague James Brown wrote

By Emilia Christoforou

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South China Sea action at the East Asia Summit?

South China Sea action at the East Asia Summit? Rory Medcalf Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative 11 November 2014

By Rory Medcalf

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Defence challenges 2035: Securing Australia's lifelines

By Rory Medcalf, Director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Program and James Brown, Military Fellow Debates on Australia's defence policy have long oscillated between two schools: one focused on the physical defence of Australia's territory and its immediate maritime approaches, the

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Putin flexes muscle ahead of G20

What to do if you are the leader of a former superpower about to travel to a small-ish country whose leader has promised to shirtfront you? The answer seems to be to flex a little muscle. Russian leader Vladimir Putin is in Beijing today for the APEC meeting ahead of this week's G20 Summit in

By James Brown

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US and allies outgunned in South China Sea

Three books published this year contemplate Asia's most vexing problem. Taken together, they provide a thorough understanding of the contest in the South China Sea. Still, they leave the reader with one large puzzle. Asia's Cauldron recounts, in Robert Kaplan's readable travelogue style, the

By Julian Snelder

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China's overseas basing strategy

'Will China's growing global economic interests lead it to expand its overseas military presence and capabilities?' This is a question that has been asked by policymakers, academics and strategists since China's economic growth became dependent on its ability to access energy through maritime sea

By Brendan Thomas-Noone

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Indonesia under Jokowi: A foreign policy driven by a “Global Maritime Nexus”

Indonesia under Jokowi: A foreign policy driven by a “Global Maritime Nexus” Adelle Neary CogitASIA 23 October 2014

By Adelle Neary

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Political stability first, strategic stability second

The central purpose of deploying strategic nuclear weapons on SSBNs, rather than on other less expensive and technologically demanding platforms, is to assure the survival of these weapons in order for them to conduct a second strike. The rationale is that assured retaliation will dissuade a

By Ravi Ganesh

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Mapping the Indo-Pacific? China, India and the United States

Mapping the Indo-Pacific? China, India and the United States Rory Medcalf Chapter 2 in Mohan Malik (ed.), Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific Perspectives from China, India, and the United States September 2014

By Rory Medcalf

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Modi in the US: A truly strategic partnership?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's much anticipated and greatly feted visit to Washington has divided opinion. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, New York, 26 September 2014 (Flickr/Narendra Modi) The writer C. Raja Mohan concluded in the Indian Express that Modi and Obama had 'restored

By Shashank Joshi

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The public has a role to play in the next Defence White Paper

Australia's national interests are enmeshed with international order, and daily we see grim reminders that armed force still matters in the contemporary world. Australian forces are reportedly close to going into combat against violent extremists in the Middle East. War has returned to Europe and a

By Rory Medcalf

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Strategic stability and SSBNs: Arms control may be the answer

From a strategic perspective, the bottom line attraction for states seeking to acquire nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) is survivability. States possessing SSBNs cannot be victims of a disarming first strike. They will always possess the ability to strike back with submarine launched

By Peter Dombrowski

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Cyberwar and war in space: Making SSBNs more dangerous

As several participants in our debate have argued, nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) can have a positive effect on strategic stability in Asia and globally. But they do not exist in a vacuum. New military capabilities, and strategies that take advantage of them, are being developed and

By Brendan Thomas-Noone

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Chinese submarine's Sri Lanka visit prompts rescue questions

Chinese submarine support ship in Colombo Port, Sri Lanka. (PLA photo.) The visit of the Chinese Type 039 'Song' class submarine to Colombo, Sri Lanka, earlier this month passed with little notice, but it's the first time one of the People's Liberation Army-Navy's (PLA-N) diesel-powered submarines

By James Brown

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Asia's "Cold Peace": China and India's Delicate Diplomatic Dance

Asia's "Cold Peace": China and India's Delicate Diplomatic Dance Rory Medcalf The National Interest 24 September 2014 Please click here for the online text.

By Rory Medcalf

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Is China a realist power?

Eurasia's arc of instability is ablaze. Robert Kagan rails against America's impotence. A cartoon depicts Uncle Sam as a hapless fireman, impotent in eastern Europe and the Middle East; others see America itself as the arsonist. Henry Kissinger launches yet another book warning of chaos amid

By Julian Snelder

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Xi Jinping in India: Economic focus suits both sides

Prepare yourself for a glut of feeble anthropomorphic metaphors (elephants, pandas, tigers, and dragons are all anticipated) and bloviating communiqués: India-China diplomacy is underway. President Xi Jinping today begins the first Chinese visit to India since the election of Prime Minister

By Shashank Joshi

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Collaborating across the Indian Ocean

Collaborating across the Indian Ocean Danielle Rajendram Pragati 14 September 2014 Please click here for the online text.

By Danielle Rajendram

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