Here's entrepreneur and thinker Peter Thiel in conversation with economist Tyler Cowen:
I would bet on globalization slowly being in abeyance. I think with the benefit of hindsight, we will realize that 2007 was not just the peak year of the finance boom, but also the peak year of globalization, like maybe 1913. Happily, it hasn’t resulted in a world war, at least not yet, but I think we are in this period where globalization is steadily pulling back.
China is hard to evaluate on this globalization metric, because on some level, the growth story is linked to exports and globalization. Then at the same time, it has these capital controls and all of these ways that it’s somewhat separate. I find it always very hard to evaluate. I do think it’s interesting that the questions about China are being asked less often in the US today than they were a decade ago.
In 2005, it was a very widespread question, in what year will China overtake the US? A decade later, it’s reasonable to think that it’s a decade closer to when this will happen. It’s a much less commonly asked question. At the end of the day I suspect we are underestimating China, but it may be very hard to invest.
I’ve always thought that you could only participate in the Chinese boom if you are a well-connected, card-carrying member of the Chinese Communist Party. I’m not, and so it’s not been a place that I’ve really focused that much.
The whole interview is worth watching (above) or reading.