After Fukushima: Nuclear power without proliferation?
 There were high expectations for the growth of nuclear power in the years leading up to the Fukushima nuclear accident on 11 March 2011, as concerns about energy security and climate change prompted governments to reconsider their energy options. But the expansion of nuclear power has posed serious challenges to the non-proliferation regime, raising new questions about threats and risks.
At the Lowy Lecture on 1 December 2011, these issues were examined by an expert panel: Professor Scott Sagan, John Carlson and Martine Letts.
The panelists can be heard here:
After Fukushima: Nuclear power without proliferation? - MP3 (22MB)
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| Rory Medcalf opinion piece |
Guns quiet for now but hermit kingdom stirs In an opinion piece in The Australian, Rory Medcalf, Director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Program, writes that with the death of North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il, Asia will be bracing for instability. A key question is whether his successor...
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| Hugh White opinion piece |
Blind faith leads to great folly In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White writes that Australia will repeat dangerous mistakes unless it learns to rigorously question its most powerful ally.
The Age, 21 December 2011, p. 11
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War tweets
In his latest column in American Review, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf looks at the growing use of twitter as a propaganda tool in warfare, from Afghanistan to Somalia.
The column can be read here.
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Australia's nuclear choices
As the recent debate over uranium exports to India indicates, uranium exports remain a highly contentious domestic and foreign policy issue for Australians. In a recent publication 'Australia’s Uranium Trade: The Domestic and Foreign Policy Challenges of a Contentious Export', Lowy Institute nuclear experts Rory Medcalf, Martine Letts and Fiona Cunningham have contributed chapters analysing the drivers of Australian policy and some of the key future challenges for Australian policymakers.
Rory Medcalf examines the drivers of Australian uranium export policy with regard to Russia, China and India in his chapter 'Powering major powers'. Martine Letts and Fiona Cunningham argue the case for more active nuclear industry engagement with the non-proliferation regime in a chapter drawing on original survey data collected under the auspices of the International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament.
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On the cusp of an Indian summer
In this opinion piece in the Indian Express newspaper, published on the eve of the Australian Labor Party’s historic policy change allowing safeguarded uranium exports to India, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf examines what an obstacle this issue had become to a trust-based Australia-India partnership. He also sought to explain for Indian readers the complex reasons for Australian Labor’s slow and tortuous policy shift on this issue.
Indian Express, 3 December 2011, p. 15
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Uranium Debate : Australia’s uranium puzzle: Why China and Russia but not India?
On the eve of the Australian Labor Party’s debate about whether to allow uranium exports to India, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf examines the complex reasons behind Australian Government decisions on uranium exports to that country as well as to China and Russia.
He argues that economics is not the main driver of export decisions, and that nuclear non-proliferation is only one of a range of factors that governments consider. The paper, published by the Australia-India Institute in its ‘Fearless Nadia’ series, can be accessed here.
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Obama in Australia: balancing not containment
In this article for the website China-US Focus, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf takes a sceptical look at claims that President Obama’s visit to Australia was part of a strategy to 'contain' China’s rise. Click here to access the full article.
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Politics will determine Uruzgan exit strategy
In an opinion piece in The Sydney Morning Herald, Lowy Institute Military Associate James Brown writes that the timeline for withdrawing Australian troops from Afghanistan is largely out of the Government's hands.
Sydney Morning Herald, 13 December 2011, p. 9
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The Obama Doctrine
In an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that the U.S. plan to take on China recalls Harry Truman's containment of the Soviet Union.
Wall Street Journal, 25 November 2011
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Make no mistake, the Iranians will have their nuclear way
In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that Tehran's arms plans can't be halted: we need to focus on how we live with them.
The Age, 6 December 2011, p. 11
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Buildup Down Under
In this article for Foreign Policy.com, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf outlines the Asia-Pacific strategic vision behind Obama’s historic 2011 speech in Canberra – but also suggests that more could have been done to prepare most Australians for such a declaration.
The article can be accessed here.
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Dear Mr President, we beg to differ over the future of Asia
In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that Australia should tell Obama we take a different view on China.
The Age, 16 November 2011, p. 21
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Grand stakes: Australia’s future between China and India
On the eve of President Obama's November 2011 visit to Australia, it is clear that Canberra is seeking an Indo-Pacific strategy for an era of Chinese, Indian and sustained American power. The contours of such a strategy were assessed by the Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, Rory Medcalf, in his contribution to the 2011-12 edition of the authoritative Strategic Asia series of books, published by the US National Bureau of Asian Research in September 2011. His chapter provides the first parallel analysis of Australia’s relations with China and India in the new Asian strategic environment, and proposes ways to transform Australia-India relations (such as uranium sales) as well as to adjust the US alliance for the Asian century.
Mr Medcalf spoke recently at the launch of the book in Washington DC, and the video of the launch event can be accessed here.
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Uranium sales to India would spread trust, not nuclear arms
In this opinion piece in The Age newspaper, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf addresses the common non-proliferation criticisms of possible Australian uranium sales to India. He writes that, on balance, a policy change at the December 2011 Australian Labor Party conference would build a new foundation of trust in Australia-India relations and help Canberra adapt to a changed non-proliferation order in the Asian century.
The Age, 2 December 2011, p. 15
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Shared goals, converging interests: a plan for US-Australia-India cooperation in the Indo-Pacific
In this major new report launched on 4 November, scholars from the Lowy Institute, the Heritage Foundation and the Observer Research Foundation identify common challenges and opportunities facing Australia, India and the United States in the Indo-Pacific region.
The report notes that Australia-India security relations are underdeveloped and calls for the establishment of a new United States-India-Australia trilateral security dialogue.
Influential Australian foreign policy commentator Greg Sheridan welcomed the report in this front-page newspaper article.
The report will also be launched in New Delhi on Monday 7 November.
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China and India: Beyond competitive coexistence
Rory Medcalf, the Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, recently gave public lectures in Washington DC and in Melbourne on China-India relations and the risks of strategic competition between Asia’s rising giants. His Washington talk, at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, sought to identify the ways in which a possible security rivalry between the two powers could be measured. His Melbourne talk, at the inaugural Australia-India Institute conference, looked more broadly at the past, present and future of relations between New Delhi and Beijing.
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Our chance to align with the US pivot point
In this opinion piece in The Australian, the Lowy Institute's Rory Medcalf argues that Australia has an opportunity to work closely with the United States as it makes a three-fold strategic pivot: from the Middle East to Asia, from an Asia-Pacific to an Indo-Pacific concept, and towards more dispersed military access and basing which makes use of Australia's unique Indo-Pacific geography. This, he argues, is about transnational threats and balancing China, not some notion of containment.
The Australian, 15 November 2011, p. 9
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The diplomatic tweet
In his latest column in the journal American Review, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf argues that diplomats, spies, journalists and analysts who shun social media are at risk of becoming the blacksmiths of the information age: quaint, heavy-handed and unviable.
His column can be accessed here.
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Lowy Lecture Series - Brigadier Roger Noble presentation
At the Lowy Lecture on 9 November 2011, Brigadier Roger Noble outlined long-term factors which should guide the way the ADF structures Special Operations Command. Brigadier Roger Noble is the author of The Future Special Operations Concept 2030 which argues that Australia's Special Forces need to be prepared for a future in which there is no peace or war, just constant competition.
His presentation can be heard here:
The future of Special Forces - MP3 (20MB)
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AIIA President’s Forum: Australia and India in 2020
At the 2011 President’s Forum of the Australian Institute for International Affairs, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf spoke of the promise and prospects for Australia-India relations for the next generation.
A video of his presentation can be accessed here.
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Lowy Lecture Series - Dr Albert Palazzo presentation
At the Lowy Lecture on 2 November 2011, Dr Albert Palazzo from the Australian Army's Directorate of Research and Analysis contrasted the US and Australia's success in achieving their strategic objectives in going to war with Iraq. He argued that in Iraq the United States failed to achieve its purpose in going to war, but by contrast the war proved a victory for Australia – an outcome determined by the two countries' different strategic objectives. He assessed how Australia, as a minor coalition partner, orchestrated this success, and whether it was worthwhile.
His presentation can be heard here:
Assessing the war in Iraq: an Australian strategic perspective - MP3 (19MB)
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The dangers of denial: nuclear weapons in China-India relations
In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Research Associate Fiona Cunningham and International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf warn of growing security risks in the relationship between Asia’s nuclear-armed rising powers China and India. An asymmetry of capabilities and threat perceptions is helping to drive these dangers. The authors call for a strategy stability dialogue to begin between China and India, embedded in a relationship of greater mutual respect, to ensure that possible future confrontations do not involve nuclear threats or misjudgments. This publication is supported by the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the Nuclear Security Project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, www.nuclearsecurityproject.org.
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Lonely power, staying power
In the latest Strategic Snapshot, Dr John Lee, Adjunct Associate Professor and Michael Hintze Fellow in Energy Security at the University of Sydney, challenges a number of assumptions about the transformation of Asia’s security environment. Contrary to expectations, he argues, the United States will remain the pre-eminent strategic actor in the region for a number of reasons that will be difficult to alter, while China’s capacity for translating economic size into strategic leverage is problematic now and likely to face sharp limits into the future.
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Lowy Lecture Series - Professor Hugh White presentation
For many people, questions about the future of ANZUS hardly arise. They believe that after 60 years, the alliance endures as the inevitable and unchangeable foundation of Australia's international posture. But the strength of any alliance depends ultimately on shared interests. As power shifts in Asia, Australia's and America's interests are shifting too, and quite possibly diverging. Those who want the alliance to stay strong in the Asian Century must consider what this means for the two partners, and how they can best keep their interests aligned and their alliance strong. To flourish in a very different Asia, ANZUS will need to become a very different alliance. At the Lowy Lecture on 21 September 2011, Professor Hugh White discussed these issues.
His presentation can be heard here:
ANZUS beyond 60: a different alliance in a different Asia - MP3 (21MB)
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Australia's future hostage to rivalry between China and US
In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White writes that Australia's big mining companies need to take a stand on geopolitical hazards.
The Age, 25 October 2011, p. 11
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Inaugural India-China Workshop
 On 17 and 18 October 2011, the Lowy Institute hosted the inaugural India-China Workshop, an informal dialogue bringing together Australian, Indian, Chinese and Singaporean experts. At the public concluding event, a new Lowy Institute Analysis, 'The Dangers of Denial', on the nuclear dimension of India-China relations, was launched by its authors and discussed by two Workshop participants.
The speakers at the launch can be heard here:
The Dangers of Denial: the nuclear dimension of India-China relations - MP3 (20MB)
Click on the image above to watch a video of the launch.
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No defence to warship blowout
In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that Australia's $8 billion commitment to the construction of three Air Warfare Destroyers is a waste of money — too expensive and out of line with our strategic interests.
The Age, 27 September 2011, p. 11
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Australia-India Roundtable
 At the conclusion of the Australia-India Roundtable held at the Lowy Institute on 19-20 September 2011, four key participants - Ambassador Shyam Saran and Ambassador Ric Smith AO PSM as well as conveners Rory Medcalf and Navdeep Suri - discussed key ideas emerging from the dialogue. The Roundtable involved leading figures from diplomacy, business, media and think tanks, and is the most substantial such meeting yet held between the two countries.
Their presentations can be heard here:
Advancing Australia-India relations: Public panel - MP3 (19MB)
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Andrew Shearer interviewed by Tony Delroy on the future of the Afghanistan conflict
On Nightlife on 5 October 2011, Tony Delroy interviewed Andrew Shearer and the author of An Unwinnable War, Karen Middleton, on the future of the Afghanistan war.
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Time to forge a partnership for the Asian Century
In this op-ed in The Australian, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf, convener of the Australia-India Roundtable, teams with leading Indian foreign policy commentator Raja Mohan to propose a way forward in Australia-India relations. Australia should sell uranium to India and India needs to get serious about closer security links with Australia. Both nations need to move beyond misperception.
The Australian, 19 September 2011, p. 10
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Roundtable Outcomes Statement
The Outcomes Statement of the 2011 Australia-India Roundtable held at the Lowy Institute on Monday 20 September 2011 has been released and is available for download here.
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Uncharted waters: the US alliance and Australia's new era of strategic uncertainty
September 2011 marks two important milestones – the tenth anniversary of the devastating 9/11 terrorist attacks and the 60th anniversary of the signing of the ANZUS security treaty during the height of the Cold War.
In a new paper in the Lowy Institute’s Perspective series, 'Uncharted waters: the US alliance and Australia’s new era of strategic uncertainty', Andrew Shearer reviews Australian public attitudes towards the US alliance in the wake of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and America’s unprecedented credit downgrading.
Launched on 17th August, this unique take on the future of the alliance was immediately picked up by national commentators, adding to a robust discussion and debate on US-China commentary.
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Risks of US alliance rising as value falls
In an opinion piece in The Age, Raoul Heinrichs, editor of the Lowy Institute's Strategic Snapshot Series, argues that Canberra is making dangerous assumptions about our Washington ties.
The Age, 15 September 2011, p. 15
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Rory Medcalf on Margaret Throsby’s Morning Interview
Rory Medcalf, the Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security program, was the featured guest on ABC Classic FM’s morning program with Margaret Throsby on 30 August. The interview ranged widely, covering India’s rise, Australia-India relations, the politics of conflict, and, of course, music.
The interview is available at: http://www.abc.net.au/classic/throsby/stories/s3303357.htm
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China's carrier is no cause for regional alarm
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Research Associate Ashley Townshend and Shashank Joshi, an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, London, write that the Varyag, China's first aircraft carrier, is on a course to national pride.
The Australian, 6 September 2011, p. 8
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Arming the country for cyber attack
In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White writes that in the context of cyber war,
Australia should let enemies know it is ready for a virtual battle.
The Age, 13 September 2011, p. 13
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China shifts the Pacific waters with its aircraft carrier trials
In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White writes that the United States will have to rethink its western Pacific naval policy.
The Age, 30 August 2011, p. 13
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Al-Qaeda distracted the US from the real threat to its dominance
In a Sydney Morning Herald opinion piece, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White writes on the real challenges to the United States' global role.
Sydney Morning Herald, 10 September 2011
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Advance Column: Turning to twitter
In his regular column in the August 2011 edition of the journal American Review, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf examines the value of twitter for foreign policy think tanks and journalists.
The article can be accessed here:
http://americanreviewmag.com/opinions/Advance-column-August-2011
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Troubled waters: the implications of China’s first aircraft carrier
In a RUSI Commentary piece, Ashley Townshend and co-author Shashank Joshi write that, far from transforming Asia’s naval balance, the launch of China’s first aircraft carrier will only begin to expose China to the rigours of modern naval warfare. The region should respond to the strategic ripples by steering carefully between complacency and alarmism.
RUSI Commentary, 16 August 2011
http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref
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Resident power: the case for an enhanced US military presence in Australia
In the latest Lowy Strategic Snapshot, Dr Toshi Yoshihara, Associate Professor at the US Naval War College and co-author of the influential book 'Red Star Over the Pacific', makes a strong case for an expanded US military presence in Australia. Dr Yoshihara argues that the rise of China and India, together with the proliferation of precision-guided strike capabilities in Asia, requires rethinking America's existing regional military basing arrangements. Australia's pivotal location between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, existing military infrastructure in the north and west, and political stability are all bringing Australia's geostrategic importance into sharper focus for US defence planners.
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Launch of Antarctica Policy Brief
 In the Food for Thought event in Canberra on 8 August 2011, National Security Fellow Ellie Fogarty launched a report that analyses what Australia’s national interests in Antarctica are, and considers how they might best be protected and advanced in the future. She was joined in a panel discussion by Mr Brett Biddington and Professor Don Rothwell.
Their presentations can be heard here:
Launch of Antarctica Policy Brief - MP3 (22MB)
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Antarctica: assessing and protecting Australia's national interests
In this Policy Brief from the Lowy Institute’s inaugural National Security Fellow, Ellie Fogarty identifies long-term threats to Australia’s dormant claim to 42 per cent of Antarctica. These include growing interest in the continent’s resource potential from such major powers as China and Russia. The paper recommends policy changes and capability investments to protect Australia’s interests.
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America is rotting at its core
In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White writes that as China rapidly ascends in influence, its superpower rival seems unable to face up to its failings.
The Age, 16 August 2011, p. 15
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Crisis and Confidence ‘leads naval affairs narrative’
The Lowy Institute-MacArthur Foundation report on Asian maritime security, Crisis and Confidence, has won plaudits from leading naval blog Information Dissemination. Crisis and Confidence is referred to as ‘perhaps the most frequently publicly discussed think tank content produced in 2011 related to maritime affairs in the Pacific’, with the Lowy Institute and its Asian security team ‘leading the public naval affairs narrative by being the leading think tank content and ideas provider’. The full item can be read here:
http://www.informationdissemination.net/2011/07/think-tanks-media-and-future-of-ideas.html
The full text of Crisis and Confidence can be downloaded here:
http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=1618
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Crisis and confidence: major powers and maritime security
 Asia's security tensions at sea are back on top of the global strategic agenda with the July 2011 visit to China by US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen. The Lowy Institute recently launched a major new publication on this subject. During the launch event in Canberra on 28 June, a presentation by principal author Rory Medcalf was followed by a panel discussion involving the authors and Director of Studies Andrew Shearer. The full text of Crisis and Confidence is available here.
The presentations can be heard here:
Crisis and confidence: major powers and maritime security - MP3 (21MB)
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Bluffing their way into crisis
In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White writes that Australia can play a role smoothing the waters between the United States and China in the South China Sea.
The Age, 2 August 2011, p. 11
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The challenge of innovation in the Australian Army
In this article in Security Challenges, James Brown argues that in an environment of fiscal austerity and strategic uncertainty, the defining challenge for the Australian Army after Afghanistan will be to foster innovation. He argues that despite having excellent soldiers and officers, the market for new ideas in the Army is anemic and there have been few innovative Australian contributions to modern warfare. He suggests that the new Chief of Army should focus on expressly designing systems to stimulate new ideas, incubate the best ones, and communicate them throughout Army.
Security Challenges, Vol. 7, No. 2, Winter 2011, pp. 13-18
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How to avoid crisis and find trust in the South China Sea
In this article for China-US Focus, the Lowy Institute's Rory Medcalf assesses the outcomes from the July 2011 visit to China by US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen. He concludes that the confidence-building measures from that visit fall short of what is needed to prevent conflict at sea.
The article can be accessed here:
http://www.chinausfocus.com/slider/how-to-avoid-crisis-and-find-trust-in-the-south-china-sea/
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Recognition for Lowy-MacArthur maritime security report
In an article in the Indian Express newspaper, leading Indian strategic commentator Raja Mohan reviews 'Crisis and Confidence', a major report on Asian maritime security prepared under the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the MacArthur Foundation’s Asia Security Initiative. He describes the report as possibly 'the first comprehensive discussion of ways to lower naval tensions in Asia'. Raja Mohan’s article can be found here:
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/mosquito-fleet/813231/0
The full text of 'Crisis and Confidence', by Rory Medcalf and Raoul Heinrichs with Justin Jones, can be accessed here:
http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=1618
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Is the Afghan campaign worth a further 42 Australian lives?
In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that without progress in Afghanistan, the lives of Diggers will have been squandered.
The Age, 12 July 2011, p. 13
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Unselfish giants? Understanding China and India as security providers
In this article in a 2011 special issue of the Australian Journal of International Affairs, Lowy Institute program director Rory Medcalf assesses the drivers and strategic impacts of the increasing roles of the Chinese and Indian militaries as providers of global security public goods.
Australian Journal of International Affairs, Special Issue: Collaboration, Governance, and Security in the Asia-Pacific: Challenges for Australia and China, July 2011
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Prospects for Pacific maritime security co-operation 'of coral made'
In this article in the Pacific Ecologist, Lowy Institute contributor Nick Floyd argues that with marine resources in neighbouring countries under increasing environmental and financial stresses, Australia could help both itself and other states by providing funding, expertise and technical support to assist in prioritising conservation efforts and secure marine areas.
Pacific Ecologist, Winter 2011, pp. 48-50
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Asia's maritime confidence crisis
In this article for The Diplomat, Raoul Heinrichs and Rory Medcalf explore the causes, risks and consequences of maritime encounters in Indo-Pacific Asia. Based on their recent report, Crisis and Confidence, the piece concludes with a number of recommendations aimed at enhancing stability at sea amid increasing mistrust among the region's major powers.
The Diplomat, 27 June 2011
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Right arguments, wrong ocean?
In this book review roundtable for the journal Asia Policy, the Lowy Institute’s Rory Medcalf appraises the core arguments of Red Star over the Pacific, by Toshi Yoshihara and Jonathan R. Holmes. Mr Medcalf focuses on the book’s treatment of China’s Indian Ocean ambitions.
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Dangerous luxuries
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Brookings Institution Federal Executive Fellow John Angevine writes that Australia’s current defence strategy does not correspond with the realities of Australia’s security situation. The plan for the modernisation of the Australian Defence Force (ADF) is focused on expensive maritime and air capabilities for conflicts that the ADF couldn’t fight alone. Consequently, the ADF is exposed with an atrophying ground force and expeditionary capability for the low-level regional operations in which it will be most likely to engage.
The ANZUS alliance is emerging as the cornerstone alliance for stability in the Asia-Pacific region but the US must understand the implications Australian defence planning will have on the future alliance.
The Brookings Institution has published a version of this paper at: http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2011/0601_military_capabilities_angevine.aspx
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Grasping the nettle: why reintegration is central to operational design in southern Afghanistan
Reintegration not only has a role for all actors in a counterinsurgency — police, civil and military — but indeed demands of them a common purpose, and a truly concerted effort to attain it. Moreover, lasting reintegration is much harder to foster and generate than simply announcing a policy.
In the inaugural Occasional Paper released by the Asia-Pacific Civil-Military Centre of Excellence, former Chief of Army Visiting Fellow and Lowy Institute contributor Lieutenant Colonel Nick Floyd argues that the reintegration of Afghan society can be viewed as a core component of the Coalition’s strategic success, and a focusing purpose to the design of operations along and across all avenues of endeavour.
The article can be read here.
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Crisis and confidence: major powers and maritime security in Indo-Pacific Asia
Maritime tensions remain at the top of the Asian security agenda, with the 22-23 July 2011 meetings in Bali of the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Regional Forum. These issues are at the core of a major recent report from the Lowy Institute’s MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project, which warns of the risks of war in the South China Sea and other regional waters. Authors Rory Medcalf and Raoul Heinrichs, with maritime adviser Justin Jones, examine the drivers of Asia’s maritime ‘crisis of confidence’, including clashes of sovereignty, national pride and military strategy. They conclude with a modest and realistic set of ‘confidence-building’ recommendations to avert conflict at sea, both in East Asia and across the wider Indo-Pacific region.
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All at sea over Beijing brinkmanship
In this commentary article in The Australian, the director of the Lowy Institute’s international security program, Rory Medcalf, warns that China’s assertive actions at sea could end in conflict unless there are renewed efforts at dialogue and practical confidence-building measures. This is based on a forthcoming publication under the Lowy-MacArthur Asia Security Project.
The Australian, 27 June 2011, p. 9
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Weathering change
For decades, extended nuclear deterrence (END) has supported stability and non-proliferation. But questions need to be asked about whether and how it might effectively endure in a changing world. Is END somehow coming to an end? Or should it and can it adapt to a 21st century strategic environment involving new threats, shifting power balances and fresh moves towards non-proliferation and disarmament?
In Weathering Change, prominent global experts and emerging scholars share their core assessments on the future of the so-called nuclear umbrella. Their points of difference and agreement make essential reading for anyone concerned about the future of international security and the practical prospects for eliminating nuclear dangers. This publication represents the Lowy Institute’s contribution to the Nuclear Security Project’s May 2011 conference and is designed to stimulate the thinking of policy leaders and opinion makers worldwide.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Colonel John Angevine presentation
At the Wednesday Lunch on 1 June, Colonel John Angevine spoke via video link at the Lowy Institute to discuss his Lowy Institute paper that reviews Australia’s defence strategy and the structure of the Australian Defence Force. Colonel Angevine argued that the strategy and force structure outlined in Australia’s Defence White Paper is flawed, leaves the Australian Defence Force vulnerable to mission failure, and will make Australians more dependent on the United States.
The interview can be heard here:
Dangerous luxuries: Australia's flawed defence strategy - MP3 (19MB)
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More to do in Oruzgan
In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Non-resident Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan argues that we must stay the course in Afghanistan as a withdrawal now would harm our interests.
The Age, 14 June 2011, p. 11
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Yemen's short spring season
In an opinion piece in The Drum, Lowy Institute Non-resident Fellow Rodger Shanahan writes on the potential for the flowering of democracy in Yemen.
The Drum, 6 June 2011
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Tomes, tweets and think tanks
In his latest Advance Column in the US Studies Centre journal American Review, Lowy Institute International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf reviews five important new books on Asian security, ranging across Sino-Japanese relations, China's naval ambitions and the challenges facing Indian military modernisation. Mr Medcalf also uses the column to question whether think tanks are making effective use of social media such as twitter.
The full column can be found here:
http://www.americanreviewmag.com/Columns
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Lowy Institute public lecture - Dr Gregory Treverton
As Australia awaits the results of an Independent Review into the Intelligence Community and debate over shared secrets rages after WikiLeaks, Dr Gregory Treverton, director of the RAND Corporation’s Center for Global Risk and Security, analysed how the collection and sharing of intelligence has changed since the end of the Cold War in a public lecture at the Lowy Institute on 3 May.
His presentation can be heard here:
Reshaping national intelligence - MP3 (20MB)
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Alexey Muraviev presentation
At the Wednesday Lunch on 27 April, Dr Alexey Muraviev spoke about Russia's regional strategic policy and national defence priorities in the Far East and the Indo-Pacific. Dr Muraviev is a senior lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies and a strategic affairs analyst in the School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages at Curtin University.
His presentation can be heard here:
A 'sleeping giant' of the north: understanding Russia's strategic policy and defence priorities in the Indo-Pacific - MP3 (21MB)
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Few reasons to fear China's 'pearls'
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Research Associate Ashley Townshend writes that Beijing's strategic designs in the Indian Ocean are exaggerated.
The Australian, 27 May 2011, p. 9
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Diplomacy, transparency and public opinion
In this article in leading Spanish-language international affairs journal Politica Exterior, Lowy Institute program director Rory Medcalf examines the consequences of the publication of thousands of classified diplomatic cables by WikiLeaks.
The original article in Spanish can be accessed at:
http://www.politicaexterior.com/articulo?id=4632
An English-language text of the article is available here.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Rory Medcalf presentation
 In recent years, the idea of a looming struggle between China and India has seized the imaginations of prominent strategists and journalists. Here are two rising Asian great powers with rapid economic growth, expanding global interests and modernising militaries.
In this Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Rory Medcalf explored some plausible paths for a bilateral relationship with vast potential to shape or shake the world's and Australia's future.
His presentation can be heard here:
Unravelling rivalry: China and India - MP3 (21MB)
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West must rethink way it deals with Islamabad
In this op-ed in The Australian, the director of the Lowy Institute’s international security program, Rory Medcalf, argues that the discovery and death of Bin Laden on the doorstep on Pakistan’s military academy raises fundamental questions about Islamabad as an ally against terrorism. It is time for Australia and other nations to rethink the military aid to Pakistan. Supporting the police and civil society would be a better bet.
The Australian, 4 May 2011, p. 11
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Military power blooms again in this troubled Arab spring
Lowy Institute Non-resident Fellow Rodger Shanahan writes on the lessons being drawn from the political unrest in the Arab world.
The Drum - Opinion, 16 May 2011
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Long list of woes awaits the next emir of al-Qaeda
In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Non-resident Fellow Rodger Shanahan writes that the death of Osama bin Laden is the end of one chapter of the battle against al-Qaeda.
The Age, 4 May 2011, p. 19
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Gillard's diplomatic skills tested during north Asia visit
In this opinion piece in The Sydney Morning Herald, the director of the Lowy Institute’s international security program, Rory Medcalf, analyses the diplomatic minefields that Prime Minister Julia Gillard will need to navigate on her visit to Japan, South Korea and China.
Sydney Morning Herald, 23 April 2011, p. 13
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2010-11 Thawley scholar announced
The Lowy Institute is pleased to announce the awarding of the 2010-11 Michael and Deborah Thawley Scholarship in International Security. This year’s Thawley Scholar is Esther Sainsbury, who was selected from a very competitive field including scholars and promising young officials. Esther currently works for the Australian Defence Department. Her professional experience includes working as a member of the 2009 Defence Department White Paper team. Esther has a Masters degree in Strategic and Defence studies and a BA (Hons) in Asian Studies with majors in Indonesian language and strategic and defence studies from the Australian National University (ANU). The scholarship will involve a placement at the Lowy Institute in Sydney as well as at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC, and will involve research towards a possible publication.
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India, China and the United States: Asia's emerging strategic triangle
In this contribution to the Lowy Institute's Strategic Snapshot series, leading Indian analyst C. Raja Mohan argues that the triangular dynamic among the United States, India and China will be critical to Asia's strategic future. He examines the complex pattern of power balancing and diplomatic engagement that is defining these relations, marked by a sequence of high-level visits at the end of 2010 and beginning of 2011.
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Gillard treads finest of lines in China trip
In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White writes that, after wowing the US, the Prime Minister faces her toughest test: to woo Beijing.
The Age, 20 April 2011, p. 19
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Professor Douglas Stuart presentation
With the creation of the Northern Command in 2002 and the Africa Command in 2007 the US military became the first truly global military presence in history. US Combatant Commanders are often called ‘proconsuls’ in a worldwide network of US military bases. This situation poses many problems for a republic that is historically suspicious of military power. On 23 March, Professor Douglas Stuart addressed three of these problems.
His presentation can be heard here:
The militarisation of American foreign policy - MP3 (21MB)
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Julia Gillard's North Asian challenge
In this extended interview on ABC News 24, Lowy Institute program director for international security Rory Medcalf examines the challenges facing Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard on her first round of bilateral visits to Japan, South Korea and China, three top Australian trading partners with clashing interests in a strategically volatile region.
The interview can be heard here:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2011/04/19/3196020.htm
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Politics rules and scandals blow up in public but Defence just ignores the indefensible
In an opinion piece in The Sydney Morning Herald, Lowy Institute Military Associate James Brown argues that communication is non-existent in a no-comment culture.
Sydney Morning Herald, 16 April 2011, p. 4
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Libya: the West's responsibility to protect
Lowy Institute Non-resident fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan writes in The Drum on the concept of humanitarian intervention in Arab states in the context of the imposition of the no-fly zone over Libya.
The Drum, 4 April 2011
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Nuclear Threat Initiative: Joan Rohlfing interview
In this extended interview on ABC Radio's Saturday Extra program, the president of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), Joan Rohlfing, speaks about NTI's work and the key nuclear dangers facing the world, from instability in Pakistan to US and Russian nuclear alert status. NTI has a partnership with the Lowy Institute through the Nuclear Security Project.
The interview can be heard here:
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/saturdayextra/stories/2011/3154994.htm
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No-fly zone must have an objective
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Ashley Townshend, Program Associate for International Security, argues that without a clear rationale, intervention in Libya risks repeating past mistakes.
The Australian, 19 March 2011, p. 20
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PM faces challenge of deeper alliance
In this op-ed in The Australian, senior Lowy Institute strategic analysts Rory Medcalf and Andrew Shearer argue for an enhanced Australia-US alliance to meet the challenges of the new age of the Indo-Pacific. They note that Julia Gillard’s March 2011 visit to the United States offers an opportunity to put her mark on external policy by exploring questions of an expanded US naval presence, including in Western Australia.
The Australian, 7 March 2011, p. 9
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Flight ban a perilous gamble for the West
In an opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White writes that if an exclusion zone over Libya fails, as is probable, we will be drawn in deeper.
The Age, 17 March 2011, p. 17
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China's rise must change Gillard's script
In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that the Prime Minister has a rare opportunity to influence US strategic thinking.
Australian Financial Review, 7 March 2011, p. 55
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Professor Andrew Mack presentation
International conflicts have declined dramatically over the past 60 years. At the Wednesday Lowy Lunch on 23 February, Professor Andrew Mack examined the nature of these positive changes, their causes and their implications for international security policies.
His presentation can be heard here:
A more secure world? - MP3 (21MB)
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In remembrance of India’s nuclear and strategic guru
In this obituary essay in Foreign Policy magazine, Lowy Institute International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf pays tribute to K Subrahmanyam, independent India’s leading strategic thinker, who passed away on 2 February 2011. Subrahmanyam strongly influenced India’s decision both to build a nuclear deterrent and to constrain it with a policy of no first use. He combined a lifelong sense of duty, a sharp awareness of security dynamics and a democratic ethos.
The full text can be accessed here:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/03/in_remembrance_of_indias_nuclear_and_strategic_guru?page=full
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Between the clawing eagle and the ascendant dragon: the demise of the Philippines' policy of hedging
In the Lowy Institute's latest Strategic Snapshot, Professor Renato Cruz De Castro, of De La Salle University, Manila, explores the triangular strategic dynamic between the United States, China and the Philippines. While Manila has, like other countries in Asia, successfully navigated this arrangement with a two-way hedging strategy, according to Professor De Castro, China's growing assertiveness, Washington's efforts to balance Beijing's increasing political clout, and Manila's slow drift to a closer security relationship with Washington are all gradually undermining the circumstances in which Manila has been able to maintain this delicate balance.
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Secrecy and stratagem: understanding Chinese strategic culture
To cope with a rising China, other powers will need a close understanding of Chinese strategic culture. This Lowy-MacArthur paper, by Professor Thomas Mahnken of the US Naval War College, presents an initial attempt to redress this gap. It seeks to identify the enduring features of Chinese strategic culture, assess their role in Chinese policy and consider their implications for the future posture and responses of the People's Liberation Army. Drawing on ancient texts, modern official documents and accounts of Beijing's decision-making during crises, Secrecy and Strategem raises important questions about the potentially risky relationship between Chinese strategic culture, misperception and miscalculation in Asia's uncertain security future.
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Sino-Indian maritime relations: managing mistrust in the Indian Ocean
In the Lowy Institute's latest Strategic Snapshot, International Security Program Associate Ashley Townshend explores the strategic dynamics between China and India in the Indian Ocean. While the potential for rivalry exists, Mr Townshend argues that the combination of a skewed distribution of capabilities and collective interest in stability, together with a range of enhanced confidence-building mechanisms, should go a long way to dampening the region's underlying competitive impulses.
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The Defence debate down under, in context
In this piece for the CSIS Asia policy blog Cogitasia, the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that a new independent report calling for Australian strategic clout against China needs to be seen in context, and not as a representation of official Australian thinking. Australia is strengthening its defences in light of the rise of China, but not as single-mindedly or provocatively as the new report suggests.
It is available on Cogitasia.
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Breaking down old barriers
In this op-ed in The Times of India, Program Director Rory Medcalf argues the case for Australia to end its ban on uranium exports to India, in order to fulfil a much-needed strategic partnership between the two Indian Ocean democracies. This is an extended version of a piece that first appeared in The Age.
Times of India, 25 January 2011, p. 20
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The 2010-11 Michael and Deborah Thawley Scholarship
Applications are open for the 2010-11 Michael and Deborah Thawley Scholarship in International Security, offered by the Lowy Institute in partnership with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. This is an exceptional opportunity for an emerging Australian strategic thinker – such as a junior official or postgraduate student – to take part in the work of two leading think tanks dedicated to generating original and policy-oriented ideas and research on world affairs.
For full details please go the Recruitment section at:
http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Recruitment.asp
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Time to sell uranium to India
Rory Medcalf argues that Australia should lift its ban on uranium sales to India, for the sake of economics, climate change and international fairness.
The Age, 21 January 2011, p 15
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Superpower China won't settle for second place
In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White writes that for the sake of peace in Asia, China must be granted a leadership role, but it must accept that it can't have everything its own way.
Australian Financial Review, 10 January 2011, p. 47
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Extended deterrence: South Korean workshop
On 23 November, a Lowy Institute team led by International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf co-hosted a major consultative workshop in Seoul with South Korean, Japanese, Australian and American experts, looking at the future of extended deterrence in North Asia. This was the Institute's first major event in South Korea, and was held in partnership with the South Korean Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security as well as the Japan Institute of International Affairs, with support from the Nuclear Security Project. These closed-door discussions examined the fundamental security challenges in the region and considered the mix of nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities that the United States and its allies require to deter large-scale conflict. Views on the feasability of nuclear disarmament were tested. Fresh tensions on the Korean Peninsula - over uranium enrichment and the 23 November North Korean artillery attack - underscored the relevance of this dialogue.
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Dropping the autopilot: improving Australia's defence diplomacy
Australia’s military forces have often acted as effective agents of international policy. But while defence diplomacy has complemented Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade efforts, this has often been due to ad hoc coordination and personal initiative. Despite recent improvements, Australia cannot risk allowing any of its military diplomacy to be on autopilot, especially given how strained its diplomatic resources are across the board. In this policy brief, Chief of Army Fellow Nick Floyd argues there is a need to understand what defence diplomacy can offer Australia’s international policy activities, and to provide clearer strategic guidance to align Department of Defence and wider diplomatic planning.
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Ruinous US-China relations the big danger from North Korea
In this opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that the greatest damage from the November 2010 North Korean bombardment could be to US-China relations and thus to peace among the great powers in Asia.
The Age, 25 November 2010, p. 21
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Japan-China maritime relations: dealing with new dimensions
In the Lowy Institute's latest Strategic Snapshot, Dr Hiroyasu Akutsu explores the strategic dynamics animating the China-Japan maritime relationship, which is becoming dangerously militarised. Against a backdrop of shifting power balances, enhanced military capabilities and lingering territorial disputes, Dr Akutsu recommends for Japan a two-track strategy: confidence building on the one hand, hedging on the other.
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New Caledonia's unrealized legacy
In an article in The Diplomat, Chief of Army Visiting Fellow Nicholas Floyd writes that New Caledonia's role in the South Pacific has been largely ignored. But both strategically and economically it could be a key player.
The article can be read here.
A French version of the paper has also been published by the Centre Français de Recherche sur le Renseignement here.
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Gillard must handle China with care
In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White writes that Australia should consider how far it is willing to go after siding with the United States against China at the AUSMIN talks.
Australian Financial Review, 17 November 2010, p. 71
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Advance Column: Think tanks look to Asia
In his column on global think tanks in the November 2010 issue of the journal American Review, Lowy Institute Program Director Rory Medcalf looks at the challenges for foreign policy research in China and India as well as the evolving policy debate on Afghanistan. This survey covers recent work by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Tsinghua University, the International Institute for Strategic Studies and India's National Maritime Foundation.
The column is available here.
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Beijing workshop: extended deterrence
On 18 October 2010, the Lowy Institute held its first event in China. A team of Australian researchers led by the Institute’s international security program director, Rory Medcalf, joined colleagues from China, Japan and South Korea in a workshop on the future of extended deterrence and strategic stability in the Asia-Pacific, in the context of changing regional power balances and efforts towards nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. It was co-hosted with the Institute for International Studies at Tsinghua University and the Center for the Promotion of Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (Japan Institute of International Affairs). This Beijing event was supported by the Nuclear Security Project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and will inform research for a multi-authored book to be released next year.
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Inflict enough pain and Taliban will negotiate
In an opinion piece in The Age, James Brown, a military associate in the Lowy Institute's International Security program, argues that the West must be patient, that the new strategy in Afghanistan has barely had time to start working.
The Age, 19 October 2010, p. 13
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Nuclear weapons and American strategy in the age of Obama
In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Visiting Fellow Hugh White critically examines the 2010 US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). Professor White argues that – contrary to what has been widely assumed – the NPR does not significantly reduce the role of nuclear weapons in America’s strategic posture. In particular, it does not properly address the central question of how to prevent nuclear strategic issues destabilising the US-China relationship. This publication was produced under the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the Nuclear Security Project (www.nuclearsecurityproject.org).
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Interview: James Brown
In an interview with Geraldine Doogue on Radio National’s Saturday Extra program, James Brown explains who are the different insurgent groups that make up the Taliban. He also discussed their motivations for fighting and the prospects for reconciliation in Afghanistan.
The interview is available at: http://www.abc.net.au/rn/saturdayextra/stories/2010/3052180.htm#transcript
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1940: Free French coup de force in Noumea [English version]
In this contribution to the 2010 commemorative anthology commissioned by the Australian Consulate-General to Nouméa, Army Visiting Fellow Nick Floyd provides the historical military and strategic context to the eventful start of diplomatic relations between New Caledonia and Australia.
Throughout its history, New Caledonia's position of strategic overwatch of the South Pacific has been important to Australia. On the eve of the 70th anniversary of our shared diplomatic relations, it is timely to consider the continuing strategic relevance of this near neighbour to Australia.
Australia-New Caledonia: Seventy Years of Bilateral Relations, 2010, pp 32-35.
A French version is available here.
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Afghanistan: OK to be partisan
In an opinion piece for Crikey, James Brown argues that bipartisanship on defence issues has resulted in laziness in Australian military policy. He suggests better defence policy will result from politicians who are more partisan and better informed on defence issues.
Crikey, 18 October 2010
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Little power, big choices: Australia's strategic future
In the Lowy Institute's fourth Strategic Snapshot, Research Associate and Asia Security Project Coordinator Raoul Heinrichs explores the strategic challenges confronting Australia as shifting power balances in Asia produce new calculations among the region's major powers.
Building on Power and Choice, the Lowy Institute's major report on Asian Security Futures, Mr Heinrichs argues that while US primacy or a 'concert of Asia' are the most preferable futures for Australia, a competitive balance of power is the most likely. Between new risks for Canberra of being dragged into competition and old fears of being left to fend for itself, Mr Heinrichs recommends a major build-up of Australia's independent strategic weight, and reduced reliance on the United States, as a hedge against the most serious dangers arising from Asia's transition.
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Time to put policy meat on white paper's bones
In an opinion piece in The Australian's Defence Special Report, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White suggests a new process to develop a decent defence policy.
The Australian, Defence Special Report, 23 October 2010, p. 2
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Extended deterrence: Australian and Japanese perspectives
On 21 September, the Lowy Institute hosted a workshop to discuss the state of extended deterrence in the Asia Pacific now and in the future, in collaboration with the Japan Institute of International Affairs. In the context of both President Obama’s Prague agenda for a nuclear weapon free world and the growth of Chinese power, the workshop participants discussed the role of nuclear weapons in the defence of US allies in the region and the effect of US extended nuclear deterrence upon the strategic posture of China and other regional players.
The participants explored the future of extended deterrence, including the prospects for a reduced role for nuclear weapons and an increased role for conventional capabilities such as missile defence. The workshop was supported by the Lowy Institute’s partnership with Nuclear Security Project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and the ARC’s linkage project on Australia’s Nuclear Choices.
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Terror games: understanding risk and security in New Delhi
In this Lowy Institute Perspective, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf examines the risks and background of possible terrorism at the October 2010 Commonwealth Games in New Delhi.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Hugh White presentation
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 15 September, Professor Hugh White spoke about Australia's choices as China grows. Hugh White is a Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy and Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University.
His presentation can be heard here:
Between Beijing and Washington - MP3 (21MB)
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Advance column
In his column in the new journal American Review, Lowy Institute Program Director for International Security Rory Medcalf surveys new research on strategic issues in US and other global think tanks. In the May-October 2010 issue, he looks at recent work by the Center for a New American Security, the Project 2049 Institute, Brookings’ Managing Global Insecurity Project, the MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Initiative, and the Stockholm Peace Research Institute.
The article can be read here.
American Review, May-October 2010
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Decisions and destinies: Asian security in 2010
In the Lowy Institute’s third Asia security 'Strategic Snapshot', Program Director for International Security Rory Medcalf assesses how recent security choices in Asia – especially at sea – could have long-term consequences for peace or conflict. Looking at recent events in light of Power and Choice, the Lowy Institute’s flagship report on alternative Asian security futures, Mr Medcalf warns that a more assertive Chinese maritime posture is not being matched with the kind of dialogue and practical confidence-building measures needed to minimise risks of confrontation. At the same time, powerful states remain unlikely to invest regional institutions – even an expanded East Asia Summit and a new defence ministers’ meeting – with real scope to manage the strategic challenges of the South China Sea or the Korean Peninsula. Across the Indo-Pacific, the use and threat of force in major-power relations has not gone away.
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Asia's maritime security is all at sea
In an opinion piece in The Australian, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf warns that China and its neighbours lack even the basic maritime rules that kept the Cold War cool. This article is based on the recent Strategic Snapshot Decisions and Destinies: Asian Security in 2010, published under the Lowy Institute’s MacArthur Foundation Asian Security Project.
The Australian, 15 September 2010, p. 10
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Rory Medcalf interview
In this interview on ABC Radio’s PM current affairs program, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf looks at maritime tensions between China and Japan, following a collision in contested waters in early September 2010. He discusses the need to reduce risks of escalation in the wider context of changing power balances explored in the Lowy Institute’s MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project.
The interview is available at:
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2010/s3007510.htm
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America's grand strategy in Asia: what would Mahan do?
In the Lowy Institute’s latest Asia security ‘Strategic Snapshot’, distinguished American Asia scholar and former senior White House official Dr Michael J. Green examines Asia’s changing power dynamics and asks what grand strategy 19th century geo-strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan, the father of US sea-power, would advocate for the United States if he were alive today. Responding to Power and Choice, the Lowy Institute’s flagship report on alternative Asian security futures, Dr Green makes a powerful case for a modern US Asia strategy drawing on Mahan’s insights and based on a strong forward maritime presence, strengthened cooperation with allies, a reaffirmed American commitment to free trade, and promotion of the values the United States shares with its key Asian partners.
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India must master the great game
India needs to stay cool in the face of diplomatic and security provocations by China, argues International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf in this opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal. Through development, deterrence and diplomacy New Delhi can be prepared for looming rivalry.
The Wall Street Journal Asia, 3 September 2010, p. 9
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Cheonan choices
The Lowy Institute’s MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project is releasing a new publication series, ‘Strategic Snapshots’. The first Snapshot, Cheonan Choices, by Andrew Shearer and Malcolm Cook, highlights the strategic implications of North Korea’s sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan, including strengthened security ties between South Korea, Japan and the United States, and concerns about China’s limited response to its ally’s reckless and provocative actions.
It advocates a range of policy responses, including: enhanced Australia-South Korea intelligence sharing and annual strategic discussions between Australian and South Korean foreign and defence ministers; bringing Japan and Australia into future anti-submarine exercises involving South Korea and the United States and establishing four-party security discussions; and an Australia-South Korea led exercise in support of the international Proliferation Security Initiative.
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Coral Sea neighbours - then and now
In this latest article on Pacific strategic issues, Army Visiting Fellow Nick Floyd argues that on the eve of the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Australia and New Caledonia, it is timely to consider the continuing strategic relevance of this near neighbour to Australia.
The article demonstrates New Caledonia's array of enduring discontinuities: throughout its history, New Caledonia's strategic overwatch of the South Pacific's approaches has contrasted with its isolation, while the archipelago's richness and diversity of resources are challenged by both its accessibility and vulnerability.
Australian Defence Force Journal, Issue 182, 2010, pp 34-43
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And then there's their battle back home
James Brown's opinion piece in the Sydney Morning Herald addresses the Australian public's engagement with the Afghanistan issue and the role of our defence forces there.
Sydney Morning Herald, 28 July 2010, p 11
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How do we know when we are at war?
In this Lowy Institute perspective, former Australian Chief of Army Peter Leahy argues that Australia needs greater civilian engagement if it is to have a chance of prevailing in counter-insurgency warfare. His recommendations include parliamentary ratification of military deployments and a reset of military-media relations, including the appointment of an ombudsman to improve responsible media access to operational information.
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Analysing 'A Careful War'
 'A Careful War’ was a compelling two-part documentary program which appeared on the ABC’s Four Corners earlier this month. Distinguished reporter Chris Masters undertook a ground-level exploration of one corner of the Afghanistan conflict. Focusing on the work of an Australian mentoring company, the program delivered important and moving perspectives on this complex battlefront from the soldiers who are fighting and the people they are fighting for.
On 30 July Chris Masters delivered a public lecture on the documentary.
The lecture can be heard here:
Analysing 'A Careful War' - MP3 (21MB)
Or viewed by clicking on the image above.
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Distinguished Speaker Series - Dr Charles Ferguson presentation
On 21 June 2010, the Lowy Institute held a lecture by the President of the Federation of American Scientists, Dr Charles Ferguson, as part of its Distinguished Speaker Series. Dr Ferguson examined the links between civil nuclear energy and nuclear weapons proliferation. In light of the growing number of states which have signed peaceful nuclear energy cooperation deals, the lecture focused on the increasing risks of an attack upon, or sabotage of, civil nuclear facilities. Dr Ferguson was in Australia as a guest of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and this event was supported by the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the Nuclear Security Project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative.
His presentation can be heard here:
Potential security consequences of the nuclear energy revival - MP3 (20MB)
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Distinguished Speaker Series - Senator John Faulkner presentation
On Friday 16 July, Australia's Defence Minister, Senator John Faulkner, spoke at the Lowy Institute to discuss Australia's commitment and contribution to the ISAF effort in Afghanistan, in the context of Australian strategic objectives, operational developments and the challenge of capacity building.
His presentation can be heard here:
Afghanistan - Australia's commitment - MP3 (23MB)
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Power and choice: Asian security futures
The situation in North Korea emphasises the fragility of Asia’s security order and the strains the region’s changing power distribution are placing on it. A major 2010 Lowy Institute Asia Security Project report, 'Power and Choice: Asian Security Futures', analyses the likely security futures for Asia and Australia and recommends steps countries should take to ensure growing regional competition does not lead to conflict. This report was made possible by the generous support for the Project by the MacArthur Foundation.
A copy of the report, launched by Dennis Richardson, AO, the Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade on 1 June 2010, can be downloaded here.
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Flying the flag, not the coop
In an opinion piece in the Canberra Times, Research Associate Raoul Heinrichs argues that Australia can achieve its alliance management objectives in Afghanistan without risking Australian lives, and that Australian forces should be subject to more restrictive limits on the kinds of tasks they perform.
Canberra Times, 18 July 2010, p. 9
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India ahoy
In this opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal (Asia), International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that India needs to sustain its smart naval diplomacy to manage tensions as China’s role increases in the Indian Ocean.
Wall Street Journal, 29 April 2010
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India's nuclear example
In this opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal (Asia), International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf explains why the India-Pakistan nuclear relationship is not strictly an arms race, and why it was right for President Obama to exclude this issue from the agenda of the recent Nuclear Security Summit.
Wall Street Journal, 15 April 2010
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Asian security futures report
On Tuesday 1 June Mr Dennis Richardson AO, Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, launched a major new Lowy Institute report - Power and Choice: Asian security futures - at the National Portrait Gallery in Canberra. Jointly written by the Lowy Institute's MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Project team, the report explores a number of future scenarios that could arise from Asia's emerging political and strategic dynamics.
The publication can be downloaded at: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=1306
Pictured: Mr Dennis Richardson AO
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Rudd is needed at nuclear summit
In this opinion piece in The Sydney Morning Herald, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf examines President Obama's major revision of US nuclear weapons posture and argues that Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd should support Obama's efforts by attending a nuclear security summit being held in Washington.
Sydney Morning Herald, 8 April 2010, p. 13
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Nuclear weapons in Asia: why we should worry
 In the Lowy Institute's first Food for Thought lecture in Melbourne, on 23 March, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf explored how the dangers of nuclear-armed confrontation between states might be minimised in the Asian century. He focused on relations among the United States, China, India and Pakistan, considered Japan’s difficult position, and touched upon whether a middle power like Australia could make a difference.
The presentation can be heard here:
Nuclear weapons in Asia: why we should worry - MP3 (20MB)
A video of the presentation can be watched by clicking on the photo above.
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Conference Report: Asia’s Nuclear Future
In February 2010 the Lowy Institute co-hosted a major international workshop on Asia’s Nuclear Future with the US-based Non-Proliferation Policy Education Centre. Leading experts and security practitioners from the United States, China, Japan, India, Pakistan and Australia had a candid exchange of views about the challenges in restraining nuclear weapons and preventing nuclear-armed conflict in the Asian century.
This conference report outlines some of the key issues discussed, and touches upon some of the practical policy recommendations presented.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Three views from Paris
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 17 March, the Lowy Institute was pleased to present a panel of three of France’s leading security thinkers, Camille Grand, François Heisbourg and Bruno Tertrais, each offering an individual view on the major strategic challenges facing France today.
Camille Grand is director of the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS), François Heisbourg is Chairman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), and Bruno Tertrais is senior research fellow at FRS. The discussion was moderated by the Lowy Institute’s Program Director for International Security, Rory Medcalf.
The Lowy Institute acknowledges the support of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade in bringing the three visitors to Australia.
The panellists' presentations can be heard here:
French strategic perspectives - MP3 (21MB)
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PM should talk to Paul Keating about Indonesia
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that a stronger Jakarta can either help us or threaten us.
The Australian, 8 March 2010, p. 14
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Wednesday Lowy Lunch - Panellists' presentations
At Lunch at Lowy on 16 February an exceptional panel of visiting international experts and policy practitioners from India, Pakistan, China and the USA discussed the risks of nuclear competition between the nuclear armed states in South West Asia and China. The panellists are in Sydney for a workshop on Asia's nuclear future, co-hosted by the Institute and the US-based Non-proliferation Policy Education Center. We thank NPEC for bringing the panellists to Australia.
Photo: Professor Gareth Evans spoke at the workshop dinner on the Report of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament, 'Eliminating nuclear threats: a practical agenda for global policymakers', which he co-authored with Yoriko Kawaguchi.
Their presentations can be heard here:
Can nuclear competition be avoided? - MP3 (21MB)
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Reflections on the water’s rim: A third generation amphibious culture?
In this recent RSIS Commentaries publication, Chief of Army Visiting Fellow Lieutenant Colonel Nicholas Floyd reveals how Australia’s Defence Force is embarking on something of a ‘third generation’ of amphibious culture in its military strategic thought, embracing both capabilities of the new ADF amphibious force, and the future security environment in which they will operate.
RSIS Commentary, 5 March 2010, 3 pp
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Resilience the key to fighting terrorism
In an opinion piece in The Sydney Morning Herald, Sam Roggeveen, editor of the Lowy Institute blog, The Interpreter, argues that the government hasn't really embraced 'resilience' in its new counter-terrorism strategy.
Sydney Morning Herald, 24 February 2010, p. 11
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Awarding of the 2009 Michael and Deborah Thawley scholarship
The Lowy Institute is pleased to announce the awarding of the 2009 Michael and Deborah Thawley Scholarship in international security. Kate Boswood will join the Institute's International Security Program as an intern early next year. The scholarship will also cover her research at a leading US think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in Washington in the first half of 2010. Ms Boswood is a junior official in the Australian Department of Defence. The scholarship is aimed at developing promising young policy thinkers with an awareness of Australia’s global interests and role. Ms Boswood’s research project during the internships with Lowy and CSIS will focus on the need for Australia to do more to minimise the security threats emerging within Pakistan.
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Toward a nuclear weapons free world: a Chinese perspective
In this publication, leading Chinese security scholar Shen Dingli offers a point of view on Beijing’s constraints and objectives as it decides how to engage with the new global push for nuclear disarmament, including such initiatives as President Obama’s nuclear-weapon-free-world campaign and the Australian-Japanese International Commission for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, due to report at the end of 2009.
The Lowy Institute has issued this perspective to expand the range of views published under its partnership with the Nuclear Security Project (www.nuclearsecurityproject.org).
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The vital place of nuclear weapons in 21st century US national security strategy
Kevin Rudd launched the report of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament in Tokyo on 15 December. In this publication Franklin C. Miller, a former senior US government official with extensive involvement in nuclear policy making over five Administrations, makes the case for the United States maintaining a strong, safe and credible nuclear deterrent in the 21st century.
The Lowy Institute is pleased to issue this Perspective as one of a series of views on nuclear policy.
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Eliminating nuclear threats
 Following the launch by Prime Ministers Rudd and Hatoyama of the report of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (ICNND) 'Eliminating Nuclear Threats: A Practical Agenda for Global Policymakers', the Lowy Institute convened an expert panel to assess the report and its impact on global disarmament and non-proliferation.
The moderator was Dr Michael Wesley and the panellists were Martine Letts, Rory Medcalf, and Dr Rod Lyon.
The members of the expert panel can be heard here:
Eliminating nuclear threats - MP3 (22MB)
A video of the presentation can be watched by clicking the photo above.
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U.S. disarmament is dangerous for Asia
In an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal, Franklin Miller and Andrew Shearer argue that the US nuclear deterrent remains the cornerstone of stability in Asia and caution regional governments against embracing some of the key recommendations of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament.
Wall Street Journal, 17 December 2009
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Problems to partnership: a plan for Australia-India strategic ties
In this Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Rory Medcalf, Program Director International Security, argues that Australia and India must not squander the chance to build a strategic partnership. Recent bilateral difficulties, such as over student welfare, have at least focused high-level attention on the relationship. A security declaration would be a positive step, but would need to be more than rhetoric, and include practical ideas for defence, intelligence and diplomatic cooperation to meet common challenges. Meanwhile the uranium export question has not gone away.
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Of men v machines: who knows what lurks in the hearts of man?
Technological advancement has always tested societal paradigms - even in warfare. Even so, the pace and pervasiveness of technological innovation in the 21st century seem to challenge the very basis of human interaction in conflict. In this article in the Australian Defence Force Journal, Nick Floyd, Chief of Army Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute enters the human dimension of modern warfare through the portal of its past, and considers the prospects for a future, non-human manifestation of conflict.
Australian Defence Force Journal, Issue 180, 2009 pp 78-83
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Confronting the hydra: big problems with small wars
Australia’s current role in Afghanistan is the latest experience in a long history of involvement in counterinsurgency conflicts or ‘small wars’. Such commitments may begin as wars of choice, but history suggests they can turn into wars of necessity, and their costs and political impact can be large. In this Lowy Institute Paper, Mark O’Neill charts the enduring nature of Australia’s problems with such wars. He concludes that, as a democratic middle power that chooses to wage counterinsurgency conflicts, Australia needs improved strategic policy approaches and capabilities to overcome a complex and many-headed threat.
To order a hard copy of this publication click here.
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The stellar status symbol
In the latest issue of China Security, Research Associate Fiona Cunningham argues that Chinese behaviour needs to be viewed in light of its ambition to become a great power. ‘The Stellar Status Symbol: True Motives for China’s Manned Space Program’ examines China’s first manned space mission in 2003 as a leap forward in China’s journey toward great power status, copying the activities of the United States and Soviet Union during the Cold War in order to improve its current international standing. The paper suggests that certain state capabilities are great power ‘status symbols’ and similar status motivations may be behind big-ticket military capabilities that are usually read as signs of Chinese threatening intent.
The article is at: http://www.chinasecurity.us/pdfs/FionaCunningham.pdf
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Brigadier Phil Winter presentation
In Afghanistan, Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) are now the number one killer of coalition forces, and the 2009 campaigning season is seeing a record number of IED attacks. At this week's Wednesday Lowy Lunch, the Commander of Australia’s Counter-IED Task Force, Brigadier Phil Winter, described how Australia and its partners in Afghanistan are dealing with the lethal harvest of what Afghans are now calling the 'evil flowers'. Brigadier Winter's PM interview on the topic is at: http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2009/s2740062.htm.
His PowerPoint presentation can be downloaded here:
Stemming the 'evil flowers' - PPT (45MB)
His presentation can be heard here:
Stemming the 'evil flowers' - MP3 (19MB)
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Tightening an obvious tie
In this opinion piece in the Indian Express newspaper, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues why India would benefit from recognising the value of prioritising a strategic partnership with Australia, in the week that Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd visits India.
Indian Express, 11 November 2009
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Lowy Institute Panel: Can Obama's disarmament agenda work?
 On 29 September, the Lowy Institute convened an expert panel to examine the implications of President Obama's push to reduce nuclear dangers, as well as to debate broader questions about nuclear disarmament.
Moderated by Executive Director Dr Michael Wesley, the panel also included Deputy Director Martine Letts, Intl. Security Program Director Rory Medcalf, and the Griffith Asia Institute Director-designate Dr Andrew O'Neil.
The event also marked the launch of the Nuclear Policy Centre web page which consolidates the Institute's expanding range of publications and activities on nuclear issues.
This panel discussion was supported by the Institute's partnership with the Nuclear Security Project (www.nuclearsecurityproject.org).
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Wicked weapons: North Asia's nuclear tangle
The United States faces major challenges in engaging China, Japan and the Korean Peninsula in its quest for nuclear disarmament. In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf explores the ‘wicked’ nature of the region’s nuclear insecurity: how fixing one part of the problem risks aggravating others. He recommends ways forward, involving mutual and coordinated concessions among the United States, Japan and China, and taking account of the region’s strategic realities.
This publication is supported by the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the Nuclear Security Project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative: www.nuclearsecurityproject.org. This project builds on the 2007 Wall Street Journal article 'A World Free of Nuclear Weapons' by George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger and Sam Nunn.
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Twenty-first century ANZACS
In this article in the Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, Nick Floyd, Chief of Army Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute, and Peter Greener, Senior Fellow at the New Zealand Defence Force Command & Staff College, review the recent announcements by the New Zealand and Australian Governments on a prospective trans-Tasman force, and consider how current arrangements, politics and the challenges of the coming century will have an impact on the purpose, employment and shape of such a force.
Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, Vol. 35(8) October 2009, pp 31-32: http://www.asiapacificdefencereporter.com/articles/33/Australia-and-New-Zealand-Twenty-First-Century-ANZACS
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Wicked weapons: Rory Medcalf interview
In the lead up to President Obama’s historic UN nuclear summit, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf was interviewed on ABC Radio current affairs program PM about his Lowy Institute Analysis, 'Wicked Weapons: North Asia’s Nuclear Tangle'.
The interview is available at: http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2009/s2692351.htm
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Unconventional partners: Australia-India cooperation in reducing nuclear dangers
In this Policy Brief, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf and his Indian co-author Amandeep Gill argue that an innovative partnership between Australia and India would help erode the entrenched blocs that impede progress on nuclear disarmament. Their recommendations include: a leaders’ statement; a specialised bilateral dialogue; and practical cooperation on non-proliferation export controls, with Australia promoting Indian involvement in the so-called Australia Group to raise comfort levels between New Delhi and other such arrangements. This publication was produced under the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the Nuclear Security project (www.nuclearsecurityproject.org).
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Commander US Pacific Command speaks at Lowy Institute
On 1 September 2009, the commander of US Pacific Command, Admiral Timothy Keating, addressed a high-level dinner gathering at the Lowy Institute. He spoke candidly about the role of PACOM in pursuing security and stability in the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. He also ranged across some of the key challenges and opportunities in regional security - including relating to China, India, Japan and the Korean Peninsula - and the prospects for the Australia-US alliance. Some of his key messages were explored further in an interview on the Lowy Institute’s blog, The Interpreter.
Admiral Keating’s interview on The Interpreter can be heard here:
http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2009/09/02/Interview-ADM-Timothy-Keating.aspx
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Effective 'future Anzac force' needs careful consideration
Nick Floyd, Lowy Institute Chief of Army Visiting Fellow, and Peter Greener, Senior Fellow at the New Zealand Defence Force Command & Staff College, consider in the Canberra Times the merits of a future ANZAC force to meet shared national security challenges, and how both Governments must consider the bounds of its employability.
Canberra Times, 29 September 2009, p. 11
This article also appeared in the Dominion Post of 24 September 2009.
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Australia's security challenges: lessons for others?
Chief of Army Visiting Fellow Nicholas Floyd published an article in Issue 94/2009 of RSIS Commentaries, a publication of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore, on how lessons from Australian Defence Force experiences can be adapted and exported to other security stakeholders.
RSIS Commentaries 94/2009, 18 September 2009
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - William Paterson presentation
At the Wednesday Lowy Lunch on 16 September, Australia’s Ambassador for Counter-Terrorism, William Paterson PSM, provided an overview of the terrorist threat in Southeast Asia against the background of terrorism trends worldwide.
His presentation can be heard here:
Terrorism in Southeast Asia - MP3 (19MB)
A transcript is available.
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A tighter net: strengthening the Proliferation Security Initiative
In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, entitled 'A Tighter Net: Strengthening the Proliferation Security Initiative', non-proliferation scholar Emma Belcher urges practical steps for WMD non-proliferation at sea.
Australia and other countries should redouble their efforts to fix serious gaps in an international arrangement to stop maritime shipments of materials destined for weapons of mass destruction programs, according to the Brief. It argues that heightened concerns over North Korea provide an opportunity to bolster the Proliferation Security Initiative, a 95-country arrangement to promote interception of transfers of cargoes related to weapons of mass destruction.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Rory Medcalf presentation
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 24 June, Rory Medcalf, Program Director International Security, drew upon recent consultations in the region to warn that efforts to reduce global nuclear dangers will founder if they do not account for the rising strategic concerns of North Asian powers, especially China and Japan.
Mr Medcalf’s research for this presentation was supported by the Lowy Institute’s partnership with the Nuclear Security Project (www.nuclearsecurityproject.org).
His presentation can be heard here:
Wicked weapons - MP3 (19MB)
Video of this presentation is also available.
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Lowy Institute launches MacArthur Foundation Asian Security Project
The Lowy Institute has launched a major new three-year project to explore the limits of security cooperation in Asia and promote measures to prevent the region's growing strategic rivalries from deepening and escalating into war. The project is supported by a generous grant from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.
For more information please see the following media release.
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Defence can play broader role in national security
In an opinion piece in the Canberra Times, Chief of Army Visiting Fellow Nick Floyd explains the ideas in his recent Lowy Institute Analysis on Australian national security.
Canberra Times, 19 August 2009, p. 11
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How Defence can contribute to Australia's national security strategy
As the Federal Government prepares to develop the successor document to its inaugural 2008 National Security Statement, this new Lowy Institute Analysis considers what needs to be done to improve the oft-quoted whole-of-government approach to national security, and where Government can draw inspiration for crafting that approach.
Against the backdrop provided by the National Security Statement, the ADF mission must be recognised as supporting a broader spectrum of operations and activities and an ability to transition rapidly between them.
The paper considers these implications, and how Defence can actively support more effective interactions across the national security effort, drawing on Defence and the ADF’s resident experience in interoperability and deliberate planning.
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Distinguished Speaker Series - Professor Alan Dupont presentation
Is the Rudd Government’s new Defence White Paper more of the same or a significant departure from the previous strategic orthodoxy? More importantly, is it affordable, and will future governments commit to the level of spending necessary to ensure that the White Paper’s ambitious goals for the Australian Defence Force are realised? What about the strategic judgements underpinning the decisions on spending and force structure? Is concern about China’s burgeoning military power real, or merely Defence ‘spin’ designed to justify expensive acquisitions?
These questions were addressed by Professor Alan Dupont in his analysis of what the Rudd Government claims is the most comprehensive and far-reaching reform of defence planning ever attempted in Australia.
The presentation can be heard here:
2009 Defence White Paper - MP3 (22MB)
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The role of the civil nuclear industry in preventing proliferation
Lowy Institute Deputy Director Martine Letts and Research Associate Fiona Cunningham prepared a paper for the Second Meeting of the International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament in Washington, DC, 13-15 February 2009, entitled 'The role of the civil nuclear industry in preventing proliferation and in managing the second nuclear age'.
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Hard to fight the nukes of hazard
In an opinion piece in The Sydney Morning Herald, Sam Roggeveen, editor of the Lowy Institute's blog, The Interpreter, argues that nuclear weapons give North Korea exactly what it wants - security for the regime and the country. Nothing the US can offer will do that job better than nuclear weapons.
Sydney Morning Herald, 27 May 2009, p. 11
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India's security challenges: Pakistan, Afghanistan and the neighbourhood
In the 2009 Australia-India Strategic Lecture, delivered at the Lowy Institute on 11 May, Ambassador Chinmaya Gharekhan examined India’s dangerous neighbourhood, and in particular the deep security challenges posed by the situations in Pakistan and Afghanistan. He presented a sobering picture of the prospects for these countries, and the implications for India and other countries threatened by jihadist terrorism.
Ambassador Gharekhan's lecture can be downloaded here:
India's security challenges - PDF (167KB)
His speech can be heard here:
India's security challenges - MP3 (20MB)
Video of this presentation is also available.
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Indian election win good for Australia: Rory Medcalf interview
International security program director Rory Medcalf's assessment of the importance of the Indian election result was drawn upon extensively in the Australian Financial Review. Mr Medcalf, who served as a diplomat in New Delhi and coordinates the Australia-India Roundtable, argued that the convincing win by Congress is the best chance yet to strengthen Australia-India strategic ties in addressing common challenges such as Pakistan, Afghanistan and the implications of the rise of China.
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Challenges afloat in white paper
In an article in a Special Report on Defence in the Weekend Australian, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White examines the plans for investment in expansion in Australia's surface navy.
The Weekend Australian, 23-24 May 2008, p. Special Report - Defence, p. 5
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Michael Smith AO presentation
In the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 13 May, Michael G. Smith AO, Executive Director of the Asia Pacific Civil-Military Centre of Excellence, joined us to discuss the way ahead for the Centre, which was set up in 2008 by the Rudd Government to develop 'national civil-military capabilities to prevent, prepare for and respond more effectively to conflicts and disasters overseas'. The presentation covered the key people and organisations the Centre deals with and particularly how the Centre will seek to work with international partners and relevant non-government organisations, and some of the challenges faced in these interactions.
His PowerPoint presentation can be downloaded here:
Smart Power - PPT (3MB)
His presentation can be heard here:
Smart Power - MP3 (20MB)
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A focused force: Australia's defence priorities in the Asian Century
In this new Lowy Institute Paper, Visiting Fellow Hugh White calls for Australia to abandon the 'Balanced Force' concept and refocus its military on managing strategic risks related to the rise of China. Professor White argues that Chinese power will challenge US primacy, undercutting the basic assumptions of Australian defence policy. He poses questions about the risks Australia faces over coming decades, how armed force can help manage those risks, whether current forces are up to the job, and whether the country can afford forces that are. This paper, with its controversial force-structure recommendations, is a major contribution to the Australian security debate on the eve of the 2009 Defence White Paper.
Executive Summary
To order a hard copy of this publication click here.
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Australia bulks up
In an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal Asia, Lowy Institute Senior Research Fellow Andrew Shearer comments on the Rudd government's recent Defence White Paper and the Obama administration's cuts to the US defence budget. While welcoming plans for a bigger and more capable ADF he expresses concern about whether they will be adequately funded. He argues that the US government should reconsider its cuts to missile defence programs and to the F-22 Stealth Fighter, to avoid increasing the strategic anxiety of American allies in Asia.
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Our China question: friend or foe?
In this opinion piece in the Sydney Morning Herald, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf considers how Australia's imminent Defence White Paper might be received in Beijing. He notes that Australia is broadly right to strengthen its defences for an uncertain future, but suggests some steps for Canberra to take in dealing with potential diplomatic fallout in China. A version of this article also appeared in the Melbourne Age.
The Sydney Morning Herald, 29 April 2009, p. 15
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy: Peter Singer presentation
The world has begun to see a massive shift in military technology that could make the stuff of science fiction real, with profound effects on the battlefield and in the politics of war. Some 44 countries including Australia are at work on military robotics. Pilots sitting just outside Las Vegas are remotely killing militants in Afghanistan. Scientists are debating just how smart and how lethal to make their prototypes. Science fiction authors are consulting for the Pentagon on the next generation. On 6 May, Peter Singer, Director of the 21st Century Initiative at the Brookings Institution, joined the Lowy Institute by videolink from Washington to present the fascinating findings of his new book Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century.
A summary of Dr Singer’s presentation can be heard at:
http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2009/05/The-10-minute-Lowy-Lunch-Robots-at-war.aspx
For more on Dr Singer's research: www.pwsinger.com
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The long rise of China in Australian defence strategy
Media reports and Hugh White's recent Lowy Institute Paper have ignited debate about the extent to which China's rapid military modernisation should shape the government's long-awaited Defence White Paper.
In this Perspective, former Secretary of Defence Ric Smith charts the place of China in Australian defence strategy over 50 years and highlights that a preoccupation with China's military capabilities and intentions is far from new for Australia's defence planners.
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Muddled report leaves gaps in our defence
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that the Defence White Paper raises important questions but is short on strategy.
The Australian, 4 May 2009, p. 8
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Hugh White presentation
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 15 April, Visiting Fellow Hugh White spoke at the launch of his new Lowy Institute Paper, 'A Focused Force: Australia's defence priorities in the Asian century', in which he argues for Australia to abandon the 'Balanced Force' concept and refocus its defence efforts on managing our most important future strategic risks.
His presentation can be heard here:
A Focused Force - MP3 (22MB)
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Winds of change demand hard debate
In this opinion piece in the Australian Financial Review on 28 April 2009, Lowy Institute visiting fellow Hugh White discusses China's economic rise and its implications for Australian defence policy.
Australian Financial Review, 28 April 2009, p. 63
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Historic images shaping views on Defence spending
Hugh White discusses Australia's defence policy in the context of a new ANU poll on defence issues in this article in the Canberra Times.
The Canberra Times, 29 April 2009, p. 11
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Bracing for the Asian century
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that Australia's defence needs must be assessed in the light of the shifting global balance of power and particularly China's ascendancy.
This is a summary of a forthcoming Lowy Institute Paper, A Focused Force: Australia's Defence Priorities in the Asian Century, by Hugh White, to be published on Wednesday.
The Australian, 11 April 2009, p. 21
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Nuclear disarmament: the need for a new theory
In this Lowy Institute Perspective, Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman examines what a realistic assessment of the developing state of the international system might mean for current efforts to reduce nuclear dangers and pursue the abolition of nuclear weapons. This publication is based on a lecture Professor Freedman presented at the Lowy Institute in February 2009, under the Lowy Institute's partnership with the Nuclear Security Project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (www.nuclearsecurityproject.org).
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Australian's role in Afghanistan: Rory Medcalf interview
In this interview on the ABC Radio National program Australia Talks, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf discusses Australia's role in Afghanistan, including questions of declining public support, possible troop increases and the need for greater attention to regional diplomacy and training of Afghan forces.
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/australiatalks/stories/2009/2531342.htm
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Australia's strategic analysis capabilities
In this article in the journal Security Challenges, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf examines Australia's strategic analysis capabilities, both within and beyond the formal intelligence community. He presents a case for open-source strategic assessments to be presented in the public domain, along the lines of the US National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2025 report.
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How do you solve a problem like North Korea? Not by force
In an opinion piece in The Age, Sam Roggeveen, editor of The Interpreter, the weblog of the Lowy Institute, argues that sitting down to talk to Pyongyang would be more effective than a show of muscle.
The Age, 27 March 2009, p. 13
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Distinguished Speaker Series - Sir Lawrence Freedman presentation
The global threat from nuclear weapons is growing, yet so too is a new international push for nuclear disarmament. On Wednesday 25 February 2009 at a lecture in the Lowy Institute's Distinguished Speakers Series, Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman examined what realistic assessments of the developing state of the international system might mean for current efforts to reduce nuclear dangers.
This event was held under the Lowy Institute's partnership with the Nuclear Security Project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (www.nuclearsecurityproject.org). This project builds on the 2007 Wall Street Journal article 'A World Free of Nuclear Weapons' by George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger and Sam Nunn.
The presentation, 'Nuclear disarmament: the need for a new theory' can be heard here:
Nuclear disarmament - MP3 (23MB
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International security in 2008: The year in review
In this lecture to the NSW Royal United Services Institute, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf identifies some major events and trends of 2008 - from the Russia-Georgia war to Somali piracy and the global financial crisis – in the light of their long-term implications for global and Australian security interests.
United Service 60(1) March 2009 pp 21-26:
http://www.rusinsw.org.au/Papers/20081125.pdf
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Wednesday Lunch At Lowy - Dr Peter Edwards presentation
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 4 March 2009, historian Peter Edwards placed the current debate in the context of the long history of debates between those who see global alliances as central to Australia's national security and those who emphasise the importance of self-reliance and regional links. By examining the cyclical pattern of strategic debates over more than a century, he suggested a likely framework for the White Paper and the way it will be assessed.
His presentation, 'Australian strategy: An historical perspective on the Defence White Paper' can be heard here:
Australian strategy - MP3 (19MB)
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Lowy Institute partnership with Nuclear Threat Initiative
The Lowy Institute for International Policy has joined the US-based Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) as a partner in research and dialogue to reduce nuclear dangers.
With a grant from the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Lowy Institute will be a partner to NTI's Nuclear Security Project, which builds on the 2007 Wall Street Journal op-ed 'A World Free of Nuclear Weapons' by George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger and Sam Nunn. The Lowy Institute’s work, to be managed by its International Security Program, will involve consultations on nuclear issues with officials, experts and opinion-makers in Australia and key Asian states, public lectures on the challenge of nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, and the publication of original research proposing fresh policy approaches.
Further details of the Lowy-NTI partnership are available in this press release.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Cook, Hayward-Jones and Medcalf presentations
On 4 February, at the first lunch for 2009 in our Wednesday Lunch at Lowy series, three Lowy Institute scholars, Dr Malcolm Cook, Jenny Hayward-Jones and Rory Medcalf, discussed prospects for the Asia Pacific region this year, under the very challenging circumstances of the global financial crisis.
Their presentations can be heard here:
The year ahead for the Asia Pacific - MP3 (21MB)
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Squaring the triangle: an Australian perspective on Asian security minilateralism
In a paper published by the US National Bureau of Asian Research, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf identifies Australia’s criteria for taking part in 'minilateral' cooperative security talks and arrangements in Asia. He applies these criteria to help explain the durability of the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue with Japan and the United States, as well as the short-lived experiment in a quadrilateral dialogue involving India.
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Obama legacy must rewrite the terms of success
In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Sam Roggeveen, editor of the Lowy Institute blog, The Interpreter, suggests that if the US President can turn political emphasis away from war he will deserve to be honoured.
Australian Financial Review, 21 January 2009, p. 55
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A non-provocative defence posture for Australia
In a new Lowy Institute Perspective, Sam Roggeveen makes the case for a non-provocative defence policy for Australia. We can ameliorate the security dilemma for our neighbours and reduce the likelihood of arms racing by giving up some of our offensive military capabilities.
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Chinese anti-piracy mission
In this opinion piece in the International Herald Tribune, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that the naval deployment to combat Somali piracy is a momentous step in China's rise as a world power. He argues that the United States, India and others should seize this opportunity to build maritime cooperation with China before Beijing forms any habit of unilateral military activism.
International Herald Tribune, 29 December 2008, p. 8
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No more naval gazing as China takes to the sea
In this opinion piece in The Age, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that China's anti-piracy naval deployment off Somalia opens a window of opportunity for Australia and others to test the waters of cooperation with a rising power.
The Age, 5 January 2009, p. 9
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Mumbai terrorist attacks
In this opinion piece in the Australian Financial Review, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf assesses some of the repercussions of the Mumbai terrorist attacks. He judges that military confrontation between India and Pakistan is unlikely, and that India might instead focus on its response on fixing its domestic security capabilities. Mumbai underlines the common cause the West and India have in Afghanistan.
Australian Financial Review, 2 December 2008, p. 55
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Best defence will be non-provocative
In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Sam Roggeveen, editor of the Lowy Institute's blog The Interpreter, argues for the adoption by Australia of a non-provocative defence posture.
Australian Financial Review, 15 December 2008, p. 55
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Asian military modernisation
In this Lowy Institute Perspective, Visiting Fellow Ric Smith examines the patterns in Asian military spending in recent years. He demonstrates that the region's military modernisation does not equate with an arms race. This publication was originally a presentation delivered to the International Institute of Strategic Studies' 50th Anniversary Global Strategic Review in Geneva in early September 2008.
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From losing to winning in Afghanistan
In this opinion piece in The Washington Times, Andrew Shearer and leading US strategic commentator Michael O'Hanlon propose a strategy to reverse the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan.
Washington Times, 3 October 2008
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Nuclear security: what else can Australia do?
Nuclear dangers are growing, yet so is a new 'realistic idealist' campaign for nuclear disarmament. In this Lowy Institute Policy Brief, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf suggests ways Australia might contribute to nuclear security in Asia and globally, in addition to the new international Commission that Canberra is co-sponsoring with Tokyo. These include rebuilding Australia's diplomatic capacity in arms control, urging the new US Administration to reduce American reliance on nuclear weapons, and starting a leaders' dialogue in Asia. A separate Lowy Institute Analysis provides background and further detail.
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Australia: Allied in transition
The Seattle-based National Bureau of Asian Research publishes Strategic Asia, an annual assessment of Asian security issues affecting the United States. The 2008-09 volume in the series, titled Challenges and Choices, is aimed at providing guidance for the next US President on key decisions regarding Asia policy. The book includes a chapter on the Australia-US alliance by International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf.
An executive summary of that chapter is available here.
For more details of the book, please see:
http://www.nbr.org/publications/book.aspx?ID=517
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Distinguished Speaker Series - Lt Gen Ken Gillespie presentation
As part of its Distinguished Speaker Series, the Lowy Institute hosted an address by the Chief of the Australian Army, Lieutenant General K. J. Gillespie AO DSC CSM.
In the last decade the Australian Defence Force has put a great weight of effort into activities such as stabilisation and reconstruction. In his speech, the Chief of Army provided his insights into how reconstruction activities could be better implemented, and how a whole of nation approach is likely to offer a more comprehensive way of achieving desired national objectives in the rebuilding of disrupted societies.
His presentation can be heard here:
Reconstruction and the whole of government approach - MP3 (20MB)
A transcript of his presentation is available for download.
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Commission should promote disarmament and safe civil nuclear management
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Deputy Director Martine Letts argues that the new Non-proliferation and Disarmament Commission should provide a blueprint for the future management of an more complex and dangerous nuclear world.
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Restraining nuclear arms in the Asian century: an agenda for Australia
In this Lowy Institute Analysis, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf provides background and detail for his proposals for renewed Australian activism on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament issues, introduced in the Lowy Institute Policy Brief 'Nuclear security: what else can Australia do?'
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International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament
The Prime Ministers of Australia and Japan formally launched the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (ICNND) today. The Commission will seek to reinvigorate, at a high political level, global progress on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. The Lowy Institute will assist the Commission through its Advisory Board and as one of seven Associated Research Centres from around the world.
For further information, please see the Commission's media release here.
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Asia's arms no cause for alarm
In an opinion piece in The Canberra Times, Sam Roggeveen, editor of the Lowy Institute's blog, The Interpreter, argues that Australia does not need to react to what the Prime Minister wrongly called an 'explosion' in regional defence spending. In fact, a modest cut to our defence budget would help our regional diplomacy.
Canberra Times, 13 September 2008, P. B09
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Time to reckon with nuclear region
In this opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf summarises key messages from his recent policy brief about a nuclear disarmament agenda for Australia. He notes that support for the US-India nuclear deal obliges Canberra to step up its global disarmament diplomacy, and that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has an opportunity to promote dialogue among Asian leaders on nuclear restraint in the region.
Australian Financial Review, 11 September 2008, p. 71
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Bridging the nuclear divide
In this opinion piece in the Indian Express, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that India should appreciate that Australia has come a long way in changing its nuclear policy by supporting the US-India deal in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. The next step should be for India and Australia to work together on arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament initiatives.
Indian Express, 10 September 2008, p. 10
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Terror and Consent: Redrawing the Western Front
In this essay published in the September 2008 Australian Literary Review, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf examines Phillip Bobbitt's landmark book on the struggle against terrorism, entitled Terror and Consent. Bobbitt makes a sound and novel case for Western states to develop a more coherent set of strategies against such seemingly disparate challenges as terrorism, genocide and natural disasters. But, this review argues, his analysis pays too little attention to the effects of the rise of China and India, and the need to enlist these rising powers as partners against terrorism and other transnational threats.
Australian Literary Review, 3 September 2008, p. 9
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Jim Molan presentation
What lessons does the Iraq conflict hold for Australia's new Defence White Paper? In the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 3 September, one of Australia's most experienced and distinguished military men drew upon his experience of running a 21st century urban counter-insurgency to talk about how the nature of the Iraq war should feed into the Defence White Paper process. Major Gen (Retd) Andrew James Molan, AO DSC explored the need for an effective defence force that can offer government as wide a range of security options as resources permit.
His presentation, 'Running the war in Iraq: The nature of modern warfare and the new Defence White Paper' can be heard here:
Running the war in Iraq - MP3 (19MB)
His PowerPoint presentation is available here:
Running the war in Iraq - PPT (8MB)
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Awarding of the 2008 Michael and Deborah Thawley scholarship
The Lowy Institute is pleased to announce the awarding of the 2008 Michael and Deborah Thawley Scholarship in international security. Adam Lockyer will join the Institute's International Security Program as an intern at the end of the year. The scholarship will also cover his research at a leading US think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in Washington in early 2009. Mr Lockyer is currently a PhD candidate in the Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney, where he is completing a dissertation on the role of foreign interventions in civil wars, including case studies on Iraq and Afghanistan. His research project during the internships with Lowy and CSIS will address the strategic uses of Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Afghanistan, including implications for Australian policy.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Dr Adam Dolnik presentation
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 27 August 2008, rising terrorism specialist Dr Adam Dolnik looked at the successes and failures of the field of terrorism studies, and offered some explanations about why people become terrorists.
His presentation, 'What makes a terrorist?' can be heard here:
What makes a terrorist? - MP3 (19MB)
His PowerPoint presentation can be downloaded here:
What makes a terrorist? - PPT (2MB)
A Slow TV Video is at http://www.themonthly.com.au/tm/node/1362
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Back to the future
Since 1991 there has been a proliferation of new theories regarding insurgency and counterinsurgency. In this article, entitled 'Back to the future: the enduring characteristics of insurgency and counterinsurgency', Mark O’Neill offers the view that many of these have little utility in understanding the current situation. It is the enduring characteristics of insurgency and counterinsurgency that assist in understanding these situations.
Australian Army Journal, Vol V, No. 2, Winter 2008, Special edition: Counterinsurgency
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Distinguished Speaker Series - Mr Nick Warner presentation
As part of its Distinguished Speaker Series, the Lowy Institute for International Policy was pleased to host an address by Mr Nick Warner, Secretary of Defence. The title of Mr Warner's address was '256,800 Paper Towels: Mending Defence's Broken Backbone'.
His presentation can be heard here:
Mending Defence's Broken Backbone - MP3 (20MB)
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Rahul Roy-Chaudhury presentation
On 4 June at the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, leading Indian strategic analyst Rahul Roy-Chaudhury looked at India's changing strategic outlook, including in its dealings with Australia and the Asia-Pacific in a presentation entitled 'Security challenges for a rising India: Responsibilities and liabilities'.
His presentation can be heard here:
Security challenges for a rising India - MP3 (17MB)
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Why the Gulf matters:
crafting an Australian security policy for the Gulf
The imminent withdrawal of Australian combat forces from Iraq does not mean that the Arabian Gulf is peripheral to Australia's strategic interests. Australian forces have been deployed there regularly over the past 20 years, and Australia's and its main trading partners' energy requirements will increasingly be met from that region. In this new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Chief of Army Visiting Fellow Rodger Shanahan argues that Australia has permanent interests in the region and advocates the establishment of a strategic partnership with the United Arab Emirates.
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Australian defence policy
In this comment in the Kokoda Foundation journal Security Challenges, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf puts the case against Australia’s seeking military capabilities sufficient to single-handedly deter or cripple a major power.
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Why war in Asia remains thinkable
At a recent IISS conference in Japan, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White set out the case for why war between states remains thinkable in Asia.
His paper can be downloaded from here:
http://www.iiss.org/conferences/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/why-war-in-asia-remains-thinkable-prof-hugh-white/
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Rudd's Asian aria sounds familiar
In this opinion piece in the Australian Financial Review, international security program director Rory Medcalf suggests that Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd combine his vision for Asia-Pacific diplomatic architecture with more immediate steps for practical co-operation with Japan, Indonesia, India and others in nuclear arms control and maritime security.
Australian Financial Review, 10 June 2008, p. 79
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The new defence white paper:
why we need it and what it needs to do
In this Lowy Institute Perspective, Visiting Fellow Hugh White examines why Australia needs a new defence white paper, outlines the proper aims of such a project and identifies the pitfalls that need to be avoided.
He draws upon his experience in managing the development and drafting of Australia's 2000 defence white paper, arguing against any process which does not align strategic objectives, military capability plans and projected budgetary realities.
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India's disarmament drive an idea worth pursuing
India's tenth anniversary commemoration of its nuclear weapons tests was curiously low-key. In this opinion piece in The Australian, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that India's rekindled rhetoric about nuclear disarmament offers diplomatic openings for Australia and other countries interested in reducing nuclear dangers globally.
The Australian, 12 May 2008, p. 8
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The 2008 Michael and Deborah Thawley Scholarship
Applications are open for the 2008 Michael and Deborah Thawley Scholarship in International Security at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in partnership with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
This is an exceptional opportunity for an MA or PhD student at an Australian tertiary institution to take part in the work of two leading think tanks dedicated to generating original and policy-oriented ideas and research on world affairs.
For full details please go the Recruitment section at: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Recruitment.asp
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Professor Hugh White presentation
On 30 April at the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Professor Hugh White examined why Australia needs a new defence white paper, outlined the proper aims of such a project and identified the pitfalls that need to be avoided. He drew upon his experience in managing the development and drafting of the 2000 white paper to argue against any process which does not align strategic objectives, military capability plans and projected budgetary realities. Professor White's lecture was based on his new Lowy Institute Perspective, 'The new defence white paper: why we need it and what it needs to do'.
His presentation can be heard here:
The new defence white paper - MP3 (20MB)
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Lowy Institute's Thawley Scholar in Washington
The first winner of the Michael and Deborah Thawley Scholarship in International Security, Raoul Heinrichs (pictured here with Michael Thawley AO), has commenced a research placement in Washington. The scholarship, which began last year, covers costs for a leading young Australian scholar to undertake a combined research internship with the Lowy Institute and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, one of the leading think tanks in the United States. Raoul will spend two months at CSIS before returning to the Lowy Institute to complete his research publication, dealing with Australia's global security interests and role. The 2008 Thawley Scholarship will be advertised shortly.
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Big ideals but there's no budget to match
In this opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf appraises the Rudd Government's foreign and security policy ambitions, five months on. He notes the government's success in moving towards a world view that reconciles alliance commitments, the rise of China and multilateralism. But he warns that DFAT budget cuts make these ambitions unsustainable, and argues that engaging India along with pursuing rational and creative policies on nuclear energy and nuclear arms control remain major gaps.
Australian Financial Review, 21 April 2008, p. 63
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The nuclear energy revival and global governance
On 10-11 April 2008, the Lowy Institute co-hosted a workshop on 'The nuclear energy revival and global governance: Asia-Pacific perspectives' with the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo, Canada.
The aim of the workshop was to consider the future of nuclear energy in the Asia-Pacific region, the likely speed and nature of growth in the sector, and the impact that this might have on nuclear governance in the areas of safety, security, waste management and nuclear weapons proliferation.
The workshop was part of a worldwide project on 'Nuclear energy futures: implications for global governance' being conducted by CIGI with the Canadian Centre for Treaty Compliance (CCTC) at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University, Ottawa. The project will result in a public report to be be released in 2009. For further information see www.cigionline.ca. For information on the CCTC visit www.carleton.ca/cctc.
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Nuclear power in Southeast Asia: Implications for Australia and non-proliferation
This Lowy Institute Analysis by regional energy specialist Andrew Symon explores the reasons and prospects for increased interest in nuclear power in Southeast Asia, as well as implications for Australia and nuclear weapons non-proliferation. A key issue is whether countries will embark on sensitive segments of the fuel cycle. Approaches to help allay such concerns include international fuel supply mechanisms and the possibility of a co-operative approach to nuclear power development within ASEAN. Australia, as a major uranium supplier, regional neighbour and supporter of non-proliferation, will want to ensure that nuclear power in Southeast Asia develops safely and in a context of co-operation.
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Visit by US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State
On 3 April, the Lowy Institute hosted the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs with responsibility for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, Thomas J. Christensen. Professor Christensen spoke on US-China relations to a distinguished gathering of international scholars, drawn from a major conference on regional security, convened by the Australian National University and a range of partner institutions. In his informal remarks, Professor Christensen drew upon his recent Congressional testimony on how the US could help shape China’s policy choices through diplomacy.
Professor Christensen's Statement Before the U.S. – China Economic and Security Review Commission is at:
http://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2008/03/102327.htm
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Australia, monster slayer
A recent proposal for an Australian conventional flexible deterrent option, intended to cripple any major power that might threaten the country, would commit massive resources to a highly unlikely contingency, writes international security program director Rory Medcalf in this opinion piece in the Sydney Morning Herald. He suggests that any discussion of this 'Beowulf option' needs to factor in the opportunity costs of seeking to sustain a combat capability edge against what will become far wealthier and more powerful Asian states.
Sydney Morning Herald, 9 April 2008, p. 11
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Andrew Symon presentation
On 9 April at the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Singapore-based analyst and journalist Andrew Symon spoke about the increasing interest in nuclear energy in Southeast Asia, to coincide with the launch of a Lowy Institute Analysis written by him on the same topic, 'Nuclear power in Southeast Asia: implications for Australia and non-proliferation'.
His presentation is available here in PowerPoint:
Nuclear power in Southeast Asia - PPT (17MB)
His presentation can be heard here:
Nuclear power in Southeast Asia - MP3 (21MB)
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Not a fight to hedge on
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Anthony Bubalo and Rory Medcalf argue that while Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has made Australia's role in Afghanistan conditional, that country is far too important to abandon.
The Australian, 4 April 2008, p. 12
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Thinking security
On Thursday 19 March 2008 the Hon. Kim Beazley delivered the second annual Coral Bell Lecture in Canberra. The purpose of this annual lecture is to recognise those individuals who, in their professional careers, have been able to bridge the worlds of academe and international policymaking. The lecture series reflects the key objective of the Lowy Institute to produce original research that combines academic rigor with policy relevance.
Mr Beazley spoke on the topic Thinking security: Influencing national strategy from the academy; An Australian experience.
This lecture series is named in honour of Dr Coral Bell, whose career epitomised the successful union of international policy theory with its practice.
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The emerging global order
This Lowy Institute Paper by Senator Russell Trood explores the shifting foundations of the emerging global order. It identifies the fault-lines of today's world politics and assesses the effectiveness of traditional approaches to armed force, international organisations and international law.
It combines a comprehensive survey of the challenges facing the international community - from terrorism and nuclear proliferation to climate change, pandemics, population and energy pressures - with a set of recommendations to guide Australian foreign policy under a policy framework of selective global activism.
To order a hard copy of this publication click here.
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Hesitating on the brink of partnership
In this piece for the East-West Center, Washington, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that Australia and India are hesitating at the brink of real partnership in their strategic relations. It will take sustained political will on both sides over the next few years to bring the relationship to its potential. If these hopes end up unfulfilled, the reasons could well be connected to Indian perceptions, however misinformed, about Australian policies on uranium and on China.
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Dear Mr Rudd: Defence
In this conversation, one of a series related to the launch of 'Dear Mr Rudd: ideas for a better Australia' edited by Robert Manne (Black Inc), Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White and Robert Manne address the past, present and future of Australian defence policy.
http://www.themonthly.com.au/tm/node/844
[part one]
http://www.themonthly.com.au/tm/node/843
[part two]
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Rodger Shanahan presentation
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 19 March, Chief of Army Visiting Fellow Colonel Rodger Shanahan discussed the current status of Lebanese Hizbullah and how political forces may shape its future in a presentation entitled 'Hizbullah's post-war dilemma: walking the Lebanese political tightrope?'
The presentation can be heard here:
Hizbullah's post-war dilemma - MP3 (20MB)
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The promise and the limits of the US-India relationship
The 2008 Australia-India Strategic Lecture was presented at the Lowy Institute on 25 March 2008 by Ambassador Lalit Mansingh. The title of his lecture was 'The promise and the limits of the India-US relationship: What it means for Asia and the world'. The partnership between India and the United States has been a central part of the story of India's changing place in the world in recent years, and Ambassador Mansingh has played a singular role in the transformation of the relationship between the world's two largest democracies. He is a former Indian Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to the United States. His visit to Australia was supported by the Australia-India Council, the Lowy Institute's partner in the Australia-India Strategic Lecture.
Ambassador Mansingh's lecture can be heard here:
2008 Australia-India Strategic Lecture - MP3 (23MB)
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Rory Medcalf presentation
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 12 March 2008, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf proposed a new type of arms control initiative for the Rudd Government, one focused primarily on Asia and its rising nuclear-armed powers China and India.
His presentation, 'Nuclear arms control and disarmament: What can Australia do?' can be heard here:
Nuclear arms control and disarmament - MP3 (18MB)
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Let's not leap into the fire as we leave the frying pan
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that we should maintain a small presence in Afghanistan for the sake of the US alliance but without overcommitting ourselves.
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Quadrilateral dialogue
The quadrilateral dialogue among the US, Japan, Australia and India was never as substantial as its champions or its detractors claimed it to be, argues international security program director Rory Medcalf in this article in the February-March edition of The Diplomat. China saw menace in a phantom. In fact, the quad was not an embryonic alliance, its effects were mixed - and it may not be quite dead.
The Diplomat, Feb-March 2008, pp. 16-18
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India should play its part
In this article in new Indian publication Pragati ('Progress'), International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that Australia alone cannot do all the running in building a strategic partnership with India. India needs to recognise Australia as a serious strategic player in the Indo-Pacific region, not just a US ally or an adjunct to ASEAN. He also suggests that India needs to recognise the genuineness of Australia's motives on nuclear arms control, and that new efforts at co-operation between the two countries in this field could eventually help to generate bipartisanship in Australia on supplying uranium to India.
Pragati: The Indian National Interest Review, No. 11, February 2008, pp 2-4 (online at http://pragati.nationalinterest.in)
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Nixonian spirit is essential for US-China relations
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that John McCain is the candidate most likely to emulate his Republican predecessor and be a true statesman in our region.
The Australian, 27 February 2008, p. 14
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Defence umbrella put to the test
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Sam Roggeveen writes that friends and foes alike are watching as the US shoots down its satellite.
The Australian, 20 February 2008, p. 14
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PM's Defence dilemma
In this opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Professor Hugh White argues that Kevin Rudd's good intentions may not be enough to fix the many operational problems within our armed forces.
The Australian, 12 February 2008, p. 12
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Australia-India strategic ties
On 9 February, International Security program director Rory Medcalf was interviewed by ABC broadcaster Geraldine Doogue on her Radio National program, Saturday Extra, on the challenge of advancing Australia's strategic ties with India. He argued that Australia needs to raise its India relationship to the same level as its links with Beijing, given India's massive growth potential as an economic and military power. The interview also considered the rising importance of the Indian Navy and prospects for revisiting Australian uranium sales to India. A podcast of the interview can be heard here: http://www.abc.net.au/rn/saturdayextra/stories/2008/2157619.htm
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How we missed a chance for peace
Sam Roggeveen, editor of the Lowy Institute blog, The Interpreter, reviews Arsenals of Folly: The Making of the Nuclear Arms Race, by Richard Rhodes.
Sydney Morning Herald, 2 February 2008, p. S28
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The end of the Vasco da Gama era
The new Australian Government will have to navigate some difficult diplomatic waters in a world where power is shifting away from unipolarity and towards an Asia-centric multipolar order. This Lowy Institute Paper by one of Australia's renowned international security scholars, Dr Coral Bell AO, sketches the probable future landscape of the society of states as it emerges from the twilight of US paramountcy. Dr Bell argues that the world is in transition to a multipolar balance of six great powers: the United States, the European Union, China, India, Russia and Japan. She analyses their respective interests and ambitions, and offers some observations on the options for Canberra presented by the end of the 'Vasco da Gama era' of Western ascendancy over Asia.
To order a hard copy of this publication click here.
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Time to lift our game and engage India
In this opinion piece in The Age, international security program director Rory Medcalf argues that recent progress in China-India relations is a reminder that Australia needs to invest more seriously in its India diplomacy.
The Age, 17 January 2008, p. 15
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World order under stress: issues & initiatives
Professor Robert O'Neill AO, a member of the Lowy Institute's Board of Directors, delivered the Cunningham Lecture for 2007 at the Academy of the Social Sciences. The title of his Lecture, available here, is 'World order under stress: issues and initiatives for the 21st century'.
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How Australia can help Pakistan
In this opinion piece in The Sydney Morning Herald, international security program director Rory Medcalf identifies the steps Australia can and should take to pursue its declared support for a more democratic and secure order in Pakistan, following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.
Sydney Morning Herald, 8 January 2008, p. 11
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Australia's relations with India
Rory Medcalf's brief on Australia's relations with India is an Incoming Government Brief on the Lowy Institute's blog The Interpreter: http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/
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Australia's strategic dilemmas
No matter who wins the 24 November Federal election, the next Australian government will face dilemmas in international policy, especially in defence and security. In this article published in the UK Royal United Services Institute's Newsbrief, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf writes that Australia's improved security capabilities will not enable the country to escape difficult decisions in the years ahead. These relate to questions of force and risk in US-led campaigns, as well as to the mismatch between Australia's interests and capabilities in an uncertain strategic environment.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Peter Beck presentation
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 14 November 2007, Mr Peter Beck, Executive Director of the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, spoke on the plight of a large number of ordinary people who have fled the hardship of life in North Korea to a precarious existence in China. His presentation was entitled 'Perilous journeys: the plight of North Korean refugees in China and beyond.' An ICG report referred to by Mr Beck in his presentation can be found here.
The presentation can be heard here:
Perilous journeys - MP3 (19MB)
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Panellists' presentations
On 24 November a new Australian Government was elected under the leadership of Kevin Rudd, MP, a Chinese-speaking former diplomat with deep expertise in foreign policy.
At the Wednesday Lowy Lunch on 5 December a panel of analysts commented on prospective international policy under Mr Rudd's government.
The panellists included: Dr Malcolm Cook, Program Director, Asia & the Pacific; Dr Michael Fullilove, Program Director, Global Issues; and Rory Medcalf, Program Director International Security.
The presentations of the panellists, Dr Malcolm Cook, Dr Michael Fullilove and Rory Medcalf can be heard here:
Australia’s international policy under the Rudd Government - MP3 (21MB)
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Defence and security
The Lowy Institute Voters' Guide to International Policy addresses the sort of questions we should be putting to our political leaders.
Section 4 of the Guide, 'Defence and Security', by Rory Medcalf, Program Director International Security, is available here.
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Australia and Indonesia
The changing Australian security relationship with its largest neighbour, Indonesia, is the subject of a chapter the Executive Director of the Lowy Institute, Allan Gyngell, has contributed to a new book. 'Australia as an Asia Pacific Regional Power; Friendship in Flux' was edited by Dr Brendan Taylor and includes chapters by many leading Australian scholars. It is published by Routledge. You can read Allan Gyngell's chapter here.
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Stopping a nuclear arms race between America and China
China and America may be at the start of a destabilising nuclear arms race, as China tries to preserve its ability to deter US nuclear attack in the light of US missile defences and nuclear system upgrades. That would undermine hopes that the US and China can build a stable cooperative relationship as China's power grows. So Australia has a big interest in trying to help head off the risk of an arms race. In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Hugh White suggests that there is something simple we could try.
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Defensive positions
In this article in The Bulletin magazine, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf assesses that a militarised Asia could prove a boon or a bane in an age of climate refugees.
The Bulletin, 9 October 2007, p. 27
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Beyond the Paramount Area
In this paper for a pre-election edition of the Kokoda Foundation journal Security Challenges, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf outlines some of the possible difficult decisions ahead for Australian security policy in regions beyond the neighbourhood. With limited defence resources, and potentially unbounded global interests, Australia will need to weigh relativities of risk and translate them into deployment decisions. Australian governments have more discretion that they publicly acknowledge in deciding where and how to use the Australian Defence Force. But alliance expectations will weigh heavily in both regions most linked to Australia's global interests, Northeast Asia and West Asia.
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Uranium sales to India appear inevitable, but there's still scope for a better price
In an extended opinion piece in the Melbourne Age, Rory Medcalf, Program Director, International Security, explores how Australia might agree to sell uranium to India in ways consistent with shared interests in reducing nuclear dangers globally. A shorter version of this article appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald and the online Brisbane Times.
The Age, 6 August 2007, p. 11
Sydney Morning Herald, 6 August 2007, p. 11
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Weapons of mass destruction: maintaining the rage
The inaugural John Gee Memorial Lecture, 'Weapons of mass destruction: maintaining the rage', was delivered by Gareth Evans, President, International Crisis Group, at the Australian National University, Canberra, on 16 August 2007, in conjunction with the Lowy Institute for International Policy. A transcript of the lecture can be downloaded here.
The lecture can also be heard here.
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Will this be the Pacific Century?
This Lowy Institute Perspective, by Non-resident Senior Fellow Professor Alan Dupont, is based on his presentation to the Fifth Pacific Armies' Chiefs' Conference (PACC V), in Sydney, on 6 August 2007.
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Rory Medcalf on www.economist.com
Rory Medcalf's analysis on the context and implications of possible Australian uranium sales to India featured in a story titled 'The Indian exception' in The Economist on 23 August 2007: http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9687637.
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Awarding of the inaugural Michael and Deborah Thawley Bursary
The Lowy Institute is pleased to announce the awarding of the inaugural Michael and Deborah Thawley bursary in international security. Raoul E. Heinrichs will join the Lowy Institute's International Security Program as an intern in late 2007. Under a new provision of the bursary, he will also have the opportunity for research at a leading US think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in Washington in early 2008. Mr Heinrichs is currently a T.B. Millar Scholar in Strategic and Defence Studies, studying for an MA (Strategic Studies) at the Australian National University. His research project during his internships with Lowy and CSIS will address prospects for relations among Australia, the United States, Japan and India in the context of Australia's global strategic interests and role.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Dr Norman Friedman presentation
Western militaries in the early 21st century find themselves busy with land-based stabilisation and counter-insurgency missions. Yet at the same time, many countries are embarking on major new investments in naval capabilities. Australia, for instance, recently announced its selection of three air warfare destroyers and two large 'strategic projection' transport ships. This week at the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Dr Norman Friedman, a leading U.S. expert on strategic and naval affairs, explored why naval power still matters.
His presentation can be heard here:
Why naval power matters - MP3 (18MB)
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Terrorism fight takes back seat in rise of the Asian century
In an opinion piece for The Sydney Morning Herald, Visiting Fellow Hugh White discussed the launch of the Federal Government's new Defence Update released on 5 July.
The Sydney Morning Herald, 6 July 2007
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Defence update's hidden depths
In an opinion piece for the Australian Financial Review, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf looks at the 2007 Defence Update. He describes it as a welcome effort to explain Australia's growing military power, but notes that it also carries messages and omissions which could raise as many questions as they answer.
Australian Financial Review, 10 July 2007, p. 63
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Defence policies more about politics than strategy
Rory Medcalf, Program Director International Security, was interviewed on ABC Radio's PM program on the defence policy statements released by the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader.
The interview is available at: http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s1971153.htm
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Red Mosque fighting continues
Rory Medcalf, Program Director International Security, was interviewed on ABC Radio's The World Today program on the continuing fighting in Islamabad's Red Mosque and implications for President Musharraf's hold on power.
The interview is available at: http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s1975741.htm
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Lateline interviews: Hugh White and Alan Dupont
Visiting Fellow Professor Hugh White and Non-resident Senior Fellow Professor Alan Dupont were interviewed by Virginia Trioli on ABC's Lateline program on the political aspects of terrorism and national security.
The interviews are available at:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s1972427.htm
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Lateline interview: Rory Medcalf
Rory Medcalf was interviewed on ABC TV's Lateline program on the siege of Islamabad's Red Mosque.
The interview is available at: http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s1974185.htm
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Rory Medcalf presentation
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 20 June, Rory Medcalf, Program Director International Security, assessed the likely impacts of a powerful India on Australia's future strategic environment. He drew upon his experience as a diplomat in New Delhi to consider the sources of India's new confidence as a geopolitical player, the drivers of Indian strategic behaviour, and the prospects for security partnerships with New Delhi. He suggested that, for Australia, the hard decisions in engaging India lay ahead. This presentation was reported widely in the Indian press.
His presentation can be heard here:
Dealing with a powerful India - MP3 (19MB)
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Malcolm Cook & Rory Medcalf presentations
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 9 May, Malcolm Cook, Program Director Asia & the Pacific, and Rory Medcalf, Program Director International Security, explored what the Australia-Japan Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation means for Australia-Japan relations and what it tells us about Japan's new security posture. They also covered implications for the region, including Chinese perceptions.
Their presentations can be heard here:
Connecting the spokes - MP3 (21MB)
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Professor Hugh White presentation
On 23 May at the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Visiting Fellow Hugh White spoke on the topic 'A nuclear arms race between China and the United States: what Australia can do to stop it'.
His presentation can be heard here:
A nuclear arms race between China and the US - MP3 (20MB)
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Mass destruction, mass distribution
Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Owen Harries reviewed 'The atomiz bazaar', a book about the current and prospective states of the nuclear arms industry by William Langewiesche, in the Wall Street Journal.
Wall Street Journal, 22 May 2007, P. D7
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Anzac, our Achilles heel?
In this opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that the nation's defence strategy should be about future threats, not past glories.
The Age, 24 May 2007, p. 15
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Professor Hugh White
On 23 May at the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Visiting Fellow Hugh White spoke on the topic 'A nuclear arms race between China and the United States: what Australia can do to stop it'. His presentation will be available on 24 May.
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Uranium for India: avoiding the pitfalls
In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Ron Walker, a former Australian Permanent Representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, warns that selling uranium to India without the same legal obligations and non-proliferation standards that apply to our other customers could undermine our broader foreign policy interests and weaken the national consensus to continue uranium mining and exports.
The Brief argues that instead of making an exception for India, Australia should work to strengthen the international nuclear non-proliferation system and engage India in that process. The result could be a more effective non-proliferation regime and one that includes India and, potentially, one day, the other two NPT holdouts.
Ron Walker is a Visiting Fellow at the Asia-Pacific College of Diplomacy at the Australian National University. He was Chairman of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency in 1993-1994.
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Max Boot presentation
Mr Max Boot, Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, spoke at the Lowy Institute on 17 May on the situation in Iraq, including the prospects for the current US strategy and the consequences if it fails.
His speech can be heard here:
Technology, warfare and the course of history - MP3 (21MB)
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Another nuclear arms race is in the offing
In this opinion piece, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White writes that there are ways Australia can help reduce the risk of a nuclear arms race between the United States and China.
Sydney Morning Herald, 10 May 2007, p. 11
The Age, 10 May 2007, p. 15
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Time is ripe for investment in Africa
Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Mark O'Neill writes in this opinion piece in the Australian Financial Review that Australia's renewed focus on Zimbabwe should reignite wider interest in Africa.
Australian Financial Review, 16 May 2007, p. 63
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Hardly a war to end war
The Lowy Institute's Program Director for International Security, Rory Medcalf, looks at how the Iraq conflict might affect Western countries' future decisions on the use of force. He argues that this impact will be less straightforward than the war's magnitude as a US strategic error might suggest. But one legacy of Iraq will be to add to demands on the ADF. This piece appeared originally in an ASPI online forum.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Mark O'Neill presentation
This week’s regular Lowy Lunch, which took place on Tuesday 24 April, was presented by Lieutenant Colonel Mark O'Neill, the Army Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy.
On ANZAC Day Australians reflect upon the sacrifices made by the men and women in the service of our nation during war. The ANZAC legend was created during the First World War and subsequently reinforced during the Second World War. This has created an enduring public perception that the nature of our wars is predominately 'state on state' or 'conventional'. This paradigmatic perception has shaped public policy thinking on defence and security issues.
Mark O'Neill argued that this perception is erroneous. He suggested that our participation in conventional wars is the exception rather than the norm.
His presentation can be heard here:
Australia's small wars - MP3 (17MB)
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Uranium thorn
This opinion piece by Rory Medcalf in the Times of India is a version of an article previously published in the Australian Financial Review. It argues that Australia should try to reconcile its uranium and non-proliferation policies with India's rise.
Times of India, 20 April 2007
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The road to Tehran
In this opinion piece published in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White writes that the next president may need to emulate Richard Nixon to find an exit strategy from Iraq.
The Age, 12 April 2007, p. 15
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A road Australia has travelled already
Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues in this opinion piece that nuclear weapons cease to be an improbability if Australia decides to enrich its uranium.
Sydney Morning Herald, 1 March 2007, p. 17
The Age, 1 March 2007, p. 19
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The changing Asia-Pacific security web
In this opinion piece in The Age, Rory Medcalf, Program Director for International Security, writes on the wider regional significance of the new Japan-Australia Joint Declaration on Security Co-operation. He argues that there are ways in which closer Australia-Japan security dialogue might end up being in China's interests.
The Age, 16 March 2007, p. 15
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Uranium and India: keep options open
Rory Medcalf, Program Director, International Security, writes in this opinion piece that Australia should try to reconcile its uranium and non-proliferation policies with India's rise.
Australian Financial Review, 4 April 2007
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Defence faces a deficit deeper than our pockets
In this opinion piece, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White examines the Defence budget and the decision to spend $6 billion on 24 F-18F Super Hornet aircraft.
Sydney Morning Herald, 29 March 2007, p. 13 and The Age, 20 March 2007, p. 19
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The Lowy Institute welcomes Mr Rory Medcalf as Program Director for International Security
Mr Rory Medcalf has joined the Lowy Institute as Program Director for International Security.
Further details can be found in the attached media release.
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Scorched earth an insecure place
Lowy Institute Non-resident Senior Fellow, Professor Alan Dupont, writes on the new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. He is the author, with Dr Graeme Pearman, of a Lowy Institute Paper entitled 'Heating up the planet: climate change and security', available at: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=391
The Australian, 5 February 2007, p. 8
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Pursuit of naval capability heads Blair, Howard in different directions
In this opinion piece, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that Australia's naval expansion plans carry grave risk at a time of ever more sophisticated weaponry.
Sydney Morning Herald, 8 February 2007, p. 15
The Age, 8 February 2007, p. 17
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Trouble looms, whichever path Bush takes
In this opinion piece in the Sydney Morning Herald, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White discusses the costs and risks of staying in Iraq and of leaving Iraq.
Sydney Morning Herald, 19 December 2006, p. 11.
A version of this opinion piece was also published in The Age, 19 Decemebr 2006, p. 13
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Australian defence policy
The outgoing Secretary of the Department of Defence, Mr Ric Smith AO PSM, gave his reflections on a time of deep change in Australian defence policy in a speech in the Lowy Institute's Distinguished Speaker Series on 13 November 2006 on the subject 'Change in defence'.
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The new - and old - threats beyond defence of Australia
Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues in this opinion piece that Australia needs a light army and a heavy-hitting navy and air force. His Lowy Institute Paper, entitled Beyond the Defence of Australia, is being released this week.
Sydney Morning Herald, 5 Decemebr 2006, p. 15.
A version of this op-ed was published in The Age, 5 December 2006, p. 13.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Professor Alan Dupont presentation
On 1 November at the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Professor Alan Dupont, the Michael Hintze Chair of International Security at the University of Sydney, explored the implications of North Korea's nuclear weapons program for global and regional security following Pyongyang’s provocative nuclear test on 9 October.
His presentation can be heard here:
North Korea - MP3 (19MB)
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Stronger China, tougher Japan make an Asian stand-off
In this opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that this is the time to ease tension between the two regional powers.
The Age, 17 November 2006, p. 15
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Why are we in Iraq? Australian policy
In this opinion piece in the Sydney Morning Herald, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Professor Hugh White examines Australian policy on Iraq.
Sydney Morning Herald, 1 November 2006, p. 15
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Australian defence capability planning: the facts from the Chief
The Australian Defence Force is currently undertaking operations in nine locations across the globe, with over 3,000 men and women committed. This is a level of activity without recent precedent. The Australian Government recently committed to a Defence budget increase equivalent to 3% in real terms. Some of this will fund the acquisition and ongoing sustainment of the ADF's commitment to capability development expressed in The Defence Capability Plan 2006-2016.
The Chief of the ADF's Capability Development Group, Lieutenant General David Hurley AO DSC, spoke to the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy audience on 23rd August. In a wide-ranging presentation, General Hurley offered an insider's unique perspective from his senior position within the ADF on a number of important and topical issues.
His presentation can be found here:
Defence Capability Planning - MP3 (20MB)
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Interview: Professor Hugh White
Professor Hugh White, Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute, was interviewed by Mark Colvin on the relationship between the US vote and the war in Iraq.
The interview is available at:
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2006/s1784991.htm
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Moti affair offers a lesson for a short-sighted neighbour
In this opinion piece, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Professor Hugh White examines the significance of the Moti affair.
Sydney Morning Herald, 19 October 2006, p. 19
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Back to the future of keeping peace in the neighbourhood
Professor Hugh White, Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute, writes in this opinion piece that the army has been transformed into an instrument of Australia's policy of engagement in its neighbourhood.
Sydney Morning Herald, 28 August 2006, p. 11
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Time to move on in the defence policy debate
The paradigm of strategic geography gained prominence in Australian defence policy in the 1987 Defence White Paper 'The Defence of Australia'. Time and evolving strategic circumstance has made this paradigm increasingly irrelevant to Australia's defence. Recent Government defence policy, operational commitments and acquisitions reflect this fact. Despite this, adherents continue to advocate the need for strategic geography as the bedrock of Australian defence Policy.
In an article published in the Australian Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 60(3), pp. 358-363, September 2006, the Lowy Institute's Army Fellow, Mark O'Neill, argues that the case has been made to move on from the strategic geography paradigm. He points out that many of the arguments made in support of it do not stand up under detailed examination.
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Terrorism a threat, but not to our way of life
In this opinion piece in The Age, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White examines the real extent of the threat of terrorism to society at large.
The Age, 11 September 2006, P. 13
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Professor Hugh White presentation
On 26 July at the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Professor Hugh White addressed the challenges of modern armies and humanitarian missions. His presentation was entitled 'A force for good? Modern armies and humanitarian missions'. Professor White contended that armed forces are not very good at many humanitarian roles, and indeed they might be better off sticking to the job for which they are designed.
His presentation can be heard here:
Professor Hugh White Presentation - MP3 (21MB)
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Heat building as governments ignore dangers
In this opinion piece in The Australian, Alan Dupont writes that security is one of the unaddressed issues posed by climate change.
The Australian, 13 June 2006, p. 12
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Why this new fighter jet is worth the gamble
In this opinion piece, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White argues that for all its problems, the Joint Strike Fighter will uphold our military status in the region.
The Age, 18 July 2006, p. 11
This opinion piece was also published in the Sydney Morning Herald, 19 July 2006, p. 11
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Time to face climate change implications
Dr Alan Dupont appeared on ABC Television's Lateline program to discuss the new Lowy Institute Paper jointly authored by Dr Dupont and Dr Graeme Pearman entitled "Heating up the planet: climate change and security". The Paper is available for download at: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=391
A transcript of the interview is available on the ABC website at:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2006/s1664303.htm
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Interview: Hugh White
Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Hugh White was interviewed on ABC 702 Statewide Mornings program on reports that North Korea had launched four missiles.
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Interview: Dr Alan Dupont
Dr Alan Dupont was interviewed by Linda LoPresti on Radio National's Asia Pacific program on the new Japan-United States strategic agreement.
The interview can be heard at:
http://www.abc.net.au/ra/asiapac/programs/s1629063.htm
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Just who's afraid of China?
In this opinion piece, Hugh White writes that the United States risks too much in portraying China as a threat to the rest of Asia.
The Age, 21 June 2006, p. 15
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The spying game
Dr Alan Dupont was interviewed on Nine Network's Sunday program on the secret operations of Australia's domestic intelligence organisation, ASIO, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation. A transcript is available from the Nine Network's website at:
http://sunday.ninemsn.com.au/sunday/...
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Australian Grand Strategy Symposium
Dr Alan Dupont, Senior Fellow for International Security at the Lowy Institute, presented a paper entitled 'Matching Means and Ends' at a symposium he organised in collaboration with the Land Warfare Studies Centre, the Sturdee Symposium on Australian Grand Strategy, held in Canberra on 12 April 2005.
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We need to tell Condi some blunt truths
In this opinion piece, Alan Dupont writes on the trilateral security dialogue, Condoleezza Rice's statements, and the perils of alienating China.
The Australian, 15 March 2006, p. 12
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The schizophrenic superpower
Dr Alan Dupont has published an article entitled The Schizophrenic Superpower in the journal The National Interest.
When Robert Kagan famously wrote that, in their approach to power and security, Americans are from Mars and Europeans from Venus, what might he have said about Japan? In most respects, post-modern Japan has been more like Europe than America in preferring diplomacy to force, persuasion to coercion and multilateralism to unilateralism.
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The real battle is far from the battlefield
In this opinion piece, Hugh White writes that to fix problems in the Defence Force, leadership needs to start at the very top.
Sydney Morning Herald, 25 May 2006, p. 11
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Unsheathing the Samurai sword: Japan's changing security policy
This Lowy Institute Paper by Senior Fellow for International Security, Dr Alan Dupont, argues that Japan is moving away from its pacifist past towards a more hardheaded and outward looking security posture characterised by a greater willingness to use the Self Defense Force in support of its foreign policy and defence interests.
This shift is evolutionary, not revolutionary, but it is gaining momentum and represents a defining watershed in Japan's postwar security policy which will require some new thinking in Canberra as well as Tokyo.
To order a hard copy of this publication click here.
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We have to bring out the big guns
In this opinion piece, Dr Alan Dupont of the Lowy Institute details expectations of the upcoming 2005 strategic update and suggests that an army with greater firepower will improve national security.
The Australian, 29 November 2005, p. 12
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Buying air warfare destroyers: a strategic decision
The Government has chosen a builder for three new Air Warfare Destroyers [AWDs] before it has properly considered whether we really need to buy them, and how best to buy them if we do. At $6 billion it's the biggest defence equipment decision in fifteen years, so it needs more careful consideration. In fact AWDs are far from our highest defence priority; buying them would be a mistake, and squeeze more important Air and Army capabilities. And Defence's complex new acquisition process raises real risks that, if it goes ahead, the project will run into some of the same problems that have dogged the Collins submarines. Ministers need to look carefully before signing off on it.
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