Europe

A vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower, inflation higher, sterling weaker, house prices

Sometimes cliches and hyperbole are inescapable. Britain’s decision to leave the EU really is momentous; it really will reshape Europe’s political landscape; things really will never be quite the same again. The implications of this entirely avoidable decision look uniformly bad, and not just

In a 2002 book called Why Britain Should Join the Euro, a team of experts including LSE economist Richard Layard, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volker, European Bank Chief Economist Willem Buiter, Chris Huhne, who sat on the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, and others

By Brett Hogan, Senior Fellow, and John Roskam, Executive Director, Institute of Public Affairs. This week's referendum on whether the UK remains with, or leaves, the EU is primarily about democracy and the right of a sovereign people to live under their own laws.  A vote to leave would be a

As an Australian living in the UK, I have been asked by friends from home what's the word on the street about Brexit. The idea of reporting public opinion as 'the word on the street' brings to mind the infamous George Negus–Margaret Thatcher interview in which the Iron Lady calls out the

Lacking any intellectually sound argument, the Leave crowd centres its appeal on the hot-button issue of migration. Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and company dangle the illusion of a 'pure' British labour market in front of their followers just as Trump promises a Mexican-built wall to those who are

Britain leaving the EU could signal a new shift away from multilateralism as leaders around the world increasingly talk about pulling up the drawbridge against globalisation and retreating into isolationism. This would be a mistake. The EU is enfeebled because its members cannot reach consensus

The Brexit vote has put on hold any major EU business. But one way or the other, the EU will change after 23 June, especially with regard to security. Europe faces three related challenges: Libya and Turkey as key migrant transfer countries; Putinism in the East; and the need to stay globally

Boris Johnson, former London Lord Mayor, tilter for the next British prime ministership, and all round consummate public player, may not have expected to have Geert Wilders as a political bedfellow. Wilders, the ultra–nationalist, anti–Islamic Dutch populist, has joined Johnson in harking

Next month, Britain will vote on whether to leave the European Union. How are both sides' campaigns affecting British politics? How would either outcome affect Britain's relationship with the EU? And if Britain votes to stay, what are the prospects for a similar referendum in the future?

The silence from Western capitals as ISIS fled Palmyra was as deafening as it was understandable. In Syria, history has refused to follow the script. On 2 October last year, US President Barack Obama warned that 'a military solution alone. . . an attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad is

There has been widespread confusion among analysts about Russian motives in Syria, confusion that has led to flawed expectations. Russia never sought a 'winner-takes-all' victory. Rather, its entry into the conflict reflected its view that the West was a key obstacle in the way of a political

There are so many dates to choose from to calibrate the rise of little England to middling England to Britain and Great Britain’s empire. Charting the fall is quicker and easier. The present British Prime Minister, David Cameron is not deluded about Britain’s place in the world and he knows

In a year that will be dominated by the will they/won't they issue of the UK's referendum on whether it should stay in the European Union, there should be plenty of scope for some detailed analysis of the state Britain will be in when it heads to the polls. However, amid all the bluster over runners

By Anna Powles and Jose Sousa-Santos When the MV Saint Confidence and MV Solidat arrived in Suva Harbour last week to deliver a consignment of donated Russian weapons and equipment to Fiji, it sparked an immediate reaction. opposition MPs and security analysts have made several claims including:

The downing of a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 is awkward timing. Signs of a rapprochement in tensions between the West and Russia looked like genuine cooperation was underway in Syria. Russia had stepped up hits directed at ISIS and related infrastructure, and Russian President Vladimir Putin  had

    Although relatively small in scale, Russia's military operation in Syria has highlighted some major improvements in Russian military capabilities. Compared to the 2008 Georgia War, which was the last time the Russian Air Force operated in a combat environment, the Russian

This week, unexpectedly, Syrian President Bashar Assad turned up in Moscow. He hasn't been seen outside Syria since unrest broke out four years ago. The trip makes two important statements. The first is that, thanks to Russian air strikes, the Syrian state — the actual Syrian state