Covid-19 and Indonesian monetary policy
Funding the deficit is a necessary short-term measure, but “free money” can lead down a dangerous path.
Saturday 26 Sep 2020 | 19:31 | SYDNEY
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Stephen Grenville
Nonresident Fellow
Lowy Institute
Areas of ExpertiseRegional economic integration; Australia's economic relations with East Asia; international financial flows and the global financial architecture; financial sector development in East Asia
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Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Inquiry into the Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Australia's Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade
Joint submission by Lowy Institute researchers to the JSCFADT inquiry into the implications of the pandemic.
Modern Monetary Theory and mainstream economics converging
Stephen Grenville gives a detailed account in the Eureka Report on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), which after a decade on on the periphery of economic discussion, has recently surged in popularity
Keeping Indonesia’s economy afloat through the COVID-19 pandemic
Well-crafted emergency financing from Bank Indonesia and international partners such as Australia could be pivotal in getting Indonesia through this crisis
Emerging From COVID: Policy Responses To The Pandemic
In this new feature, Lowy Institute experts provide policy recommendations for Australia to address issues that are critical to our nation’s — and the world’s — successful emergence from the pandemic
Emerging from COVID: Policy Responses to the Pandemic
Lowy Institute experts provide policy recommendations for Australia to address issues that are critical to our nation's — and the world's — successful emergence from the pandemic
Normality is at least a couple of years away
While the medical prognosis looks less alarming, the economic prospect is as grim as ever. The Reserve Bank has done what it can, now it's up to the government, writes Stephen Grenville. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review
Beware letting inexact science of modelling drive policy
Originally published in The Australian
Helicopter money is not what you think
Originally published in the Australian Financial Review
How to win the war: some valuable lessons from history
Comparison with wartime sacrifices might put the necessary inconveniences into perspective. Nonresident Fellow Stephen Grenville writes on COVID-19. Originally published in The Australian
The World After COVID
How will the COVID-19 pandemic change the world? Lowy Institute experts provide their analysis
The World After COVID‑19
How will the coronavirus pandemic change the world? Lowy Institute experts provide their analysis
Helicopter money’s unearned popularity
Originally published in the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum
The balance between medicine and economics
Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Stephen Grenville asks if the policy response to Covid-19 strikes the right balance in the debate between epidemiologists and economists, moderated by the public-relations experts. Originally published in The Australian
Lockdown: A dilemma for the economic optimists
The severe containment measures needed to combat Covid-19 are squashing the upbeat forecasts of just a few weeks ago.
The government's bazooka is biggest, not the RBA's
Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Stephen Grenville evaluates the RBA's response to COVID-19. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review
Vital to focus on fiscal policy as recession inevitable
It goes without saying that the medical response to the pandemic should have the highest policy priority ... On the economics of the pandemic, initial reactions have been quickly outdated. Originally published in The Australian
The RBA's job is to back banks, not bail out gamblers
It’s quite a while since I was at the Reserve Bank, but one of my tasks there was to draft replies to letters received. So let me try my hand at responding to Christopher Joye’s "Virus gets upper hand in battle against central banks" (AFR, March 13). Originally published in the Australian
The IMF ponders international capital flows
Foreign capital flows without effective debt resolution is like Christianity without the threat of hell.
Central bank reputations at risk from impossible targets
Central banks around the world are caught in the same bind: inflation is below their target. Originally published in The Australian
Reports of China’s economic death are greatly exaggerated
No-one denies a transition from poverty to riches is littered with traps and dead ends – but nor is failure inevitable.
Book review: A very private enterprise
Aggressive advocates of free markets, the Koch brothers amassed a fortune by exploiting market imperfections.
Favourites of 2019: Ross Garnaut on climate
Escaping the gloomy view, a positive look at the opportunities for renewable power might just match the public mood.
Book review: China, the US, and the big break
Detailed reporting enlivens what is a substantive and important look at the world’s big economic test.
What’s so strategic about baby-food?
China will often want a far larger ownership stake in Australian enterprises than we are comfortable with.
Should ScoMo support Trump’s “madman” tactics?
The risk of going all-in with America’s trade war
China’s “currency manipulation” in context
China previously mirrored the policies of other emerging economies, with the same success – only on a huge scale.
Coordinating with America to pressure China on trade
Beijing should pay legitimate intellectual property charges yet the system is an imperfect way to reward innovation.
Progressive US politics meets radical economics
Originally published in The Australian
Rethinking fiscal policy: Progressive US politics meets radical economics
Recognition of the need for greater government intervention in the economy is increasingly shaping the US political debate, with this shift paralleled among prominent economists
The limits to global monetary policy
Already in “easy” mode and without the flexibility to move interest rates lower, other policies are needed.
America’s fiscal policy rethink reaches Japan
A radical call urges Japan delay tackling chronic deficit and huge debt – and, of course, build no bridges-to-nowhere.
Trump’s tariff tussle
Given America’s cherished belief in free enterprise, Washington should be delighted its rival is handicapping itself.
The useful myth of central bank independence
If Alan Greenspan was “the Maestro”, then Fed chair Jay Powell needs also play to the orchestra to resist Donald Trump.
The sudden interest in Modern Monetary Theory
It’s often said there is no such thing as a free lunch, and issuing cash is not a limitless source of funding.
Book review: Winners take all
Giridharadas reminds us that “win-win” is the motto elites live by.
A Tobin tax: an idea whose time has come for Indonesia
How to make portfolio flows “sticky” and avoid short-term swings in foreign sentiment sees an old idea gain new life.
Why the gloom? Global economic prospects
Reality, when it arrives, may turn out boringly routine – more-of-the-same rather than the drama of “Winter is coming”.
US-China tensions: is this about economics or security?
The challenge might seem to be China’s economic behaviour rather than old-fashioned power rivalry.
“America First” and global economic governance
Halcyon days when the US built international institutions that would benefit all and foster globalisation – over?
US versus China: the economic model
Donald Trump might be a Republican, but not of the Ronald Reagan ilk, and it shows in his approach to China.
Trump and intellectual property
Inventors have a right to be rewarded for their innovation, don’t they? It depends.
The Economist: a change of heart
In the face of effusive predictions, don’t break out the champagne. Keep calm and carry on.
Do Trump’s tariffs much matter?
A retreat? Maybe. But an end to globalisation? No.
A balancing act for IMF’s new Chief Economist
The challenge will be to find the line in-between economics and diplomacy in an organisation dictated by tradition.
Trump and rules-based order for global trade
Trump didn’t cause the problems, his presidency has just put them in the spotlight, without practical policy solutions.
What did the 2008 crisis cost America?
A new study attempts to put a number on the ongoing cost of an enormously costly episode of misguided policies.
Who has been best for Australia: Trump or Obama?
It should concern Australia that Trump treats his potential enemies better than his loyal long-time friends.
Can the Fed resist Trump’s pressure?
The Federal Reserve faces a president from the world of real estate, where low interest rates are always good.
The future of work
“Zero-sum competition”, “distributional”, and “gig” jobs are what most of us can look forward to.
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