Analyses

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A credible foundation for long term international cooperation on climate change

In this Working Paper in International Economics, the Lowy Institute's Professor Warwick McKibbin and Peter Wilcoxen write that to succeed in reducing carbon dioxide emissions, a climate policy must establish credible long-term incentives for investments in new energy sector capital and in research

By Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen

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Fuelling confrontation: Iran, the US and the oil weapon

In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, Anthony Bubalo, Michael Fullilove and Mark Thirlwell explore the prospect and implications of Iran's using oil as a weapon in its current confrontation with the international community over the nuclear issue

By Michael Fullilove, Mark Thirlwell, Anthony Bubalo

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The testament of Solomons: RAMSI and international state-building

The unrest in Honiara of 18-19 April underlines the fragility of Solomon Islands as well as the sheer difficulty of rebuilding weak states. The background to and key features of the Australian-led Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) were set out in this March 2006 Analysis by Dr

By Michael Fullilove

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Global macroeconomic consequences of pandemic influenza

In a major new Analysis, Professor Warwick McKibbin and Dr Alexandra Sidorenko explore the implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak on the global economy.

By Warwick McKibbin

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Iran, the international community and the nuclear issue: where to next?

In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Anthony Bubalo and Michael Fullilove examine the likely trajectory of efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear question, an issue that is likely to lead the international foreign policy agenda in 2006.

By Michael Fullilove, Anthony Bubalo

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Environmental consequences of rising energy use in China

The emergence of China as an economic power has important implications for energy use and environmental outcomes at the local, regional and global levels. China is currently the world's third largest energy producer and the second largest energy consumer.

By Warwick McKibbin

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The global macroeconomic consequences of a demographic transition

The world is in the midst of a significant demographic transition with important implications for the macroeconomic performance of the global economy. This paper summarises the key features of the current and projected future demographic changes that are likely to have macroeconomic effects.&

By Warwick McKibbin

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Multilateral approaches to the nuclear fuel cycle

In a Lowy Institute Issues Brief, former Australian Governor on the Board of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Lance Joseph, addresses nuclear proliferation dangers of today and how these might be addressed.

By Lance Joseph

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The global impact of demographic change

This paper examines the implications of the major demographic transition currently under way and over the next 80 years for Japan, the United States, the rest of the OECD, and developing regions.

By Warwick McKibbin

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Angels and dragons: Asia, the UN, reform and the next Secretary-General

This Issues Brief assesses the relationship between the United Nations and Asia – both the UN's activities in Asia and the behaviour of Asian states at the UN.

By Michael Fullilove

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Global demographic change and Japanese macroeconomic performance

By Warwick McKibbin

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Buying air warfare destroyers: a strategic decision

The Government has chosen a builder for three new Air Warfare Destroyers [AWDs] before it has properly considered whether we really need to buy them, and how best to buy them if we do.

By Hugh White

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Building a democratic Palestine: an Australian contribution to legal and institutional development in the Palestinian territories

Legal and institutional reform in the Palestinian territories is a critical and often overlooked component of the effort to reach a peaceful settlement between Israel and the Palestinians.

By Anthony Bubalo

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Convergence and per capita carbon emissions

In a new Working Paper in International Economics, Professor Warwick McKibbin and Alison Stegman write that assumptions about carbon emissions per person lie behind many future climate projections as well as being the basis of a number of policy proposals.

By Warwick McKibbin

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Financial liberalization, financial sector development and growth: evidence from Malaysia

The objective of this paper is to examine whether financial development leads to economic growth or vice versa in the small, open economy of Malaysia. We argue that the results obtained from cross-sectional studies are not able to address this issue satisfactorily and highlight the importance of

By Warwick McKibbin

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The sustainability of growth: history and prospects

This is Chapter 1 in the book, edited by Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song, entitled China: Is Rapid Growth Sustainable, Asia Pacific Press, Canberra, 2004

By Ross Garnaut

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The emergence of substantive Sino-Australian relations, 1983-88

A paper by Ross Garnaut, Professor of Economics, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, The Australian National University

By Ross Garnaut

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Asset markets and financial flows in general equilibrium models

This paper discusses the importance of asset markets and financial flows in general equilibrium models. Asset markets and financial flows play an important role in the adjustment process to economic shocks and policy changes.

By Warwick McKibbin

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Indonesia in a changing global environment

Indonesia faces a number of important challenges both in the short run and in the longer run. The world economy is currently growing robustly but a number of uncertainties cloud the economic outlook. A strong global economy is being challenged by higher oil prices.

By Warwick McKibbin

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Sensible climate policy

In Sensible climate policy Professor Warwick McKibbin criticises the Kyoto Protocol that had just entered into force in February 2005. He predicts that the policy would not succeed in reducing emissions and argued that it was a mistake to continue to follow the ‘targets and timetables’ approach

By Warwick McKibbin

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India energy needs

India's exploding demand for energy is confronting New Delhi with two important dilemmas. India's internal dilemma is that to satisfy its energy needs, it must balance reform and expansion of its energy sector with the need to avoid alienating key domestic constituencies.

By Nick Hordern

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Energy insecurity: China, India and Middle East oil

Anthony Bubalo and Mark Thirlwell examine China and India's growing thirst for imported oil, particularly from the Middle East, and consider some of the possible longer term strategic implications associated with this trend.

By Mark Thirlwell, Anthony Bubalo

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The 'Khmer Islam' community in Cambodia and its foreign patrons

Dr Milton Osborne, Australia's pre-eminent Cambodia expert, in a new Lowy Institute Issues Brief, looks at the revival of Cambodia's Islamic minority in the post-Pol Pot period.

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Beyond Arafat

Anthony Bubalo, research fellow, argues that Yasser Arafat's death could have longer term positive implications for both Palestinian political reform and efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but in the short term the impact will be more limited. Arafat's immediate successors will not

By Anthony Bubalo

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Bush is from Mars, Kerry is from Mars too

Although there are significant differences in style and substance between George Bush and John Kerry, the similarities in foreign policy terms are more striking than is sometimes understood. From Australia's perspective, the fundamentals of our relationship with the US are excellent and the alliance

By Michael Fullilove

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Transpacific trade imbalances: causes and cures

This Issues Brief by Professor Warwick McKibbin and others explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances.

By Warwick McKibbin

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Parallel worlds

Depending on the way we look at the world at present it is possible to see the international system as unipolar or multipolar, as intensely inter-connected or deeply divided. Each of these angles of view reveals important truths about the global environment.Allan Gyngell looks at the lessons

By Allan Gyngell

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The Beijing 2008 Olympic Games: China in the limelight

John Bowan, a former senior Australian foreign policy official, and consultant to Beijing's successful Olympic bid, examines how Beijing and China won the 2008 Games and what this will mean for China and its position in the world.The 2008 Olympics will open China to unprecedented international

By John Bowan

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Israel withdrawal from Gaza: a role for Australia?

This paper explores the possibility that further Australian military forces will be sought for the Middle East, in this case for a peacekeeping force in the Gaza Strip.

By Anthony Bubalo

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Modelling global demographic change: results for Japan

In earlier papers, we introduced demographic features into the MSG3 model of the world economy, following the approach of Bryant and McKibbin.

By Warwick McKibbin

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Long run projections for climate change scenarios

The prediction of future temperature increases depends critically on the projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. Yet there is a vigorous debate about how these projections should be undertaken and how reasonable is the approach of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) published by

By Warwick McKibbin

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Climate change policy for India

While the global environment waits for the world to reach some form of agreement on climate policy, developing countries such as India are entering a phase of higher economic growth. The decisions on investment in energy systems that will be made in India in coming years will have an important

By Warwick McKibbin

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Election Watch. Japan party system: shifting the political axis, releasing economic reform

This Issues Brief examines how changes to the Japanese political system, reflected in the November 9 election results, offer new hope for structural economic reforms that would benefit Australia

By Malcolm Cook

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The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: a preliminary assessment

On 8 February Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile concluded an agreed text for an Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement. This Issues Brief provides a preliminary assessment of the agreement, based on the limited information now available

By Mark Thirlwell

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Globalization and disease: the case of SARS

The outbreak of SARS in late 2002 has alerted the world to the potential economic costs of epidemics. The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of the global economic impacts of the SARS disease as well as provide a more comprehensive approach to estimating the global consequences of

By Warwick McKibbin

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The international economy in 2003…

This Issues Brief suggests that a key theme over the past year has been the management of external imbalances in a world economy that is not only increasingly integrated but which is simultaneously undergoing a sustained geographic shift in the distribution of economic weight towards Asia

By Mark Thirlwell

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Revaluing the renminbi...

There are strong parallels between today’s US-China tensions over trade and US-Japan economic relations in the 1980s

By Mark Thirlwell

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Are Australian policymakers operating in a new global economy?

Developments including the rise of vertically specialised trade and the growing internationalisation of production, broader and deeper goods and financial market integration, the extension of international trade to the previously “non-tradeable” services sector, and the spread of international

By Mark Thirlwell

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Is the international trading system fragmenting? The dilemma for Australian trade policy

The post-World War II international trade policy framework is being challenged by a proliferation of bilateral and regional trading arrangements. Australia faces a choice over whether to join this preferential trade bandwagon and risk collateral damage to the multilateral trading system, or to go no

By Mark Thirlwell

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The consequences of China WTO accession on its neighbours

Southeast Asian industrial exports are now facing intense competition from Chinese industrial exports. How much more would competition increase with China's recent accession to the World Trade Organization? Would Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand (the ASEAN-4) de-industrialise and return

By Warwick McKibbin

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Estimates of the costs of Kyoto-Marrakesh versus the McKibbin-Wilcoxen Blueprint

In this paper we update our earlier estimates of the cost of the Kyoto Protocol using the G-Cubed model, taking into account the new sink allowances from recent negotiations as well as allowing for multiple gases and new land clearing estimates.

By Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen

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Changes in equity risk perceptions: global consequences and policy responses

The current weakness in the global economy has generated a debate on the likely outlook for the world economy and the appropriate response for monetary policies.

By Warwick McKibbin

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