Rodger Shanahan's Bio | People

People | experts Rodger Shanahan

Research Fellow, West Asia Program

Lowy Institute

Areas of ExpertiseMiddle East security issues; Political Islam; Shi’a Islam

Contact Contact Rodger Shanahan

Connect @RodgerShanahan

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Iran: Sanctions vs sympathy

The US policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran will look increasingly untenable as the coronavirus pandemic escalates.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Syria: The battlefield rules

Every action prompts a reaction, as a success for Assad forces an angry response from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Typology of Terror Interactive

This project documents the characteristics of Australians’ contribution to global jihad in the Islamic State era. The dataset represents the largest open-source examination of Australian terrorist offenders to date. It collates data on Australian citizens and residents charged with terrorism

By Rodger Shanahan, Jennifer Percival

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Middle East Peace Plan: A once in a lifetime deal, not in a good way

A distinctly pro-Israel bias to the whole enterprise seems to confirm a Palestinian view of a plan as “dead on arrival”.

By Rodger Shanahan

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In Tehran, a tragic error threatens political wreckage

As questions around the Flight 752 disaster persist, Iranian politicians seek cover.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Trump’s unpredictability confounds his allies, and now his enemies

The hit on Qasem Soleimani has fundamentally changed the rules of the game between the US and Iran.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Middle East protests: Careful what you wish for

For all the good intentions and international support, a local patronage system is the true lodestone on the region.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Terrorism: The recidivist risk

The London Bridge attack again shows the challenge of what to do with terrorists who have served their sentences.

By Rodger Shanahan

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When is mental illness an excuse for terrorism?

Originally published in The Australian

By Rodger Shanahan

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Typology of Terror — The Backgrounds of Australian Jihadis

In order to better understand what motivates Australian radical islamists to join or support a terrorist group it is first necessary to get a better understanding of who they are. This working paper examines data sets from 173 Australian citizens and residents to paint a picture of our own

By Rodger Shanahan

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Trump hands Syria an easy win

The Kurds will have to make their peace with Bashar al-Assad. Western governments will worry about ISIS fighters becoming bargaining chips. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Rodger Shanahan

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Dispatches from the front (row)

Japan – through its team and wonderful crowds – put on a rugby festival worthy of the name.

By Rodger Shanahan

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The women of ISIS and the fog of law

The case of an Australian stripped of her citizenship illustrates the complexity of handling the fallout of extremism.

By Rodger Shanahan

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US shift on Syria puts Canberra in a bind

Trump’s announcement may or may not be followed through, but it has serious implications for Australia either way.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Remembering Timor – a soldier’s view

Personal connections matter and can have a lasting influence 20 years on.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Raising the stakes in the Gulf’s game of reprisals

With global energy markets rattled, the tit-for-tat exchanges have reached a new level.

By Rodger Shanahan

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The Middle East air campaign, unmasked

Recent events reveal the evolving confrontation between Israel and Iran.

By Rodger Shanahan

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The reluctant coalition

Australia will back the US and join a maritime force in the Persian Gulf, but with no rush to deploy – which is telling.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Iran: Washington calls on Canberra

Politics more than military necessity will decide if Australia backs Trump’s push for a Persian Gulf security force.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Tanker-for-tanker

Iran’s retaliation after an earlier tanker seizure should have been obvious, so why wasn’t Britain better prepared?

By Rodger Shanahan

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How best to contain Iran’s provocations

Originally published in The Australian

By Rodger Shanahan

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Donald Trump's plan to bomb Iran shows strategy gap

Originally published on ABC Online

By Rodger Shanahan

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The limits of unilateral action against Iran

Washington is finding maximum pressure campaigns have limitations and bringing along friends and allies could help.

By Rodger Shanahan

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The relativity of the death penalty

Where is the outrage over the capital punishment sentence for ISIS fighter and Australian citizen Ahmed Merhi?

By Rodger Shanahan

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The clock is ticking on tensions with Iran

The US hasn’t got much to show a year after pulling out of the nuclear deal, but Iran’s patience is also running out.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Great disrupter’s Mid-East missteps

Originally published in The Australian

By Rodger Shanahan

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Why do jihadis do what they do?

Mainstream Muslim clerics can best challenge the violent fringe of their religion and defeat toxic ideas. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Rodger Shanahan

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Sri Lanka attacks: Still many puzzles to solve

If NTJ is responsible for this complex, multi-target suicide attack, it probably got external help.

By Rodger Shanahan

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ISIS: the generational problem

For all the concern about the children of foreign jihadis, thousands of ISIS detainees in Iraq pose a bigger danger.

By Rodger Shanahan

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The cost of terror: two tales of country life

The small town of Loxton in South Australia has seen bravery and betrayal, a microcosm of a globalised Islamist threat.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Near death on the River Nile

A marathon journey dodging traffic jams and distracted taxi drivers, all to get a feel for the Middle East.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Who bears responsibility for the children of ISIS?

There are 70 Australian minors affiliated with ISIS in Syria. Yet there is no policy or direction on repatriation.

By Jennifer Percival, Rodger Shanahan

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Five questions about the Christchurch attack

There may not be a direct causal link between the attack and conservative political rhetoric. It is too early to tell.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Captured Islamic State fighters pose dilemma for Western countries

Originally published in The Australian

By Rodger Shanahan

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Behind every mujahid there is a mujahidi

In Syria or Australia, childbearing or weapons-wielding, everyone’s contribution to violent jihad can be different.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Inflated counts of civilian casualties collateral of modern war

Complex modern conflict makes identifying the cause of the war dead impossible. This seems to have eluded some lobbies.

By Rodger Shanahan

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The supreme challenge facing Iran

Originally published in The Australian

By Rodger Shanahan

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Syria: emerging consequences of the US withdrawal

Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from Syria has actors scrambling to make sense of the ramifications.

By Rodger Shanahan

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What happens next? Trump’s sudden Syria exit

Exactly what “moving on” means will become apparent in the months ahead but such a rapid exit has obvious ramifications.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Curious: Canberra mirrors Moscow on Jerusalem

Originally published in Sydney Morning Herald

By Rodger Shanahan

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Veterans fight back against the marketing enemy at the gates

Veterans respond to the call for the public to thank them for their service.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Jerusalem embassy move down and out of three counts

Originally published in The Australian

By Rodger Shanahan

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Bourke Street: debating terrorism

Too often, the same debates dominate in the wake of a suspected terrorism attack, offering too little insight.

By Rodger Shanahan

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“Would you like thanks with that?”

Veterans are already well supported before shoehorning an American tradition to Australia and ignores service of others.

By Rodger Shanahan

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What should Australia do about Saudi Arabia?

If Saudi complicity in the death of Jamal Khashoggi is shown, Canberra must make a stand to express disgust.

By Rodger Shanahan

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Making dissident Jamal Khashoggi disappear a case of ham-fisted overreach

Originally published in The Australian

By Rodger Shanahan

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Where’s Jamal?

The bizarre disappearance of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi could complicate Saudi relations with the West.

By Rodger Shanahan

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The danger of mission creep in Syria

American troops went to support locals to defeat ISIS, but staying until Iranian forces withdraw is a different goal.

By Rodger Shanahan

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EU and Iran push back against US sanctions

The sight of the EU and Iran jointly announcing a plan to blunt a signature US initiative must infuriate Washington.

By Rodger Shanahan

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The crowded skies of Syria

Another plane destroyed shows despite a three-year intervention, Russian commanders don’t always know what they should.

By Rodger Shanahan

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