Analyses | 28 August 2003

The consequences of China's WTO accession on its neighbours

Southeast Asian industrial exports are now facing intense competition from Chinese industrial exports. How much more would competition increase with China's recent accession to the World Trade Organization? Would Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand (the ASEAN-4) de-industrialise and return to their roles in the 1950s and 1960s as primary commodity exporters? Or would there be sufficient lucrative niches within the manufacturing production chains that the ASEAN-4 could specialise in? 

Warwick McKibbin

  • Warwick McKibbin

Southeast Asian industrial exports are now facing intense competition from Chinese industrial exports. How much more would competition increase with China's recent accession to the World Trade Organization? Would Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand (the ASEAN-4) de-industrialise and return to their roles in the 1950s and 1960s as primary commodity exporters? Or would there be sufficient lucrative niches within the manufacturing production chains that the ASEAN-4 could specialise in? 

Warwick McKibbin

  • Warwick McKibbin
On this page

Executive Summary

This paper explores these issues using a global simulation model called the G-Cubed (Asia pacific) model.