Asia Pacific Security

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's keynote speech to the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last night did not quite match the pre-event speculation that he would pitch Japan as a 'counter-balance' to China. But the temperature rose significantly here this morning with a speech from US Defense

Amid tensions in the South China Sea and new alarm about a China-Russia alignment, President Obama's speech at West Point sends some confusing signals to the countries of Indo-Pacific Asia.   To be fair, the speech was not meant to be principally about Asia. It was intended to draw a final line

Are ballistic missile defence capabilities of relevance to Australia? Andrew Davies and Rob Lyon preview their new paper on the subject. In the latest issue of Survival, Lawrence Freedman explores the history of crisis management and its application to the Ukrainian crisis. Europe has struggled to

Many people, like my old friend Brad Glosserman, find it hard to understand why China is acting the way it is in the East and South China Seas. What does Beijing hope to achieve by alienating its neighbours and undermining regional stability? Let me suggest an answer: China is trying to build

History neither repeated nor reversed itself at the ASEAN Summit last weekend when it came to the South China Sea disputes. Three preliminary judgments can be made with an eye for ASEAN's future centrality in relation to this issue. 1. ASEAN and its host state clearly learned from its historic 2012

The Indo-Pacific is a strategic system encompassing the Indian and Pacific oceans, reflecting the expanding interests and reach of China and India as well as the enduring role of the US. The Lowy Institute's International Security program presents a weekly selection of links illuminating the

The Indo-Pacific is a strategic system encompassing the Indian and Pacific oceans, reflecting the expanding interests and reach of China and India as well as the enduring role of the US. The Lowy Institute's International Security program presents a weekly selection of links illuminating the

The University of Chicago's famed international relations theorist John Mearsheimer has generously updated, and posted free of charge, the epilogue to his legendary realist book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. The original book, published in 2001, is frankly hard reading for any young IR or

The recent public controversy in India over the release of a secret report on India's 1962 military defeat by China reveals a lot about some of the big strategic problems India faces. The so-called Henderson Brooks Report was an independent report commissioned by the Indian Army in the months

Yesterday North Korea conducted artillery exercises in the Yellow Sea (West Sea). Approximately one hundred rounds feel across the border, prompting the South to counter-fire and scramble F-15s to the area (here is a useful write-up of the incident). South Korean residents of local islands were

Is the Bay of Bengal the next strategic locus for Sino-Indian strategic competition? Prominent strategic commentator Raja Mohan recently lamented that India was on the point of 'losing' the Bay of Bengal to China. The occasion of his complaint was the attendance by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan

On 7 March, Shiv Shankar Menon, India's National Security Advisor, announced that the Indian Ocean island states of Seychelles and Mauritius had joined India's naval arrangement with Sri Lanka and the Maldives in a new Indian Ocean security grouping that some have called the 'IO-5'. The new

Twenty months ago the Chief of the Defence Force delivered a speech at the Lowy Institute outlining how he thought the 2013 White Paper would be developed. Today at the University of Canberra's National Security Institute, the CDF again gave a speech foregrounding a Defence White Paper. But this

In January 2013, senior US Navy intelligence officer Captain James Fanell described China's maritime strategy and ambitions as 'hegemonic' and aggressive, and said China 'bullies adversaries'. This unusually blunt assessment made news around the world. Sam Roggeveen, who broke the story for The

If Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel’s proposed defence budget becomes reality, then the Administration's so-called 'pivot' or 'rebalance' to the Asia Pacific will have enough credibility to continue shaping regional expectations in a positive direction – at least on the military side (trade

Daniel (Danny) Russel is US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, which means he is the State Department's senior Asia diplomat (he succeeded Kurt Campbell in the role). Russel traveled with his boss John Kerry to Jakarta early this week and then made a quick visit to

Brendan Thomas-Noone is an intern in the Lowy Institute's International Security Program. Multiple lines of communication over maritime, nuclear and space issues are what helped keep the Cold War from going hot. Michael Krepon argues that this is a missing link between Washington and Beijing. Two

China's Indo-Pacific naval exercise, which I first analysed in this post, is continuing to make waves, with David Wroe of the Sydney Morning Herald providing this good wrap-up on the implications for Australia. But what are we to make of the latest twist being reported in the Jakarta Post?  

Australia's strategic environment changed a week ago, even if much of our media did not notice. Last weekend, a Chinese taskforce of three warships steamed south through the Sunda Strait to conduct combat simulations and other exercises in the Indian Ocean, somewhere between Indonesia and

US presidential State of the Union addresses (SotU) are frequently as important for what the leave out as what they include. President Obama’s SotU, delivered yesterday in Washington, is notable in this regard, especially for foreign policy observers. It has been widely noted that he said almost