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People | experts John Edwards

Senior Fellow

Lowy Institute

Areas of ExpertiseAustralian economic policy; monetary policy; international economics; banking

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Beyond Fortress Australia

The reality of living in a pandemic has dawned on Australia. Covid cases at the time of writing are high and still climbing. The virus is here to stay. Equally clear is that ring-fencing the country from the world — the ‘Fortress Australia’ policy — is no longer viable

By Hervé Lemahieu , Michael Fullilove, Emma Connors, Richard McGregor, John Edwards, Jonathan Pryke, Ben Bland, Lydia Khalil, Natasha Kassam, Jenny Hayward-Jones, Sam Roggeveen, Alex Oliver

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Australia's economic centre has shifted from Sydney to Canberra

Originally published in The Canberra Times

By John Edwards

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Reconstruction: Australia after COVID

A discussion of what is in store economically for Australians after COVID-19, by one of Australia's leading economic voices

By John Edwards

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Covid recovery, in Australia and the world

Drawing from his new Lowy Institute Paper, John Edwards looks at the fallout of the pandemic and where things are going.

By John Edwards

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Our toughest job lies ahead

It is five months since the last reported Covid-related death in Australia. But it is how we handle unemployment that will be one of the most critical issues. Originally published in The Australian

By John Edwards

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Covid economic recovery a long-term test for Australian leadership

Australia faces rising unemployment, increased debt and lower living standards, but the challenges are not insuperable.

By John Edwards

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The Costs of COVID: Australia's Economic Prospects in a Wounded World

Despite a COVID-constrained global economy, rising unemployment and high government debt, meeting the fiscal challenge is within Australia's means

By John Edwards

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Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Inquiry into the Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Australia's Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade

Joint submission by Lowy Institute researchers to the JSCFADT inquiry into the implications of the pandemic.

By Ben Bland, Alexandre Dayant, John Edwards, Michael Fullilove, Bonnie S Glaser, Stephen Grenville, Natasha Kassam, Lydia Khalil, Hervé Lemahieu , Richard McGregor, Shane McLeod, Annmaree O’Keeffe, Alex Oliver, Jonathan Pryke, Roland Rajah, Sam Roggeveen, Ben Scott

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Curtin’s call to the nation

Originally published in The Australian

By John Edwards

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Emerging From COVID: Policy Responses To The Pandemic

In this new feature, Lowy Institute experts provide policy recommendations for Australia to address issues that are critical to our nation’s — and the world’s — successful emergence from the pandemic

By Alex Oliver, Natasha Kassam, Richard McGregor, Roland Rajah, Ben Scott, Sam Roggeveen, Hervé Lemahieu , Stephen Grenville, Alyssa Leng, John Edwards, Ben Bland, Alexandre Dayant, Shane McLeod, Jonathan Pryke

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Emerging from COVID: Policy Responses to the Pandemic

Lowy Institute experts provide policy recommendations for Australia to address issues that are critical to our nation's — and the world's — successful emergence from the pandemic

By Ben Bland, Alexandre Dayant, John Edwards, Stephen Grenville, Natasha Kassam, Hervé Lemahieu , Richard McGregor, Shane McLeod, Alex Oliver, Jonathan Pryke, Roland Rajah, Sam Roggeveen, Ben Scott

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The facts about global trade in face masks, ventilators and test kits

Policies that injure global trade in medical products would hurt the US and Western democratic allies more than most.

By John Edwards

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After coronavirus: Where the world economy will stand

Debt will grow, for government, business and individuals alike, with interest rates to stay low – but all under control.

By John Edwards

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The US is elbowing Australia and allies in a race for the China market

Australia needs to be very wary of how Donald Trump’s “unbelievable deal” will play out.

By John Edwards

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US-China trade deal, phase one done: Now what?

The detail in the present truce in the US-China trade war carries some bad news for Australia.

By John Edwards

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China-US trade war: For all the bark, not much bite

Yes, there has been a reduction in exports between China and the US, but there are other reasons besides tariffs.

By John Edwards

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Signs of a deal between US and China, and a rethink

Both countries have good reasons to cool off the two-year trade war.

By John Edwards

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US-China trade talks: No deal yet, but a breakthrough of sorts

Donald Trump has begun talking about “phases”, suggesting he has a more realistic expectation of what it is possible.

By John Edwards

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A light amid the gloom of the US-China trade war

Everything leaks in Washington, except the 150-page summary of the trade talks – and that’s a good sign of seriousness.

By John Edwards

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US, China now have a three-week window to avert trade talks collapse

There will have to be a negotiation to enable negotiations to resume, and quick, otherwise the US election will intrude.

By John Edwards

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Trump and Xi need a trade deal and they need it soon

With the US election looming, the window for an agreement is closing – yet the two sides are closer than often assumed.

By John Edwards

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Why Trump and Xi will do a deal

Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By John Edwards

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Averting a global calamity? Trump and Xi at the G20

The outlines of a trade deal between the United States and China are there. But without a return to the negotiating table, the dispute could rapidly escalate, magnifying the damage to world growth

By John Edwards

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The first rule of a trade war: know thine enemy

When tackling China over subsidies, countries might reflect on which comparable industry support they might forgo.

By John Edwards

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What might a US-China trade deal look like?

A deal will imply that economic separation – or “decoupling” – of the two giant economies has not been pursued.

By John Edwards

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Economic conflict between America and China: A truce declared, the talks begin

The real issue in the US–China trade negotiation is the dramatic change in China’s economy evident over the past decade

By John Edwards

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US-China trade: joke’s over

The US is in trade rows with all of its major trading partners at once.

By John Edwards

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Intellectual property: the big risk in US–China ties

China will certainly respond to a forthcoming US investigation and exports penalties with sanctions of its own.

By John Edwards

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No urgency in cutting Australian corporate tax

Foreign direct investment in Australia has boomed despite warnings of a sharp loss of international competitiveness.

By John Edwards

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Trump’s tariffs: not a trade war, yet

China’s steel and aluminium exports are tiny – punitive US tariffs on China’s manufacturing would be recklessly damaging.

By John Edwards

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What a US–China trade war would look like

The problem for the global economy is not what the Trump administration has done so far. It is what it may contemplate doing next.

By John Edwards

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Bob Menzies clearly believed Japan could crush us

Originally published in The Australian

By John Edwards

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‘Economic aggression’: Donald Trump picks a fight with China

In the economic realm, China is not only rapidly becoming a superior power, but also one with the same partners as the US.

By John Edwards

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Converging approaches on Chinese investment

UK and Australian angles on foreign investment are becoming more alike, driven in both countries by the same policy perplexity.

By John Edwards

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John Curtin: normal nice human being in world at war

Originally published in The Australian

By John Edwards

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Central banks and the inflation conundrum

Australia was once a global inflation champ, but no more.

By John Edwards

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Anti-migration sentiment the chief threat to openness

Muslims are certainly a target for Senator Hanson, but I’ve little doubt their integration into Australian society is proceeding in much the same way as past waves of migration.

By John Edwards

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Global growth: Choppy forecasts, but smooth sailing

While forecaster moods have been volatile, global growth overall has been pretty consistent – and pretty good.

By John Edwards

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Politics slows Saudi reform plans

Ambitious reform plans go to the core of the regime's power. Little wonder the pace is slowing.

By John Edwards

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The Australian economy - not so exceptional after all

Given the recent weaker growth in wages and output, along with a lacklustre jobs market, it's time for another look.

By John Edwards

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Is the relationship between growth and inflation shifting?

The RBA leadership is clearly thinking about the possibility that the relationship between inflation and output growth may have altered in an enduring way.

By John Edwards

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Trump’s slow adjustment to global trade realities

European leaders probably recognise that US presidents are usually difficult on trade issues, and for all his efforts Trump has yet to prove himself more unsatisfactory than his predecessors.

By John Edwards

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Rising interest rates and the RBA

My guess is the RBA is already thinking about a program of rate increases that will continue for several years.

By John Edwards

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No, wait! Globalisation makes a comeback

The G7 meeting comes at a time when economic globalisation is widely said to have stalled, if not moved into reverse, but there is plenty of data that suggests otherwise.

By John Edwards

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Convention likely to win out in Trump-Xi meeting

The issues Trump and Xi do not discuss may be as telling as those they do.

By John Edwards

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The global economy: Surviving Trump just fine

Whatever may be happening to the global security system, the global economy is growing, prospering, and is every day more closely integrated.

By John Edwards

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How Trump's economic plans will come unstuck

At some point the Trump Administration will have to confront the fact that the US economy is in better shape than Trump depicted during the campaign.

By John Edwards

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Australia's economy in 2017: Bad news for jobs but no recession

John Edwards wrties in the Australian Financial Review on the prospects for the Australian economy in 2017. Photo: Getty Images/Brett Hemmings

By John Edwards

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How to be exceptional: Australia in the slowing global economy

While the US and UK have seen political rebellions against migration and trade, Australia has tranquilly entered its 26th year of growth. Australia can in coming decades increase living standards faster than most other advanced economies, despite gloomy prophecies and slowing global growth.

By John Edwards

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Brexit is England's silliest decision since Suez

It's now over 70 years since British Prime Minister Winston Churchill told his Australian counterpart John Curtin of his wish to see a united western Europe, of which Britain would be a member. The allies had fought their way up the southern Italian peninsula but the Normandy landing was still a

By John Edwards

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