Publications

Global macroeconomic consequences of pandemic influenza

Professor Warwick McKibbin

Summary

In a major new Analysis, Professor Warwick McKibbin and Dr Alexandra Sidorenko explore the implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak on the global economy.

Their paper examines a range of scenarios (mild, moderate, severe and ultra) that span the historical experience of influenza pandemics of the twentieth century.

Their analysis finds that a pandemic would be expected to lead to: a fall in the labour force; an increase in the cost of doing business; a shift in consumer preferences; and a re-evaluation of country risk.

The paper finds that even a mild pandemic has significant consequences for global output, costing the world 1.4 million lives and approximately US$330 billion in lost output.

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The 2010 Lowy Institute Poll

The sixth annual Lowy Institute Poll surveys Australian public opinion on a range of foreign policy issues. New questions this year cover the Rudd Government’s handling of foreign policy issues during its first term in office, whether Australia should develop nuclear weapons, attitudes towards Indonesia and US power, sanctions against Fiji and the morality of Australia’s foreign policy.

The Poll also repeated questions asked in previous years, revealing trends in public opinion on topics such as climate change, Australia’s military involvement in Afghanistan, and attitudes towards the United States and China.

A panel discussion about the poll can be heard here:
The 2010 Lowy Institute Poll - MP3 (23MB)Download item (1.3MB)

Power and choice: Asian security futures

Recent events in the seas off South Korea and Japan emphasise the fragility of Asia’s security order and the strains the region’s changing power distribution are placing on it. A new major Lowy Institute Asia Security Project report, 'Power and Choice: Asian Security Futures', analyses the likely security futures for Asia and Australia and recommends steps countries should take to ensure growing regional competition does not lead to conflict. This report was made possible by the generous support for the Project by the MacArthur Foundation.

A copy of the report, launched by Dennis Richardson, AO, the Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade on 1 June, can be downloaded here.Download item (6.5MB)