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Geo-economics

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History rhymes on Greek debt

Just about everyone agrees that the Greek problem has been kicked down the road again, and probably not even very far.  The fantasy nature of the 'agreekment' is clear. Let's put to one side, for instance, a structural reform program which demands that Sunday be mandated as a work-day. This might
By Stephen Grenville
20 Jul 15
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Russia gives way to China in BRICS and SCO

This month saw a super summit of two organisations that are significant for both Russia and China. The 7th BRICS summit and 15th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, both held in Ufa, Russia, included the typical member-state declarations confirming cooperation on major issues such as
By Sarah Lain
17 Jul 15
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Peak box? Global container trade is slackening

In a little-noticed interview, the chief of Panama's Canal Authority concedes that 'the world and the canal were unlikely to ever again see the booming container trade that characterised the 1990s and early 2000s' due to shifting manufacturing patterns and American thrift. Obviously, he has
By Julian Snelder
02 Jul 15
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BRICS New Development Bank moves ahead quietly

While Beijing's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has won overwhelming support (to the surprise of many, including China itself), another bank headquartered in China seems to be flying under the world's radar. Few people have heard of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB). This was the
By Ye Yu
25 Jun 15
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Still debating inequality, 40 years on

Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-first Century put inequality centre-stage in the economic debate. But the topic has been around for a long while. Brookings has recently republished Arthur Okun's 40 year-old Equality and Efficiency: The Big Trade-off, The launch was an opportunity to bring
By Stephen Grenville
25 May 15
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China-Russia: An uneasy friendship

The China-Russia relationship is the world's most important, and the best between any two great powers, Xi Jinping told Vladimir Putin a couple of years ago. Last week, at the Kremlin's V-Day celebration, their ties were reaffirmed in grand style. Some observers dismiss the partnership as an '
By Julian Snelder
15 May 15
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China's dangerous cyberwar strategy

There's an 'Uber for X', goes the little ditty, celebrating the ubiquitous infiltration of the online 'sharing economy.' It seems Uber's business model can be turned to virtually all our needs, and a global ecosystem of app buttons has popped up on our smartphones. As in so many things, however,
By Julian Snelder
14 May 15
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China's economic march into Pakistan

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is nothing short of a 'fate changer', said Pakistani Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal, the man behind the historic project. The excitement appears to be mutual, as China has shown equal enthusiasm for the project throughout a two-day visit by Chinese President
By Hussain Nadim
23 Apr 15
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Negative interest rates: We are flying blind

We live in strange economic times. Depositors in Denmark are paying interest to their banks and borrowers are being paid when they take out a loan. The basic principles of finance have been turned on their head. One commentator has noted that 'something economists thought was impossible is
By Mike Callaghan
10 Mar 15
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Julie Bishop goes to Tehran

To everyone's surprise, it was announced on Monday that Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop intends to travel to Tehran in April 2015. The visit isn't about the nuclear negotiations with Iran. After all, while Australia would rather not see Iran go nuclear, it isn't exactly a foreign policy
By Dina Esfandiary
25 Feb 15
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A currency war would be no bad thing

The European Central Bank has finally begun to engage in quantitative easing. The euro depreciated on the news, which is good for the Europeans but bad for the rest of the world, right? It's another currency war – a zero sum game leading to, at best, nothing but debased currencies . At least that'
By Leon Berkelmans
18 Feb 15
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The IMF's pessimism is misplaced

When the IMF produced its last World Economic Outlook in October, one of the risks it forecast was a possible oil price increase. A US$25 per barrel increase, the IMF said, would take at least 0.5% off global economic growth. Now, even with the change in oil price twice as large and in the opposite
By Stephen Grenville
27 Jan 15
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Oil drops 50%, world shrugs

What does the fall in the price of oil do for global economic growth? If the price of oil had swiftly risen by 50%, economic commentators would be calling this an economic disaster. In fact the price has fallen by 50% since June last year, yet this ray of good news hasn't pierced through the
By Stephen Grenville
12 Jan 15
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Sanctions and the coming Russian recession

The IMF, OECD and the Russians themselves have substantially downgraded their Russian economic growth forecasts for 2015. The fall in the oil price is partly responsible. However, heightened 'geopolitical risk' was also mentioned as a drag on activity, along with the effect of sanctions. But just
By Leon Berkelmans
03 Dec 14
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Foreign direct investment: Ten simple questions

1. Why is FDI so sensitive?  Here is an impolite truth about international commerce: governments, even 'liberal capitalist' ones, are obsessed with sovereignty. Foreign direct investment (FDI) represents a breach of sovereignty. This year's Lowy Institute Poll shows that most Australians view FDI
By Julian Snelder
12 Jun 14
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