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Australia writes itself out of nuclear disarmament diplomacy

On Friday at the United Nations in Geneva, Australian diplomats called a vote they knew they would lose, split their already modest support base in half, and enraged more than 100 other countries that had been ready to agree to a painstakingly negotiated compromise. For its trouble, Australia gained

By Richard Lennane

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Report shows IMF in need of reform

The IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) recently released its assessment of the IMF’s handling of the euro crisis. It was a damming report. The IMF has been heavily criticised for its response to the euro crisis, particularly its involvement in Greece. As Stephen Grenville has

By Mike Callaghan

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The political dimension of Olympic success

There are times when national and sporting narratives seem almost to be perfectly synchronised. America’s success at the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics, which presaged the Reagan landslide later in the year, offered golden proof that the country’s long national nightmare of Vietnam and Watergate had

By Nick Bryant

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Japan's economy travels a narrow road

Desperate times call for desperate measures. The International Monetary Fund seems to have lost hope that monetary and fiscal policy can shift the Japanese economy out of its deflationary torpor. The IMF, usually the embodiment of conservative mainstream economics, has published this working paper

By Stephen Grenville

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Documentary trailer: Do Not Resist

This is a trailer for a documentary about the fear of terrorism and the militarisation of the US police. There's a memorable shot near the end which seems to tell the whole story: a heavily armoured ex-military vehicle designed for counter-insurgency operations in Iraq drives down a suburban US

By Sam Roggeveen

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Syria: Pity the children

Given the widespread use of social media in the contemporary age, and the lack of basic humanity shown by both the regime and the opposition forces, the Syria conflict should on the face of it engender a feeling of repulsion at the actions of both sides. And to a degree it does. But one of the

By Rodger Shanahan

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Aid & development links: DFAT white paper, aid campaigning, South Sudan chaos and more

Australia’s Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has announced the government will embark on the first foreign policy white paper in 13 years. It will be interesting to see how much Australian aid, the management of which is now firmly ensconced within DFAT, will factor into the review. An

By Jonathan Pryke

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India plays the Balochistan Card with China

Last week Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid down the gauntlet to Pakistan, sending a clear indication that India may be prepared to destabilise Pakistan’s fractious Balochistan province in response to perceived threats. While this represents a very significant change in India’s public

By David Brewster

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Weekend catch-up: Mafia states, Tsarist Russia, women in diplomacy and more

By John Gooding, Digital Editor at the Lowy Institute and Associate Editor at The Interpreter. This week North Korea’s number two diplomat in London, Thae Yong Ho, defected South Korea. Euan Graham (who, through his time as a North Korea specialist in the UK’s Foreign and Commonwealth

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The National League for Democracy’s drug problem

Myanmar's Upper House of Parliament recently approved a proposal calling for 'prompt action' in eradicating drugs in Myanmar. Myanmar remains the second-largest poppy producer in the world (despite recent reports of reduction in output), and is an increasingly significant producer of

By Rhys Thompson

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Against the grand political theory of everything

After the Australian election, I flirted with the notion of a worldwide trend away from globalisation, but on further reflection I am reluctant to embrace fully any grand theory about global political trends. First, the notion that Trump, Brexit, the EU crisis and even Australia's near miss with a

By Sam Roggeveen

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Long Tan: Half a century on, a battle memory interrupts Australia-Vietnam friendship

On Wednesday the Australian government announced its disappointment that the long-planned commemoration ceremony at Long Tan, in southern Vietnam, had been shut down at the last minute by the Vietnamese government. Today marks the 50th anniversary of the battle that killed 18 Australian and possibly

By Helen Clark

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Thae Yong Ho: North Korea’s rogue diplomat extraordinaire jumps the fence

Dramatic news broke this week that Thae Yong Ho, number two at the North Korean Embassy in London, has defected with his family to South Korea. Key North Korean diplomat #ThaeYongHo defects to #SouthKorea https://t.co/L0kbZsscFm pic.twitter.com/xYOzQR8IpT — dwnews (@dwnews) August 17, 2016 He

By Euan Graham

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G20: An essential element in Australia’s international economic diplomacy (Part 1)

Membership of the modern G20 has been an important development in Australian foreign policy, and has quickly formed a key part of our economic diplomacy. The core case for maintaining effort in the G20 is that it offers the chance to progress Australia's economic interests in a way that

By Barry Sterland

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Bracing for the exodus from Mosul

Joint forces are planning a major military offensive to recapture the last major Iraqi city under Islamic State control - Mosul. Fierce fighting is already raging south of the city and the escalation in military activity is likely to have an even greater humanitarian toll than the battle for

By Sarah Ireland

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Putin's plan to restore the Romanovs (Part 3)

Part two of this series examined the public rehabilitation of the Romanov Tsar Nicholas II. This part analyses what the restoration of the Romanovs might mean for Western policy. Could Putin really be planning a restoration of the Romanovs? Of Putin's three 'favourite' philosophers (Vladimir

By Matthew Dal Santo

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Women in diplomacy: Look how far we've come

Last month, Frances Adamson was named as the new Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). DFAT Secretary Frances Adamson (Photo: Commonwealth of Australia/DFAT) I was delighted – partly because I know Frances and think this is a terrific appointment in its own

By Menna Rawlings

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Pacific links: Nauru files, Vanuatu MPs found guilty, PNG legislative moves, Fiji's Rugby sevens and more

By Harriet Smith, an intern with the Lowy Institute's Melanesia Program Fallout from the release of the Nauru Files continues. The Nauru government claimed the reports are fabricated while various groups, including several within the United Nations, have urged Australia to stop offshore processing

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Plenty of holes to be plugged in Southeast Asia's fight against terrorism

Earlier this month a terror cell in Batam island, some 15 kilometres south of Singapore, was discovered before it had a chance to act. While it's debatable whether it was capable of launching a planned 'rocket attack' on the island nation, the incident is another reminder of ever-present threat of

By Zubaidah Nazeer

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The anatomy of a political warning

We’re in a season of warnings. After six Chinese coastguard ships and over 200 fishing vessels sailed close to the Japanese-held Senkaku Islands (also known as the Diaoyu Islands) in the East China Sea, Japan cautioned China over its maritime adventurism. China, meanwhile, has delivered

By Abhijit Singh

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Myanmar's Muslims: A long way down Aung San Suu Kyi's to-do list

When Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy finally came to power in Myanmar last year, there was much scepticism among ethnic minorities as to whether the nobel laureate would speak up for their rights. So far, the new government has not done much to change this view, particularly among

By Jay Song

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Q&A: ABC's flagship soft-power program?

In her address to the Lowy Institute Media Award dinner, ABC Managing Director Michelle Guthrie emphasised the ABC’s soft power potential. Afterwards, Radio National presenter Mark Colvin asked her about what exactly her comments meant (Colvin's question can be heard in full from 38:27 in this

By John Gooding

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May moves: UK's new PM calls time on 'special' friendship with China

It seemed such a good idea at the time. If Britain could mend its political fences with China and engage whole heartedly with the new economic power of China then substantial economic benefits would accrue to the UK. Then Prime Minister David Cameron duly made a properly ritualistic apology for

By Rod Wye

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Aid & development links: Jim Yong Kim, Oxfam's future, where to for Brazil and more

The World Bank has released a new set of safeguards for lending after 'the most extensive consultation ever conducted' by the Bank. Scott Morris assesses the position of both the supporters and detractors of this new set of lending conditions (you can listen to the podcast here). A new paper from

By Jonathan Pryke

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Akihito: Abdicating, myth-busting Emperor a challenge for Japan's nationalists

In mid July, news broke on Japan’s national broadcaster NHK that Emperor Akihito wished to abdicate in favour of his son Naruhito. A week ago, the Emperor released a video message to the people of Japan, inferring that this was indeed his desire. Although the language and tone of the message

By Rikki Kersten

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Kashmir uprising threatens the 'idea of India'

Just under eighteen months ago, Kashmir looked to be at a turning point. State elections in 2014 produced an unlikely coalition of hawks from the ruling BJP and doves from the local PDP. The BJP had historically taken a tough approach to Kashmir, while the PDP had been more sympathetic to Kashmiri

By Shashank Joshi

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Weekend catch-up: Ausgrid, the ABC, asylum seekers and more

By John Gooding, Digital Editor at the Lowy Institute and Associate Editor at The Interpreter. On Thursday evening Jewel Topsfield of Fairfax Media won the 2016 Lowy Institute Media Award (and $20,000) for her reporting from Indonesia. At the ceremony the Institute was addressed by the new ABC

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Applying the Duterte filter to US-Philippine relations

Many hoped and others feared that US-Philippine relations would deteriorate under the Duterte Administration that came into power on 30 June. There are good reasons for this preliminary judgement. The relationship became much closer under the Aquino Administration, highlighted by the

By Malcolm Cook

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Ausgrid decision will hurt Australia-China relations

Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison has blocked both Chinese companies bidding for a 50.4% share of the lease to operate New South Wales electricity distributor, Ausgrid. Morrison said the decision was taken on national security grounds. Somewhat ominously, Morrison's media release only

By James Laurenceson

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Time for a whole-of-nation approach to asylum seekers

In a little over a month's time, a high level meeting to address large movements of refugees and migrants will take place at the UN general assembly in New York. President Obama will host the leaders summit that will call for all member states to pledge their commitment to the international

By Jay Song

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Pacific Island links: Nauru Files, Olympics, ExxonMobil, rice in PNG and more

The Guardian has published 2000 documents leaked from within Australia's offshore detention centre on Nauru. Labeled 'The Nauru Files', they detail the abuse of refugees, with data showing that more than half of the incidents involve children.Australia's Human Rights Commissioner Jillian Triggs has

By Harriet Smith

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More name games in Burma/Myanmar

Regular readers of The Interpreter will know that, over the past few years, this site has closely followed the Australian government's efforts to grapple with the diplomatic implications of the formal change of Burma's name in 1989 to Myanmar. The indications are that this saga may finally be over

By Andrew Selth

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After the referendum, Thailand remains a nation divided

Official results of from Sunday's referendum show that two-thirds of Thais backed the junta-drafted constitution and support enhanced powers for a military-backed senate in selecting a prime minister. Many see this referendum as a test of confidence in military rule, in effect since 2014 when

By Zubaidah Nazeer

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UN secretary-general race: What’s really behind the straw poll results?

Leaked results from last week's second straw poll for the UN secretary-general (SG) race show António Guterres, a former Portuguese prime minister turned UN refugee chief, still in the lead. Guterres garnered an impressive 11 'encourage' votes but has picked up two 'discourage' votes since the

By Sarah Frankel

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Lydia Khalil on Q&A

Last night Lydia Khalil, counter-terrorism expert and Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow, went on a US-election focused episode of Q&A, an ABC current affairs panel show, along with Bob Carr, P. J. O'Rourke, Linda Tirado and Crispin Rovere (who has written frequently for The Interpreter on

By John Gooding

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French submarines and Australia’s 21st century economy

The politics behind the decision to build the Australian Navy's new French-designed submarines in South Australia have been analysed to death. But what about Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s claim that the high-tech program will play a key role in boosting the economy’s competitiveness and

By Alan Mitchell

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Jihadis and Vietcong redux

During the Vietnam War the Vietcong coined the term 'hanging onto the belts' of the enemy as a way of blunting the United States' overwhelming superiority in fire support. In essence the tactic required the Vietcong to fight American and allied forces in such close quarters that indirect

By Rodger Shanahan

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How Islamic State controls 'lone wolves' in Europe

The New York Times revealed more details last week about the activities of Islamic State’s external operations unit, the Amn al-Kharji. Central to the report was an extensive interview with returned German foreign fighter Harry Sarfo. This isn’t the first time Sarfo has spoken to the

By David Wells

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Aid & development links: World Vision strife, cash transfers deliver, refugee insights and more

Australia’s DFAT has suspended funding of World Vision Programs in Palestine, after its country head was charged by Israel over allegations of diverting funds to Hamas. World Vision has welcomed the suspension but remains 'mystified' by the charges. The Guardian has an interview with

By Jonathan Pryke

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Sri Mulyani: Big expectations for Indonesia's new (and former) finance minister

Indonesian President Joko Widodo has reshuffled his cabinet for a second time. 'Tempo' magazine described the appointment of Sri Mulyani Indrawati to her former position as finance minister as 'the return of the prodigal daughter'. The comparison is not entirely accurate: Sri Mulyani hadn't done

By Stephen Grenville

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Post-Brexit Britain can still be a powerful force in the world

It is over 50 years since American Secretary of State Dean Acheson said that Britain had lost an empire but was yet to find a role. Perhaps to the surprise of some of his fellow Americans, Britain remains a serious player in the world despite all that. It has the world's fifth-largest economy; it

By Simon Heffer

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Weekend Catch-up: Australia's international economic engagement and more

By John Gooding, Digital Editor at the Lowy Institute and Associate Editor at The Interpreter. Following last week’s publication of Making the most of the G20, by Tristram Sainsbury and Hannah Wurf, The Interpreter this week hosted a discussion on Australia’s approach to global economic

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Green power has a long way to go

One factor driving energy policies across the world is repeated claims by activists that green energy is gaining substantial market share over its despised fossil fuel competitors. These claims, made for the likes of the Danish, German, Californian and even Chinese grids, are distorting the energy

By Mark Lawson

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Constitutional referendum cannot disguise Thailand's democratic deficit

After Thai police found that voter lists displayed ahead of Sunday's constitutional referendum had been torn down earlier this month, the military government spoke darkly of an organised plot to derail the controversial plebiscite, removed the local police chief, and ordered regional officials to

By Matthew Wheeler

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Jeffrey Grey: 1959-2016

All staff at the Lowy Institute were saddened to learn of the untimely death of Professor Jeffrey Grey of the Australian Defence Force Academy. Professor Grey was a highly regarded military historian, specialising in the First World War. Last month, on the eve of the 100th anniversary of the

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Xi Jinping: A four-year report card

Kerry Brown is the author of CEO, China: The Rise of Xi Jinping, just published by I. B. Tauris. Were China a multi-party democracy and had Xi Jinping been elected by competitive elections in 2012 for a five-year term, a process of assessing his achievements over the last four years would be

By Kerry Brown

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Australia must continue to lead on international economic governance

The Lowy Institute analysis 'Making the Most of the G20', which argues the G20 should be at the centre of Australia's approach to economic engagement, explores many of the themes that will be aired in this debate. Sitting alongside some of our key economic partners at the G20 finance ministers and

By Kelly O'Dwyer

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Along the Karakoram Highway: A photo essay (part 2)

The storied Karakoram Highway (KKH), a modern incarnation of the ancient silk road, is the primary ground transport link between China and Pakistan, and the highest paved road in the world. The existing Highway, completed in 1978, is undergoing a major reconstruction. Along with other transport and

By Arzan Tarapore

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Pacific Island links: PNG's economic outlook, Fiji's rugby sevens, climate change and more

Papua New Guinea's treasury has released the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook report, which provides revised revenue and growth estimates for 2016. The report is a scary document, highlighting how the state of the economy has deteriorated from already dampened expectations in the 2016 budget

By Harriet Smith

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Australia's G20 leadership: Fairly sharing the benefits of growth

The Lowy Institute analysis 'Making the Most of the G20', which argues the G20 should be at the centre of Australia's approach to economic engagement, explores many of the themes that will be aired in this debate. It was inevitable that maintaining relevance would become more difficult over time;

By Wayne Swan

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