Analyses

Understand the big issues

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Bush is from Mars, Kerry is from Mars too

Although there are significant differences in style and substance between George Bush and John Kerry, the similarities in foreign policy terms are more striking than is sometimes understood. From Australia's perspective, the fundamentals of our relationship with the US are excellent and the alliance

By Michael Fullilove

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Transpacific trade imbalances: causes and cures

This Issues Brief by Professor Warwick McKibbin and others explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances.

By Warwick McKibbin

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Parallel worlds

Depending on the way we look at the world at present it is possible to see the international system as unipolar or multipolar, as intensely inter-connected or deeply divided. Each of these angles of view reveals important truths about the global environment.Allan Gyngell looks at the lessons

By Allan Gyngell

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The Beijing 2008 Olympic Games: China in the limelight

John Bowan, a former senior Australian foreign policy official, and consultant to Beijing's successful Olympic bid, examines how Beijing and China won the 2008 Games and what this will mean for China and its position in the world.The 2008 Olympics will open China to unprecedented international

By John Bowan

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Israel withdrawal from Gaza: a role for Australia?

This paper explores the possibility that further Australian military forces will be sought for the Middle East, in this case for a peacekeeping force in the Gaza Strip.

By Anthony Bubalo

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Modelling global demographic change: results for Japan

In earlier papers, we introduced demographic features into the MSG3 model of the world economy, following the approach of Bryant and McKibbin.

By Warwick McKibbin

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Long run projections for climate change scenarios

The prediction of future temperature increases depends critically on the projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. Yet there is a vigorous debate about how these projections should be undertaken and how reasonable is the approach of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) published by

By Warwick McKibbin

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Climate change policy for India

While the global environment waits for the world to reach some form of agreement on climate policy, developing countries such as India are entering a phase of higher economic growth. The decisions on investment in energy systems that will be made in India in coming years will have an important

By Warwick McKibbin

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Election Watch. Japan party system: shifting the political axis, releasing economic reform

This Issues Brief examines how changes to the Japanese political system, reflected in the November 9 election results, offer new hope for structural economic reforms that would benefit Australia

By Malcolm Cook

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The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: a preliminary assessment

On 8 February Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile concluded an agreed text for an Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement. This Issues Brief provides a preliminary assessment of the agreement, based on the limited information now available

By Mark Thirlwell

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Globalization and disease: the case of SARS

The outbreak of SARS in late 2002 has alerted the world to the potential economic costs of epidemics. The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of the global economic impacts of the SARS disease as well as provide a more comprehensive approach to estimating the global consequences of

By Warwick McKibbin

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The international economy in 2003…

This Issues Brief suggests that a key theme over the past year has been the management of external imbalances in a world economy that is not only increasingly integrated but which is simultaneously undergoing a sustained geographic shift in the distribution of economic weight towards Asia

By Mark Thirlwell

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Revaluing the renminbi...

There are strong parallels between today’s US-China tensions over trade and US-Japan economic relations in the 1980s

By Mark Thirlwell

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Are Australian policymakers operating in a new global economy?

Developments including the rise of vertically specialised trade and the growing internationalisation of production, broader and deeper goods and financial market integration, the extension of international trade to the previously “non-tradeable” services sector, and the spread of international

By Mark Thirlwell

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Is the international trading system fragmenting? The dilemma for Australian trade policy

The post-World War II international trade policy framework is being challenged by a proliferation of bilateral and regional trading arrangements. Australia faces a choice over whether to join this preferential trade bandwagon and risk collateral damage to the multilateral trading system, or to go no

By Mark Thirlwell

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The consequences of China WTO accession on its neighbours

Southeast Asian industrial exports are now facing intense competition from Chinese industrial exports. How much more would competition increase with China's recent accession to the World Trade Organization? Would Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand (the ASEAN-4) de-industrialise and return

By Warwick McKibbin

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Estimates of the costs of Kyoto-Marrakesh versus the McKibbin-Wilcoxen Blueprint

In this paper we update our earlier estimates of the cost of the Kyoto Protocol using the G-Cubed model, taking into account the new sink allowances from recent negotiations as well as allowing for multiple gases and new land clearing estimates.

By Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen

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Changes in equity risk perceptions: global consequences and policy responses

The current weakness in the global economy has generated a debate on the likely outlook for the world economy and the appropriate response for monetary policies.

By Warwick McKibbin

What if the realists are right?

Coping with crisis: How much “resilience” is on display?

Beyond Covid, Australia’s big stake in India’s military reorganisation

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Analyses

Bush is from Mars, Kerry is from Mars too

Transpacific trade imbalances: causes and cures

Parallel worlds

The Beijing 2008 Olympic Games: China in the limelight

Israel withdrawal from Gaza: a role for Australia?

Modelling global demographic change: results for Japan

Long run projections for climate change scenarios

Climate change policy for India

Election Watch. Japan party system: shifting the political axis, releasing economic reform

The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: a preliminary assessment

Globalization and disease: the case of SARS

The international economy in 2003…

Revaluing the renminbi...

Are Australian policymakers operating in a new global economy?

Is the international trading system fragmenting? The dilemma for Australian trade policy

The consequences of China WTO accession on its neighbours

Estimates of the costs of Kyoto-Marrakesh versus the McKibbin-Wilcoxen Blueprint

Changes in equity risk perceptions: global consequences and policy responses

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