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TV trailer: 1600 Penn

The fact that the new sitcom 1600 Penn is being screened at the White House tells you that it probably won't be too cutting, and indeed, the trailer is far from screamingly funny and looks a bit derivative. Pass

In defence of the IMF: At least it's consistent

Mike Callaghan is Director of the Lowy Institute's G20 Studies Centre.  IMF Chief economist Olivier Blanchard recently confirmed that he was 'right about being wrong' in underestimating the effect of fiscal tightening on European economic growth. When he first suggested, in the IMF's October

Economic forecasting: Broken models

Economists are the butt of much mirth about their forecasting ability, but the recent performance may be getting beyond a joke. Failing to predict the precise outcome is one thing: being consistently wrong in the same direction is harder to explain, and very unhelpful for the policy-making

Welcome to 2013

Welcome to 2013 and welcome back to The Interpreter for another year of international policy blogging, which is supposed to start today. I say 'supposed' because your editor forgot his age last weekend and hurt his back while trying to move a fridge. Please be patient for the next few days

The spectre of Malthus

In this 2009 Lowy Institute working paper, Mark Thirlwell looks at some initial lessons from the 2007-2008 crisis about living in a resource-constrained world. A revised version of this working paper was published in the journal Survival in June-July 2009: A New Era of Food Insecurity? By Alan

The dangers of denial: nuclear weapons in China-India relations

Is a dangerous nuclear competition emerging between the two most populous nations? In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Fiona Cunningham and Rory Medcalf warn of nuclear dangers as China and India rise. The authors call for a strategic stability dialogue embedded in mutual respect, to ensure possible

The evolving post-crisis world

In a new paper written as background for the current Asian Development Bank Economic Outlook, Dr Stephen Grenville notes that Asia has come through the Global Financial Crisis well, with Chinese and Indian growth hardly slowing, and quick recoveries in those countries which were adversely affected.&

Central banks and capital flows

Sudden capital outflows were at the heart of the 1997-8 Asian Crisis. Ten years later, capital flows are back on the policy agenda, but in a very different context. The countries of East Asia are now getting more inflows than they can effectively absorb and the upward pressure on exchange rates is

More second thoughts

Earlier this year in Lowy Institute Paper 18, 'Second thoughts on globalisation', Mark Thirlwell looked at how the globalisation-powered rise of China and India was disconcerting some in the developed world, and prompting a re-evaluation of the costs and benefits of globalisation. This Lowy

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