The Fix: Your Foreign Policy Watch List

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Scot Marciel is a quiet American in the very best sense. He’s also the author of the finest book on American policy towards Southeast Asia I’ve ever read. Released just a few months back, Imperfect Partners: The United States and Southeast Asia is Marciel’s memoir of his time as US Ambassador to ASEAN, Indonesia and Myanmar, and on various roles in Washington in between. The book has been my close companion of late, and it defies the erstwhile truth that such tomes must be achingly dull bromides of conventional pieties, and/or self-justifying celebrations of the author’s own actions and wisdom. Marciel’s book is nothing like that. It’s frank, genuinely wise, at times funny, and full of revealing anecdotes on a great many key players – from Yudhoyono to Aung San Suu Kyi, Thaksin Shinawatra to Trump.  

I write for @TheAtlantic about the scourge of hostage diplomacy and why financial deals only serve to fuel and incentivise Iran's hostage-taking further. https://t.co/mAKvgcDbzi

— Dr Kylie Moore-Gilbert (@KMooreGilbert) August 27, 2023

Given my recent experiences, I was much taken last week with the story of the release of what were effectively American hostages by Iran, in exchange for the unblocking of more than $US6 billion in frozen Iranian assets. At over $1 billion for each hostage, it was not surprising that the deal quickly became ensnared in Washington’s deeply partisan politics. Finding reasoned analysis on the issue was thus difficult but, wonderfully stepping into the breach has been Australia’s own recent prisoner of Iran, Dr Kylie Moore-Gilbert. In various media across the week, Kylie highlighted the awful timing of the deal (coinciding with the one-year anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s “morality police”, all for the crime of allegedly not wearing her head scarf properly), and the fact that the price for future hostages had now risen dramatically, while compassionately noting the joy the release brought to the hostages and their families. Deep waters, expertly navigated.

With little new to engage me on the TV, and with the crushing disappointment of Netflix’s The Diplomat seared into my brain, recently I’ve returned to the guilty pleasure of binge-watching The West Wing. This relentlessly optimistic vision of what US politics might look like if saints took up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is easily mocked. But turn the captions on and you’ll get some of the best dialogue ever written for the screen, as well as some still funny and unashamedly “inside the beltway” jokes. Clouded as it might be these days, the City on the Hill can still be imagined.

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With daily headlines carrying stories of record heatwaves, out-of-control bushfires, plastic-choked oceans and drowned baby penguins, it’s easy to feel despondent about the state of the global environment.

So, it’s always refreshing to find voices that focus on solutions. After listening to Bill Gates speak at the Lowy Institute earlier this year, I picked up his book How to Avoid a Climate Disaster. You don’t need to be a climate scientist to enjoy it: Gates has a knack for explaining the complex science of climate change in simple terms, before setting out a range of solutions – including decarbonising our energy, food and transportation systems. Gates admits that he doesn’t have an answer to the politics that have so often hindered global action, but as a technologist’s look at the solutions we need, his book is just the antidote to the apocalyptic news cycle.

What else can we do? Plenty, according to the ABC’s War on Waste. Host Craig Reucassel delves into global environmental problems at a local and individual level, offering practical solutions to how each of us can reduce our ecological footprint. He covers issues such as plastic over-consumption, recycling systems, and reducing food and fashion waste. If you, like me, have ever wondered what happens to your recycling after collection, it’s worth a watch. And it’s an eye opener on how seemingly small individual choices can have implications on a societal scale.

On foreign policy, I thoroughly enjoyed this recent interview on the life diplomatic with my friend and former colleague Jeremy Dicker. Jeremy left the Australian foreign service earlier this year and is now the managing editor of International Intrigue, a quick, sharp and cheeky daily digest of geopolitical developments targeted to the time poor.

I’ll come clean, though. With a toddler at home, my “most viewed” items have nothing to do with foreign policy, geopolitics or climate – it’s The Wiggles, followed closely by the delightful Bluey. I’m still relatively early into my dadding journey and have found Hamish Blake’s podcast How Other Dads Dad a constant source of gems. It’s a funny and insightful look into the life-changing, joyful and often chaotic experience of parenthood. After a week thinking about the big issues in foreign affairs, it’s a good reminder of why it all matters.

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I jetted off to New Zealand last month to speak on geopolitics and artificial intelligence at a conference. For inspiration on how to articulate the ensuing impacts of this Promethean moment, I turned to the past, specifically to Henry Kissinger who turns 100 this year.

Despite being well past retirement and with his legacy under perpetual scrutiny over his actions in Cambodia, Chile, Argentina and Vietnam, Kissinger is still actively engaged in the current policy debates, particularly around technology and its impacts on national governments and geopolitics. Five years before the release of ChatGPT, he wrote in The Atlantic about how generative AI would bring to an end the Age of Enlightenment and would later go on to co-author a book on the subject. In a recent wide-ranging CBS television interview, Kissinger warns about an AI arms race and the impossibility of retaining human control of AI.

To forestall panic about the impending singularity, I’ve turned to others such as Gary Marcus in his new podcast series Humans vs Machines for a more balanced take on the future of AI and its capabilities.

As a child of 1990s America, I grew up during the golden age of hip hop, watching how niche party tricks from DJs and MCs in the Bronx such as Kool Herc, Grand Master Flash and Afrika Bambaatta turned into a cultural behemoth that transformed American – nay, global – mainstream culture. It’s wild that this year marks the 50th anniversary of that genre with many of the 1990s' biggest hip hop names now in their 50s and 60s. Dr Dre even appeared on a mock cover of a senior citizens magazine – which I guess gives new meaning to the term “old head”. So to mark the anniversary, I’ve been reminiscing with Fresh Air’s replay of a series of interviews with hip hop pioneers (and how in high school I saved to buy a pair of Timberlands to go with my jean overalls – one clasp undone of course).

I was also struck by how so much of the lyrics and rhetoric of what was then dismissed as gangsta rap foreshadowed the central message of the Black Lives Matter movement around police brutality and systemic racism. Like hip hop, BLM started in the United States but soon spread and influenced the globe, seeding its own local interpretations and movements. (Though, as Lil Wayne, illustrates, not all of hip hop is an ally of the movement.)

And absent new releases due to the writers and actors strike – largely over concerns about how the creative industry has been and will be impacted by AI – I’ve been hate-watching Billions, which snuck through production before the shutdown. The dialogue is too clever, it has improbable plot turns and unlikeable characters – but this campy, cut-rate Succession still serves to remind how money flows and global finance influence global affairs and power politics just as much as diplomats and generals.

Speaking of the one percent, hip hop generated multiple billionaires and multi millionaires – from The aforementioned Dr Dre, to Rhianna, Diddy, Jay Z, Russell Simmons, 50 Cent and Ye among others. Does this illustrate the commodification of culture under the insatiable appetite of global capitalism? Or how hiphop was always the pitch perfect amalgamation of capitalism and art? Given the number of hip hop references in Billions, I’m thinking the later.

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Indonesia’s diplomacy is often regarded as not forceful enough, particularly about South China Sea disputes. When the Chinese survey vessel Haiyang Dizhi Shihao manoeuvred near an Indonesian oil rig inside the Indonesian Exclusive Economic Zone of the North Natuna Sea for almost a month in 2021, many analysts attributed Jakarta’s mute response to its economic relations with Beijing.

But an interesting new article by Damos Agusman, a former chief legal adviser at the Indonesian Foreign Ministry, published by the Indonesian Journal of International Law, reveals Indonesia's strategy behind the silence.

“The Chinese view was always silent if not ambiguous and was designed to be that way,” Agusman writes about the boundaries of China’s notorious “nine-dash line”. And while Indonesia’s “silent response” in turn invited criticism, observers missed what he describes as the “smart tactical approach taken by Indonesia”.

Contrary to public expectation, which tends to expect Indonesia to take a confrontational response to China’s illegal activities, the final outcome of this standoff is surprisingly in favour of Indonesia's legal position. It could represent the Javanese saying of ‘menang tanpa ngasorake’, which means winning the war without shaming the enemies.

Indonesia made its priority completing the drilling project conducted by Premier Oil Company under Indonesia’s license, rather than resorting to “megaphone diplomacy” as had been done previously and the resulting tension would only favour China. Instead, Agusman writes, “success could demonstrate that Indonesia persisted [with] its legitimate rights to drill in the Natuna waters.”

It’s a fascinating contrast with the experience Agusman describes for Vietnam in a similar situation when the Chinese Coast Guard intruded on oil exploration in Vanguard Bank, off Vietnam’s southeastern coast. Hanoi decided to respond in a confrontational manner, only for the oil drilling company in Vietnam to decide to leave the project.

In Indonesia’s case, the goal was to see the oil exploration continue so as to assert its legal rights. Premier Oil successfully completed its exploration despite the intrusion from the Chinese survey vessel as well as coast guard ships. And this strategy might also go some way to explaining the decision to conduct the forthcoming ASEAN joint military drills in the North Natuna Sea, to strengthen Indonesia’s position against China’s claim of its nine-dash line without having a direct confrontation.

Sometimes it pays to put away the loud hailer.

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I’ve found my end-of-week treat, and it’s shareable.

Having spent my days leading up to Friday reading all things foreign policy and the Pacific, by the end of the week it’s a pleasure for the eyes to switch to a different mode to watch the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s (ABC) The Pacific.

Hosted by Johnson Raela and Alice Lolohea, at just 28 minutes long, each episode is a bus-ride home – you might even squeeze in two.

They cover Pacific politics and other stories capturing the attention of the region. From a vote of no confidence in Vanuatu, would-be assassins planning a hit-job on former Samoan Prime Minister Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi, Fiji’s first all-female professional tuna fishing crew, and the Pacific’s digital divide, to the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility scheme and the pressure it places on families and marriages.

What I love most is that after a week of mostly listening, reading, and talking to people about the region, this brings it all to life for me.

Episodes don’t last online forever though – after a few weeks they go to the archives, so you’ve got to watch it regularly. Whoops – ABC have since got in touch to point out that full episodes and segments are available on its Facebook page. And after a long week at work, it might just be the thing you’re after.

And why not take a musical interlude? Charles Maimarosia – raised on a remote village on Malaita in Solomon Islands, is considered a cultural ambassador for his songs about customary knowledge. Get a taste of his music watching this live performance at Federation Square, Melbourne.

If you’re still after a good book though, Unsung Land, Aspiring Nation should be up next on your table. Gordon Peake is a great writer – he can make you laugh and cry all in the one chapter. And much like The Pacific, he brings the story of Bougainville and its challenged nation-building process to life.

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What does Anna Funder’s new book Wifedom have to do with climate finance and Indo-Pacific development?

I did not ask myself this question when I bought Wifedom, and frankly I did not particularly care. I loved Funder’s previous two books Staziland and All That I Am and that was enough for me to cast aside the (literal) mountains of PhD and work reading I have, sitting in various parts of my house, and buy her part memoir/part historical fiction/part biography take on George Orwell’s wife, Eileen O’Shaughnessy.

But the more I read of Wifedom (which is a magnificent book technically and conceptually), the more I reflect on how dissecting the credibility of the stories and narratives we are told is increasingly important in the modern age. It can also be a powerful tool for righting historical injustice. Funder’s forensic examination of how Orwell obscures Eileen’s central role with the Workers’ Party of Marxist Unification, or POUM, in his 1938 Homage to Catalonia is a case in point.

This was also top of mind when reading this excellent blog from the ADB on why the term “natural disasters” should be taken out of use for failing to recognise the social, political, environmental, and economic context of disasters. It spurred me to re-read some prized sections of one my favourite books on narrative framing, Merchants of Doubt, by historians Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway, which explores the influence of industry scientists in spreading misinformation on the health impacts of smoking and the science of climate change.

I’ve also watched the Women’s World Cup with most of Australia. As a former SBS employee who loves the world game, there has been a lot of personal joy in seeing the Matildas’ win over the hearts of Australians, not as wives, or mothers or objects of sexual desire, but as strong, resilient, and collegiate role models. And if Ellie Carpenter happens to read The Fix – you’re my 11-year-old daughter’s hero!

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Nothing is as it seems in Australia’s closest neighbour, Papua New Guinea. Just last month the United Nations Population Fund revised down its estimate of PNG’s population from 17 million to 11.8 million, which finally sits comfortably with the PNG government. That’s a walloping 5.2 million revision by the UN. And even then, no one really knows the exact number of people in the country.

Another contentious issue is mapping. Before the elections last year, PNG rushed through seven new voting districts. Although the Electoral Commission released new district maps individually, it failed to publish a new national map. Now, thanks to the Australian National University’s CartoGIS department, we have a map that reveals an estimated size of the new districts.

The map itself has a few quirks. PNG’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is drawn weirdly – particularly in the south-west where PNG shares maritime borders with Australia and Indonesia.

Generally, EEZ boundaries are defined as up to a 200 nautical mile buffer from a nation’s territorial sea. According to this map, PNG owns a strip of ocean jutting out well into what might be considered Australian and Indonesian territory. This appears not to be a fault of PNG, but a consequence of how Australia and Indonesia’s EEZs and marine parks are drawn.

Finding an accurate map is important, particularly concerning security as Australia and the United States work toward security pacts with PNG. The United States signed a defence cooperation agreement with PNG in May, and Australia is close to putting pen to paper on one with PNG as well. PNG is courting other nations, too, with Narendra Modi (India), Joko Widodo (Indonesia), and Emmanuel Macron (France) all visiting Port Moresby in quick succession.

As geopolitical competition over PNG grows, so must the accuracy of knowledge about the country. Otherwise, all assessments will be founded on guesswork.

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Recently, I was driving from Sydney to Canberra and got stuck in traffic – a three-hour trip turned into five. It was a good opportunity to dive in and listen to the Statecraftiness podcast series hosted by Gordon Peake (author, development practitioner and globetrotter), produced by the University of Adelaide.

It is an excellent exploration of how states attempt (often unsuccessfully) to leverage government engagements to gain access and influence in the Pacific region. The podcasts cover a broad range of topics from strategic scholarships, defence partnerships, and aid alliances to “loan rangers”. There are insightful and often humorous anecdotes to illustrate how a country might get access, but not influence. The podcasts made an excruciatingly slow drive slip by quite enjoyably.

On the reading front, I like to curl up and lose myself in historical fiction and the best escape this year is The Bookbinder of Jericho by Pip Williams (same author as The Dictionary of Lost Words). It has absolutely nothing to do with the Pacific Islands nor foreign policy – and yet it does. 

The inspiration for the story was a couple of photos of the women bookbinders during the First World War. Williams wanted to know more but found the record of lower-class women’s contribution during the war was missing from historical narratives. She tells a riveting story of different women’s experiences and their struggles to change the system that holds them back, interwoven with insights about war and human relationships. Makes you reflect on your own practice and the analytical gaps you may be leaving in your social and historical analyses.

Finally, I’m off to the movies to catch some of the Scandinavian film festival. Plenty to pique your social, historical and travel interests. Who can resist an escape to the northern reaches of Europe – ikke mig!

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If you’re seeking to unravel the complexities of the global semiconductor industry, look no further than Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology. Authored by historian Chris Miller, this book brilliantly dissects the ongoing power tussle between the US and China over this crucial technology. Released just as the Biden administration introduced export controls to curb China’s high-end chip industry, Chip War offers a timely and insightful analysis of this critical issue. It’s a standout in the realm of foreign policy literature and provides an essential backdrop for the policy dilemmas that the Lowy Institute’s John Edwards raises in a recent analysis.

Together, these two resources offer a comprehensive understanding of the semiconductor industry and its geopolitical significance. Short, sharp, and packed with knowledge.

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Anyone who followed the captivating Ben Roberts-Smith defamation trial will enjoy journalist Nick McKenzie’s Crossing the Line, which provides an insiders take on the accusations against the former SAS solider, the high-profile trial, and the pressures of conducting investigative journalism in Australia. I took McKenzie’s advice on Twitter to grab the book “before the next legal challenge sees it pulled” – an effective marketing strategy!

In a different vein, I enjoyed Elise Hu’s Flawless, an eye-opening examination of the culture and politics of the Korean beauty industry. It did help me understand why, of all the places to which I have travelled, it’s only Seoul that I returned from with a suitcase heaving with skin care products.

My favourite new podcast If Books Could Kill skewers non-fiction airport bestsellers. The best episodes target some of the most infamous international politics texts such as the End of History and Clash of Civilisations, which – despite their obvious flaws – continue to find prominent places on undergraduate reading lists.

Finally, on a nautical theme [Eds note: Told you], I’m part way through Isaac Kardon’s exceptionally well-researched China’s Law of the Sea, a must read for those seeking to understand maritime disputes in East Asia and how China seeks to assert itself as a great power.