Bringing together the best longer Interpreter articles you were too busy to read this week.
This week the Lowy Institute hosted both the Prime Minister of Italy, Matteo Renzi, and the Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel. Both these visits followed the conclusion of the G20 Brisbane Summit and major speeches in Australia by President Barack Obama, President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, among others. It has been busy. Here Lowy Institute Fellow Sam Roggeveen reflected on the 2014 Lowy Lecture by Chancellor Merkel:
I think that what we tend to look for in political leaders is not so much intelligence but wisdom, and Merkel's was on display in the Q&A, where she cautioned patience on Europe's response to the crisis in Ukraine. As someone who saw Germans give up hope of their country ever being reunified, she said we ought not to be too pessimistic about future change in Russia's attitude. But it might take some time for Europe's most powerful tool, its economic might, to take effect. The only danger for Europe is that it becomes divided in the meantime.
Sam also pointed to the global goodwill that Merkel has personally developed, and what this could mean for Germany:
It seems to me that, were Merkel to embrace this opportunity, it could raise her country's standing in world affairs to something unprecedented in the post-war era. For instance, is it really so far-fetched to imagine Merkel taking the leading role in international climate-change negotiations? Her country has diplomatic heft and green-energy credentials. And, if I'm right, Merkel herself has the personal profile to give such an initiative real stature.
Chinese President Xi Jinping's speech before the Australian parliament on Monday, along with the announcement of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement, has provoked considerable debate. Kerry Brown provided a first take on Xi's speech:
But Xi has made it clear that there needs to be more diversification, and one of the routes to diversification is finance and services. Xi's recognition of Australia as a place where this sort of business can be done for Chinese today is a big deal. Now it is up to us to re-imagine our relationship with China along lines that are broader than just exporting resources and foodstuffs. If we go this way, we are pushing on an open door.
Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Malcolm Cook talked about how the FTA busted several myths about Australia-China relations:
The second strategic myth is that closer relations with the US, to which the Liberals are seen as being more prone than Labor, are detrimental to Australia's key relationships in Asia. Australia's Asian engagement policy would benefit from a more 'autonomous' and 'independent' relationship with the US and its ally Japan, it is argued.
The most sustained and inaccurate criticism of the Abbott Government's foreign policy is that closer relations with Japan and the US will undercut relations with China, with Beijing likely to impose costs on the bilateral economicrelationship. The exact opposite now seems to have occurred, with the signing of the historic Japan-Australia FTA earlier this year clearly an important late-term stimulus to the decade-long China-Australia trade talks.
Hugh White responded:
As Malcolm Cook says, this week's events show that Tony Abbott's strategic policies in Asia have not got in the way of his economic agenda. Mr Abbott has won his free trade agreement with China despite his enthusiastic alignment with Japan and America to resist China's regional ambitions. So those, like me, who thought it might be otherwise have been proven wrong.
Hugh White layed out three possible explanations for why President Xi Jinping has 'been so warm and generous' to Prime Minister Abbott, when 'Mr Abbott has so deliberately opposed himself to China's interests and ambitions'. Malcolm Cook provided a fourth option:
Rather I think Option 4 — China's primary motivation for signing the trade deal with Australia is its global (not regional) trade diplomacy strategy aimed at domestic structural reform – is the most compelling. In this case, China is telling the truth when it says its foreign policy is primarily driven by the domestic concerns of a developing, previously centrally planned, economy in rapid transition.
Newly appointed Director of the International Economy Program at the Lowy Institute, Leon Berkelmans, made a compelling argument for treating the new FTA with some scepticism(part 2 of his post is here):
In any case, suppose we take the report at face value. The modelling suggests the agreement will boost GDP growth by 0.04% per year for 10 years. Trend GDP growth is around 3% per year, so 0.04% really does not look like much. In fact, at trend growth, that is how much the economy grows in 5 days. Let me emphasise this point: it is not that the FTA is worth 5 days' worth of output. It is worth the difference between GDP today and GDP in 5 days' time. We should all just calm down a little bit.
President Obama's speech at the University of Queensland on Saturday covered a wide range of topics, including climate change, human rights, the Asia Pacific rebalance and China's economic development. Rory Medcalf with a first impression on the strategic aspects of the speech:
Which brings us to China. Sensibly, Obama's speech today did not directly challenge the legitimacy of the Chinese political system, in the way that his strong words in Canberra did just three years ago ('prosperity without freedom is just another kind of poverty').
Still, he did not resile from upholding values of democracy, freedom and human rights – linking them with themes of opportunity, innovation and youth - and pointedly included a reference to Hong Kong alongside Asia's democracies.
In these times when a rules-based liberal global order is under challenge from forces variously of destabilization, disorder, authoritarianism and sheer barbarism, Obama's Brisbane speech may not prove historic, but it has at least held the line. With clarity and conviction about the staying power of democracies, British Prime Minister David Cameron did at least as much in addressing the Australian Parliament yesterday.
Hugh White argued that the speech was tough on China:
However, that matters much less than how the Administration sees Asia and China. Obama spoke more positively than he has done before about China's economic achievement and its significance for the welfare of the people of China, and of course he referred to the deal with Beijing on carbon emission targets. But he more than matched that with a distinctly adversarial tone in describing America's differences with China.
The last occasion when there was a serious public rupture in the alliance came with Bill Clinton's refusal to provide American ground troops in East Timor in 1999. Notwithstanding the fact that US logistical, intelligence and diplomatic muscle were crucial ingredients in the success of that mission, both John Howard and Alexander Downer made the point to American leaders at the time that, given Australia's support for the US in various wars over the previous half-century, Canberra could have reasonably expected the participation of a few Marines. Downer's remarks at the time on CNN invited a personal phone call of complaint from then Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.
If Australia had adopted a more positive approach well in advance of the summit, rather than conveying an impression that it was doing everything possible to avoid the mention of climate change in Brisbane, it could have latched onto the US-China deal on emissions and presented the Brisbane G20 Summit as an important step in building momentum for next year's UNFCC negotiations.
So for all the good work Australia did as G20 chair in 2014 and the substantial outcomes from the Summit, it missed an opportunity for Brisbane to be presented as a major success across all fronts, rather than being overshadowed by the US-China agreement.
It's a pity, because in every other way Australia had a successful G20 year.
In a personal reflection on the feeling in Brisbane during the G20, Hugh Jorgensen provided some colour:
Otherwise, the only really noticeable human activity going on within the vicinity of the Summit site are 6000 sweaty police, a handful of Falun Gong protesters, and a lone monk bearing a placard asking G20 leaders to give peace a chance. I have heard there are a few hundred protesters across the river near City Hall, but as today's mercury moves up to a sweltering 35 degrees, I sympathise with anyone who can think of somewhere better to be that is not in Brisbane's willpower-draining sun.
Danielle Rajendram wrote on Prime Minister Modi's important visit to Australia:
Closer relations with Australia also tie into Modi's broader vision for India's role in East and Southeast Asia. The Modi Government has devoted considerable effort to deepening its partnerships in the region as part of its recently enhanced 'Act East Policy'. Focusing on key partners such as ASEAN, Japan, Vietnam and Australia, the Modi Government has signalled its intention to play a greater role in the region, potentially acting as a counterweight to Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. If it is able to carefully manage Chinese sensitivities (no mean feat), cautious Indian engagement has the potential to act as a stabilising force in the region.
Peter was never idle. Usually when I saw him he was on the run from A to B delivering medical supplies to whoever needed them. He never had any money of his own; he spent all his resources assisting others. On the odd evening when he did take a break he was to be found in deep conversation with someone about his work or an issue he felt strongly about. He lived out his beliefs with an authenticity that is unusual. Peter was charming, eloquent, intelligent and highly passionate. It was the last trait that got him into trouble.
But the thing that clouds judgments about what constitutes a good or a bad deal, the thing that makes this complex technical negotiation even more complicated and makes the atmosphere around the negotiation highly charged, is that for each of the protagonists — the Rouhani Government, its domestic opponents, the Obama Administration and key regional players such as Israel and Saudi Arabia — the talks are a proxy for their broader objectives.