Andrew Shearer	Rory Medcalf	Justin Jones	James Brown	Raoul Heinrichs

The Lowy Institute's Macarthur Foundation Asia Security Project aims to explore the limits of security cooperation in Asia and promote measures to prevent the region's growing strategic rivalries from deepening and escalating into war.

Supported by a generous grant from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Lowy Institute will work alongside 26 other leading regional institutions, helping to shape a practical agenda for security cooperation.

New report launched Shared goals, converging interests: a plan for US-Australia-India cooperation in the Indo-Pacific In this major new report launched on 4 November, scholars from the Lowy Institute, the Heritage Foundation and the Observer Research Foundation identify common challenges and opportunities facing Australia, India and the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. The report notes that Australia-India security relations are underdeveloped and calls for the establishment of a new United States-India-Australia trilateral security dialogue. Influential Australian foreign policy commentator Greg Sheridan welcomed the report in this front-page newspaper article. The report will also be launched in New Delhi on Monday 7 November. Download item (490KB)

Obama in Australia Buildup Down Under In this article for Foreign Policy.com, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf outlines the Asia-Pacific strategic vision behind Obama’s historic 2011 speech in Canberra – but also suggests that more could have been done to prepare most Australians for such a... More   Asia's rising powers China and India: Beyond competitive coexistence Rory Medcalf, the Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, recently gave public lectures in Washington DC and in Melbourne on China-India relations and the risks of strategic competition between Asia’s rising giants. His Washington... More

US-China-Australia relations Obama in Australia: balancing not containment In this article for the website China-US Focus, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf takes a sceptical look at claims that President Obama’s visit to Australia was part of a strategy to 'contain' China’s rise. Click here to access the full article. More

Nuclear arms control The dangers of denial: nuclear weapons in China-India relations In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Research Associate Fiona Cunningham and International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf warn of growing security risks in the relationship between Asia’s nuclear-armed rising powers China and India. An asymmetry of capabilities and threat perceptions is helping to drive these dangers. The authors call for a strategy stability dialogue to begin between China and India, embedded in a relationship of greater mutual respect, to ensure that possible future confrontations do not involve nuclear threats or misjudgments. This publication is supported by the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the Nuclear Security Project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, www.nuclearsecurityproject.org. Download item (275KB)

Obama visits Australia Our chance to align with the US pivot point In this opinion piece in The Australian, the Lowy Institute's Rory Medcalf argues that Australia has an opportunity to work closely with the United States as it makes a three-fold strategic pivot: from the Middle East to Asia, from an Asia-Pacific to an Indo-Pacific concept, and towards more dispersed military access and basing which makes use of Australia's unique Indo-Pacific geography. This, he argues, is about transnational threats and balancing China, not some notion of containment. The Australian, 15 November 2011, p. 9 Download item (16KB)

Strategic Snapshot Series Lonely power, staying power In the latest Strategic Snapshot, Dr John Lee, Adjunct Associate Professor and Michael Hintze Fellow in Energy Security at the University of Sydney, challenges a number of assumptions about the transformation of Asia’s security environment. Contrary to expectations, he argues, the United States will remain the pre-eminent strategic actor in the region for a number of reasons that will be difficult to alter, while China’s capacity for translating economic size into strategic leverage is problematic now and likely to face sharp limits into the future. Download item (1.1MB)

Rory Medcalf in Strategic Asia 2011-12 Grand stakes: Australia’s future between China and India On the eve of President Obama's November 2011 visit to Australia, it is clear that Canberra is seeking an Indo-Pacific strategy for an era of Chinese, Indian and sustained American power. The contours of such a strategy were assessed by the Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, Rory Medcalf, in his contribution to the 2011-12 edition of the authoritative Strategic Asia series of books, published by the US National Bureau of Asian Research in September 2011. His chapter provides the first parallel analysis of Australia’s relations with China and India in the new Asian strategic environment, and proposes ways to transform Australia-India relations (such as uranium sales) as well as to adjust the US alliance for the Asian century. Mr Medcalf spoke recently at the launch of the book in Washington DC, and the video of the launch event can be accessed here. More

Launch of Lowy Institute Analysis Inaugural India-China Workshop On 17 and 18 October 2011, the Lowy Institute hosted the inaugural India-China Workshop, an informal dialogue bringing together Australian, Indian, Chinese and Singaporean experts. At the public concluding event, a new Lowy Institute Analysis, 'The Dangers of Denial', on the nuclear dimension of India-China relations, was launched by its authors and discussed by two Workshop participants. The speakers at the launch can be heard here: The Dangers of Denial: the nuclear dimension of India-China relations - MP3 (20MB) Click on the image above to watch a video of the launch. More

Raoul Heinrichs opinion piece Risks of US alliance rising as value falls In an opinion piece in The Age, Raoul Heinrichs, editor of the Lowy Institute's Strategic Snapshot Series, argues that Canberra is making dangerous assumptions about our Washington ties. The Age, 15 September 2011, p. 15 Download item (15KB)

Ashley Townshend opinion piece China's carrier is no cause for regional alarm In an opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Research Associate Ashley Townshend and Shashank Joshi, an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, London, write that the Varyag, China's first aircraft carrier, is on a course to national pride. The Australian, 6 September 2011, p. 8 Download item (34KB)

Food for Thought Series Crisis and confidence: major powers and maritime security Asia's security tensions at sea are back on top of the global strategic agenda with the July 2011 visit to China by US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen. The Lowy Institute recently launched a major new publication on this subject. During the launch event in Canberra on 28 June, a presentation by principal author Rory Medcalf was followed by a panel discussion involving the authors and Director of Studies Andrew Shearer. The full text of Crisis and Confidence is available here. The presentations can be heard here: Crisis and confidence: major powers and maritime security - MP3 (21MB) More

Strategic Snapshot Series Resident power: the case for an enhanced US military presence in Australia In the latest Lowy Strategic Snapshot, Dr Toshi Yoshihara, Associate Professor at the US Naval War College and co-author of the influential book 'Red Star Over the Pacific', makes a strong case for an expanded US military presence in Australia. Dr Yoshihara argues that the rise of China and India, together with the proliferation of precision-guided strike capabilities in Asia, requires rethinking America's existing regional military basing arrangements. Australia's pivotal location between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, existing military infrastructure in the north and west, and political stability are all bringing Australia's geostrategic importance into sharper focus for US defence planners. Download item (1.4MB)

Maritime security How to avoid crisis and find trust in the South China Sea In this article for China-US Focus, the Lowy Institute's Rory Medcalf assesses the outcomes from the July 2011 visit to China by US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen. He concludes that the confidence-building measures from that visit fall short of what is needed to prevent conflict at sea. The article can be accessed here: http://www.chinausfocus.com/slider/how-to-avoid-crisis-and-find-trust-in-the-south-china-sea/ More

Asian maritime security Crisis and Confidence ‘leads naval affairs narrative’ The Lowy Institute-MacArthur Foundation report on Asian maritime security, Crisis and Confidence, has won plaudits from leading naval blog Information Dissemination. Crisis and Confidence is referred to as ‘perhaps the most frequently publicly discussed think tank content produced in 2011 related to maritime affairs in the Pacific’, with the Lowy Institute and its Asian security team ‘leading the public naval affairs narrative by being the leading think tank content and ideas provider’. The full item can be read here: http://www.informationdissemination.net/2011/07/think-tanks-media-and-future-of-ideas.html The full text of Crisis and Confidence can be downloaded here: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=1618 More

More praise for 'Crisis and confidence' Recognition for Lowy-MacArthur maritime security report In an article in the Indian Express newspaper, leading Indian strategic commentator Raja Mohan reviews 'Crisis and Confidence', a major report on Asian maritime security prepared under the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the MacArthur Foundation’s Asia Security Initiative. He describes the report as possibly 'the first comprehensive discussion of ways to lower naval tensions in Asia'. Raja Mohan’s article can be found here: http://www.indianexpress.com/news/mosquito-fleet/813231/0 The full text of 'Crisis and Confidence', by Rory Medcalf and Raoul Heinrichs with Justin Jones, can be accessed here: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=1618 More

India and China Unselfish giants? Understanding China and India as security providers In this article in a 2011 special issue of the Australian Journal of International Affairs, Lowy Institute program director Rory Medcalf assesses the drivers and strategic impacts of the increasing roles of the Chinese and Indian militaries as providers of global security public goods. Australian Journal of International Affairs, Special Issue: Collaboration, Governance, and Security in the Asia-Pacific: Challenges for Australia and China, July 2011 More

In The Diplomat Asia's maritime confidence crisis In this article for The Diplomat, Raoul Heinrichs and Rory Medcalf explore the causes, risks and consequences of maritime encounters in Indo-Pacific Asia. Based on their recent report, Crisis and Confidence, the piece concludes with a number of recommendations aimed at enhancing stability at sea amid increasing mistrust among the region's major powers. The Diplomat, 27 June 2011 Download item (44KB)

Australia's defence strategy Dangerous luxuries In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Brookings Institution Federal Executive Fellow John Angevine writes that Australia’s current defence strategy does not correspond with the realities of Australia’s security situation. The plan for the modernisation of the Australian Defence Force (ADF) is focused on expensive maritime and air capabilities for conflicts that the ADF couldn’t fight alone. Consequently, the ADF is exposed with an atrophying ground force and expeditionary capability for the low-level regional operations in which it will be most likely to engage. The ANZUS alliance is emerging as the cornerstone alliance for stability in the Asia-Pacific region but the US must understand the implications Australian defence planning will have on the future alliance. The Brookings Institution has published a version of this paper at: http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2011/0601_military_capabilities_angevine.aspx Download item (789KB)

Photo essay in The Diplomat What Robert Gates leaves behind US Defense Secretary Robert Gates steps down on June 30 after almost five years in the job, and having served under both a Republican and Democrat president. The Diplomat asked some of the leading Asia analysts to assess how some of the key US military relationships developed under Gates, and the main challenges that his successor, Leon Panetta, faces as he takes over. Lowy Institute Military Associate James Brown's section on Australia in the photo essay is at: http://the-diplomat.com/photo-essay/2011/06/30/what-robert-gates-leaves-behind/8/ More

Indo-Pacific security Right arguments, wrong ocean? In this book review roundtable for the journal Asia Policy, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf appraises the core arguments of Red Star over the Pacific, by Toshi Yoshihara and Jonathan R. Holmes. Mr Medcalf focuses on the book’s treatment of China’s Indian Ocean ambitions. More

Lowy-MacArthur Security Project Crisis and confidence: major powers and maritime security in Indo-Pacific Asia Maritime tensions remain at the top of the Asian security agenda, with the 22-23 July 2011 meetings in Bali of the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Regional Forum. These issues are at the core of a major recent report from the Lowy Institute’s MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project, which warns of the risks of war in the South China Sea and other regional waters. Authors Rory Medcalf and Raoul Heinrichs, with maritime adviser Justin Jones, examine the drivers of Asia’s maritime ‘crisis of confidence’, including clashes of sovereignty, national pride and military strategy. They conclude with a modest and realistic set of ‘confidence-building’ recommendations to avert conflict at sea, both in East Asia and across the wider Indo-Pacific region. Download item (2.8MB)

Maritime security All at sea over Beijing brinkmanship In this commentary article in The Australian, the director of the Lowy Institute’s international security program, Rory Medcalf, warns that China’s assertive actions at sea could end in conflict unless there are renewed efforts at dialogue and practical confidence-building measures. This is based on a forthcoming publication under the Lowy-MacArthur Asia Security Project. The Australian, 27 June 2011, p. 9 Download item (16KB)

Unravelling rivalry: China and India Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Rory Medcalf presentation In recent years, the idea of a looming struggle between China and India has seized the imaginations of prominent strategists and journalists. Here are two rising Asian great powers with rapid economic growth, expanding global interests and modernising militaries. In this Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Rory Medcalf explored some plausible paths for a bilateral relationship with vast potential to shape or shake the world's and Australia's future. His presentation can be heard here: Unravelling rivalry: China and India - MP3 (21MB) More

Rory Medcalf column Tomes, tweets and think tanks In his latest Advance Column in the US Studies Centre journal American Review, Lowy Institute International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf reviews five important new books on Asian security, ranging across Sino-Japanese relations, China's naval ambitions and the challenges facing Indian military modernisation. Mr Medcalf also uses the column to question whether think tanks are making effective use of social media such as twitter. The full column can be found here: http://www.americanreviewmag.com/Columns More

Dangerous luxuries: Australia's flawed defence strategy Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Colonel John Angevine presentation At the Wednesday Lunch on 1 June, Colonel John Angevine spoke via video link at the Lowy Institute to discuss his Lowy Institute paper that reviews Australia’s defence strategy and the structure of the Australian Defence Force. Colonel Angevine argued that the strategy and force structure outlined in Australia’s Defence White Paper is flawed, leaves the Australian Defence Force vulnerable to mission failure, and will make Australians more dependent on the United States. The interview can be heard here: Dangerous luxuries: Australia's flawed defence strategy - MP3 (19MB) More

Strategic Snapshot Series India, China and the United States: Asia's emerging strategic triangle In this contribution to the Lowy Institute's Strategic Snapshot series, leading Indian analyst C. Raja Mohan argues that the triangular dynamic among the United States, India and China will be critical to Asia's strategic future. He examines the complex pattern of power balancing and diplomatic engagement that is defining these relations, marked by a sequence of high-level visits at the end of 2010 and beginning of 2011. Download item (1.4MB)

Rory Medcalf opinion piece Gillard's diplomatic skills tested during north Asia visit In this opinion piece in The Sydney Morning Herald, the director of the Lowy Institute’s international security program, Rory Medcalf, analyses the diplomatic minefields that Prime Minister Julia Gillard will need to navigate on her visit to Japan, South Korea and China. Sydney Morning Herald, 23 April 2011, p. 13 Download item (14KB)

Raoul Heinrichs opinion piece US guarantees placed them in this predicament In this opinion piece for the Canberra Times, Raoul Heinrichs, Editor of the Lowy Institute's Strategic Snapshot series, argues that US primacy, an order built on the preponderant power of the US and designed to entrench US dominance, has instead facilitated the rise of a powerful and dissatisfied China. Canberra Times, 18 April 2011, p. 9 Download item (13KB)

Andrew Shearer opinion piece Leading in the Indian Ocean In an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal, Lowy Institute Director of Studies Andrew Shearer and Thomas Mahnken argue that Australia and the U.S. need to organise allies to maintain freedom of navigation in the Indian Ocean as regional rivalries heat up. The op-ed is available here. Wall Street Journal, 10 March 2011 More

Indo-Pacific security PM faces challenge of deeper alliance In this op-ed in The Australian, senior Lowy Institute strategic analysts Rory Medcalf and Andrew Shearer argue for an enhanced Australia-US alliance to meet the challenges of the new age of the Indo-Pacific. They note that Julia Gillard’s March 2011 visit to the United States offers an opportunity to put her mark on external policy by exploring questions of an expanded US naval presence, including in Western Australia. The Australian, 7 March 2011, p. 9 Download item (13KB)

Launch of Strategic Snapshot 7 Between the clawing eagle and the ascendant dragon: the demise of the Philippines' policy of hedging In the Lowy Institute's latest Strategic Snapshot, Professor Renato Cruz De Castro, of De La Salle University, Manila, explores the triangular strategic dynamic between the United States, China and the Philippines. While Manila has, like other countries in Asia, successfully navigated this arrangement with a two-way hedging strategy, according to Professor De Castro, China's growing assertiveness, Washington's efforts to balance Beijing's increasing political clout, and Manila's slow drift to a closer security relationship with Washington are all gradually undermining the circumstances in which Manila has been able to maintain this delicate balance. Download item (1.4MB)

Strategic Snapshot Series Sino-Indian maritime relations: managing mistrust in the Indian Ocean In the Lowy Institute's latest Strategic Snapshot, International Security Program Associate Ashley Townshend explores the strategic dynamics between China and India in the Indian Ocean. While the potential for rivalry exists, Mr Townshend argues that the combination of a skewed distribution of capabilities and collective interest in stability, together with a range of enhanced confidence-building mechanisms, should go a long way to dampening the region's underlying competitive impulses. Download item (1.5MB)

New paper by Professor Thomas Mahnken Secrecy and stratagem: understanding Chinese strategic culture To cope with a rising China, other powers will need a close understanding of Chinese strategic culture. This Lowy-MacArthur paper, by Professor Thomas Mahnken of the US Naval War College, presents an initial attempt to redress this gap. It seeks to identify the enduring features of Chinese strategic culture, assess their role in Chinese policy and consider their implications for the future posture and responses of the People's Liberation Army. Drawing on ancient texts, modern official documents and accounts of Beijing's decision-making during crises, Secrecy and Strategem raises important questions about the potentially risky relationship between Chinese strategic culture, misperception and miscalculation in Asia's uncertain security future. Download item (4.2MB)

Lowy Institute in Seoul Extended deterrence: South Korean workshop On 23 November, a Lowy Institute team led by International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf co-hosted a major consultative workshop in Seoul with South Korean, Japanese, Australian and American experts, looking at the future of extended deterrence in North Asia. This was the Institute's first major event in South Korea, and was held in partnership with the South Korean Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security as well as the Japan Institute of International Affairs, with support from the Nuclear Security Project. These closed-door discussions examined the fundamental security challenges in the region and considered the mix of nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities that the United States and its allies require to deter large-scale conflict. Views on the feasability of nuclear disarmament were tested. Fresh tensions on the Korean Peninsula - over uranium enrichment and the 23 November North Korean artillery attack - underscored the relevance of this dialogue. More

Australian defence policy The Defence debate down under, in context In this piece for the CSIS Asia policy blog Cogitasia, the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that a new independent report calling for Australian strategic clout against China needs to be seen in context, and not as a representation of official Australian thinking. Australia is strengthening its defences in light of the rise of China, but not as single-mindedly or provocatively as the new report suggests. It is available on Cogitasia. More

Strategic Snapshot series Japan-China maritime relations: dealing with new dimensions In the Lowy Institute's latest Strategic Snapshot, Dr Hiroyasu Akutsu explores the strategic dynamics animating the China-Japan maritime relationship, which is becoming dangerously militarised. Against a backdrop of shifting power balances, enhanced military capabilities and lingering territorial disputes, Dr Akutsu recommends for Japan a two-track strategy: confidence building on the one hand, hedging on the other. Download item (1.8MB)

Lowy Institutes achieves highest ever ranking in the 2010 Global go to think tank rankings The University of Pennsylvania's annual rankings of the world's top think thanks puts the Lowy Institute at 27th in the top 50 think tanks worldwide (a ranking which excludes US institutions). The only other Asia-based think tank in the top 30 is the highly respected Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. In a major achievement, the Lowy Institute was ranked in the top 10 in the world for its use of the internet to engage the public. It was ranked eighth in the top 25 think tanks in Asia. More

Strategic Snapshot Series Little power, big choices: Australia's strategic future In the Lowy Institute's fourth Strategic Snapshot, Research Associate and Asia Security Project Coordinator Raoul Heinrichs explores the strategic challenges confronting Australia as shifting power balances in Asia produce new calculations among the region's major powers. Building on Power and Choice, the Lowy Institute's major report on Asian Security Futures, Mr Heinrichs argues that while US primacy or a 'concert of Asia' are the most preferable futures for Australia, a competitive balance of power is the most likely. Between new risks for Canberra of being dragged into competition and old fears of being left to fend for itself, Mr Heinrichs recommends a major build-up of Australia's independent strategic weight, and reduced reliance on the United States, as a hedge against the most serious dangers arising from Asia's transition. Download item (1.4MB)

Korea crisis Ruinous US-China relations the big danger from North Korea In this opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that the greatest damage from the November 2010 North Korean bombardment could be to US-China relations and thus to peace among the great powers in Asia. The Age, 25 November 2010, p. 21 Download item (96KB)

Nuclear arms control Nuclear weapons and American strategy in the age of Obama In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Visiting Fellow Hugh White critically examines the 2010 US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). Professor White argues that – contrary to what has been widely assumed – the NPR does not significantly reduce the role of nuclear weapons in America’s strategic posture. In particular, it does not properly address the central question of how to prevent nuclear strategic issues destabilising the US-China relationship. This publication was produced under the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the Nuclear Security Project (www.nuclearsecurityproject.org). Download item (549KB)

Lowy Institute in China Beijing workshop: extended deterrence On 18 October 2010, the Lowy Institute held its first event in China. A team of Australian researchers led by the Institute’s international security program director, Rory Medcalf, joined colleagues from China, Japan and South Korea in a workshop on the future of extended deterrence and strategic stability in the Asia-Pacific, in the context of changing regional power balances and efforts towards nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. It was co-hosted with the Institute for International Studies at Tsinghua University and the Center for the Promotion of Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (Japan Institute of International Affairs). This Beijing event was supported by the Nuclear Security Project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and will inform research for a multi-authored book to be released next year. More

Andrew Shearer addresses AEI Conference The next strategic frontier: emerging rivalries in the Indian Ocean? On 28 October, two panels convened at AEI to discuss the emergence of the Indian Ocean as a key strategic space. The first panel focused on the potential for economic and political rivalries among regional players. Speakers debated whether the Indian Ocean is part of a larger pan-Asian system, what AEI's Michael Auslin called the "Asian Commons," and whether destabilizing competition in the region is inevitable. Sunil Dasgupta of the University of Maryland-Baltimore County dismissed the notion of a singular strategic entity, arguing that conflicts in the region are isolated, separable, and conditional. The U.S. Naval War College's Toshi Yoshihara warned of the potential for mutual misconceptions among China, India, and the United States to cause universally unwanted tensions. Shifting focus, Andrew Shearer of Australia's Lowy Institute highlighted the counterterrorism challenges presented by failed and weak states along the Horn of Africa and South Asia. More

American Review column Advance Column: Think tanks look to Asia In his column on global think tanks in the November 2010 issue of the journal American Review, Lowy Institute Program Director Rory Medcalf looks at the challenges for foreign policy research in China and India as well as the evolving policy debate on Afghanistan. This survey covers recent work by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Tsinghua University, the International Institute for Strategic Studies and India's National Maritime Foundation. The column is available here. More

Strategic Snapshot series Decisions and destinies: Asian security in 2010 In the Lowy Institute’s third Asia security 'Strategic Snapshot', Program Director for International Security Rory Medcalf assesses how recent security choices in Asia – especially at sea – could have long-term consequences for peace or conflict. Looking at recent events in light of Power and Choice, the Lowy Institute’s flagship report on alternative Asian security futures, Mr Medcalf warns that a more assertive Chinese maritime posture is not being matched with the kind of dialogue and practical confidence-building measures needed to minimise risks of confrontation. At the same time, powerful states remain unlikely to invest regional institutions – even an expanded East Asia Summit and a new defence ministers’ meeting – with real scope to manage the strategic challenges of the South China Sea or the Korean Peninsula. Across the Indo-Pacific, the use and threat of force in major-power relations has not gone away. Download item (1.4MB)

Defence spending Andrew Shearer interview: The Monocle Lowy Institute Director of Studies Andrew Shearer was interviewed for The Monocle on Australia's ambitious defence spending plans. The interview can be heard at: http://www.monocle.com/the-monocle-weekly/edition76.aspx The Monocle, Edition 76, 24 October 2010 More

American Review column Advance column In his column in the new journal American Review, Lowy Institute Program Director for International Security Rory Medcalf surveys new research on strategic issues in US and other global think tanks. In the May-October 2010 issue, he looks at recent work by the Center for a New American Security, the Project 2049 Institute, Brookings’ Managing Global Insecurity Project, the MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Initiative, and the Stockholm Peace Research Institute. The article can be read here. American Review, May-October 2010 More

Between Beijing and Washington Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Hugh White presentation At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 15 September, Professor Hugh White spoke about Australia's choices as China grows. Hugh White is a Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy and Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University. His presentation can be heard here: Between Beijing and Washington - MP3 (21MB) More

Panel discussion - Raoul Heinrichs Resumption of Six Party Talks In this panel discussion on China Radio International's Beyond Beijing program, Research Associate and Asia Security Project Coordinator Raoul Heinrichs explores the future prospects for the Six Party Talks, and for security on the Korean Peninsula. Raoul's part in the discussion can be heard here: Resumption of Six Party Talks - MP3 (49MB) More

Asian security Asia's maritime security is all at sea In an opinion piece in The Australian, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf warns that China and its neighbours lack even the basic maritime rules that kept the Cold War cool. This article is based on the recent Strategic Snapshot Decisions and Destinies: Asian Security in 2010, published under the Lowy Institute’s MacArthur Foundation Asian Security Project. The Australian, 15 September 2010, p. 10 Download item (59KB)

China-Japan tensions Rory Medcalf interview In this interview on ABC Radio’s PM current affairs program, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf looks at maritime tensions between China and Japan, following a collision in contested waters in early September 2010. He discusses the need to reduce risks of escalation in the wider context of changing power balances explored in the Lowy Institute’s MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project. The interview is available at: http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2010/s3007510.htm More

China's competing international identities: the conflicted rising power Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Professor David Shambaugh presentation As China emerges fully on the global stage, its impact is being felt in various dimensions -diplomatic, commercial, cultural, energy and environment, military-strategic, global governance, and other domains. Yet the international community remains very uncertain of China’s intentions, goals, strategies, and tactics. One way to begin to understand how China may behave on the global stage is to delve into domestic debates about China’s international identity and roles in the world. Professor Shambaugh’s lecture at the Wednesday Lunch on 1 September illuminated China’s domestic discourse about its international position. His presentation can be heard here: China's competing international identities: the conflicted rising power - MP3 (19MB) More

India-China tensions India must master the great game India needs to stay cool in the face of diplomatic and security provocations by China, argues International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf in this opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal. Through development, deterrence and diplomacy New Delhi can be prepared for looming rivalry. The Wall Street Journal Asia, 3 September 2010, p. 9 Download item (61KB)

Strategic Snapshot Series America's grand strategy in Asia: what would Mahan do? In the Lowy Institute’s latest Asia security ‘Strategic Snapshot’, distinguished American Asia scholar and former senior White House official Dr Michael J. Green examines Asia’s changing power dynamics and asks what grand strategy 19th century geo-strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan, the father of US sea-power, would advocate for the United States if he were alive today. Responding to Power and Choice, the Lowy Institute’s flagship report on alternative Asian security futures, Dr Green makes a powerful case for a modern US Asia strategy drawing on Mahan’s insights and based on a strong forward maritime presence, strengthened cooperation with allies, a reaffirmed American commitment to free trade, and promotion of the values the United States shares with its key Asian partners. Download item (1.1MB)

U.S. engagement with a rising Asia Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Dr Robert Sutter presentation Based on research including consultations with 180 officials in ten Asia-Pacific countries over the past six years, this careful and balanced assessment of the strengths and limitations of Asia’s rise, notably the rise of China, along with the strengths and weaknesses of the United States and its ongoing leadership position in the region, demonstrates that neither China nor any other power or coalition of powers has either the ability nor the will to challenge US leadership in the Asia-Pacific. Dr Sutter's presentation can be heard here: U.S. engagement with a rising Asia - MP3 (20MB) More

Strategic Snapshots series Cheonan choices The Lowy Institute’s MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project is releasing a new publication series, ‘Strategic Snapshots’. The first Snapshot, Cheonan Choices, by Andrew Shearer and Malcolm Cook, highlights the strategic implications of North Korea’s sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan, including strengthened security ties between South Korea, Japan and the United States, and concerns about China’s limited response to its ally’s reckless and provocative actions. It advocates a range of policy responses, including: enhanced Australia-South Korea intelligence sharing and annual strategic discussions between Australian and South Korean foreign and defence ministers; bringing Japan and Australia into future anti-submarine exercises involving South Korea and the United States and establishing four-party security discussions; and an Australia-South Korea led exercise in support of the international Proliferation Security Initiative. Download item (1.5MB)

New Lowy Institute Analysis Sweet and sour: Australian public attitudes towards China Foreign policy has hardly featured in the 2010 election campaign. That's a shame. Australia faces an increasingly uncertain international environment. One of the most pressing challenges facing the next government will be putting in place a durable policy framework to guide Australia's increasingly complex relationship with a rising China. In this paper Andrew Shearer analyses changing public attitudes to China and the implications for policy. Part 2 of the video is available by clicking here. Download item (918KB)

Lowy Institute-MacArthur Foundation collaboration Power and choice: Asian security futures The situation in North Korea emphasises the fragility of Asia’s security order and the strains the region’s changing power distribution are placing on it. A major 2010 Lowy Institute Asia Security Project report, 'Power and Choice: Asian Security Futures', analyses the likely security futures for Asia and Australia and recommends steps countries should take to ensure growing regional competition does not lead to conflict. This report was made possible by the generous support for the Project by the MacArthur Foundation. A copy of the report, launched by Dennis Richardson, AO, the Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade on 1 June 2010, can be downloaded here. Download item (6.5MB)

Publication launch Asian security futures report On Tuesday 1 June Mr Dennis Richardson AO, Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, launched a major new Lowy Institute report - Power and Choice: Asian security futures - at the National Portrait Gallery in Canberra. Jointly written by the Lowy Institute's MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project team, the report explores a number of future scenarios that could arise from Asia's emerging political and strategic dynamics. The publication can be downloaded at: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=1306 Pictured: Mr Dennis Richardson AO More

The Shangri-La Dialogue Asia Security Summit The 9th IISS Asia Security Summit, The Shangri-La Dialogue, was held in Singapore 4-6 June 2010. Director of Studies Andrew Shearer participated in the Q&A session after the Keynote Address by Lee Myung-Bak, President, Republic of Korea. The transcript is available at: http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-2010/plenary-session-speeches/keynote-address/qa/ The full proccedings of the Dialogue can be read at: http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-2010/# More

Shearer discusses security developments in Northeast Asia Andrew Shearer in Shanghai Oriental Morning Post Andrew Shearer was quoted in today’s Shanghai Oriental Morning Post commenting on recent security developments in Northeast Asia, including the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan, the ensuing combined US-South Korea naval exercises under way off the Korean Peninsula and regional concerns about China’s rapid military modernisation program. (Attached article in Mandarin) Download item (547KB)

Andrew Shearer writes of the demise of the Asia Pacific Community idea The APC is a dead parrot In an opinion piece published on Caixin Online, Andrew Shearer argues that the concept of an Asia Pacific Community as proposed by Kevin Rudd is now defunct, but that Australia has a strong record of institution-building in Asia which should be continued. Caixin Online, 20 July 2010 Download item (23KB)

India-China maritime security India ahoy In this opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal (Asia), International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that India needs to sustain its smart naval diplomacy to manage tensions as China’s role increases in the Indian Ocean. Wall Street Journal, 29 April 2010 Download item (60KB)

Andrew Shearer's comments on the fate of the Asia Pacific Community proposal spark debate ABC Radio Australia item about Asia Pacific Community Linda Mottram quotes Andrew Shearer without attribution on the Prime Minister's progress on the Asia Pacific Community proposal. More

Asia-Pacific idea 'still active' The Prime Minister rejects suggestions he's given up on his Asia-Pacific community proposal in this article by Dennis Shanahan, quoting Andrew Shearer. More

Rudd's Asian vision quietly buried Rowan Callick writes in the Australian about the apparent demise of the Prime Minister's Asia-Pacific Community plan, and quotes Andrew Shearer about the policy implications and diplomatic consequences. More

PM surrenders ground on his concept for the region Rowan Callick reports that the Prime Minister has backed down on his plan to create a new Asia-Pacific community, and quotes Andrew Shearer on this abandonment of a key foreign policy goal. More

Lowy Institute-IISS conference Asia's strategic landscape On Monday 7 June the Lowy Institute's MacArthur Foundation Asia Security project team, together with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, hosted a conference on the emerging fissures in Asia's strategic landscape. The event, held on the margins of the Shangri-La Dialogue, was based on a major Lowy Institute report - 'Power and Choice: Asian Security Futures' - and attracted many of the region's most renowned foreign and strategic policy thinkers. More

Nuclear arms control Nuclear weapons in Asia: why we should worry In the Lowy Institute's first Food for Thought lecture in Melbourne, on 23 March, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf explored how the dangers of nuclear-armed confrontation between states might be minimised in the Asian century. He focused on relations among the United States, China, India and Pakistan, considered Japan’s difficult position, and touched upon whether a middle power like Australia could make a difference. The presentation can be heard here: Nuclear weapons in Asia: why we should worry - MP3 (20MB) A video of the presentation can be watched by clicking on the photo above. More

Conference Report: Asia’s Nuclear Future In February 2010 the Lowy Institute co-hosted a major international workshop on Asia’s Nuclear Future with the US-based Non-Proliferation Policy Education Centre. Leading experts and security practitioners from the United States, China, Japan, India, Pakistan and Australia had a candid exchange of views about the challenges in restraining nuclear weapons and preventing nuclear-armed conflict in the Asian century. This conference report outlines some of the key issues discussed, and touches upon some of the practical policy recommendations presented. Download item (214KB)

Panel discussion Asia's security environment On 24 September, the Lowy Institute's MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project hosted a panel discussion on possible Asian security futures. Andrew Shearer, Rory Medcalf and Raoul Heinrichs discussed the long-term implications of the tectonic shifts under way in Asia's power distribution for regional security arrangements. Participants, including Australia's most senior strategic experts, considered questions such as: • How durable are the foundations of US primacy? • Would a new security order necessarily be competitive and dangerous, or could it be peaceful and cooperative? • Might Asia again return to primacy, but with China replacing the US as the dominant regional power? The event took place in the broader context of a meeting of the Australian chapter of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP), the region’s most established 'Track 2' security forum. More

Order, change and discontent in Asia's security future Shaping up On Friday 5 February, the Lowy Institute's MacArthur Project team delivered a seminar at the Australian National University entitled 'Shaping Up: Order, Change and Discontent in Asia's Security Future.' The seminar was hosted jointly by the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre and Department of International Relations, with the support of the MacArthur Foundation and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Policing and Security A podcast is available here. More

The Lowy Institute China Poll 2009 China and the world: public opinion and foreign policy The Lowy Institute has just released its first China Poll, a wide-ranging survey of Chinese public opinion towards a number of important international policy issues. By what do the Chinese people feel threatened? How do they feel about foreign investment from Australia, Canada and the United States? Which country do the Chinese people regard as the best place to be educated and what do they think of Australia - is it a good place to visit, a country with attractive values or is it suspicious of China? The 2009 Lowy Institute China Poll asked a broad sample of the Chinese population these questions and others. The Poll was partly funded with the generous assistance of the MacArthur Foundation as part of the Lowy Institute’s MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project. Download item (244KB)

Andrew Shearer opinion piece Will America defend its Asian allies? In an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal, Andrew Shearer, Director of Studies and Senior Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute, analyses the Pentagon's recently-released 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review and comments on some of the implications for America’s allies in Asia. Wall Street Journal, 5 February 2010, p. 9 Download item (67KB)

New Lowy Institute Analysis Wicked weapons: North Asia's nuclear tangle The United States faces major challenges in engaging China, Japan and the Korean Peninsula in its quest for nuclear disarmament. In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf explores the ‘wicked’ nature of the region’s nuclear insecurity: how fixing one part of the problem risks aggravating others. He recommends ways forward, involving mutual and coordinated concessions among the United States, Japan and China, and taking account of the region’s strategic realities. This publication is supported by the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the Nuclear Security Project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative: www.nuclearsecurityproject.org. This project builds on the 2007 Wall Street Journal article 'A World Free of Nuclear Weapons' by George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger and Sam Nunn. Download item (536KB)

Media release Lowy Institute launches MacArthur Foundation Asian Security Project The Lowy Institute has launched a major new three-year project to explore the limits of security cooperation in Asia and promote measures to prevent the region's growing strategic rivalries from deepening and escalating into war. The project is supported by a generous grant from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. For more information please see the following media release. Download item (170KB)

Inaugural Grantees Meeting presentation The Lowy Institute's MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project On the 28-29 May, a team from the Lowy Institute attended the inaugural grantees meeting of the MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Initiative in Singapore. The team, led by Director of Studies Andrew Shearer, participated in a workshop alongside 26 partner institutions from the Asia-Pacific, which involved this short presentation introducing the Lowy Institute’s MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project. Download item (622KB)

MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project team Project brief In a recent project brief for the MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Initiative, the Lowy Institute’s MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project team outlined their project’s central objectives over the next three years, as well as its research methodology and means of dissemination. Download item (243KB)

Wicked weapons: North Asia's nuclear tangle Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Rory Medcalf presentation At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 24 June, Rory Medcalf, Program Director International Security, drew upon recent consultations in the region to warn that efforts to reduce global nuclear dangers will founder if they do not account for the rising strategic concerns of North Asian powers, especially China and Japan. Mr Medcalf’s research for this presentation was supported by the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the Nuclear Security Project (www.nuclearsecurityproject.org). His presentation can be heard here: Wicked weapons - MP3 (19MB) Video of this presentation is also available. More

Japanese translation of Lowy Institute Perspective Going global - Japanese version In 'Going global: a new Australia-Japan agenda for multilateral cooperation', a Lowy Institute report released on 30 April 2009, supported by the Australia-Japan Foundation, Andrew Shearer and Malcolm Cook proposed a new agenda for multilateral cooperation between Australia and Japan. That report is now available for download here in Japanese. Download item (548KB)

New Lowy Institute Perspective Australia and Japan: Going global In new Lowy Institute report, supported by the Australia-Japan Foundation, Andrew Shearer and Malcolm Cook propose a new agenda for multilateral cooperation between Australia and Japan. The growing international weight of Asia and the forces of globalisation are expanding the number of issues states must manage and respond to in new ways. Yet, the traditional multilateral organisations are under growing strain and have proven largely ineffective. Japan and Australia, as long-standing supporters of an effective multilateral world and complementary powers in Asia, are well placed to cooperate more intensely on a range of multilateral issues and through new groupings like the G-20 and Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate. Australia-Japan cooperation in Iraq from 2004 to 2006 and the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmaments are good building blocks. Much more should be done. Download item (613KB)