Next-gen jihad in the Middle East

In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Lowy Institute Research Director Anthony Bubalo argues that the current turmoil in the Middle East is incubating a new generation of jihadists.

Syria has become a magnet for foreign fighters, including Australians. The political crisis in Egypt is being exploited by extremists and could result in a decade of jihadist violence there. New ungoverned spaces and conflict zones are opening up across the region which can be exploited by extremists. Power struggles between regional powers are exacerbating the instability.

“In many respects the current conditions for the creation of extremist movements and ideas in the Middle East are worse than those that saw the emergence of al-Qaeda”, said author Anthony Bubalo.

Bubalo argues that this has significant implications for Australia. Of immediate concern are Australians returning from Syria that may have been radicalised by their experience, gained military skills, or established links with international extremist groups. But the instability in the broader region could also throw up other threats in the future, even if their precise nature is not yet evident.

Australians still remain concerned about the threat posed by terrorism. Bubalo’s report previews the forthcoming Lowy Institute Poll in which 65% of Australians see international terrorism as a critical threat to Australia’s security.

“Australia must not lose sight of developments in the broader Middle East, even as it focuses more intensely on strategic developments in Asia and the Indo-Pacific”, he said. 

Bubalo argues that Australia will need to sustain its counter-terrorism efforts in coming years. He also recommends that Australia appoint a dedicated special envoy or coordinator for the Middle East. The envoy would provide a means for the government to better understand how instability in the region might materialise into future terrorist threats.

“In the coming years Australia will face a more complex and serious terrorist threat than it did after 9/11. Keeping a weather eye on the Middle East today will ensure that the Australian Government is better placed to deal with that threat tomorrow”, he concludes.