Despite repeated evidence of failure to forecast, there is a surprisingly strong consensus regarding the most likely future shape of the world economy. This paper describes this ‘consensus future’ and reviews some of the key building blocks, sketching out a possible picture of the world economy in 2025. It also highlights some of the key risks to these forecasts.
‘All of which gives us a world in 2025 that is richer, older, more populous and more urbanised. It’s also a world where the centre of economic gravity has shifted (further) to the developing world, and where the world’s largest economies are increasingly middle-income countries.’
Our consensus future, p 10