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Under reasonable assumptions, China could achieve parity in living standard with Western Europe by 2100, and India by 2150. Climate change, however, may be a key obstacle preventing such a convergence

A Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) has been proposed as a long-term prospect by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC

In this Policy Brief, Malcolm Cook and Mark Thirlwell make the case for a greater role for the G-20 in the international economic architecture

The third Lowy Institute Poll surveys a nationally representative sample of Australians on their attitudes towards the US alliance, the government’s consular responsibilities, migrant worker schemes, and the nuclear threat posed by Iran. It also includes the results of parallel surveys carried out

In a new Policy Brief, Lowy Institute Executive Director Allan Gyngell argues that the Asia Pacific region has too many regional organisations, yet they are still unable to do all the things required of them. This matters at a time when the rising power of China and India presents new challenges

The release of the report by the Prime Ministerial Task Group on Emissions Trading has received a lot of attention. The broad philosophy of that report is based on the McKibbin-Wilcoxen Blueprint, an approach developed by the Lowy Insitute's Professorial Fellow, Warwick McKibbin and Professor Peter

In this 2006 paper, Anthony Bubalo and Mark Thirlwell look at how energy insecurity, driven by high demand and uncertainty over supply, is fuelling both an intensification of Asian dependence on Middle Eastern oil and a quest for equity oil

Reflecting on the repeated failure of the Doha Round of international trade negotiations, this paper takes a look back at the stresses and strains that afflicted an earlier globalisation episode to look for lessons about the current difficulties facing economic liberalisation

The 2006 Lowy Institute Poll involved parallel public opinion surveys in Australia and Indonesia. The report contains responses from both countries to questions on foreign and security policy, global affairs, and each other. The 2006 poll was conducted in partnership with the Chicago Council on

After years of economic underperformance, the Indian economic model has been transformed, and with it, India's growth performance. So much so that the last two years have brought both a widespread rethink on India’s prospects and a wave of foreign portfolio investment. 

In a Lowy Institute Paper entitled The Paramount Power: China and the Countries of Southeast Asia, Dr Milton Osborne examines how China's relations with Southeast Asia have dramatically changed for the better in the last ten years

The emergence of China as an economic power has important implications for energy use and environmental outcomes at the local, regional and global levels. China is currently the world's third largest energy producer and the second largest energy consumer. 

The world is in the midst of a significant demographic transition with important implications for the macroeconomic performance of the global economy. This paper summarises the key features of the current and projected future demographic changes that are likely to have macroeconomic effects.&

This paper examines the implications of the major demographic transition currently under way and over the next 80 years for Japan, the United States, the rest of the OECD, and developing regions. 

In a new Working Paper in International Economics, Professor Warwick McKibbin and Alison Stegman write that assumptions about carbon emissions per person lie behind many future climate projections as well as being the basis of a number of policy proposals. 

This is Chapter 1 in the book, edited by Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song, entitled China: Is Rapid Growth Sustainable, Asia Pacific Press, Canberra, 2004

This paper discusses the importance of asset markets and financial flows in general equilibrium models. Asset markets and financial flows play an important role in the adjustment process to economic shocks and policy changes. 

In Sensible climate policy Professor Warwick McKibbin criticises the Kyoto Protocol that had just entered into force in February 2005. He predicts that the policy would not succeed in reducing emissions and argued that it was a mistake to continue to follow the ‘targets and timetables’ approach

This Lowy Institute Paper by Mark Thirlwell assesses the emergence of India as a major new player in today's global economy. 

The prediction of future temperature increases depends critically on the projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. Yet there is a vigorous debate about how these projections should be undertaken and how reasonable is the approach of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) published by

On 8 February Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile concluded an agreed text for an Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement. This Issues Brief provides a preliminary assessment of the agreement, based on the limited information now available

This Issues Brief suggests that a key theme over the past year has been the management of external imbalances in a world economy that is not only increasingly integrated but which is simultaneously undergoing a sustained geographic shift in the distribution of economic weight towards Asia

Developments including the rise of vertically specialised trade and the growing internationalisation of production, broader and deeper goods and financial market integration, the extension of international trade to the previously “non-tradeable” services sector, and the spread of international

Southeast Asian industrial exports are now facing intense competition from Chinese industrial exports. How much more would competition increase with China's recent accession to the World Trade Organization? Would Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand (the ASEAN-4) de-industrialise and return