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The tangled web of India-China relations

The present phase of India-China relations emerged from the desire and imperative to reset relations after the Doklam standoff in 2017 and the realisation that, despite the persistence of major differences between them, India and China have significant areas of cooperation both in the bilateral and

By Biren Nanda

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The false dichotomy at the heart of Australia’s China debate

A new narrative, advanced by the “wolverines” and like-minded commentators, is emerging and solidifying within Australia’s China “debate”. This narrative casts disliked Chinese policies as attacks on Australian sovereignty, and thus any problem in the bilateral relationship is instantly

By Iain Henry

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Hong Kong's new 'Basic Law' is that whatever China says, goes

Judges alone cannot protect territory from Beijing's heavy-handed interventions. Originally published in Nikkei Asian Review

By Ben Bland

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Covid contest in Indian Ocean region: India, China jostle for top spot

In recent times, Australia has been searching for ways to support its Pacific “family” through the Covid-19 crisis with an eye on China’s moves. India has also been trying to help countries in the Indian Ocean region amid China’s growing influence. Responses to the corona crisis have so far

By David Brewster

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In beef over barley, Chinese economic coercion cuts against the grain

Last weekend news broke that the Chinese government was considering imposing large tariffs on Australian barley exports. Now, China-bound exports from four Australian meat processors have been suspended. Following Australian calls for an independent inquiry into the early handling of Covid-19,

By Darren Lim, Victor Ferguson

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Weight on the scales

A few months back – only in January, yet seemingly a very different time – Mike Mazarr and I offered some initial reflections on America’s and China’s contrasting “theories of influence”. The article prompted a series of contributions, including an initial rejoinder from Sam Roggeveen

By Ali Wyne

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Wuhan lab claims: Is Australia questioning China? Or the US? Both?

A calculated leak? – Ben Scott Local newspapers have published remarkable claims detailing Australia’s reported concern about suggestions coming out of Washington that the outbreak of Covid-19 may have been the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan rather than coming from an

By Ben Scott, Sam Roggeveen, Natasha Kassam

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Beyond Covid, might China overreach?

A major disruption and the emergence of a global threat in the shape of a pandemic may have been expected to foster closer global cooperation. While this may momentarily be true, as countries cooperate to strengthen their healthcare infrastructure and in seeking effective cures and vaccines, there

By Biren Nanda

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Who would Beijing prefer wins in November?

The 2020 US presidential election may well go down in history as the “China election”. Indeed, if the past month has been any indication, the narratives around this race for the White House will heavily feature how each candidate plans to manage the rapidly deteriorating relationship between the

By Elliott Zaagman

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Despite headwinds, China prepares for world’s largest carbon market

In late 2017, China released its national emissions trading system (ETS) plan, laying out a three-stage transition from regional pilot systems that began in 2013. The national ETS announcement came at a time of intense global interest in China’s climate action, especially given the November 2020

By Huw Slater

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The prospects for China’s post–Covid-19 economy

While the Canberra political establishment has been sparring with China’s Foreign Ministry – and with Australian billionaires – much of the corporate elite has begun puzzling how to slipstream China’s post–Covid-19 economic recovery. Optimists hope that Beijing will summon a massive

By Rowan Callick

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Gwadar Port: New Dubai or pie in the sky?

The small port town of Gwadar, in the south-west of Pakistan, is the centre stage of the $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, the Pakistan component of ther Belt and Road Initiative. Under CPEC, Gwadar is to be developed into a smart port city, and will be not only a major

By Adnan Aamir

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Unpacking China’s overseas aid program

China’s role in the outbreak of the biggest pandemic since 1918 – both in terms of how it started and how China managed its response – has come into global focus. China is sharing what it has learned and assisting other countries to manage their own response. Its actions are being met with

By Jo-Hannah Lavey

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The missing piece in the debate about the future regional order

With cruise ships banned from ports around the world, it would not be a stretch to wonder about the impact the coronavirus pandemic will have on future military movement as well. Such questions matter, for the practice of sending warships on visits to foreign ports has been an enduring feature of

By Nurliana Kamaruddin, Jan Vincent Galas

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Foresight and pragmatism missing in Australia’s relations with China

There are many reasons the world needs an independent inquiry into the origins of the novel coronavirus. After all, the pandemic has infected nearly three million people and taken around 200,000 lives worldwide, at latest count. And the world should push for one at the appropriate time. Properly and

By Alistair Nicholas

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How Is the Coronavirus Outbreak Affecting China’s Relations with Its Asian Neighbors?

Originally published in ChinaFile and Foreign Policy

By Natasha Kassam

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Is this the Kindleberger moment?

In 1973 Charles Kindleberger wrote his now acclaimed book on the Great Depression. He argued that it was “great” because the global economic system had lost its hegemon – in less exotic terms, its system manager. In the interwar period, the UK was the system manager, but given the grievous

By Peter Layton

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Troubled waters: China’s sovereign ambition in the shadows of Covid-19

Around midnight on 2 April, a Vietnamese fishing vessel sank in the disputed waters in the South China Sea after allegedly being rammed by the Chinese coastguard. Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded swiftly, stating that the act had violated its country’s sovereignty. A similar

By Trinh Le

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Statesman Turnbull steps up: Secret letters, taming Trump, due credit

Big boys time From media baron Rupert Murdoch to leadership rival Peter Dutton, Malcolm Turnbull’s new memoir* released this week is partly built on his self-assessment that he can size up a bully better than most. “The one thing I’d learned with bullies is that sucking up to them is

By Greg Earl

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Europe hasn’t fallen for China – if anything, it’s the opposite

Gains for China’s reputation in Europe from Beijing’s spectacular PR-actions in the fight against the coronavirus will be short-lived. Covid-19 has not shifted the geopolitical landscape between the old European and the new Chinese world. Serbia’s President Vucic kowtow to Xi Jinping,

By Daniel Woker

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New crackdown will deepen dividing lines in Hong Kong

Whoever first said that “you should never waste a good crisis”, the Chinese government appears to be listening. At least when it comes to Hong Kong. With the city and the world’s attention on Covid-19, Hong Kong police swooped at the weekend to arrest 15 veteran activists on allegations of

By Ben Bland

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As Africa prepares to fight Covid-19, China steps up

As China slowly begins to recover from Covid-19 and re-start its economy, it is seeking to position itself at the head of the global virus response and fill the void in humanitarian assistance created by Western paralysis. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Africa, where China has a long history

By Cornelia Tremann

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The World After COVID‑19

How will the coronavirus pandemic change the world? Lowy Institute experts provide their analysis

By Michael Fullilove, Richard McGregor, Bonnie S Glaser, Roland Rajah, Stephen Grenville, Hervé Lemahieu , Ben Bland, Jonathan Pryke, Annmaree O’Keeffe, Natasha Kassam, Lydia Khalil, Alex Oliver

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WHO and China: Compounding politics and policy

This should be the greatest hour for the World Health Organisation, the UN’s Geneva-based body dedicated to fighting just such a global threat as Covid-19. Instead, WHO is struggling to defend its own credibility – while the impact of the contortions into which it has forced itself by adhering

By Rowan Callick

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US regional leadership: A shot across the bow

For years at the Shangri-La Dialogue, the pre-eminent meeting of defence ministers held in Singapore, successive secretaries of defence from the United States have repeated ad nauseam that Washington is a “resident power” in the region.It is becoming increasingly evident that the Covid-19

By William Choong

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Xi Jinping emerges stronger from Covid-19 outbreak

The tardy response by the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) to the Covid-19 outbreak triggered widespread community outrage. But Beijing’s draconian crackdown, paired with intense scrutiny and intrusion into the daily lives of ordinary citizens, has further consolidated power in the hands of

By Jennifer Hsu

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China-US geopolitics in the age of corona

The coronavirus pandemic is a “black swan” moment: a rare and unpredictable event that could have momentous, system-wide, and unforeseen consequences. China deserves credit for having mobilised quickly, efficiently, and effectively after initial missteps to defeat the Covid-19 disease.

By Ramesh Thakur

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China is rewriting coronavirus history and nobody will stop it

In an opinion piece published in the Nikkei Asian Review, Natasha Kassam argues that China has leapt on the opportunity to shape the global narrative about its response to the coronavirus as other countries grapple to manage the crisis

By Natasha Kassam

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Are you ready for how the coronavirus is transforming the world?

As important as the health risks posed by the coronavirus pandemic and its containment are, leaders also need to start to think about the shape of the post–Covid-19 global economy. If they don’t, we all face a serious risk of succumbing to the new anti-globalisation protectionism that is on

By Alistair Nicholas, Guy McKanna

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The Belt and Rebranding Initiative

China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) continues to defy simple explanations. Initially used as a means to promote and frame the country’s key foreign policy initiatives, it has now morphed into somewhat of an umbrella term for all sorts of Chinese overseas activities. Is this development

By Nora Schlenzig

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Covid-19 in China, the US, India: Comparative crisis management 101

Whatever else the rapidly evolving and increasingly global health crisis may or may not do, it’s shining an unforgiving light on the relative capacities of national health systems. Even more importantly in the longer-term, perhaps, it’s providing a searching examination of political leaders, and

By Mark Beeson, Priya Chacko

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On the Mekong, Khon Pi rapids saved – for now

Just over a year ago, I reported on the uncertain future of the Khon Pi rapids, located near the Thai town of Chiang Khong and lying in the riverbed between Thailand and Laos. At issue was the desire of a Chinese company to blast the rapids and thus open the course of the Mekong for commercial

By Milton Osborne

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Who will be the 21st century’s rule maker?

Mike Mazarr and I are debating the way Asia will be “governed” in future. That term needs to be placed in quote marks because international affairs aren’t analogous to domestic politics – there is no supreme sovereign authority with a monopoly on the legitimate use of force, so states

By Sam Roggeveen

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China’s Economic Choices

China’s economic growth has fallen to its slowest rate since 1990, and this deceleration looks set to continue unless China implements the kinds of deep reforms behind the successful economic transitions of Japan and Korea

By David Orsmond

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Politics comes first in China's agony

In an opinion piece originally published in the Financial Review, Natasha Kassam argues that China's biggest concern in dealing with the new coronavirus is maintaining stability and keeping its grip on information

By Natasha Kassam

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China’s counteroffensive in the war of ideas

From Beijing's perspective, political influence operations are at least as important as military operations, if not more so. Although the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) military modernisation programs have been at the centre of attention for decades, China's influence operations have only

By Nadège Rolland

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Why the COVID-19 outbreak may help China move a little further forward

The novel coronavirus viral strain COVID-19 has dominated weeks of headlines and led to extraordinary measures in an effort to quell its spread. The decision to quarantine Wuhan – the epicentre of the outbreak – still stands as the most significant emergency action, effectively isolating tens of

By Jan Harrison

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Power and legitimacy go hand in hand

I was delighted to read Sam Roggeveen’s thoughtful reply to The Interpreter article by Ali Wyne and myself about the relative qualities of US and Chinese power. Roggeveen makes good points; I agree, for example, that US military power has been critical to the post-war order. But I remain convinced

By Michael J. Mazarr

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Coronavirus and the flow of information in the Chinese party-state

As the novel coronavirus outbreak crisis is unfolding across China, the Communist party’s efficiency is once again in the spotlight. On the one hand, there’s the capability to mobilise resources from across the state that allows to build new hospitals in a matter of days, a feature of Chinese

By Nora Schlenzig

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Domestic vulnerabilities lie behind China’s aggressive expansion

In 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a speech to the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party stating that China now “stands tall and firm in the East”. He added, China’s example “offers a new option for other countries and nations who want to speed up their

By Philip Citowicki

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In Africa, the US plays catch-up with China

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has announced his first trip to Africa, 15–19 February, with stops in Senegal, Ethiopia, and Angola. The choice of these three countries demonstrates that the US remains focused on security and economic investment issues in Africa, and, in the case of Angola, is

By Cornelia Tremann

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Chart of the week: Trust in China

Almost 30,000 cases of coronavirus have been officially confirmed, amid reports of Chinese authorities increasingly cracking down on information at the epicentre of the crisis. With governments around the world imposing travel bans, as well as local Chinese communities being unfairly stigmatised,

By The Interpreter

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Where Latin America can learn from Australia in dealing with China

In the past decade, Latin America has become one of the venues for the strategic dispute between the United States and China. This is a natural consequence of Beijing’s growing economic and political links with a region that has traditionally been part of Washington’s sphere of influence. Due

By Francisco de Santibañes

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Afghan transit a game changer for Gwadar port

On a sunny Tuesday in the third week of January, a cargo ship named Diyala docked at Gwadar seaport, in south-west Pakistan. The enthusiastic port staff quickly unloaded the cargo. When the unloading was finished, Chinese officials operating the port, along with their Pakistani counterparts, posed

By Adnan Aamir

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Coronavirus: One step forward, one step back for the global economy

For a second there the global economy was off to a slightly better start for 2020. The US and China finally inked an initial “phase one” trade deal that at least promised to pause hostilities for a while. That provided some much-needed respite for a world economy, which last year reached its

By Roland Rajah

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The real US–China competition: Competing theories of influence

Strategic competition between the United States and China has come to dominate US foreign policy debates. That competition is multifaceted – while rooted principally in a quest for economic pre-eminence and technological mastery, it possesses increasingly important military and ideological

By Michael J. Mazarr , Ali Wyne

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Forging consensus in the South China Sea

Analysis as to how Hanoi might resolve its South China Sea disputes with other claimants has been overshadowed by a near exclusive depiction of its competition with Beijing. Hanoi’s current maritime disputes with Beijing have presented few opportunities for strategic progress. Comparatively, the

By Michael Nguyen

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The US is elbowing Australia and allies in a race for the China market

US President Donald Trump was quite right when he declared the 15 January US–China “Stage One” agreement an “unbelievable deal” for the United States. Unbelievable it is, though not in a good way – and especially not for Australia. The deal requires China to import $200 billion more

By John Edwards

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Wuhan coronavirus: How upfront has Beijing been?

It is too early to make a definitive judgement about how Beijing has handled the outbreak of the potentially deadly coronavirus in Wuhan, a city of 11 million in central China. But it is already clear that any assessment will have to take into account not just the medical side of the virus’s

By Richard McGregor

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China has Honiara onside but hasn’t yet won over Solomon Islands

In September, the Solomon Islands government led by Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare severed its 36-year diplomatic relations with the Republic of China (Taiwan) and switched to the People’s Republic of China (China). In the months since, dissenting voices have kept bubbling up. Most prominently,

By Denghua Zhang, Derek Gwali Futaiasi

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