Global Issues

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Iran nuclear deal opens door for Syria diplomacy

The US and Russia are reportedly promoting a concert-of-powers approach to new negotiations over Syria. Although any movement toward a political solution will be limited by the unwillingness of ISIS and other Islamists to engage in such a process, recent intelligence contact between the Syrians and

By Bob Bowker

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Lebanon's garbage crisis reveals political paralysis

It's 2014 and it's a beautiful summer evening in Lebanon. As the heat of the day subsides, and the rubicund sun slowly sinks into the shimmering azure sea, breathe deep and you can inhale a malodorous scent that gently wafts up from the pile of burning trash emanating from the Karantina waste

By Vanessa Newby

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This week in Jakarta: Diplomacy, deals and the death penalty

Indonesia's President Jokowi will welcome Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Jakarta today, making it his third meeting with an international leader this week. Jokowi hosted British Prime Minister David Cameron on Monday and visited Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Tuesday in a

By Catriona Croft-Cusworth

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Labor’s unsettling dilemma

Labor’s unsettling dilemma Alan Dupont The Australian 24 July 2015 Click here for the online text

By Alan Dupont

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Indonesia: engagement through communication and culture has barely begun

In a new Lowy Institute Paper, former ONA analyst Ken Ward makes the case for 'more realistic' expectations for the Australia-Indonesia relationship. He writes that despite years of Australian governments prioritising the relationship, it continues to be marked by tensions and crises. The recent

By Catriona Croft-Cusworth

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Indonesia: We don't have to be condemned to crisis

Ken Ward is to be congratulated for a straight forward and sober analysis of the Australia-Indonesia relationship. In his own matter of fact style, Ken takes us through a complex relationship and provides unique understanding and insight. His core point is that the Australia-Indonesia

By Andrew Parker

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Are we on the threshold of a United States of Europe?

Four days ago, French President François Hollande declared his in-principle commitment to the creation of a 'euro government, with the addition of a specific budget and a parliament to ensure democratic control.' This is more an opening gambit in a debate about the terms of putative

By Matthew Dal Santo

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Australia's PNG solution: The seeds of sectarianism?

As part of the 'Sectarianism and Religiously Motivated Violence' Masters course run by the Lowy Institute's Rodger Shanahan at ANU's National Security College, students are asked to write an article on contemporary sectarian conflict. This piece by William Stoltz was judged the best of those

By William Stoltz

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Interview: Sadegh Zibakalam on the Iran nuclear deal

Sadegh Zibakalam is a prominent Iranian intellectual and political commentator and a Professor of Political Science at the University of Tehran. I spoke with him from Tehran: Q. Is this a good deal for Iran? How significant are the concessions made by Iran to reach this agreement? Obviously it'

By Anneliese Mcauliffe

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History rhymes on Greek debt

Just about everyone agrees that the Greek problem has been kicked down the road again, and probably not even very far. The fantasy nature of the 'agreekment' is clear. Let's put to one side, for instance, a structural reform program which demands that Sunday be mandated as a work-day. This might

By Stephen Grenville

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Russia gives way to China in BRICS and SCO

This month saw a super summit of two organisations that are significant for both Russia and China. The 7th BRICS summit and 15th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, both held in Ufa, Russia, included the typical member-state declarations confirming cooperation on major issues such as

By Sarah Lain

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Syria: World dithers as new refugee crisis looms

It remains too early to predict the collapse of the Assad regime, or the way in which it might end, although the possibility of 'catastrophic success' on the part of the jihadist opposition is weighing on minds in Washington. What is clear, however, are grounds for serious concern about the

By Bob Bowker

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Iran nuclear deal: Surrendering to grim reality

The conclusion of the Iran nuclear deal – or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, to give it its formal title – has already guaranteed us one thing: mutually assured hyperbole. Barrages of outrage were being fired even before the deal was signed. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

By Anthony Bubalo

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Things only get worse for Greece as migrant smuggling surges

In a week in which international news focused on the Greek debt crisis and the possibility of a Grexit, scant attention has been paid to the arrival from Turkey of thousands of smuggled Syrian, Afghan and other migrants by boat to several Greek Islands. Yet the two are connected, and both are likely

By Marie McAuliffe

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China's record shows it isn't ready for global leadership

Michael Thawley's comments on China's present global leadership credentials and ambitions are correct and phrased in the refreshingly direct manner Australians usually take as a badge of national pride and uniqueness. The fact that his comments caused such a stir in Australia (and seemingly in

By Malcolm Cook

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Sino-Pakistan civil nuclear cooperation: A growing challenge to the global nuclear order

The Pakistani newspaper Dawn declared that at least 1200 people had died in Karachi, capital of the worst affected Pakistani state, Sindh, during the recent week-long heatwave. The effects of the abnormally high temperatures have been exacerbated by local infrastructure that has struggled to cope;

By Matthew Cottee

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SCO summit marks steady rise of India in China's worldview

This year's Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Heads of State Council Meeting, being held in Russia on 10 July, promises to be the most productive in years. Pakistan and India will likely be confirmed as full members (although ascension may not occur until 2016), a move Moscow has long

By Dirk van der Kley

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Kuwait's disenfranchisement of Bidun leads to growing ISIS threat

Late last month, in conjunction with attacks at a beach resort in Tunisia and a 'lone wolf' attack in eastern France, a suicide bomber struck the Imam Al-Sadeq mosque in Kuwait City, killing 27 and injuring 222 people. In the days after the suicide attack, Government-sponsored billboards began

By Anneliese Mcauliffe

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Iran has made big nuclear concessions in Vienna

Another seven days to reach an agreement; that's what the P5-1 decided this week when they weren't able to meet their 30 June deadline for a final deal on Iran's nuclear program. While some differences remain, both sides have come too far to walk away. The potential agreement achieves Western

By Dina Esfandiary

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Is Egypt falling into an Islamist insurrection?

Islamist insurrection has returned to Egypt. There has been a significant growth in the sophistication of the targeting, conduct and lethality of terrorist acts, a crisis of political legitimacy for the Egyptian Government, and the virtual abandonment of any separation of executive and judicial

By Bob Bowker

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Beijing should hasten slowly on AIIB

The establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) reached another milestone on Monday when 50 of the 57 founding members signed the AIIB's Articles of Agreement. Seven countries are still sorting out domestic requirements before signing. China's Finance Minister Jiwei Lou and

By Mike Callaghan

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China makes its formal climate-change pledge

China's long-anticipated formal pledge to international climate change negotiations, it's 'intended nationally determined contribution' or INDC, has arrived. China's target is a 60% to 65% reduction in the emissions-intensity of the economy by 2030 pegged at 2005 levels, with carbon dioxide

By Frank Jotzo

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Middle East and small island states top priorities as New Zealand takes on UNSC presidency

Six months into its membership of the UN Security Council, New Zealand will get to wield the gavel at the famed horseshoe table in New York over the course of this month. Occupying the president's chair will be the Kiwi's new Permanent Representative, Gerard van Bohemen, a refreshingly direct and

By Nick Bryant

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Is the US Congress the main impediment to a rules-based order?

President Barack Obama finally has authority from the US Congress for advancing the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a signature foreign policy of his final term in office. The TPP aims to establish a free trade zone around the Pacific Rim covering 40% of the global economy, while excluding China

By Malcolm Jorgensen

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Four observations about the AIIB's Articles of Agreement

With the signing of the AIIB's Articles of Agreement in Beijing yesterday, how is the Bank shaping up? Here are some key things that struck me reading the Agreement: Membership The Bank's members are split into two groups: regional and non-regional. Regional members include those countries

By Philippa Brant

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IMF belatedly rethinks austerity

When we get enough perspective to write a balanced history of the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent feeble recovery, fiscal policy mistakes will surely feature largely in the narrative. In the form of a new IMF paper, we are beginning to see that history taking shape, and with it a

By Stephen Grenville

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Who are you calling radical, radical?

Fear of ISIS, faltering economies and resentment over rising immigration from war-torn Iraq and Syria has resulted in a surge in right-wing populism in Europe and the UK. Here in the UK, following the departure of three sisters with their nine children to join ISIS, and the emergence of the first

By Lauren Williams

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BRICS New Development Bank moves ahead quietly

While Beijing's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has won overwhelming support (to the surprise of many, including China itself), another bank headquartered in China seems to be flying under the world's radar. Few people have heard of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB). This was the

By Ye Yu

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'LOpht' and the inherent vulnerabilities of the internet

Over the past month The Washington Post has published an awesome series on the internet's inherent vulnerabilities, and how its founders never envisioned its users 'attacking one another.' Here is part 1 and part 2. Below are extractions from part 3, which follows the 1990s hacking collective '

By Brendan Thomas-Noone

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Five points that get lost about the Greek debt crisis

Rather than focus on the blow-by-blow developments of the umpteenth meeting in the Greek crisis, here are some higher level issues that often get lost in the summitry din: At the moment, the parties are negotiating over a disbursement of €7.2 billion. This is the last €7.2 billion to be

By Leon Berkelmans

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MRC bows out of Don Sahong discussions

There has been little news of the much criticised proposed dam at Don Sahong in the far south of Laos since the beginning of the year, when the Mekong River Commission (MRC) arranged for a series of public meetings to be held in member countries to discuss the dam. From the start, these meetings

By Milton Osborne

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How America failed the Waterloo test

Two hundred years ago last Friday, British and allied troops defeated Napoleon at Waterloo. Exiled in April 1814 to Elba after his defeat by the Sixth Coalition, by March 1815 Napoleon had escaped and returned to Paris. Much of the army of Louis XVIII, the newly installed King of France, deserted to

By Matthew Dal Santo

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Liberalism, China and the internet

'It's not that laws aren't relevant' said MIT Media Lab co-founder Nicholas Negroponte during the 1990s, 'it's that the nation-state is not relevant...The internet cannot be regulated.' Negroponte's assessment has not aged well, but to be fair, he was not alone in his belief. Digital activist

By Brendan Thomas-Noone

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Lowy poll: On China and energy, Australia maintains its sunny disposition

Overall, Australians continue to feel secure in the face of rising instability in the world and terrorism threats at home, according to the latest Lowy Institute poll. But that sense of security is declining. 80% of those asked how safe they feel about world events responded positively in 2015.

By Euan Graham

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Not appy in Melanesia

Everyone's talking about mobile phone apps. In Australia, apps are becoming a part of everyday life. You can check for real-time updates on your bus route, assess your alcohol intake, or manage your shopping list. There are so many specialised apps, it's impossible to catalogue them all. In the

By Amanda Watson

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Yuan deserves a place in the IMF basket

Yuan deserves a place in the IMF basket Stephen Grenville Nikkei Report 11 June 2015 Click here for the online text.

By Stephen Grenville

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The road to Paris: Ten days and counting

The latest round of negotiations for the UN's Framework Convention on Climate Change closed in Bonn last Friday with mixed results. With ten formal negotiating days left until crucial climate negotiations resume in Paris later this year, the clock is ticking. Bonn Climate Change Conference, 1 June

By Erwin Jackson

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Indonesia under SBY: Stability, stagnation, or both?

'What's in a name?' Shakespeare's Juliet asks. Quite a lot, as things turned out for her. And so it is for the just-published proceedings of the ANU Indonesian Update, titled The Yudhoyono Presidency: Indonesia's Decade of Stability and Stagnation. A 'mini' version of the Update was held at the

By Stephen Grenville

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AIIB: US is not the only loser, and China is not such a big winner

The recent rush by Western countries to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) before the 30 March deadline set by China was widely, and rightly, seen as a policy failure for the US. Earlier, the US had openly opposed the bank. The US has also resisted reform of the Bretton Woods

By Robert Wihtol

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Still debating inequality, 40 years on

Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-first Century put inequality centre-stage in the economic debate. But the topic has been around for a long while. Brookings has recently republished Arthur Okun's 40 year-old Equality and Efficiency: The Big Trade-off, The launch was an opportunity to bring

By Stephen Grenville

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Diplomats, trolls and memes

Barack Obama's tweeting entranced the media earlier this week, but he isn't the only US official making Twitter-related headlines; the social media service has recently played host to a number of high-profile disputes involving senators, ambassadors and spokespeople

By John Gooding

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Australia can play a part in ending Indonesia's abusive 'virginity tests'

The commander of Indonesia's armed forces, General Moeldoko, has strong views about criticism of the abusive 'virginity tests' imposed on female recruits and the fiancées of military officers. 'So what's the problem? It's a good thing, so why criticize it?' he told reporters in Jakarta on 16 May

By Phelim Kine

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Assad's regime is brittle, and it may fall fast

It is not yet possible to say whether, when and how the Syrian regime may fall. But recent military setbacks, and an objective analysis of the challenges the regime faces in the longer term, strongly suggest that its future is increasingly precarious. The momentum of the military conflict has

By Bob Bowker

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ICT companies and internet freedom

How should ICT companies like Google, Facebook and Twitter conduct themselves when operating in states that crack down on media freedom? Should they comply with sometimes repressive and arbitrary laws to maintain market share, or should they stand up for a free internet? According to the 2014

By Aim Sinpeng

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Asian economies still growing

Despite gloomy talk about slowing economic growth, Asia has continued to grow strongly, and the IMF has forecast this will continue this year and next. Asia is still by far the most dynamic region in the world, accounting for 40% of world GDP but nearly two-thirds of global growth. Look, too,

By Stephen Grenville

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Digital Asia links: Pakistan's cyber bill, Chinese social media, LINE hacking, smartphones in India and more

The Asia Pacific is the most dynamic digital landscape in the world, home to the fastest adopters of new technologies and the largest concentration of mobile and social media users. An escalation in online activism, changing cyber dynamics, developments in digital diplomacy and the exploitation of

By Danielle Cave

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Twitter for diplomats: Libya incident illustrates trade-offs

Danielle Cave has argued that Australia could benefit from a less cautious approach to digital diplomacy. For example, the increasing informality of Foreign Minister Julie Bishop's Twitter presence has led to new audiences. Would Buzzfeed have bothered to interview Bishop if she hadn't agreed to

By John Gooding

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What the G20 can do about infrastructure

Infrastructure is now a standard item on the G20 agenda. Serious infrastructure shortages are ubiquitous. With global economic growth slow, ample construction capacity and interest rates at historic lows, there seems to be an opportunity to address the infrastructure gap. But many governments see

By Stephen Grenville

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Is the G20 getting serious about climate change?

The G20 does not have a great track record when it comes to climate change. This is a problem, because the group includes the world's main greenhouse gas emitters. G20 countries have agreed to a global target not to warm the earth more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels as part of the UN

By Hannah Wurf

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Digital Asia links: Nepal earthquake special

Those monitoring the earthquake response will already be well acquainted with the #NepalEarthquake hashtag, but they should also subscribe to this Twitter list. How Facebook (via Safety Check) and Google (via Person Finder) helped connect people immediately following the 25 April earthquake.

By Danielle Cave

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