Asia Pacific Security

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South China Sea: ASEAN Summit falls short again

History neither repeated nor reversed itself at the ASEAN Summit last weekend when it came to the South China Sea disputes. Three preliminary judgments can be made with an eye for ASEAN's future centrality in relation to this issue. 1. ASEAN and its host state clearly learned from its historic 2012

By Malcolm Cook

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From the comments section: Chinese actions in the South China Sea

Featuring the best comments by Interpreter readers, as selected by the editors. A couple of excellent reader responses to Sam Roggeveen's post on Chinese actions in the South China Sea. First, Mishmael disagrees with Sam's proposal that China could pursue a less risky (and cheaper) 'rise' by

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Family reunions belie future of the Korean peninsula

Family reunions belie future of the Korean peninsula Andrew Kwon East Asia Forum 5 April 2014 The online text of this article is available here

By Andrew Kwon

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The China-Vietnam standoff: Three key factors

So, another maritime incident between China and one of its neighbours. There are reports from officials in Hanoi that Chinese and Vietnamese vessels collided on at least two separate occasions in the South China Sea on Sunday, in waters 120nm off the Vietnamese coast. The dispute began last

By Dirk van der Kley

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Indo-Pacific security links: Russian patrols, joint exercises, North Korea, the Spratlys and more

The Indo-Pacific is a strategic system encompassing the Indian and Pacific oceans, reflecting the expanding interests and reach of China and India as well as the enduring role of the US. The Lowy Institute's International Security program presents a weekly selection of links illuminating the

By William Hobart

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Interview: Malcolm Fraser on 'Dangerous Allies'

Yesterday I had a long and fascinating talk with former Australian prime minister Malcolm Fraser, who has just released Dangerous Allies, his new book calling for a substantially more independent Australian strategic posture. You can listen to the whole conversation below, but I have also

By Sam Roggeveen

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Indo-Pacific security links: China-India naval exercises, the pivot, Chna's military and more

By Danielle Rajendram

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Crimea: A silver lining for the United States’ Asian allies?

Crimea: A silver lining for the United States’ Asian allies? Rory Medcalf National Bureau of Asian Research 22 May 2014 Please click to access the online text and full series.

By Rory Medcalf

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Mearsheimer's big question: Can China rise peacefully?

The University of Chicago's famed international relations theorist John Mearsheimer has generously updated, and posted free of charge, the epilogue to his legendary realist book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. The original book, published in 2001, is frankly hard reading for any young IR or

By Julian Snelder

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Abbott is playing a well-balanced hand in Asia

Abbott is playing a well-balanced hand in Asia Rory Medcalf Australian Financial Review 10 April 2014

By Rory Medcalf

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Leaked 1962 report reveals India's still-unresolved military weaknesses

The recent public controversy in India over the release of a secret report on India's 1962 military defeat by China reveals a lot about some of the big strategic problems India faces. The so-called Henderson Brooks Report was an independent report commissioned by the Indian Army in the months

By David Brewster

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Defining Asia the Indo-Pacific way

Defining Asia the Indo-Pacific way Rory Medcalf The Jakarta Globe 31 March 2014 Please click here for the online text

By Rory Medcalf

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Three reasons why North Korea continues to provoke

Yesterday North Korea conducted artillery exercises in the Yellow Sea (West Sea). Approximately one hundred rounds feel across the border, prompting the South to counter-fire and scramble F-15s to the area (here is a useful write-up of the incident). South Korean residents of local islands were

By Robert E Kelly

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Anti-piracy effort marks China's rise as global power

Here's a major piece of research from the US Naval War College about China's participation in Gulf of Aden anti-piracy operations over the last four-plus years. It's from November last year but very much still worth flagging. It's incredibly thorough, covering everything from operational lessons to

By Sam Roggeveen

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Right path must be steered between Tokyo and Beijing

Right path must be steered between Tokyo and Beijing Rory Medcalf Australian Financial Review 26 March 2014 Please click here for the online text

By Rory Medcalf

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Xi Jinping consolidates his control of PLA

Chinese President Xi Jinping's consolidation of power in military affairs has picked up over the past week. On Saturday state media reported that Xi is to lead a group in charge of deepening military reform. Xi already heads up similar bodies on economic reform and runs the newly established

By Vaughan Winterbottom

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Is India 'losing' the Bay of Bengal?

Is the Bay of Bengal the next strategic locus for Sino-Indian strategic competition? Prominent strategic commentator Raja Mohan recently lamented that India was on the point of 'losing' the Bay of Bengal to China. The occasion of his complaint was the attendance by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan

By David Brewster

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East Asia's maritime disputes: Fishing in troubled waters

East Asia's maritime disputes: Fishing in troubled waters Alan Dupont & Christopher G. Baker The Washington Quarterly, 2014, 37:1, pp.79-98

By Alan Dupont, Christopher G Baker

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India's own string of pearls: Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Seychelles and Maldives

On 7 March, Shiv Shankar Menon, India's National Security Advisor, announced that the Indian Ocean island states of Seychelles and Mauritius had joined India's naval arrangement with Sri Lanka and the Maldives in a new Indian Ocean security grouping that some have called the 'IO-5'. The new

By David Brewster

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Comparing China and the Kaiser's Germany (part 1): Similarities

This two-part series examines the frequent comparison between contemporary China and pre-1914 Wilhelmine Germany. A host of commentators have made this comparison in the past few years: Walter Russell Mead, Martin Wolf, Edward Luttwak, and Joseph Nye, and a little further afield, Gideon Rachman

By Robert E Kelly

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General Hurley previews the Defence White Paper

Twenty months ago the Chief of the Defence Force delivered a speech at the Lowy Institute outlining how he thought the 2013 White Paper would be developed. Today at the University of Canberra's National Security Institute, the CDF again gave a speech foregrounding a Defence White Paper. But this

By James Brown

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The global strategic consequences of Russia's intervention in Ukraine

The immediate risk of major armed conflict in Europe may have eased slightly, but Russia's brutally old-fashioned assault on Ukrainian sovereignty will have profound strategic consequences. These will matter as much to the rest of the world, including Asia, as they will to Europe. Beyond the rude

By Rory Medcalf

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US position hardens on China's nine-dashed line

In January 2013, senior US Navy intelligence officer Captain James Fanell described China's maritime strategy and ambitions as 'hegemonic' and aggressive, and said China 'bullies adversaries'. This unusually blunt assessment made news around the world. Sam Roggeveen, who broke the story for The

By Scott Bentley

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US defence budget: Hagel cuts won't be the last

Those of you who read Mike Green's post this morning and who have followed the coverage of US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel's budget bid will understand that this is not the last word on the US defence budget. Congress will try to fight some of the cuts, the sequester may impose further cuts, and as

By Sam Roggeveen

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Hagel's defence budget proposal is a reasonable place-holder for the pivot

If Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel’s proposed defence budget becomes reality, then the Administration's so-called 'pivot' or 'rebalance' to the Asia Pacific will have enough credibility to continue shaping regional expectations in a positive direction – at least on the military side (trade

By Michael J Green

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Burma: A critical look at those chemical weapons claims

Since the 1988 pro-democracy uprising, strategic analysts monitoring developments in Burma (Myanmar) have been on quite a roller-coaster ride, particularly with regard to weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Over the past 25 years, both the former military regime and President Thein Sein's reformist

By Andrew Selth

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Interview: Danny Russel on the status of the US rebalance

Daniel (Danny) Russel is US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, which means he is the State Department's senior Asia diplomat (he succeeded Kurt Campbell in the role). Russel traveled with his boss John Kerry to Jakarta early this week and then made a quick visit to

By Sam Roggeveen

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Spying row: Why Indonesia is tougher on Canberra than on Washington

Australia has copped the ire and sarcasm of Indonesian foreign minister Marty Natalegawa over fresh spying allegations reported in the New York Times last weekend. Meanwhile, the US, Australia’s alleged partner in the reported espionage, has emerged unscathed. As Natalegawa welcomed US

By Catriona Croft-Cusworth

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Indo-Pacific security links: Kerry in Jakarta, Japan-China history, the pivot, Top Gun and more

Brendan Thomas-Noone is an intern in the Lowy Institute's International Security Program. Multiple lines of communication over maritime, nuclear and space issues are what helped keep the Cold War from going hot. Michael Krepon argues that this is a missing link between Washington and Beijing. Two

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China's navy showing its inexperience on the open oceans

The US Navy has formed the view that the November 2013 incident between the American cruiser Cowpens and the Chinese carrier group arose directly from the PLA Navy's lack of experience with oceanic operations and the formal and informal rules which govern interactions between foreign navies. That's

By James Goldrick

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China's naval exercise: Jakarta Post story raises new questions

China's Indo-Pacific naval exercise, which I first analysed in this post, is continuing to make waves, with David Wroe of the Sydney Morning Herald providing this good wrap-up on the implications for Australia. But what are we to make of the latest twist being reported in the Jakarta Post?

By Rory Medcalf

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Bangun dari Tidur, Lihat Kekuatan Angkatan Laut China

In this Indonesian-language article for Media Indonesia, Rory Medcalf and Dr C Raja Mohan explore the strategic implications of China's recent naval foray into the waters between Australia and Indonesia

By Rory Medcalf, C Raja Mohan

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India-Japan ties in the face of a rising China

India-Japan ties in the face of a rising China Danielle Rajendram China-India Brief # 20 Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy 28 January 2014 Please click here for the full online text

By Danielle Rajendram

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Sea change of China power

In this op-ed for The Australian, Rory Medcalf and C Raja Mohan look at the strategic implications of China's naval foray into the waters between Indonesia and Australia

By Rory Medcalf, C Raja Mohan

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China makes statement as it sends naval ships off Australia's maritime approaches

Australia's strategic environment changed a week ago, even if much of our media did not notice. Last weekend, a Chinese taskforce of three warships steamed south through the Sunda Strait to conduct combat simulations and other exercises in the Indian Ocean, somewhere between Indonesia and

By Rory Medcalf

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Three notes on the State of the Union

1. The importance of Asia to America Robert Kelly's outstanding contribution on the absence of Asia from Obama's State of the Union speech deserves a brief addendum. Here's a key excerpt from Bob's post: ...in both security and economic affairs, the relationship is highly asymmetric, and those

By Sam Roggeveen

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The State of the Union scarcely mentioned Asia Â and that's no surprise

US presidential State of the Union addresses (SotU) are frequently as important for what the leave out as what they include. President Obama’s SotU, delivered yesterday in Washington, is notable in this regard, especially for foreign policy observers. It has been widely noted that he said almost

By Robert E Kelly

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Indo-Pacific security links: Abe in India, China's hypersonic vehicle, Global Hawks and more

Brendan Thomas-Noone is an intern in the Lowy Institute's International Security Program. Global business leaders may be waking up to the growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attended India's Republic Day in New Delhi this week. Was China the reason? Meanwhile,

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Is Burma really buying submarines?

For the past six months, there have been intermittent reports in the news media and on specialist websites stating that Burma (Myanmar) is developing a submarine capability. If this is true, it has important implications not only for Burma and the region, but also for the wider international

By Andrew Selth

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Reader riposte: More on the limits of Chinese naval power

Alexander Luck writes: Richard Broinowski may want to check a few of his facts. The J-15 inflight refueling system is meant to provide more fuel to other aircraft, not to the plane carrying it, unlike an ordinary drop-tank. It will therefore enable these aircraft to take off with heavier

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Indo-Pacific security links: Yasukuni, Malaysia's strategy, Asian order and more

Late last year, tensions in East Asia flared after Japanese Prime Minister Abe made a controversial official visit to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo. What are the consequences of the visit likely to be and will it hurt US-Japan relations? Malaysia is pursuing a two-fold strategy in the South China

By Danielle Rajendram

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Tensions in the East China Sea

This workshop report comprises four papers presented at an international workshop, 'Tensions in the East China Sea', which was held at the Lowy Institute in Sydney in June 2013. The papers are written by Ms Bonnie Glaser, Ms Linda Jakobson, Prof Jin Canrong and Mr Wang Hao, and Lt Gen (Ret)

By Bonnie S Glaser, Linda Jakobson, Jin Canrong, Noboru Yamaguchi, Wang Hao

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What won't happen: Three 'anti-predictions' for Northeast Asia in 2014

It’s the time of year for predictions, but rather than looking at what might happen in Northeast Asia in 2014, let's flag some events that, although they might or should happen, probably won’t happen. 1. There will be no Sino-Japanese war The analogies of China to Wilhelmine Germany

By Robert E Kelly

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Mike Green on Abe's security strategy and the Abbott Government in Asia

This week Japan released its first overarching national security strategy, a sign of the troubled times in North Asian geopolitics as well as a marker of where Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to take Japanese policy. So this was the logical moment for the Lowy Institute to launch a new analysis

By Rory Medcalf

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The Indian Ocean region: Security, stability and sustainability in the 21st century. Report of the Australia India Institute Task Force on Indian Ocean Security

International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf reviews the report of the Australia India Institute Taskforce on Indian Ocean Security, The Indian Ocean region: Security, stability and sustainability in the 21st century

By Rory Medcalf

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Q. & A.: Rory Medcalf on the meaning of China’s Air Defense Zone

In this interview with Austin Ramzy for the New York Times' Sinosphere blog, Rory Medcalf discusses the regional security implications of China's Air Defence Identification Zone

By Austin Ramzy, Rory Medcalf

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China throws away a chance to lead

In this piece for the Wall Street Journal, Rory Medcalf argues that China has allowed its territorial dispute in the South China Sea to distort its diplomatic response to Typhoon Haiyan

By Rory Medcalf

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Typhoon Haiyan: Disaster response highlights diplomacy of aid, boosts countries' influence

In this piece for ABC News, Rory Medcalf looks at the strategic consequences already evident in responses to Typhoon Haiyan in Asia

By Rory Medcalf

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India's subtle China strategy

In this article for The National Interest, Danielle Rajendram argues that India deserves more credit for the way it has managed its relations with China in the face of numerous provocations.

By Danielle Rajendram

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Pivot to Asia has not fallen off its axis

In this piece for the Australian, Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Alan Dupont examines President Obama's absence from APEC and the East Asia Summit in the context of the US' role in Asia

By Alan Dupont

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