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Is India's economy taking off?

Is India's economy taking off?
Published 13 Feb 2015   Follow @SamRoggeveen

On 2 February, Lowy Institute economist Leon Berkelmans said revised Indian GDP calculations suggested that:

...if we were to take these numbers at face value, then India is growing almost as fast as China. India could be the next hot economy. These revisions have made me more optimistic that the future is indeed bright, although I remain cautious.

Now I see the Wall Street Journal is reporting that:

...recent recalculations indicate that India has already dethroned China as the world’s fastest-growing big economy. Late Monday, India’s statistics ministry surprised economists when it unveiled the new numbers for the growth of India’s gross domestic product. It ratcheted up India’s GDP growth figures using a new methodology that pegs expansion in Asia’s third-largest economy at 7.5% last quarter and 8.2% the quarter before that. Economists and the ministry, using the old methodology, had originally said growth was closer to 5.5% during those quarters.

Important caveat:

Of course, China’s economy is still four times the size of India’s. “There’s no comparison between these growth rates because of the size of the economy of China,” said Ashish Kumar, director general of the Central Statistics Office as he announced the new GDP growth numbers.  “If this kind of growth continues and China continues to perform at a lower level, then still it will take 20 to 30 years to catch up.”

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