Western approaches: responses to China from the Middle East and Central Asia
 As part of a major new project exploring how three key states in the Middle East and Central Asia - Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Iran - approach their relations with China, the West Asia program is releasing a short video previewing some of the project's research issues and themes.
The nine-minute video, which can also be viewed by chapter, recounts a recent research trip to Kazakhstan and China by project authors Anthony Bubalo and Konrad Muller. The first two papers in the project on Saudi relations with China and Kazakh relations with China will be published in 2012.
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| Anthony Bubalo opinion piece |
Time to weigh our role in Iran threat In an opinion piece in The Australian, Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, writes that any US military confrontation with Iran in the Gulf would quickly underline the need for Australia to view its ties in the region in a similar way.
The...
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| Afghan Voices |
Two Afghan views of Australia from Uruzgan In a new paper in the Lowy Institute’s Afghan Voices series, we provide two very different perspectives on Australia’s military and development efforts in Uruzgan.
The first comes in the form of excerpts from an uncompleted draft on the subject by...
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Iran gets room to manoeuvre in phantom war
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Non-resident Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan argues that US pullouts from Iraq and Afghanistan may boost Tehran's influence.
The Australian, 8 December 2011, p. 8
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Politics will determine Uruzgan exit strategy
In an opinion piece in The Sydney Morning Herald, Lowy Institute Military Associate James Brown writes that the timeline for withdrawing Australian troops from Afghanistan is largely out of the Government's hands.
Sydney Morning Herald, 13 December 2011, p. 9
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Egypt’s military to outlast transition
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, writes that both the protesters and the generals in Egypt seem to have lost sight of some hard realities.
The Australian, 25 November 2011, p. 10
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Talib or Taliban?
 In 'Talib or Taliban? Indonesian students in Pakistan and Yemen', the Lowy Institute, in collaboration with the Centre for International Security Studies at Sydney University and the Centre for Muslim States and Societies at the University of Western Australia, looks at whether Indonesian students studying at Islamic institutions in Pakistan and Yemen pose a risk in terms of future patterns of extremism in Indonesia.
A podcast of the launch can be heard here - MP3 (21MB)
The report can be downloaded here - PDF (798KB)
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Lowy Lecture Series - Dr Albert Palazzo presentation
At the Lowy Lecture on 2 November 2011, Dr Albert Palazzo from the Australian Army's Directorate of Research and Analysis contrasted the US and Australia's success in achieving their strategic objectives in going to war with Iraq. He argued that in Iraq the United States failed to achieve its purpose in going to war, but by contrast the war proved a victory for Australia – an outcome determined by the two countries' different strategic objectives. He assessed how Australia, as a minor coalition partner, orchestrated this success, and whether it was worthwhile.
His presentation can be heard here:
Assessing the war in Iraq: an Australian strategic perspective - MP3 (19MB)
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Lowy Lecture Series - Dr Rodger Shanahan presentation
In the Lowy Lecture Series on 14 September 2011, Lowy Institute Non-resident Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan examined the Arab Spring from the perspective of the region's Sunni-Shi'a divide, characterised by the competition for influence between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
His presentation can be heard here:
Iran, the Shi'a crescent and the Arab Spring - MP3 (19MB)
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The shifting geopolitics of aviation
On Thursday 11 August 2011, James Hogan, CEO of Etihad Airways, delivered the Lowy Institute for International Policy’s inaugural Australia-Gulf Lecture. He spoke on 'The shifting geopolitics of aviation'.
The aim of the Australia-Gulf lecture series is to provide a platform for political and business leaders to inject fresh thinking and provide their reflections on the rapidly expanding relationship between Australia and the Gulf region.
James Hogan was appointed CEO of Etihad Airways on 10 September 2006, bringing more than 30 years of travel industry expertise to the Abu Dhabi-based airline. CEO Magazine named him Aviation CEO of the Year in 2008 and Visionary of the Year in 2010.
Listen to his interview with The Interpreter here and his presentation can be heard here
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A democracy gulf in the Gulf
In an opinion piece in The Drum, Lowy Institute Non-resident Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan writes on the way Gulf rulers are approaching the issue of popular participation in government.
The Drum, 22 September 2011
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Enduring ties and enduring interests? Australia's post-Afghanistan strategic choices in the Gulf
In a new Policy Brief, Lowy Institute Non-resident Fellow Rodger Shanahan examines Australia's security relationship with the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Largely as a consequence of military deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan, Australia has developed strong defence ties with key GCC countries, in particular the UAE. But with these deployments coming to an end, the future of these ties is now in question. In this Policy Brief, Shanahan argues that Australia's growing strategic interests in the Gulf would justify keeping a small military presence in the UAE, even after Australia's last troops have left Afghanistan.
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Troops should be kept in Middle East
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Non-resident Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan writes that a small regional military base in the United Arab Emirates makes sense.
The Australian, 18 August 2011, p. 8
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Courting Reform now in Bahasa Indonesia
The Lowy Institute is proud to announce that its groundbreaking research on the Indonesian Islamic courts is now available in the Indonesian language. 'Courting Reform: Indonesia’s Islamic Courts and Justice for the Poor' is published in Indonesia by Institut Studi islam Fahmina (ISIF) and can be ordered here.
The paper was launched in March in Indonesia by Bapak Harifin Tumpa, Chief Justice of the Indonesian Supreme Court and Her Honour Diana Bryant, Chief Justice of the Family Court of Australia.
Photo (from left to right): Leisha Lister, Family Court of Australia, Bapak Wahyu Widiana, Director-General of the Religious Courts, Cate Sumner, Bapak Harifin Tumpa, Her Honour Diana Bryant, Bapak Marzuki Wahid, Fahmina Institute (publisher of the book in Bahasa Indonesia), and Julia Suryakusuma.
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Omaid's story
Susanne Schmeidl, the co-founder of the Afghan NGO, The Liaison Office, and editor of the Lowy Institute’s Afghan Voices series, writes here of the death in Afghanistan of Afghan journalist Ahmad Omaid Khpalwak.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Professor Anatol Lieven presentation
In the past decade Pakistan has become a country of immense importance to its region, the United States, and the world. With almost 200 million people, a 500,000-man army, nuclear weapons, and a large diaspora in Britain and North America, Pakistan is of singular importance in the volatile south Asia region. At the Wednesday Lunch on 8 June, Professor Anatol Lieven, Professor in the War Studies Department of King’s College, London, presented a portrait of a country with a deeply flawed but nonetheless working system, tougher and more resilient than is usually assumed.
His presentation can be heard here:
Pakistan: a hard country - MP3 (20MB)
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Justice or stability? Hizbullah, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and consequences for the region
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Non-resident Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan explores what the outcomes of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, will mean for both key domestic actors in Lebanese politics, most notably Hizbullah, and regional players like Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United States.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Anthony Bubalo presentation
The recent turmoil in Tunisia and Egypt underlines that something fundamental is shifting in the Middle East, with profound implications for both the region and the wider world. At the Wednesday Lowy Lunch on 16 February, Anthony Bubalo explored how far such uprisings are likely to spread in the region, which regimes are vulnerable and which aren't, and what this all means for the Middle East's stability and prosperity.
His presentation can be heard here:
Where will the Arab uprisings stop? - MP3 (21MB)
A video of this presentation along with other selected videos, is available from our Video Library.
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Food for Thought Series
On 30 March, in the first of the Lowy Institute’s Food for Thought lectures for this year, Cate Sumner and Tim Lindsey discussed how the Indonesian Islamic courts have embraced reform within a judicial system notorious for corruption and incompetence, taking the lead in efforts to deliver decisions that are more accessible, transparent and fair, especially for women and the poor. Indeed the courts have become models of socially oriented judicial reform, for both non-religious courts in Indonesia and also for Islamic courts elsewhere in Southeast Asia.
Their presentations can be heard here:
Courting reform: Indonesia's Islamic courts - MP3 (22MB)
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Is it time to talk to the Taliban?
Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, answers the question 'Is it time to talk to the Taliban?' in The Sydney Morning Herald's Question Time column on 16 April 2011.
Sydney Morning Herald, 16 April 2011, p. 13
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'But this time, everything turns out differently': what the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings mean for the Middle East
 In a new Lowy Institute Perspective, West Asia Program Director Anthony Bubalo examines the consequences for the Middle East of the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. ‘But this time everything turns out differently’ argues that the uprisings reflect long-terms trends and crises common to most countries of the region and their impact will be felt for many years to come.
The uprisings have also focused attention on the role of Islamist movements. In 2008 the Lowy Institute explored this question in 'Zealous democrats: Islamism and democracy in Egypt, Indonesia and Turkey', which examined how Islamist movements try to adapt to democratic politics.
You can download a copy of Zealous Democrats here.
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A view from Kandahar
In a new Afghan Voices paper, Zabih Ullah* explores how locals view coalition military operations in Kandahar. The author argues that, from a Kandahari perspective, the coalition’s military operations seem to be failing. While noting that locals do not want coalition forces to leave, the author examines how the coalition could gain greater local confidence in its military campaign in the province.
*Zabih Ullah is a pseudonym. The author is a freelance journalist who was born and lives in Kandahar. He has also worked with local NGOs on peace-building issues for four years.
How Afghans view coalition military operations in Kandahar is the second in the Afghan Voices series of occasional papers. The goal of this series is to inject a range of Afghan views into the discussion of the key issues surrounding the international community’s intervention in Afghanistan. The series is edited by Dr Susanne Schmeidl, co-founder of The Liaison Office (TLO) in Afghanistan.
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Washington must deal with Arab reality
In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, writes that if the Mubarak regime falls in Egypt, the US would do well to embrace change, rather than resist it.
Australian Financial Review, 1 February 2011, p. 55
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Indonesia's Islamic courts
Western perceptions of Islam in Indonesia are often dominated by images of radical minorities seeking a shari’ah state. In reality, however, mainstream Islamic institutions have played an important part in the post-Soeharto process of democratisation and institutional reform. Among them are Indonesia’s Islamic courts, the Pengadilan Agama or Religious Courts.
In a ground-breaking new Lowy Institute Paper, 'Courting reform: Indonesia’s Islamic courts and justice for the poor', Cate Sumner and Tim Lindsey explore how the Islamic courts have embraced reform within a judicial system notorious for corruption and incompetence, taking the lead in efforts to deliver decisions that are more accessible, transparent and fair, especially for women and the poor.
To order a hard copy of this publication click here.
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Losing Turkey? Why Turkey's foreign policy is changing and what it means for the West
Against the background of increasingly strained relations between Turkey and the West, a new Lowy Institute Perspective examines the reasons for the recent, dramatic shifts in Turkey’s foreign policy. 'Losing Turkey? Why Turkey’s Foreign Policy is Changing and What it Means for the West' by Gwenyth Todd looks at a range of factors behind these shifts, from the growing assertiveness of Turkey’s AKP government to growing popular exasperation in Turkey at the country’s exclusion from the EU.
Gwenyth Todd is an international security consultant with extensive experience in Turkey, the Middle East and South America. Previously she worked at the Pentagon, advising Secretaries of Defense under George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton on defence matters involving Iraq, Kuwait, Turkey, Cyprus and South America. She also worked at National Security Council under President Clinton, where she served as Director for Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Libya.
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Six observations about Egypt's unrest
In an article in the ABC's The Drum, Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, provides six detailed observations about the political unrest in Egypt.
The Drum, 27 January 2011
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer presentation
The Obama administration inherited a complex and interrelated set of problems in the Middle East - a prolonged war in Iraq, Iran's quest for a nuclear weapon capability and a moribund Middle East peace process. On 13 October in our Wednesday Lowy Lunch series, Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer examined the U.S. administration's efforts to deal with these issues and the prospects for success.
His presentation can be heard here:
The Obama administration and the Middle East: After pushing the reset button, what next? - MP3 (21MB)
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Launch of 'Courting reform'
On Wednesday 8 December, Cate Sumner and Tim Lindsey launched their new Lowy Institute Paper, 'Courting reform'.
Opening remarks on the paper were provided by the Chief Justice of the Family Court of Australia, The Hon. Diana Bryant, and Chief Justice of the Federal Court of Australia, The Hon. Patrick Keane.
The launch presentations can be heard here:
Launch of 'Courting reform' - MP3 (21MB)
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A progressive case for Australia's Afghanistan mission
In an opinion piece on The Drum, Dr Michael Fullilove, Program Director Global Issues, and Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, make the progressive case for Australia’s Afghanistan mission.
The Drum Unleashed, 19 October 2010
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Will the Afghan government's reintegration and reconciliation efforts bring peace to Afghanistan?
The West Asia Program is a launching a new series of occasional papers entitled ‘Afghan Voices’. The goal of this series is to inject a range of Afghan views into the discussion of issues surrounding the international community’s intervention in Afghanistan.
The series is edited by Dr Susanne Schmeidl, co-founder of The Liaison Office (TLO) in Afghanistan. She has worked on Afghanistan since 2000 and managed the Swisspeace office in Kabul between 2002 and 2005.
In the first paper in the series, Wazhma Frogh examines, against the background of the recent ‘Peace Jirga’, the highly contentious issues of reintegration and reconciliation with the insurgency. She argues that unless the Afghan government enagages in a more comprehensive and sustainable effort to address the various cause of conflict in Afghanistan than it is currently undertaking, the prospects for a real and enduring peace and security will remain dim.
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Distinguished Speaker Series - Senator John Faulkner presentation
On Friday 16 July, Australia's Defence Minister, Senator John Faulkner, spoke at the Lowy Institute to discuss Australia's commitment and contribution to the ISAF effort in Afghanistan, in the context of Australian strategic objectives, operational developments and the challenge of capacity building.
His presentation can be heard here:
Afghanistan - Australia's commitment - MP3 (23MB)
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Analysing 'A Careful War'
 'A Careful War’ was a compelling two-part documentary program which appeared on the ABC’s Four Corners earlier this month. Distinguished reporter Chris Masters undertook a ground-level exploration of one corner of the Afghanistan conflict. Focusing on the work of an Australian mentoring company, the program delivered important and moving perspectives on this complex battlefront from the soldiers who are fighting and the people they are fighting for.
On 30 July Chris Masters delivered a public lecture on the documentary.
The lecture can be heard here:
Analysing 'A Careful War' - MP3 (21MB)
Or viewed by clicking on the image above.
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The New Middle East
In a new Lowy Institute Perspective, West Asia Program Director Anthony Bubalo explores two major changes that are creating a new Middle East: the end of American hegemony; and the economic and strategic reconnection of the Middle East to Asia. Bubalo explores some of the implications of this shift for Australian international policy, against the background of continuing community ambivalence toward the Middle East and to those issues that are part of the Middle East security equation, most notably, Afghanistan.
Anthony Bubalo's presentation at the launch of the paper on 28 April can be heard at:
http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=1283
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And then there's their battle back home
James Brown's opinion piece in the Sydney Morning Herald addresses the Australian public's engagement with the Afghanistan issue and the role of our defence forces there.
Sydney Morning Herald, 28 July 2010, p 11
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Horizontal Asia
Malcolm Cook and Anthony Bubalo recently published an opinion piece in Japan’s Asahi Shimbun looking at the implications of Horizontal Asia for Japan.
The article can be read at:
http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201005100305.html
Asahi Shimbun, 11 May 2010
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Justifying Afghan role a hard sell
In an opinion piece in The Age newspaper, Anthony Bubalo argues that Australia's defence force commitment in Afghanistan has bipartisan political support, while polling shows that public attitudes are increasingly against a continuing involvement. The government, Bubalo argues, has failed to present a compelling case for Australia's continued participation in the war.
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Food for Thought - Anthony Bubalo presentation
 For much of the twentieth century the West's conception of Asia largely focused on Northeast and Southeast Asia. For decades, this largely maritime and 'vertical' view of Asia accurately reflected the distribution of the region's economic and strategic power. But as the world enters the second decade of the twenty-first century this vertical view of Asia has outlived its usefulness, obscuring rather than illuminating emerging geo-strategic realities.
Anthony Bubalo's presentation can be heard here:
Horizontal Asia - MP3 (12MB)
A video of the presentation can be watched by clicking on the photo above.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Anthony Bubalo presentation
In 2006, at the height of the Israel-Lebanon war, former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice famously remarked that the world was witnessing the 'birth pangs of a new Middle East'. In this Wednesday Lowy Lunch Club, Anthony Bubalo, director of the West Asia program, critically examined Secretary of State Rice's prediction by exploring what has changed and what is changing in the world's most economically and strategically vital region. His Perspective on this subject is at: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=1285
His presentation can be heard here:
The new Middle East - MP3 (20MB)
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Ambivalence on the Middle East does not work
In an opinion piece in The Australian, West Asia Program Director Anthony Bubalo argues that Australia’s ambivalence toward the Middle East cannot last in the face of changes currently underway in the region.
The Australian, 3 May 2010, p. 16
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Horizontal Asia
Anthony Bubalo and Malcolm Cook from the Lowy Institute have published an article titled 'Horizontal Asia' in the April-May issue of The American Interest. The article argues that the rise of China and India and these two giants' growing ties with the Middle East are undercutting our traditional understanding of Asia.
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Interlocking crises strangle Middle East
In this opinion piece in The Australlian, Gilles Kepel, Philippe Roman chair in history and international relations at the London School of economics, and professor and chair in Middle East Mediterranean Studies at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris, writes that the Middle East has three linked problems to solve in its pursuit of stability and peace.
A presentation to the Lowy Institute by Gilles Kepel on the future of political Islam can be heard at: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=1272
The Australian, 8 April 2010, p. 8
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Confronting ghosts: Thailand’s shapeless southern insurgency
In this Lowy Institute Paper, Joseph Chinyong Liow and Don Pathan examine the ongoing violence in the majority Muslim Malay provinces of Thailand’s south. Through unprecedented fieldwork, the authors provide the deepest and most up-to-date analysis of the insurgency and problems the Thai Government faces in dealing with it.
Joseph Chinyong Liow is the Associate Dean at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and Don Pathan is a senior reporter at The Nation newspaper in Bangkok.
To order a hard copy of this publication click here.
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Distinguished Speaker Series - Professor Gilles Kepel presentation
The Lowy Institute for International Policy was pleased to host as a part of its Distinguished Speakers Series the renowned French scholar of the Islamic and Arab worlds, Professor Gilles Kepel. Professor Kepel spoke on the future of political Islam, examining the trajectory of both al-Qaeda’s brand of violent extremism as well as the challenges faced by mainstream Islamist movements seeking democratic openings in parts of the Islamic world.
Gilles Kepel is Professor at the Institut d'Études Politiques (Sciences Po) in Paris and Director of its doctoral programme on the Muslim World. He also currently holds the Philippe Roman Chair in History and International Affairs at the London School of Economics.
His presentation can be heard here:
The future of political Islam - MP3 (22MB)
A video is available by clicking 'More'.
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Horizontal Asia
In the latest issue of The Economist, Banyan, the Asia commentary, picks up on Anthony Bubalo and Malcolm Cook's Horizontal Asia article in the latest edition of The American Interest.
The article can be read at:
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15872888
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2010 Australia-UAE Dialogue
From 4 to 5 February 2010 the Lowy Institute for International Policy convened the second Australia-UAE Dialogue.
Photo: His Highness Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Hon Stephen Smith, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, speaking at an informal breakfast at the 2010 Australia-UAE Dialogue.
The bilateral relationship between Australia and the United Arab Emirates has grown dramatically in recent years. Today there are over 90 flights a weeks between the two countries, defence cooperation has expanded significantly and the UAE has become Australia’s 13th largest export market worldwide.
Against this background the Australia-UAE Dialogue brought together eminent figures from business and government in both countries to discuss options for enhancing bilateral ties and cooperation.
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Al-Qa'ida, tribes and instability in Yemen
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Sarah Phillips and
Rodger Shanahan discuss the re-emergence of a significant al-Qa’ida presence in Yemen. The authors focus on al-Qa’ida’s efforts to build relations with local Yemeni tribes, something that will be central to the movement’s prospects of cementing a long-term presence in the country. The authors point to the importance of undermining any potential nexus between al-Qaida and the tribes as critical to Western counter-terrorism efforts in the region.
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Not all tension in Turkey is West v Islam
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Non-resident Fellow Whit Mason argues that the Muslim-majority republic is faced with an ideological clash years in the offing.
The Australian, 25 March 2010, p. 8
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Obama's surge
In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, West Asia Program Director Anthony Bubalo considers the implications of President Obama’s decision to send additional US troops to Afghanistan. 'Obama’s surge: The United States, Australia and the second war for Afghanistan' discusses how shifts in US troops numbers and strategy, combined with the planned withdrawal of Dutch forces from Oruzgan, where the bulk of the Australian military force operates, raise a number of issues for Australian policy. It recommends an independent review of the factors that have contributed to improvements in Oruzgan’s security to date, greater flexibility in the way Australia deploys its military trainers and more effort to improve the effectivess of its civilian and diplomatic contributions to the war.
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Terror in capital brings fight to elite
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Non-resident Fellow Whit Mason writes that the latest Taliban attacks have blown up the illusion that Kabul is a safe haven.
The Australian, 20 January 2010, p. 8
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Winning the war on the home front
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, and Michael Fullilove, Program Director Global Issues, argue that Barack Obama’s Afghanistan approach is strategically and politically realistic.
The Australian, 11 December 2009, p. 8
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The Gulf states and Iran: robust competitors or interested bystanders?
In a new Lowy Institute Perspectives, Rodger Shanahan, non-resident fellow in the West Asia Program, examines relations between the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Iran. 'The Gulf states and Iran: robust competitors or interested bystanders' discusses how a complex mix of insecurity, economic interests, cultural ties and shared geography shape Gulf attitudes toward their large neighbour. This paper also examines the dilemmas facing Gulf states as they seek to balance conciliatory and confrontational approaches to Iran, particularly over the nuclear issue.
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Caught in the crossfire: the Pashtun tribes of Southeast Afghanistan
In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Tom Gregg argues the importance of a more effective engagement of Afghanistan’s tribes, particularly in the country’s south east. This could help improve stability in a strategically important part of the country and avoid a situation where local tribes were turned against the Afghan national government and international military forces operating in the region. 'Caught in the crossfire: the Pashtun tribes of southeast Afghanistan' recommends international assistance for efforts to reform the Afghan Ministry of Tribal and Border Affairs, the creation of a mechanism to deal with tribal grievances towards international military operations and the establishment of a Tribal Outreach Commission to build knowledge for, prioritise and manage tribal engagement at the local level.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Brigadier Phil Winter presentation
In Afghanistan, Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) are now the number one killer of coalition forces, and the 2009 campaigning season is seeing a record number of IED attacks. At this week's Wednesday Lowy Lunch, the Commander of Australia’s Counter-IED Task Force, Brigadier Phil Winter, described how Australia and its partners in Afghanistan are dealing with the lethal harvest of what Afghans are now calling the 'evil flowers'. Brigadier Winter's PM interview on the topic is at: http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2009/s2740062.htm.
His PowerPoint presentation can be downloaded here:
Stemming the 'evil flowers' - PPT (45MB)
His presentation can be heard here:
Stemming the 'evil flowers' - MP3 (19MB)
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Time to pay the full price in Afghanistan
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Whit Mason, a non-resident fellow of the West Asia program at the Lowy Institute, argues for offering sufficient rewards to attract and retain police, soldiers and civil servants in Afghanistan.
The Australian, 20 November 2009, p. 8
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One reason you shouldn't go to Afghanistan with a beard
In an opinion piece on ForeignPolicy.com, West Asia Program Director Anthony Bubalo and Susanne Schmeidl of the Afghan NGO The Liaison Office, argue that the United States and its allies will have to exercise more care in their use of Special Operation Forces if they are to win the hearts and minds of the Afghan people.
foreignpolicy.com, 3 November 2009
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Prof. Anthony Cordesman presentation
The war in Afghanistan and instability in Pakistan have become the defining foreign policy challenges for the Obama Administration. At this week’s Wednesday Lowy Lunch Club, Professor Anthony Cordesman considered these challenges in a discussion of US policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan.
His presentation can be heard here:
US policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan - MP3 (19MB)
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Idealism killing Karzai
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, argues that the West should cut the Afghan President some slack.
The Australian, 23 October 2009, p. 12
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - William Paterson presentation
At the Wednesday Lowy Lunch on 16 September, Australia’s Ambassador for Counter-Terrorism, William Paterson PSM, provided an overview of the terrorist threat in Southeast Asia against the background of terrorism trends worldwide.
His presentation can be heard here:
Terrorism in Southeast Asia - MP3 (19MB)
A transcript is available.
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West must grasp the nettle
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Lowy Institute Non-resident Fellow Whit Mason argues that the key to the success of the campaign in Afghanistan lies in changing leaders' calculations.
The Australian, 22 September 2009, p. 8
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Professor David Menashri presentation
The aftermath of Iran's Presidential election last July has plunged that country into internal turmoil. Mass popular protests not seen since the revolution in 1979, large-scale arrests and deep fissures within the Iranian regime have all brought into question the certainties of Iranian politics. Against this background the Lowy Institute is proud to host as a speaker at the next Wednesday Lowy Lunch Club a leading international expert on Iran, Professor David Menashri, to help understand how current developments in the country may play out and what impact they will have on Iran's foreign policy.
His presentation can be heard here:
Iran after the presidential election - MP3 (21MB)
Video of this presentation is also available.
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Between defiance and détente: Iran’s 2009 presidential election and its impact on foreign policy
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, 'Between defiance and détente: Iran’s 2009 presidential election and its impact on foreign policy', Iranian researcher Mahmoud Alinejad looks ahead to the Iranian presidential election on 12 June. He assesses the four candidates’ prospects and analyses the potential impact of the election on key aspects of Iran’s foreign policy, in particular the nuclear issue and relations with the United States.
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The West can win in Afghanistan
In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, and Michael Fullilove, Program Director Global Issues, argue that now is not the time to abandon Afghanistan.
Australian Financial Review, 28 July 2009, p. 63
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Anthony Bubalo presentation
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 3 June 2009, Anthony Bubalo, Director of the West Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, previewed Iran's presidential election on 12 June. He discussed what it will mean for Iran's foreign relations and in particular for the Obama Administration's efforts to engage Tehran.
His presentation can be heard here:
Iran goes to the polls - MP3 (20MB)
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The US and Iran: dare to dance
In an opinion piece in The Sydney Morning Herald, Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, argues that the outcome of Iran's presidential election could challenge the Obama Administration's hitherto cautious engagement of Iran, even if the outcome of the election does not have a substantive impact on key Iranian policies.
Sydney Morning Herald, 12 June 2009, p. 11
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Ambassador Martin Indyk presentation
On 27 May, the Lowy Institute was pleased to host, as part of its Wednesday Lowy Lunch series, Martin Indyk, who spoke on his new book 'Innocent Abroad: an Intimate Account of American Peace Diplomacy in the Middle East'.
Ambassador Indyk has a distinguished career in United States foreign policy and the Middle East. He is a Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC, and the Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy.
Ambassador Indyk's presentation can be heard here:
Innocent Abroad - MP3 (21MB)
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History of fear in a country of dust
In a major review essay in The Australian Literary Review, Lowy Institute Non-resident Fellow Whit Mason reviews three books on the conflict in Afghanistan.
Australian Literary Review, 3 June 2009, p. 10
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Inaugural Australia-UAE Dialogue
On Monday 23 March the inaugural Australia-UAE Dialogue commenced in Abu Dhabi, convened by the Lowy Institute for International Policy and under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces.
The two-day roundtable has brought together key opinion leaders and decision-makers from both countries representing government, business, the media and academia. Over four sessions Dialogue participants will discuss global economic and strategic developments and ways to enhance the bilateral cooperation in areas such as trade, investment, defence ties, climate change and higher education.
Please see the attached press release for more details.
Pictured at head of table: The Hon. Stephen Smith, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs and H.H. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, UAE Minister for Foreign Affairs.
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Nobody's client: the reawakening of Iraqi sovereignty
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Lydia Khalil explores the growing confidence of Iraq's government under Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki.
In 'Nobody's client: the reawakening of Iraqi sovereignty', Khalil describes the major shift that has taken place in Iraq's relationship with the United States and how today Baghdad is pursuing its own interests with much less regard for Washington's desires.
Lydia Khalil is a non-resident fellow in the West Asia Program at the Lowy Institute. She was recently appointed as an international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Prior to this Lydia was a counterterrorism analyst for the New York Police Department and a policy advisor for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad.
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Distinguished Speaker Series - H.E. Nuri al-Maliki presentation
On 13 March 2009, as part of its Distinguished Speaker Series, the Lowy Institute was pleased to host His Excellency Nuri al-Maliki, Prime Minister of Iraq. Prime Minister al-Maliki spoke about the future of his country and its prospects for political stability and economic development.
Prime Minister al-Maliki's presentation can be heard here:
The future of Iraq - MP3 (15MB)
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Putting the genie back in the bottle: ruling regimes and the new media in the Arab world
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis Australian journalist David Hardaker examines the growth and impact of the 'new media' - primarily the internet and satellite television - in the Arab world. He explores how autocratic regimes face a difficult challenge of reining in new electronic outlets for dissent while at the same time ensuring that their countries benefit from the global digital economy.
David Hardaker is a former award-winning Middle East correspondent for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. He speaks Arabic and has lived and worked in the Middle East for a number of years.
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Engaging Pakistan
The Mumbai terror attacks have once again focused attention on Pakistan's position as both a critical ally in the war on terror and a country in which a number of key terrorist groups have found safe haven. The international community faces a difficult dilemma in balancing demands that Pakistan do more to root out terrorist groups like al-Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Taiba, while protecting that country's fragile return to civilian rule. In this new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Claude Rakisits proposes a modest contribution that Australia might make toward building a more durable and productive relationship with Pakistan by broadening its engagement with key elements of Pakistani society beyond the military and intelligence elites that have traditionally been the focus of the West's ties with this strategically vital country.
Claude Rakisits is a Geneva-based Australian who heads an independent consultancy, Geopolitical Assessments.
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From Tyre to Tehran: transnational links amongst traditional Lebanese Shi'a clerical families
In December 2008, Lowy Institute Non-resident Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan delivered a paper at the Middle East Studies Conference in Washington on transnational links amongst traditional Lebanese Shi'a clerical families.
The paper is available for download here.
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Zealous democrats: Islamism and democracy in Egypt, Indonesia and Turkey
The question is often asked 'What will Islamists do to democracy?' But it seems equally valid to ask 'What might democracy do to Islamists?' In this new Lowy Institute Paper Anthony Bubalo, Greg Fealy and Whit Mason examine how three different Islamist movements, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the Prosperous Justice Party in Indonesia and the Justice and Development Party have sought to adapt to democratic politics and how in turn electoral or democratic participation has shaped the evolution of their ideology, policies and activism.
An executive summary of the Paper is available here. - PDF (147KB)
To order a hard copy of this publication click here.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Bubalo, Fealy and Mason presentations
At this week's Wednesday Lunch, the Lowy Institute for International Policy launched 'Zealous democrats: Islamism and democracy in Egypt, Indonesia and Turkey'. The authors of this new Lowy Institute Paper, Anthony Bubalo, Greg Fealy and Whit Mason, all spoke about their ideas expressed in the Paper.
Their presentations can be heard here:
Zealous democrats - MP3 (19MB)
A video can be seen on SlowTV at http://www.themonthly.com.au/tm/node/1381
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Appointments to West Asia program
The Lowy Institute is please to announce the appointment of two new Non-resident Fellows in the West Asia Program, Dr Rodger Shanahan (right) and Whit Mason (left).
For more details, please see the accompanying document.
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Bad moon not rising: the myth of the Shi'a crescent
Accusations that a Shi'a crescent is emerging in the Arab world following the rise of a Shi'a government in Iraq and the actions of Hizbullah in Lebanon, have provoked much discussion and highlighted fears of Iran's co-religionists gaining political power at the expense of the traditional Sunni leadership. In this new Analysis, Dr Rodger Shanahan examines the status of the Shi'a communities in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and argues that, rather than an emerging Shi'a crescent in the Gulf, there are simply differing national groups struggling to varying degrees to achieve political reform.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - David Hardaker presentation
Satellite television and the internet have broken Arab governments' stranglehold on information, forcing regimes to react in order to control a growing channel for organised dissent. At this week’s Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, acclaimed former ABC journalist David Hardaker explored how the 'new media' in the Middle East is changing Arab politics and what local regimes are trying to do to stop it.
The presentation is available here:
Genie out of the bottle - MP3 (20MB)
The Monthly's SlowTV hosts a video of this presentation here.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Lydia Khalil presentation
In the Wednesday Lunch on 24 September, Non–resident Fellow Lydia Khalil shared her recent experiences traveling and working in Iraq and Afghanistan and discussed how commonalities can be applied to successful stability operations in these and any other potential conflict zone.
Her presentation can be heard here:
Iraq and Afghanistan - MP3 (18MB)
The Monthly's SlowTV hosts a video of this presentation here.
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So what? Matching policy to Australian interests in West Asia
In a new Lowy institute Policy Brief, West Asia Program Director Anthony Bubalo argues that the evolution of Australian policy in West Asia (the Middle East and Southwest Asia) has lagged behind the maturation of Australian interests in this part of the world. 'So what? Matching policy to Australian interests in West Asia' discusses new elements to a reinvigorated policy framework, including an enhanced dialogue with key regional leaders, a strategic partnership with one or two key countries, the strengthening of non-military cooperation, the leveraging of the growing regional economic role of the Gulf to promote Australian trade, the greater use of multilateral and second-track diplomacy on issues such as energy security and Afghanistan, a greater on-the-ground development presence and an expanded national capacity to analyse and assess regional developments.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Ambassador Martin Indyk presentation
As the George W Bush Presidency draws to a close, attention is increasingly focused on the likely policies of his successor, particularly in the Middle East. The Lowy Institute was pleased to present at the Wednesday Lowy Lunch on 30 July 2008 a speaker eminently qualified to address this critical topic, Ambassador Martin S. Indyk.
Ambassador Indyk is a Director on the Board of the Lowy Institute for International Policy. He is the Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, and a former US Ambassador to Israel.
His presentation, 'US Middle East policy under a new president', can be heard here:
US Middle East policy under a new president - MP3 (19MB)
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Anthony Bubalo presentation
At the Wednesday Lowy Lunch on 23 July 2008, Anthony Bubalo surveyed the evolving strategic, political and economic landscape in West Asia, a region stretching from Pakistan and Afghanistan across to the eastern shores of the Mediterranean. Bubalo explored how key regional issues and developments, from the nuclear standoff with Iran to the growing financial power of the Persian Gulf's 'city states', will impact on Australian interests in this critical region in the years to come.
His presentation, 'Peace, proliferation and petrol prices: Threats, opportunities and Australian policy in West Asia' can be heard here:
Peace, proliferation and petrol prices - MP3 (19MB)
Map of West Asia - PPT (100KB)
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Hizbullah: walking the Lebanese tightrope
Hizbullah’s month-long war with Israel in 2006, its withdrawal from and effective blocking of the Lebanese government later that year, and its May 2008 armed takeover of West Beirut has shown how politically and militarily powerful this group is. As a consequence it is often held up as the exemplar of radical Islamist organisations. Despite this, some recent miscalculations have shown that even Hizbullah can be vulnerable politically. In this new Lowy Institute Perspectives paper, Chief of Army Visiting Fellow Rodger Shanahan argues that despite its recent successes, like all political parties it faces challenges in the future. Its ability to face these challenges will determine its future viability, but at the moment they are likely to remain a strong force.
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Non-resident fellow in the West Asia Program
The Lowy Institute for International Policy is pleased to announce the appointment of Lydia Khalil as a non-resident fellow in the West Asia Program. Lydia brings to the Institute a wealth of policy and research experience. A key focus of her work for the Institute will be on Iraq.
Lydia was recently appointed as a visiting fellow at Macquarie University’s Centre on Policing, Intelligence and Counterterrorism. Prior to this Lydia was a counterterrorism analyst for the New York Police Department and a policy advisor for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. She has also worked as a graduate fellow for the White House Office of Homeland Security and a senior policy associate to the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). Lydia holds a B.A. in International Relations from Boston College and a Masters in International Security from Georgetown University. She was born in Cairo, Egypt and is a native Arabic speaker.
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Why the Gulf matters:
crafting an Australian security policy for the Gulf
The imminent withdrawal of Australian combat forces from Iraq does not mean that the Arabian Gulf is peripheral to Australia's strategic interests. Australian forces have been deployed there regularly over the past 20 years, and Australia's and its main trading partners' energy requirements will increasingly be met from that region. In this new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Chief of Army Visiting Fellow Rodger Shanahan argues that Australia has permanent interests in the region and advocates the establishment of a strategic partnership with the United Arab Emirates.
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Indonesian Caravan
'Joining the Caravan? The Middle East, Islamism and Indonesia', Lowy Institute Paper 5, is now available in Bahasa Indonesia. Published in Indonesia by Mizan, 'Jejak Kafilah' was officially launched by paper co-author Dr Greg Fealy at the Indonesian Academy of Sciences (LIPI) on the 6th of February, 2008. The original English language edition was launched in 2005 and explored the impact of Islamist thinking and models of activism in Indonesia.
Copies of the Indonesian language edition can be obtained through the Indonesian distributor by emailing mizanmu@bdg.centrin.net.id.
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Not a fight to hedge on
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Anthony Bubalo and Rory Medcalf argue that while Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has made Australia's role in Afghanistan conditional, that country is far too important to abandon.
The Australian, 4 April 2008, p. 12
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The next bold stroke
In an opinion piece in the Sydney Morning Herald, West Asia Program Director Anthony Bubalo argues that a reputation for decisive action may prove a curse in these turbulent times.
Sydney Morning Herald, 28 March 2008, pp. 33
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Hawks see end is NIE
In an opinion piece in The Australian, Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, argues that the chances of a military strike against Iran are now more remote.
The Australian, 5 December 2007, p. 14
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Liquid terror
In a new Lowy Institute Perspectives, Waleed Aly explores the connection between international policy and domestic radicalisation.
A presentation to the Lowy Institute by Waleed Aly on this topic is available at: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=676
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Lawrence of Arabia is out of place in Iraq
In an opinion piece in the Financial Times, Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, argues against the current liberal usage of Lawrence's aphorisms to fit our own times.
Financial Times, 12 November 2007, p. 13
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Distinguished Speaker Series - Mr Ali Allawi presentation
On 5 November, as part of its Distinguished Speaker Series, the Lowy Institute for International Policy was proud to host Mr Ali Allawi, a former minister in interim and transitional Iraqi administrations and today a leading international commentator on Iraqi affairs. He is the author of the recently released and much-lauded book, The Occupation of Iraq: Winning the War, Losing the Peace (Yale University Press, 2007).
Mr Allawi spoke on the topic 'Centralism, federalism or confederalism? The options for Iraq'.
His presentation can be heard here:
The options for Iraq - MP3 (20MB)
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Despots, democrats and discontents
The Lowy Institute, in cooperation with the Sydney Democracy Forum, explored the state of West Asian democracy in a panel discussion held on Tuesday 2 October, 2007 at the Institute. The session compared and contrasted two different ends of the democratic spectrum in the region. It assessed the state of the region and the world’s largest democracy, India, and it explored democratic prospects in Egypt, a country that had, until recently, been lauded by the US government as an example of positive, if incremental, political reform. The session also explored the role of the international community in fostering democratisation in this strategically critical region.
The panel speakers were Anthony Bubalo, Niraja Gopal Jayal and John Keane.
The presentations from the seminar can be heard here:
Despots, democrats and discontents - MP3 (41MB)
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Iraq and Afghanistan
The Lowy Institute Voters' Guide to International Policy addresses the sort of questions we should be putting to our political leaders.
Section 5 of the Guide, 'Iraq and Afghanistan', by Anthony Bubalo, Program Director West Asia, is available here.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Whit Mason presentation
On 6 October, Pakistan, a nuclear power of over 160 million people riven by political and religious passions, goes to polls. At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 3 October, Whit Mason provided a preview of the elections and the challenges faced by incumbent President Pervez Musharraf, examining what is at stake in this strategically critical country.
Whit Mason is a writer and consultant on international affairs, who recently returned from Pakistan following a year-long assignment with USAID. Together with Lowy Institute Program Director Anthony Bubalo and ANU Indonesia specialist, Dr Greg Fealy, Whit is currently writing a new Lowy Institute Paper exploring the relationship between Islamism and democracy.
His presentation can be heard here:
The perils of Pervez - MP3 (19MB)
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What lies ahead? The Iraq war and international politics
Policymakers are understandably focused on the situation in Iraq, debating whether to withdraw troops or 'stay the course'. Yet even as the conflict continues to rage, it is important to start thinking about the war's broader impact on international politics. With this in mind the Lowy Institute publishes here the views of a range of specialists, including the respected American commentators William Kristol and Gideon Rose, on the likely impact of the Iraq war on the role of the US as a world power, on the Middle East and on Australia foreign policy.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Waleed Aly presentation
On 19 September at the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Waleed Aly, in a presentation entitled 'Liquid terror: the dynamics of home-grown radicalisation', examined the contentious issue of radicalisation in Western Muslim communities.
Waleed Aly was a board member of the Islamic Council of Victoria for over four years and comments frequently for the media on a range of issues relating to Islam and Western Muslims. In 2007, he was named one of The Bulletin magazine's 'Smart 100'. He is the author of the recently published 'People Like Us: How arrogance is dividing Islam and the West'.
His presentation can be heard here:
Liquid terror - MP3 (20MB)
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Distinguished Speaker Series - Dr Ezzedine Choukri-Fishere presentation
As a part of its Distinguished Speaker Series, the Lowy Institute for International Policy was proud to host Dr Ezzedine Choukri-Fishere, Counselor for Middle East Peace Process and Regional Security in the Cabinet of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Egypt. Dr Choukri-Fishere discussed Hamas' military takeover of the Gaza Strip and examined its implications for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
His speech can be heard here:
After Gaza: How to salvage the two-state solution - MP3 (19MB)
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Despots, democrats and discontents
The Lowy Institute, in cooperation with the Sydney Democracy Forum, explored the state of West Asian democracy in a panel discussion held on Tuesday 2 October, 2007 at the Institute. The session compared and contrasted two different ends of the democratic spectrum in the region. It assessed the state of the region and the world’s largest democracy, India, and it explored democratic prospects in Egypt, a country that had, until recently, been lauded by the US government as an example of positive, if incremental, political reform. The session also explored the role of the international community in fostering democratisation in this strategically critical region.
The panel speakers were Anthony Bubalo, Niraja Gopal Jayal and John Keane.
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US boosts military funding in the Middle East
Anthony Bubalo, Program Director, West Asia at the Lowy Institute, was interviewed on ABC Radio's The World Today program about the increase in funding by the US to its allies in the Middle East.
The interview is available at: http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s1992835.htm
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Iraq and its consequences
On Friday 29 June, the Lowy Institute for International Policy explored the longer term implications of the Iraq war in a conference entitle 'What lies ahead? The Iraq war and international politics'. The conference featured two leading American commentators, William Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard, and Gideon Rose, managing editor of Foreign Affairs, who discussed the consequences of the war for US power and policy.
The Lowy Institute gratefully acknowledges the assistance of the US State Department in providing the videoconference link for this conversation.
Hear their discussion at:
What lies ahead? - MP3 (28MB)
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Gaza policy just leads full circle
In an opinion piece for The Australian Financial Review, West Asia Program Director, Anthony Bubalo, explores the implications of Hamas' military takeover of Gaza.
The Australian Financial Review, 19 June 2007, p. 63
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A long hot summer
In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, William Maley and Daoud Yaqub explore the implications of the looming Taliban Spring offensive on the international reconstruction and security effort in Afghanistan. Maley and Yaqub argue that a more aggressive posture by Coalition forces toward the Taliban and more concerted international pressure on Pakistan are needed to ensure that Afghanistan does not once again become a safe haven for international terrorist organisations.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Professor James Piscatori presentation
On 30 May at the Wednesday Lowy Lunch, at 31 Bligh Street, Professor James Piscatori discussed Iraq and the future of political Islam.
Professor Piscatori is a Fellow of Wadham College, Oxford, Senior Tutor at the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies, and Visiting Professor at the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, ANU. His most recent work is Monarchies and Nations: Globalisation and Identity in the Arab States of the Gulf.
His presentation is available here:
Iraq and the future of political Islam - MP3 (21MB)
The text is also available for download:
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Daoud Yaqub presentation
On 28 March at the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Daoud Yaqub spoke on the topic: 'A long hot summer ahead for Afghanistan'. He discussed the looming spring offensive by the Taliban, including its implications for the reconstruction and security effort in Afghanistan, and what the international community needs to do to help the Karzai government meet this challenge.
Yaqub is co-author with Bill Maley of a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, 'A Long Hot Summer: Crisis and Opportunity in Afghanistan', available at: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=555
His presentation is available here:
A Long Hot Summer: Crisis and Opportunity in Afghanistan - MP3 (22MB)
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Success may bring dangers of its own
In this opinion piece in The Australian, Anthony Bubalo, Program Director for West Asia, writes that signs of an easing in the Iraq security situation raise questions about what would happen if the surge in US troops was a success.
The Australian, 20 March 2007, p. 12
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Interview: Anthony Bubalo
Anthony Bubalo was interviewed on ABC Radio National's PM program about the situation in Iraq on the fourth anniversary of the commencement of the war.
The interview is available at: http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s1877149.htm
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Reinventing 'West Asia'
In conjunction with the launch of the Lowy Institute's West Asia program, Anthony Bubalo, Director of the new program, argues why the Middle East and South Asia increasingly comprise one strategically coherent region, 'West Asia', and explores the policy significance of this for Australia.
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Anthony Bubalo presentation
On 21 February at the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Anthony Bubalo launched the Lowy Institute's fifth and newest program, the West Asia Program, incorporating the Middle East and South Asia. In his presentation Anthony explored the reasons why, today, it makes less sense to view these two regions separately, at least from a strategic perspective. He argued that the issues that increasingly gave 'West Asia' coherence as a single region were the same issues that were making the region an enduring part of Australia's strategic calculus.
Anthony's presentation can be heard here:
Re-inventing 'West Asia' - MP3 (20MB)
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Engaging Iran is risky, but confrontation is even riskier
In an op-ed in the Sydney Morning Herald, Lowy Institute Research Fellow Anthony Bubalo examines the implications of Washington's nuclear deal with Pyongyang for its efforts to deal with Iran's nuclear program and argues that the time is right for the US to start talking to Tehran as well.
Sydney Morning Herald, 15 February 2007, p. 13
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Wednesday Lunch at Lowy - Lowy Institute Scholars presentation
At the Wednesday Lunch at Lowy on 7 February, the Lowy Institute's scholars discussed what we should be keeping an eye out for in international policy in 2007.
Dr Michael Fullilove, the Program Director for Global Issues, discussed global trends and the United States. Mark Thirlwell, the Program Director for the International Economy, discussed some of the big questions facing the global economy in 2007. Anthony Bubalo, Research Fellow, examined the year ahead in the Middle East. Dr Malcolm Cook, Program Director Asia & the Pacific, predicted what will surprise us in East Asia and the South Pacific.
Their presentations can be heard here:
The year ahead - 2007 - MP3 (20MB)
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New rules for a new 'Great Game'
Energy insecurity, driven by high demand and uncertainty over supply, is fuelling a surging interest in equity in Middle East oil fields among major energy consumers, particularly in Northeast Asia. There is a risk that the resultant competition for oil and other energy resources in the Middle East will aggravate existing tensions or even create new conflicts. In a new Policy Brief, Anthony Bubalo and Mark Thirlwell argue that the G-20, meeting in Melbourne this weekend, should take a leading role in ensuring that energy insecurity does not become a global strategic problem.
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Summit should put economics back into oil
In this opinion piece in The Sydney Morning Herald, Anthony Bubalo and Mark Thirlwell, drawing on their latest Policy Brief, argue that this weekend's G-20 meeting is an opportunity to reduce political conflict over resources.
Sydney Morning Herald, 16 November 2006, p. 13
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Joining the caravan? The Middle East, Islamism and Indonesia
September 11 2001 and the Bali Bombing in November 2002 evoked images of a militant Islamist wave sweeping the globe from the Middle East, radicalising once peaceful Muslim communities around the world. A new Lowy Institute Paper by Anthony Bubalo and Greg Fealy critically examines the truth of this perception by exploring the impact a number of Islamist and 'neo-fundamentalist' currents from the Middle East have had in Indonesia.
To order a hard copy of this publication click here.
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Football diplomacy
While Australian governments have successfully built pragmatic ties with Asian leaders, a popular dimension to our engagement with Asia has in many respects been missing. This didn't matter greatly in the past, but today public opinion is increasingly a factor in foreign policy. A new opportunity to deepen people-to-people links with Asia has arrived in the form of Australia's recent admission into the Asian Football Confederation.
Drawing on ideas that emerged from the Lowy Institute's Football Diplomacy seminar last October, this Policy Brief examines how Australia can best use this new sporting relationship with Asia to enhance its regional image and engagement.
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Comrades on and off the pitch
In an opinion piece in today's Australian, Anthony Bubalo explains why Australia's entry into the Asian Football Confederation will revolutionise Australia's relations with Asia.
The Australian, 30 September 2005, p. 14
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Iran, the international community and the nuclear issue: where to next?
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Anthony Bubalo and Michael Fullilove examine the likely trajectory of efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear question, an issue that is likely to lead the international foreign policy agenda in 2006. The authors canvass a range of scenarios including IAEA and Security Council resolutions, sanctions and the unilateral use of force.
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Words find their mark in power stakes
In this opinion piece, Anthony Bubalo writes that Iran's outspoken President is taking on his enemies in the republic's establishment.
Sydney Morning Herald, 5 January 2006, p. 11
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Democratisation dilemmas in the Middle East
Islamist election victories in Iraq, Egypt and the Palestinian territories have intensified the controversy over whether Washington's democratisation push in the Middle East is transforming the region for the better or simply empowering America's enemies.
On 15th March 2006 at Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Ambassador Martin Indyk, Lowy Institute Board Member and Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Studies at the Brookings Institution and Anthony Bubalo, Lowy Institute Research Fellow, debated the pros and cons of the Bush Administration's great democratisation gamble.
Anthony Bubalo opened the debate.
Click on the link to listen to the debate now or right click to save the audio file.
Bubalo Indyk Debate - MP3 64K (30MB)
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Fuelling confrontation: Iran, the US and the oil weapon
In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, Anthony Bubalo, Michael Fullilove and Mark Thirlwell explore the prospect and implications of Iran's using oil as a weapon in its current confrontation with the international community over the nuclear issue.
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Asia's alliance with the Middle East threatens America
Anthony Bubalo explores an emerging web of ties between the Middle East and Asia that will have a profound impact on US power in both regions.
An edited version of this opinion piece was published in the Financial Times, 6 October 2005, p. 15
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Energy insecurity: China, India and Middle East oil
Anthony Bubalo and Mark Thirlwell examine China and India's growing thirst for imported oil, particularly from the Middle East, and consider some of the possible longer term strategic implications associated with this trend in a new Lowy Institute Issues Brief.
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Let's stop looking with stars and stripes in our eyes
Anthony Bubalo writes that Bush might have left his mark, but the shake-ups in the Middle East are not all about the US.
Sydney Morning Herald, 11 March 2005, p.11
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Why West should come to Islamist party
Greg Fealy and Anthony Bubalo argue that a fear of Islamist electoral victories should not be an obstacle to the West's support for democratisation in the Middle East or elsewhere in the Muslim World.
The Australian, 29 March 2005, p. 11
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Where to now on Iran?
On 30th August at Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Research Fellow Anthony Bubalo explored the likely trajectory of the international community's on-going dispute with Iran over its nuclear program, following Tehran's refusal to accept calls for a suspension of its uranium enrichment activities.
His presentation can be heard here:
Iran: Where to next? - MP3 (19MB)
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Israel's pursuit of Hizballah - opinion piece
In an opinion piece in the Sydney Morning Herald of 18 July, Anthony Bubalo, Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute, argues that Israel is pursuing a two-pronged strategy against Hizballah in Lebanon.
Sydney Morning Herald, 18 July 2006, p. 11
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US proposal for nuclear talks with Iran
In an opinion piece published on 2 June in The Sydney Morning Herald, Anthony Bubalo and Michael Fullilove examine the implications of Washington's surprise offer to negotiate with Tehran over the nuclear issue.
Sydney Morning Herald, 2 June 2006, p. 13
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The people have spoken: elections and the future of Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking
In this new Lowy Institute Perspective, Research Fellow Anthony Bubalo examines the results of recent Palestinian and Israeli elections and their implications for Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking.
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Israel's double disengagement
In an opinion piece published in the Sydney Morning Herald, Anthony Bubalo explores the implications of the Israeli election result.
Sydney Morning Herald, 30 March 2006, p. 13
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It's not necessary to go all the way with the USA
In this opinion piece, an edited version of which appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald on 9 March, Anthony Bubalo welcomes the elevation of the Middle East in the Australian government's strategic priorities, but argues this will require some deeper and innovative thinking on Australia's ties to the region.
Sydney Morning Herald, 9 March 2006, p. 13
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Wary watch on Hamas victory
Writing in the Brisbane Courier-Mail, Lowy Institute Research Fellow Anthony Bubalo examines whether any positives can be wrought from Hamas' landslide victory in last week's Palestinian elections.
Courier-Mail, 30 January 2006, p. 9
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A shrewd leader falls and suddenly the also-rans are leading the race
Anthony Bubalo writes in this opinion piece that the charisma and political wiliness of Ariel Sharon are difficult acts to emulate.
Sydney Morning Herald, 6 January 2006, p. 9
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Iranian nuclear program the world's next hot potato
Despite Iran's claim of not developing weapons, defusing its nuclear ambitions may be the defining item on next year's international policy agenda, suggest Michael Fullilove and Anthony Bubalo in this opinion piece.
The Australian, 20 December 2005, p. 12
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Israel's pragmatic hawk makes a dovish move
In this opinion piece, Lowy Institute Research Fellow Anthony Bubalo writes that Ariel Sharon's latest ploy should be viewed in a positive light.
Sydney Morning Herald, 24 November 2005, p. 15
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The day after
Anthony Bubalo considers what is at stake in this week's unilateral withdrawal by Israel from Gaza and parts of the West Bank, and ways that the international community, including Australia, can help make the process a success.
An edited extract of the following piece appeared in the Australian Financial Review on Tuesday 16 August.
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Blair's front line
In this article, two Lowy Institute analysts examine the implications of the London bombings. Anthony Bubalo and Dr Michael Fullilove, respectively the research fellow and program director for global issues at the Institute, argue that in terms of both explanations for and implications of the bombings, attention needs to be directed at home in Britain as well as abroad.
The Australian, 9 July 2005, p. 22
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Building a democratic Palestine: an Australian contribution to legal and institutional development in the Palestinian territories
Legal and institutional reform in the Palestinian territories is a critical and often overlooked component of the effort to reach a peaceful settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. This Issues Brief by Anthony Bubalo explores the importance of such reforms in the context of current efforts to end violence against Israel and provide Palestinians with greater confidence in their economic and political future. It argues that Australia should join other donors in contributing what assistance it can to help Palestinians strengthen the rule of law and build strong public institutions.
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War or peace: a struggle for peace continues
Anthony Bubalo writes on what the future holds for Palestine without Yasser Arafat.
Sundey Telegraph, 14 November 2004, p. 93
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Beyond Arafat
Anthony Bubalo, research fellow, argues that Yasser Arafat's death could have longer term positive implications for both Palestinian political reform and efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but in the short term the impact will be more limited. Arafat's immediate successors will not be able to end the current chaos in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Nor are the fundamentals of the current impasse with Israel likely to be overcome.
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Arafat's death wouldn't solve main problem
Anthony Bubalo, research fellow at the Lowy Institute, assesses the implications of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's looming death on both the internal Palestinian situation and efforts to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Australian Financial Review, 8 November 2004, p. 63
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Step back and take a look at the smaller picture
Anthony Bubalo and Michael Fullilove argue that Australia's response to the Jakarta embassy bombing should not emphasise global considerations at the expense of regional factors.
Sydney Morning Herald, 11 September 2004
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Putting terrorism into perspective
In an opinion article Anthony Bubalo welcomes the Federal Government's release of a white paper on terrorism as an important contribution to the public discussion of this critical issue. That discussion needs, however, to go beyond the parameters of the white paper to a consideration of where terrorism is situated in the broader spectrum of strategic challenges that we face.
Sydney Morning Herald, 16 July 2004
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Israel's withdrawal from Gaza: a role for Australia?
This paper explores the possibility that further Australian military forces will be sought for the Middle East, in this case for a peacekeeping force in the Gaza Strip.
Despite the defeat of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan for a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in a Likud Party referendum, the Israeli public will continue to press for a withdrawal, and, in all likelihood, it will occur. But the withdrawal process itself raises a number of questions and it is likely that international assistance, in the form of a small peacekeeping force, will be required. If this occurs, Australia may be sought out as one of only a few countries whose contribution would be acceptable to Israel and the Palestinians.
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