Analyses

This is Chapter 1 in the book, edited by Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song, entitled China: Is Rapid Growth Sustainable, Asia Pacific Press, Canberra, 2004

This paper discusses the importance of asset markets and financial flows in general equilibrium models. Asset markets and financial flows play an important role in the adjustment process to economic shocks and policy changes. 

In Sensible climate policy Professor Warwick McKibbin criticises the Kyoto Protocol that had just entered into force in February 2005. He predicts that the policy would not succeed in reducing emissions and argued that it was a mistake to continue to follow the ‘targets and timetables’ approach

Anthony Bubalo and Mark Thirlwell examine China and India's growing thirst for imported oil, particularly from the Middle East, and consider some of the possible longer term strategic implications associated with this trend. 

Anthony Bubalo, research fellow, argues that Yasser Arafat's death could have longer term positive implications for both Palestinian political reform and efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but in the short term the impact will be more limited. Arafat's immediate successors will not

This Issues Brief by Professor Warwick McKibbin and others explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances.  

John Bowan, a former senior Australian foreign policy official, and consultant to Beijing's successful Olympic bid, examines how Beijing and China won the 2008 Games and what this will mean for China and its position in the world.The 2008 Olympics will open China to unprecedented international

In earlier papers, we introduced demographic features into the MSG3 model of the world economy, following the approach of Bryant and McKibbin. 

While the global environment waits for the world to reach some form of agreement on climate policy, developing countries such as India are entering a phase of higher economic growth. The decisions on investment in energy systems that will be made in India in coming years will have an important

On 8 February Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile concluded an agreed text for an Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement. This Issues Brief provides a preliminary assessment of the agreement, based on the limited information now available

This Issues Brief suggests that a key theme over the past year has been the management of external imbalances in a world economy that is not only increasingly integrated but which is simultaneously undergoing a sustained geographic shift in the distribution of economic weight towards Asia

Developments including the rise of vertically specialised trade and the growing internationalisation of production, broader and deeper goods and financial market integration, the extension of international trade to the previously “non-tradeable” services sector, and the spread of international

Southeast Asian industrial exports are now facing intense competition from Chinese industrial exports. How much more would competition increase with China's recent accession to the World Trade Organization? Would Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand (the ASEAN-4) de-industrialise and return