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International Economy

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Globalisation’s next wave: Podcast out now

The mass commercialisation of artificial intelligence, machine learning technologies and automation, combined with outsourcing to lower income countries is about to cause massive upheavals and job losses in developed economies. That’s according to my guest in this episode of Rules Based Audio,

By Kelsey Munro

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Doubtful merits of cheap money

Originally published in The Australian Financial Review

By Stephen Grenville

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Economic risks of Brexit are big but unclear

Originally published in the Nikkei Asian Review

By Stephen Grenville

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How we got tangled up in US dollar politics

This piece was originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Leon Berkelmans

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The future of Papua New Guinea: Old challenges for new leaders

Papua New Guinea’s next generation of leaders should take a new approach in seeking to turn around negative trends in law and order, education, and health. Emerging leaders could make bold and innovative policy interventions in key areas to unblock barriers to progress

By Jenny Hayward-Jones

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Asian financial markets should keep calm and carry on

Asian financial markets should keep calm and carry on Stephen Grenville Nikkei Report 15 September 2015 Click here for the online text

By Stephen Grenville

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It’s time to consider negative interest rates to bolster growth

It’s time to consider negative interest rates to bolster growth Leon Berkelmans The Australian 12 September 2015

By Leon Berkelmans

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The G20 and the Future of International Economic Governance

The G20 has become a key international forum since it was set up in 1999. When Australia began its presidency of the 2014 summit in Brisbane, many commentators suggested that Australia’s chairing of the G20 would reinvigorate it. This timely book looks at what that meeting achieved and what has

By Mike Callaghan, Tristram Sainsbury

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US global economic leadership: Responding to a rising China

In this Analysis, Lowy Institute Research Fellow Tristram Sainsbury examines the evolving global economic leadership roles of the United States and China

By Tristram Sainsbury

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Trade protectionism in Indonesia: Bad times and bad policy

In this Analysis, Arianto Patunru and Sjamsu Rahardja highlight the protectionist shift in Indonesia, and argue that this will harm Indonesia’s economic prospects

By Arianto Patunru, Sjamsu Rahardja

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Australia and climate change negotiations: at the table, or on the menu?

In this Analysis, Howard Bamsey and Kath Rowley argue that any failure to pay proper, high-level attention to the current international climate change negotiations raises several risks to the national interest. Strong, constructive engagement in those negotiations by Australia would serve climate

By Howard Bamsey, Kath Rowley

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How much debt is too much

How much debt is too much? Stephen Grenville Nikkei Report 3 March 2015 Please click here for the online text

By Stephen Grenville

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Greek politicians have to learn to break promises

Greek politicians have to learn to break promises Stephen Grenville The Australian Financial Review 24 February 2015

By Stephen Grenville

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Low oil prices provide a fleeting chance for reform

Low oil prices provide a fleeting chance for reform Stephen Grenville Nikkei Asian Review 22 January 2015 Please click here for the online text

By Stephen Grenville

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China, the G20 and global economic governance

In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Hugh Jorgensen and Dr Daniela Strube examine China’s approach to global economic governance. The paper argues that China will seek a greater role in governance processes, but will pursue a combination of approaches involving both existing Bretton Woods

By Hugh Jorgensen, Daniela Strube

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G20 2014: The G20 Brisbane Summit, inequality, energy and anti-corruption

The 12th edition of the G20 monitor contains an overview from John Lipsky on the G20’s role in global governance after the global financial crisis; a paper by Geoff Weir on the G20, Thomas Piketty, and inequality; thoughts from Hugh Jorgensen and Christian Downie on multilateral energy governance

By Mike Callaghan, Christian , Hugh Jorgensen, John Lipsky, Charles Sampford, Geoff Weir

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G20: dealing with too-big-to-fail banks, corporate tax avoidance, and development

This issue of the G20 Monitor addresses the ‘too big to fail’ dilemma of major financial institutions, combating tax evasion and avoidance through ‘base erosion and profit shifting’ (BEPS), and a report from the ‘G20 and Development’ conference hosted by the G20 Studies Centre and

By Mike Callaghan, Stephen Grenville, Daniela Strube

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Think20 2014: Progress report on Australia’s G20 presidency

Leading analysts from influential think tanks from 11 countries across the world provide their interim assessment of the Australian G20 presidency in this report. They all participated in last year’s Think20 meeting in Sydney, organised by the Lowy Institute, and are now discussing whether

By Mike Callaghan, Barry Carin, Sergey Drobyshevsky, Pavel Trunin, Katharina Gnath, Claudia Schmucker, John Kirton, Stephen Pickford, Andrés Rozental, Guven Sak, José Siaba Serrate, Rei Tang, Yong Wang, Maria Monica Wihardja, Ye Yu

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G20 2014: perspectives from business, civil society, labour, think tanks and youth

G20 engagement partners from Business (B20), Civil Society (C20), Labour (L20), Think Tanks (T20) and Youth (Y20) have each provided a contribution for this issue of the Monitor. Each address how the groups are organising their contribution to the G20 process in 2014, their priorities for the

By Mike Callaghan, Sharan Burrow, Tim Costello, Robert Milliner, Holly Ransom, Heather Smith

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1997 all over again? Not quite

1997 all over again? Not quite Dr Stephen Grenville AO Nikkei 18 March 2014

By Stephen Grenville

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Policy ideas for the Brisbane G20 Summit: Reflections on Think20 2014

This issue of the Monitor contains reflections on Think20 2014. The Think20 involves think tanks and academics from G20 countries, and aims to feed policy ideas into the G20 process. The Monitor contains papers covering the four policy areas discussed at Think20 2014: The G20’s economic and

By Mike Callaghan, Hugh Jorgensen, Daniela Strube

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The challenge of repairing G20

In this article for Nikkei Report, Stephen Grenville outlines the challenges the G20 faces in its reform process.

By Stephen Grenville

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Good start to G20 but hard road to deliver results

In this opinion piece for The Australian Financial Review, Mike Callaghan argues Australia's chairing of the G20 is off to a good start but there is still a long road to deliver results

By Mike Callaghan

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2014 Australia-India Roundtable: Outcomes Statement

Relations between India and Australia have reached a new maturity, based on deepening connections between their societies, economies, education sectors and policy establishments. This positions these two democracies well to work together to advance their interests in a shared Indo-Pacific region.

By Rory Medcalf, C Raja Mohan

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Global cooperation among G20 countries: responding to the crisis and restoring growth

At the outbreak of the global financial crisis, 2008, the G20 was widely acknowledged as helping prevent an even more serious decline in the global economy. It helped to calm the panic in financial markets and articulate a set of possible policy options to restore global stability and growth.

By Mike Callaghan

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Nothing to fear but fear

In this op-ed, Dr Michael Fullilove, Executive Director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy, discusses America's 'war-weariness', drawing comparisons with Roosevelt's decision to support the Allies in World War II

By Michael Fullilove

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Judicious ambition: international policy priorities for the new Australian Government

In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, a number of Lowy Institute experts outline what they believe should be some key international priorities for the new Australian Government.

By Michael Fullilove, Anthony Bubalo, Rory Medcalf, James Brown, Mike Callaghan, Linda Jakobson, Jenny Hayward-Jones, Philippa Brant, Khalid Koser

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Development and the G20

This issue of the G20 Monitor examines the topic of development and the G20. In line with the coverage of G20 agenda items in previous issues of the Monitor, the focus is on where the G20 can add value

By Mike Callaghan, Annmaree O’Keeffe, Robin Davies, Steve Price-Thomas, Sabina Curatolo, Julia Newton-Howes , Michelle Lettie

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Financial regulation and the G20

This issue of the Monitor examines financial regulation and the role of the G20. It is part of a series examining specific issues on the G20 agenda. The next Monitor will cover international development and the G20.

By Mike Callaghan, Hugh Jorgensen, Stephen Pickford, Richard Gray, Steven Bardy, Graham Hodges, Ross Buckley

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G20 needs to pay attention to WTO

In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Mark Thirlwell writes that the WTO needs to be prepared for the ways in which looming mega-regional deals will change the way global trade is done and that the G20 needs to do more to support the multilateral trading system

By Mark Thirlwell

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Saving multilateralism: the G20, the WTO, and world trade

The multilateral trading system, an important contributor to global peace and prosperity, is in trouble. In a new Lowy Institute Analysis for the G20 Studies Centre, Mark Thirlwell argues that it is time for G20 Leaders to work harder to save it.

By Mark Thirlwell

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Trade and the G20

This issue of the Monitor examines international trade and the role of the G20. Over coming months the Monitor will cover in detail a number of issues that are, or should be on the G20 agenda. The next issue will deal with financial regulation and the role of the G20

By Mike Callaghan, Peter Gallagher, John Ravenhill, Mark Thirlwell, Brett Williams

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The G20 Leaders’ process five years on: an assessment from an Asian perspective

One of the most significant developments in global economic leadership in recent years has been the development of the G20 Leaders’ Summit. After a positive start, particularly with the 2009 London G20 Leaders’ Summit, the G20 has more recently been criticized as losing focus and making

By Mike Callaghan, Hugh Jorgensen, Mark Thirlwell

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Great Southern Lands: Building ties between Australia and Brazil

This report brings together four essays from Australian and Brazilian authors that collectively aim to shed some light on Brazil and its future importance to Australia and the world. It presents a series of perspectives on the modern Brazilian economy, its economic history, its ties with

By Mark Thirlwell, Fernando Cardim, Patrick Carvalho, Tim Harcourt

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Australian model or Australian bubble?

Mark Thirlwell has an essay in the March-April issue of Pacific Standard that takes a look at Australia’s recent economic success and assesses whether we can keep beating the odds. Is Australia’s 21-year run of economic growth the product of a successful economic model?

By Mark Thirlwell

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Observations of Chinese investment in Australia

Last night, the inaugural Lowy Institute-Rio Tinto China Fellow, Professor Zha Daojiong of Peking University, gave a lively presentation on Chinese investment in Australia. Professor Zha is one of China's leading international policy scholars. The talk touched on some controversial issues

By Zha Daojiong

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Global risk into 2013: Time for some cautious optimism?

In comments prepared for the Australian launch of the WEF’s Global Risks Report 2013, Mark Thirlwell takes a look at the risk outlook for the global economy, and asks whether some of the current market optimism is justified

By Mark Thirlwell

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Relaunching the G20

Australia and the world needs a focused and effective G20. But the forum is in danger of losing its way. This Analysis identifies nine key lessons from the G20’s history that can help relaunch it. This should be Australia’s goal when it chairs the G20 in 2014

By Mike Callaghan

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Why Australia trembles as America teeters on the brink

In an opinion piece in The Age, Mark Thirwell discusses the last-minute negotiations to prevent the US economy from plunging lemming-like over the so-called fiscal cliff and back into recession

By Mark Thirlwell

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From the Fall of the Wall to the Fall of the Banks and beyond: three persistent problems for the global economy

In this 2010 working paper, Mark Thirlwell looks at the changing shape of a global economy that was born with the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989.

By Mark Thirlwell

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The spectre of Malthus

In this 2009 Lowy Institute working paper, Mark Thirlwell looks at some initial lessons from the 2007-2008 crisis about living in a resource-constrained world. A revised version of this working paper was published in the journal Survival in June-July 2009: A New Era of Food Insecurity? By Alan

By Mark Thirlwell

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China could be slowing faster than we think

Whilst headline output numbers show China’s economy gliding – more or less – towards a soft landing, several indicators suggest the distinct possibility of a sharper-than-expected slowdown

By Alistair Thornton

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The world economy, Murphy law and Finagle corollary

Over the second half of 2011, the world economy seemed to be sliding inexorably towards another major financial crisis. In the event, actions by an aggressive European Central Bank managed to halt the slide to Eurogeddon. But a fragile world economy remains dangerously vulnerable to adverse shocks

By Mark Thirlwell

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Global fiscal adjustment and trade rebalancing

The emergence of substantial fiscal deficits and a large build-up of government debt in major advanced economies will inevitably lead to a period of fiscal consolidation in coming years.

By Warwick McKibbin, Andrew B Stoeckel

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Chinese perspectives on investing in Australia

China is not only Australia's largest trading partner, but is also an increasingly important supplier of capital. In a Lowy Institute Analysis, John Larum draws on a series of interviews with Chinese investors and their advisors to look at their attitude towards investing in Australia and

By John Larum

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Global fiscal consolidation

One important outcome of the Great Recession has been the rapid accumulation of government debt in many of the world’s developed economies. This growing debt burden represents a potential threat to economic stability, and as a result, the focus of fiscal policy is now shifting from stimulus to

By Warwick McKibbin, Andrew B Stoeckel

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Into the Dragon’s den

While Chinese foreign investment into Australia has been the subject of a great deal of controversy, investment flows moving in the other direction have received much less attention. In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, John Larum reviews Australian foreign direct investment into China and discusses

By John Larum

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Making international development assistance work

Australia’s aid program has been in the news lately, with calls for a wider public debate on the role of overseas aid. But public debate is being shaped by starkly contradictory arguments

By Joel Negin

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Confronting the Crisis of International Climate Policy

Copenhagen failed to produce an agreement on climate change commensurate with the scale of the problem, highlighting the fundamental weaknesses in the existing UN framework.

By Warwick McKibbin, Fergus Green, Greg Picker

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The evolving post-crisis world

In a new paper written as background for the current Asian Development Bank Economic Outlook, Dr Stephen Grenville notes that Asia has come through the Global Financial Crisis well, with Chinese and Indian growth hardly slowing, and quick recoveries in those countries which were adversely affected.&

By Stephen Grenville

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