Middle East

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China’s rising interests in Qatar

It has been a year since Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt severed diplomatic ties with Qatar. Saudi Arabia and the UAE led the boycott, instituting an economic and trade embargo that isolated Qatar by air, land, and sea from its neighbours, sternly restricting Qatari-bound

By Anas Iqtait

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Understanding what is important

I am very grateful to the authors who engaged so thoughtfully with my Lowy Institute Paper, Remaking the Middle East. Their articles raised many important points, not all of which are possible to respond to in this reply. I agree with Lydia Khalil that what’s missing at the moment in the Middle

By Anthony Bubalo

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Challenges mount up

Across the Arabic-speaking world, repression comes naturally to regimes under threat, be they governments, patriarchs of families, or other holders of privilege. Within the realm of government and security apparatuses, and even beyond such circles, there is deep anxiety about the question of

By Bob Bowker

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Risk and reward in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict

After 70 years of waiting, Israel has finally achieved the international recognition it has long sought for Jerusalem as its capital. Though only a handful of staff will work from there initially, and no major nations are likely to relocate their own embassies any time soon, the opening of a United

By Dave Sharma

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Trump's goal is regime change

Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Lydia Khalil

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Method in Trump’s madness on Iran

There has been widespread condemnation of US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, including from Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who expressed “regret”. Besides having ramifications for US relations with European powers, Russia and China, who all

By Lavina Lee

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Can Europe salvage the Iran deal?

Trump finally did it: in perhaps one of the most ridiculous moves of his presidency (although competition on that front is fierce), he announced that his administration would remove the US from the Iran deal and reimpose all nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. This is not only a gross violation of

By Dina Esfandiary

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Trump’s Iran decision: one reckless act must not be followed by others

US President Donald Trump’s decision to walk away from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – comes as no surprise, since he’s been threatening this for some time. To renege on a joint commitment not only with Iran but also with the EU, Russia, and

By John Carlson

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How political crisis in Armenia could upset Russia and Turkey in Syria

Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan has been ousted only six days into his term, and protests have been voluntarily suspended while the National Assembly decides on his successor. But political uncertainty in Armenia jeopardises a fragile ceasefire with Azerbaijan over an

By Luke Dawes

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I (nearly) ran Iran

Between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu beaming six-foot-tall PowerPoint slides declaring “IRAN LIED” into people’s homes via television, and President Donald Trump’s new national Security Adviser penning a New York Times op-ed titled “To Stop Iran’s Bomb

By Rodger Shanahan

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Power of youth

Research on the Middle East, where wars are being waged between and within all sides, is already rich with discussion about where things have gone wrong. Arguably, Anthony Bubalo’s Remaking the Middle East provides an unpopular future perspective amid the more racy and immediate

By Hafsa Halawa

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Iran’s May Day

The deadline looms for the Iran nuclear deal. US President Donald Trump will have to decide by 12 May whether to continue to waive sanctions against Iran under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). What Trump will do is unclear, and his intention was clouded even more by

By Rodger Shanahan

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Trouble ahead

Anthony Bubalo’s optimism about the Middle East’s future is grounded in the notion that spontaneous cultural, social, and entrepreneurial initiatives that emerge across the region will provide the momentum and drive necessary for positive change. While what he dubs as “green shoots” are

By Shahram Akbarzadeh

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Remaking the Middle East

How a troubled region may save itself

By Anthony Bubalo

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Decay and new growth

In his latest Lowy Institute Paper, Remaking the Middle East, Anthony Bubalo deftly weaves together the various threads that have made and unmade the modern Middle East, positing that the 2011 Arab uprisings were not brought about by individual conflicts, trends, or political actors, but rather were

By Lydia Khalil

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Europe: the movers and the shakers

The way in which the European Union and its member states responded to recent strikes by the US, France, and the UK on Syrian chemical weapons targets very clearly exposes the strengths and weaknesses of European power. One or two Europeans are movers, but most are shakers. When it came down to

By David Ritchie

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As threats to Trump mount, allies must uphold the Iran deal

It’s not every day that a former director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, America’s premier law-enforcement body, calls the sitting president of the US “morally unfit” to hold office. Yet that is what James Comey did on Sunday in a wide-ranging interview with ABC News

By Barbara Slavin

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Syria strikes: mission accomplished?

The US military claims the ability of the Syrian regime to use chemical weapons has been set back “for years” following strikes on Saturday. Given it is just one year since the US last struck Syrian targets following a chemical weapons attack, the latest claim won’t wash for many.

By Daniel Flitton

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In Syria, Trump must collude with Russia

President Donald Trump is under enormous pressure to respond militarily to the latest provocation by the Assad regime, but he would do so against all of his instincts and earlier pronouncements to end US military involvement in the Syrian war. Just days before the chemical attacks in Douma,

By Lydia Khalil

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Rouhani, Erdogan, and Putin’s bizarre love triangle

It appears a new regional security order is encircling Syria as the civil war grinds into its seventh year. This shift was visible last week, when the leaders of Turkey, Iran, and Russia met in Ankara to discuss solutions to the Syrian crisis. The detailed talks covered de-escalation zones

By Wayne McLean

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The world according to Mohammed bin Salman

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been on an extended tour of the United States, trying to present a friendly face to the American public and bring them on side in the same way he’s won over the Trump administration. This began with a 60 Minutes extended interview

By Rodger Shanahan

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The rationale for Egypt’s military spending spree

Incumbent President of Egypt Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was re-elected for a second term in last week’s presidential election, winning 97% of the vote. Facing myriad internal and external security challenges, Sisi vowed to safeguard Egypt’s security during his election campaign. The country

By Casper Wuite

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Sifting evil intent from charities doing good

The nexus between charitable aid and terrorism is a delicate and often difficult subject to discuss, let alone research. Some troubling relationships do exist, but the number of charities involved is small relative to the vast number of organisations doing good work. Although the sums

By Rodger Shanahan

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Carrots and sticks in the Iran nuclear deal

In January, US President Donald Trump’s frustration with the Iran nuclear deal got the better of him as he set a 12 May deadline for its renegotiation. But meeting this goal is impossible in the current environment. As a result, in an unnecessary and counterproductive move, it looks like the US

By Dina Esfandiary

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The resurgence of Al-Qaeda

Nearly seven years after the killing of Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda is numerically larger and present in more countries than at any other time in its history. Indeed, the movement now boasts of some 40,000 men under arms, with approximately 10,000–20,000 fighters in Syria; 7000–9000 in

By Bruce Hoffman

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Charities and terrorism: Lessons from the Syrian crisis

Terrorists have manipulated the humanitarian crisis in Syria to create a cover for foreign fighters and to raise funds for terrorist groups under the guise of charitable donations

By Rodger Shanahan

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The pain of hearing: Australia’s parliament recognises Yazidi genocide

Last week in the Australian Parliament, the House of Representatives agreed to a motion recognising the ISIS-perpetrated genocide of the Yazidi community in northern Iraq. The motion was the last in a suite of three from both houses of parliament calling for the investigation and prosecution of

By Susan Hutchinson

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To Russia: a plea of caution on Syria

The recent UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution for a 30-day ceasefire in Syria was arguably a vital step towards the delivery of much-needed humanitarian aid to 5.6 million Syrians deemed in “acute need”. Yet shortly after the resolution was unanimously adopted, the Syrian Government

By Melinda Rankin

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What’s in a (street) name?

Bilateral disputes can often have a semi-amusing side when grown adults, who should know better, throw playground insults seeking some form of populist electoral response. Then New Zealand prime minister Robert “Piggy” Muldoon’s reaction to cricket’s famous 1981 underarm bowling

By Rodger Shanahan

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Russia a reluctant driver in the Syrian war

As we witness the slaughter of civilians in yet another part of Syria – most recently, the Damascus suburb of eastern Ghouta – the country appears to enter the endgame of the confrontation between the regime and an array of rebel groups. But new battles await. Syria is increasingly

By Joost Hiltermann

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The depressing sameness of the fight for Ghouta

A little over a year ago, after the fall of eastern Aleppo in Syria, I asked “What exactly did the defence of East Aleppo achieve?”: Surely it was apparent from the time the encirclement was completed and the attempt to break the siege failed that only one outcome was possible: the defeat

By Rodger Shanahan

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Back to the Syrian (un)civil war

Originally published in The Australian.

By Rodger Shanahan

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The spectre of a divided Yemen

After the Houthi–Saleh coalition collapsed and former President Ali Abdullah Saleh was killed in December, it didn’t seem as though the conflict in Yemen could get any more complicated. Barely two months later, however, another one of Yemen’s coalitions has imploded. On 27 January, intense

By Alexander Harper

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Syria: a plan to name and shame chemical weapons suspects

Last month, France hosted the launch of the International Partnership against Impunity for the Use of Chemical Weapons. The effort is aimed at holding to account individuals and groups in the Syrian Government responsible for chemical weapons attacks, and to deter any possible further use of

By John Hart

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Shot down over Syria

The downing of a Russian Su-25 aircraft this week marks the second aircraft lost to MANPADS surface-to-air missiles in six weeks. At the end of December, militants shot down a Syrian L-39 aircraft near Hama. Russia’s response has been swift and severe, conducting multiple

By Rodger Shanahan

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Exposed! Australia’s secret war plans to attack Iran! (Maybe)

Among the range of sensitive government documents in the 'Cabinet Files' release last week, a list appeared with reference to a secret report intended for Australian eyes only, titled "Bilateral Planning with the United Arab Emirates on the defence of the UAE in the event of Iranian Hostilities

By Rodger Shanahan

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Washington's weak hand to play in Syria

With the change of administration in Washington came new clarity about US policy on Syria. The admirable, short-term aim was to defeat ISIS. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the organisation that would produce this outcome on the ground, was founded in late 2015 (the '

By Rodger Shanahan

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Erdogan’s outbursts symbolic of Turkey’s decline

Turkish President Recip Tayyip Erdogan did not mince his words after news of a US-backed Syrian Border Defence Force (SBDF) emerged. The SBDF would consolidate numerous militia groups in Northern Syria, including the predominantly Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), into a unified and

By Wayne McLean

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Putin’s ‘Mission Accomplished’ moment

Politicians have a track record of declaring military victory before it is achieved. Think the 'Mission Accomplished' banner unfurled behind George W. Bush aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln on 1 May 2003, after which the war in Iraq continued for another eight years, claiming

By Rodger Shanahan

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Iranian protests pose little threat to Rowhani or Khamenei

Originally published in The Australian (Photo: Getty Images

By Rodger Shanahan

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Russia is not really withdrawing from Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin was reported this week to have ordered Russian military chiefs to redeploy ‘most’ of Russia’s Syria contingent back home. Exactly what constitutes ‘most', though, is anyone’s guess. There are reports that Russia

By Rodger Shanahan

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Nations align in the fight for Syrian peace

Originally published in The Australian

By Rodger Shanahan

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Congress considers the Iran nuclear deal

The US Congress could scuttle the nuclear deal with Iran this week. But it's unlikely to do so. Donald Trump has railed against the deal since his campaign. In a speech on 13 October, Trump said 'the Iran Deal was one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever

By Dougal Robinson

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Jerusalem: Trump’s roll of the dice

Donald Trump’s decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is many things, but it is best to begin with two things that it is not. First, it does not preclude Jerusalem also becoming the capital of a future Palestinian state as well as the state of Israel. Many Israelis and Jews

By Anthony Bubalo

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Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh: the demise of a great survivor

Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh, one of the Middle East’s great survivors, is dead. He led a charmed existence in public life for nearly 40 years, most of that time as Yemen’s president, although that nearly came to an end in 2011 when he was seriously wounded by a bombing at the presidential

By Rodger Shanahan

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The role of Sinai’s tribes in Egypt’s counter-insurgency campaign

Friday's attack on a local mosque in Bir al-Abd that killed at least 305 people will stand as the deadliest terrorist attack in Egyptian history. In a televised speech immediately after, President Abdul Fattah el-Sisi 'vowed revenge' and promised to respond with an 'iron fist' and 'brute force'.

By Casper Wuite

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Saudi desperation as Yemen campaign stagnates

The 4 November missile launch by Houthi rebels in Yemen towards the Saudi capital Riyadh prompted an unexpectedly harsh response. Almost immediately, the Saudi-led coalition announced a complete land, sea and air embargo on Yemen. The Saudis have since reopened air, land and sea access to ports

By Alexander Harper

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Navy fails to exercise common sense with Saudi boarding party

Images of Australian and Saudi sailors conducting a joint boarding exercise in the Red Sea in August illustrate just how easy it is for the military to become entangled in political controversies in the Middle East unless on high alert for possible compromise. Saudi Arabia is leading a coalition

By Rodger Shanahan

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The smugglers of Musandam

In 2017 the waters of the Persian Gulf are still choppy. There is US President Donald Trump's choice to decertify the Iran nuclear deal, Iran's bluster under President Hassan Rouhani and ongoing US efforts to end the dispute between several Gulf states and Qatar. One group of

By Alexander Balas

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The puzzling demise of Lebanon’s Sa’ad Hariri

Amid the political carnage visited upon the upper levels of the Saudi polity last week was the fall from high political office of another Saudi citizen, none other than the Lebanese prime minister Sa’ad Hariri. The public resignation was aired on Saudi-owned al-Arabiyya television. There was and

By Rodger Shanahan

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