Europe

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Few answers to the existential questions posed by Brexit

A week and a half after the vote that shook the world, the list of unanswered questions continues to grow. Will Brexit really happen? Who will take responsibility? Who and what lost Northern England? Has unbridled populism won or has the popular will prevailed, reflecting a majority disenfranchised

By Daniel Woker

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Brexit: The view from China

Reports that China’s central bank will allow a further fall in the renminbi, which is already trading at its lowest level in over five years, highlight Beijing leadership’s immediate concerns over Brexit. Premier Li Keqiang’s speech to the World Economic Forum last week painted a

By John Lee

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What we can learn from Brexit

There is much being written about the implications of Brexit. This stream of commentary will undoubtedly continue for some time; Matthew Goodwin said the repercussions from Brexit will be felt 'for generations'. While the focus is mostly on the negative implications, some think there may

By Mike Callaghan

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Brexit is England's silliest decision since Suez

It's now over 70 years since British Prime Minister Winston Churchill told his Australian counterpart John Curtin of his wish to see a united western Europe, of which Britain would be a member. The allies had fought their way up the southern Italian peninsula but the Normandy landing was still a

By John Edwards

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The war of the cold words: Russia, the West and propaganda

Superficially, Russian Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky’s recent claim that Netflix was a CIA plot resembles another excitable pronouncement from a Kremlin hierarchy increasingly out of touch with reality. The same goes for the regularly inflammatory comments of Dmitry Rogozin, the possible

By Matthew Sussex

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Brexit: Bruised egos will heal, trading relationships will endure

By Brett Hogan, Senior Fellow and John Roskam, Executive Director at the Institute of Public Affairs Brexit’s victory in last Thursday’s referendum may very well have been a surprise for the pollsters, financial markets, and possibly even the leaders of the Leave campaign but, to twist

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Australia and the UK's leap into the unknown

By Dr Annmarie Elijah, Associate Director, ANU Centre for European Studies, Australian National University and Dr Ben Wellings, Deputy-director, Monash European and EU Centre, Monash University. The full ramifications of the events of 23 June, when a majority of British voters elected to leave the

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Brexit: The view from Berlin

'One has to face up to the fact that the other members of the EU have been slagged off fairly royally, and they're the people who you would be negotiating with.' That was the assessment two weeks ago of Lord Jonathan Hill, who on Saturday resigned as Britain's European Commissioner. First among

By John Lee

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Brexit should be a wake-up call for the G20

The economic and political consequences of last week's Brexit bombshell will have far-reaching implications. One of these is that the G20 should see Brexit as a wake-up call. Philip Stevens from the Financial Times points out that capitalism needed saving in the aftermath of the Global Financial

By Tristram Sainsbury

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The economics of Brexit

A vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower, inflation higher, sterling weaker, house prices

By Stephen Grenville

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Shock will pass but populist exit contagion a risk for markets

A few weeks ago some researchers at Lowy had a lunch. I was asked about the consequences of Brexit for Australia and the global economy. I shrugged my shoulders and said 'Meh'. So, I was quite surprised by the market moves on Friday. Perhaps I shouldn’t have been. If I had paid attention to the

By Leon Berkelmans

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After the vote comes the reckoning

Sometimes cliches and hyperbole are inescapable. Britain’s decision to leave the EU really is momentous; it really will reshape Europe’s political landscape; things really will never be quite the same again. The implications of this entirely avoidable decision look uniformly bad, and not just

By Mark Beeson

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Brexit: Unknown forces unleashed by outcome

In just over 90 hours after the UK's excruciating referendum vote to leave the EU, the politically shattered British Prime Minister, David Cameron, was due to go to Brussels to attend a long-planned EU leaders summit. Instead of celebratory champagne, he and his fellow EU confreres will be bracing

By Derry Hogue

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The four shibboleths of Remain, and why they are unconvincing

In a 2002 book called Why Britain Should Join the Euro, a team of experts including LSE economist Richard Layard, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volker, European Bank Chief Economist Willem Buiter, Chris Huhne, who sat on the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, and others

By Richard Johnson

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Yes, there is an intellectually coherent case for Brexit

Last week on these pages Sam Roggeveen lamented The Interpreter's failure to find internationally respected pundits or commentators willing to write in favour of Brexit. 'If publications such as this one', he wrote, 'are finding it hard to identify professional pundits to make the case for Brexit,

By Matthew Dal Santo

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Brexit would be good for the UK and good for Europe

By Brett Hogan, Senior Fellow, and John Roskam, Executive Director, Institute of Public Affairs. This week's referendum on whether the UK remains with, or leaves, the EU is primarily about democracy and the right of a sovereign people to live under their own laws. A vote to leave would be a

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The strategic consequences of Brexit

If Britain votes to leave the EU on 23 June, it may well represent the greatest strategic shock to the continent since the breakup of the Soviet Union and consequent reunification of Germany a quarter century ago. The balance of power and influence between Britain, France and Germany – a crucial

By Shashank Joshi

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The word on the street

As an Australian living in the UK, I have been asked by friends from home what's the word on the street about Brexit. The idea of reporting public opinion as 'the word on the street' brings to mind the infamous George Negus–Margaret Thatcher interview in which the Iron Lady calls out the

By Christine Gallagher

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Brexit: Where are all the Leave pundits?

Daniel Woker writes on these pages that the Brexit campaign 'lack(s) any intellectually sound argument'. Judging by how difficult it has been for my colleagues and I at The Interpreter to find writers who favour the Leave campaign, it is tempting to agree. And The Interpreter is not alone: we have

By Sam Roggeveen

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Brexit campaign's immigration focus misses the point

Lacking any intellectually sound argument, the Leave crowd centres its appeal on the hot-button issue of migration. Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and company dangle the illusion of a 'pure' British labour market in front of their followers just as Trump promises a Mexican-built wall to those who are

By Daniel Woker

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The curious case of the British left's Europhilia

The UK Labour Party has officially embraced a strong 'Remain' position in this month's EU referendum. The party has invested its full resources, including money, party staff, and volunteers. In many parts of the country, the Labour Party is the mainstay of 'Remain' campaign activity. There are two

By Richard Johnson

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What the UK needs now is more multilateralism, not less

Britain leaving the EU could signal a new shift away from multilateralism as leaders around the world increasingly talk about pulling up the drawbridge against globalisation and retreating into isolationism. This would be a mistake. The EU is enfeebled because its members cannot reach consensus

By Hannah Wurf

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Putin: Russia’s last ‘pro-Western’ alternative

The West tends to anticipate the eventual downfall of Vladimir Putin with certain exuberance and optimism due to expectations of a more ‘pro-Western’ alternative or even the return of Yeltsin-era policies. The anti-Russian sanctions following Moscow's seizure of Crimea were envisioned to turn

By Glenn Diesen

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The Brexit vote and Europe's security

The Brexit vote has put on hold any major EU business. But one way or the other, the EU will change after 23 June, especially with regard to security. Europe faces three related challenges: Libya and Turkey as key migrant transfer countries; Putinism in the East; and the need to stay globally

By Daniel Woker

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Uncertainty filters into UK economy as nation holds its breath

As 23 June, the date of the UK's upcoming referendum on EU membership, nears, the attendant debate has intensified and fractured into two broad camps. Those that want to 'Leave' argue the UK would have a stronger economy, and retain more national sovereignty outside of the EU. Those in the '

By Michael Martins

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Facts take flight; rhetoric takes over

Boris Johnson, former London Lord Mayor, tilter for the next British prime ministership, and all round consummate public player, may not have expected to have Geert Wilders as a political bedfellow. Wilders, the ultra–nationalist, anti–Islamic Dutch populist, has joined Johnson in harking

By Derry Hogue

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Terrorism threat will not diminish if the UK votes to stand alone

In his address to the Lowy Institute last week, Chatham House director Dr Robin Niblett identified security as perhaps the most surprising element of the Brexit debate. In the counter-terrorism context, the debate was turbo-charged by the terrorist attacks in Brussels just over two months ago. And

By David Wells

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Quick comments: Robin Niblett and Martin Wolf on Brexit

Next month, Britain will vote on whether to leave the European Union. How are both sides' campaigns affecting British politics? How would either outcome affect Britain's relationship with the EU? And if Britain votes to stay, what are the prospects for a similar referendum in the future?

By John Gooding

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Obama's UK visit reveals what the Brexit debate is all about

When, in 1961, the Macmillan Government announced Britain's intention to seek admission to the new Common Market, the prospect of Britain entering what is now the EU stunned Australia. Dismayed, Prime Minister Sir Robert Menzies called the announcement 'the most important in time of peace in my

By Matthew Dal Santo

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Russia's success in Syria signals an emerging multipolar world order

The silence from Western capitals as ISIS fled Palmyra was as deafening as it was understandable. In Syria, history has refused to follow the script. On 2 October last year, US President Barack Obama warned that 'a military solution alone. . . an attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad is

By Matthew Dal Santo

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EU-Turkey deal: Coming to terms with the 'appification' of migration

The EU-Turkey deal has been widely criticised for being potentially illegal and immoral as well as unworkable. Others have pointed to the grubbiness of the negotiations and the willingness of the EU to compromise its values in order to secure a deal with Turkey in an attempt to stem what are

By Marie McAuliffe

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Russia's withdrawal from Syria: Mission accomplished?

There has been widespread confusion among analysts about Russian motives in Syria, confusion that has led to flawed expectations. Russia never sought a 'winner-takes-all' victory. Rather, its entry into the conflict reflected its view that the West was a key obstacle in the way of a political

By Glenn Diesen

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Should I stay or should I go? Europhobia and the consequences of Brexit

You can't blame the Europeans. The original grand European project had the best of intentions. In the shadows of the bitter and bloody World War Two the leaders of France and Germany decided they never wanted to go to war again. The hope was that binding Europe together in an economic union would

By Tim Harcourt

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Brexit: Inside the UK's think-small mentality

There are so many dates to choose from to calibrate the rise of little England to middling England to Britain and Great Britain’s empire. Charting the fall is quicker and easier. The present British Prime Minister, David Cameron is not deluded about Britain’s place in the world and he knows

By Derry Hogue

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Ending a 60 year stalemate: Japan's push to get a peace treaty with Russia

By Tom Holcombe, an intern with the Lowy Institute's International Security Program It's been more than 70 years since World War II ended but there is still no peace treaty between Japan and Russia. Is this about to change? This year marks the 60th anniversary of the 1956 Joint

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How will the Brexit referendum affect the UK's double deficit economy?

In a year that will be dominated by the will they/won't they issue of the UK's referendum on whether it should stay in the European Union, there should be plenty of scope for some detailed analysis of the state Britain will be in when it heads to the polls. However, amid all the bluster over runners

By Michael Martins

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What exactly is Russia up to in the East?

Speaking in Washington last week, Julie Bishop noted Russia was 'talking up its so called pivot to Asia'. In her speech to The Center for a New American Security, the Australian foreign minister referred to speculation of an arms race in Asia. This has been driven, in part, by the military build

By Emma Connors

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Russia ships arms to Fiji: What will be the quid pro quo?

By Anna Powles and Jose Sousa-Santos When the MV Saint Confidence and MV Solidat arrived in Suva Harbour last week to deliver a consignment of donated Russian weapons and equipment to Fiji, it sparked an immediate reaction. opposition MPs and security analysts have made several claims including:

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Putin's popularity, explained

If nothing else, Vladimir Putin is a great political survivor. When protests broke out in Moscow four years ago against his return to the presidency, many in the West wrote him off (a widely cited work proposed to tell How Russia Fell in and Out of Love with Vladimir Putin). However, on 3 December

By Matthew Dal Santo

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Turkey's downing of Russian plane: Russia was warned but Turkey may have over-reacted

The downing of a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 is awkward timing. Signs of a rapprochement in tensions between the West and Russia looked like genuine cooperation was underway in Syria. Russia had stepped up hits directed at ISIS and related infrastructure, and Russian President Vladimir Putin had

By Sarah Lain

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Turkey shootdown: Russian air power has chinks, but campaign has been decisive

News that a Russian strike aircraft has been shot down by Turkey has again focused attention on Russia's air campaign in Syria, which began in late September. The Russians deployed a small but decisive air and naval force to side with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to protect his regime and,

By Geoff Brown

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Russia's Syria operation reveals significant improvement in military capability

Although relatively small in scale, Russia's military operation in Syria has highlighted some major improvements in Russian military capabilities. Compared to the 2008 Georgia War, which was the last time the Russian Air Force operated in a combat environment, the Russian

By Dmitry Gorenburg

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How Iran became the first beneficiary of Russia's Syria Intervention

The first tactical victory emerging from Russia’s intervention in Syria came not on the al-Ghab plain in Syria’s Hama province or around Syria’s divided commercial capital of Aleppo. Rather it came at the end of last month in the peaceful surrounds of Vienna. It was there

By Rodger Shanahan

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Assad's Moscow cameo shows that Russia wants a deal

This week, unexpectedly, Syrian President Bashar Assad turned up in Moscow. He hasn't been seen outside Syria since unrest broke out four years ago. The trip makes two important statements. The first is that, thanks to Russian air strikes, the Syrian state — the actual Syrian state

By Matthew Dal Santo

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On Syria, the West must face facts: Russia can help

Western analysts have been at pains to discern Russia's 'real aims' in Syria. But the best explanation probably remains the simplest: the preservation of the existing Syrian state and its institutions in pursuit of a political settlement that limits the amount of Syrian territory under

By Matthew Dal Santo

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Lesson in Asia crisis for unworkable Greek bailout solution

Lesson in Asia crisis for unworkable Greek bailout solution Leon Berkelmans Australian Financial Review 20 July 2015 Click here for the online text

By Leon Berkelmans

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It's time for Greece to take charge of its own financial crisis

It's time for Greece to take charge of its own financial crisis Stephen Grenville The Australian Financial Review 4 June 2015 Click here for the online text

By Stephen Grenville

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The 2014 Lowy Lecture: Dr Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany

On Monday, 17 November 2014, Her Excellency Dr Angela Merkel, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, delivered the annual Lowy Lecture at the Westin in Sydney

By Angela Merkel

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