International Economy

In a new paper written as background for the current Asian Development Bank Economic Outlook, Dr Stephen Grenville notes that Asia has come through the Global Financial Crisis well, with Chinese and Indian growth hardly slowing, and quick recoveries in those countries which were adversely affected.&

This Working Paper, by Warwick McKibbin and Andrew Stoeckel, models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households and international investors in an intertemporal (or DSGE) global model. The model has six

Last month marked the first anniversary of the 2008 power-sharing accord that resulted in the creation of a new unity government in Zimbabwe. Joel Negin and Jolyon Ford assess what Australia can do to assist the country’s re-emergence. 

In a new Policy Brief, Stephen Grenville argues that the Global Financial Crisis has changed the form of the external imbalances problem, but not removed it.   

In addition to the current Global Financial Crisis (GFC), there is a second global crisis: long-term poverty in the third world. 

For the foreseeable future, climate change policy will be considerably more stringent in some countries than in others. In high-cost countries, there will be political pressure to impose border adjustments, or 'green tariffs', on imports from countries with little or no climate policy and low energy

To estimate the emissions reductions and costs of a climate policy, analysts usually compare a policy scenario with a baseline scenario of future economic conditions without the policy. Both scenarios require assumptions about the future course of numerous factors such as population growth,

The Doha round of world trade talks has collapsed. After the negotiations were suspended back in July 2006, Mark Thirlwell wrote that – regardless of the ultimate outcome of the Round – the era of giant, set-piece trade negotiations like Doha and its predecessor, the Uruguay Round, was over. The

Although the Kyoto Protocol has not been effective at reducing emissions, it has been very effective at demonstrating a few important lessons about the form future international climate agreements should take

Sudden capital outflows were at the heart of the 1997-8 Asian Crisis. Ten years later, capital flows are back on the policy agenda, but in a very different context. The countries of East Asia are now getting more inflows than they can effectively absorb and the upward pressure on exchange rates is

Earlier this year in Lowy Institute Paper 18, 'Second thoughts on globalisation', Mark Thirlwell looked at how the globalisation-powered rise of China and India was disconcerting some in the developed world, and prompting a re-evaluation of the costs and benefits of globalisation. This Lowy

Globalisation is one of the key forces shaping the global economy. It is also a policy choice

This Working Paper in International Economics by David Pearce and Warwick McKibbin explores two issues that have emerged in recent policy discussions on the need for price signals to encourage efficient abatement of greenhouse gases. 

After fifteen years of uninterrupted growth, Australia's quiet economic boom shows no signs of ending. 

Since the 1997-98 Asian crisis, the investment decline in East Asia, outside of China, combined with the falling in public and private savings in the United States, has contributed to the surge in global current account imbalances. 

After years of economic underperformance, the Indian economic model has been transformed, and with it, India's growth performance. So much so that the last two years have brought both a widespread rethink on India’s prospects and a wave of foreign portfolio investment. 

In a major new Analysis, Professor Warwick McKibbin and Dr Alexandra Sidorenko explore the implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak on the global economy. 

In this 2005 Lowy Institute Paper, Mark Thirlwell surveys the changing international trade landscape. The inability of policymakers to deliver the Doha Round has become a powerful symbol of the growing strains on the multilateral trading system

This paper examines the implications of the major demographic transition currently under way and over the next 80 years for Japan, the United States, the rest of the OECD, and developing regions. 

In a new Working Paper in International Economics, Professor Warwick McKibbin and Alison Stegman write that assumptions about carbon emissions per person lie behind many future climate projections as well as being the basis of a number of policy proposals. 

This is Chapter 1 in the book, edited by Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song, entitled China: Is Rapid Growth Sustainable, Asia Pacific Press, Canberra, 2004

Indonesia faces a number of important challenges both in the short run and in the longer run. The world economy is currently growing robustly but a number of uncertainties cloud the economic outlook. A strong global economy is being challenged by higher oil prices. 

This Issues Brief by Professor Warwick McKibbin and others explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances.  

In earlier papers, we introduced demographic features into the MSG3 model of the world economy, following the approach of Bryant and McKibbin.