Middle East

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Book review: Saudi Arabian Foreign Policy: Conflict and Cooperation

As a scholar of contemporary foreign policy in Saudi Arabia, I am starkly aware of the decoupage nature of researching in the field. Work detailing the external relations of the Gulf state is spread across an eclectic array of individual journal articles, book chapters and conference papers, with no

By Ben Rich

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'First we take Aleppo, then we take Idlib'

The gradual isolation and strangulation of Aleppo is part of a much broader strategy that has taken shape over the past year, albeit in the case of Aleppo on a much different scale. The actions follow a familiar pattern: encirclement; cutting off military and life support functions; limited

By Rodger Shanahan

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'If the aim is to save civilian lives, rebels must leave Aleppo'

In an opinion piece in The Australian, Rodger Shanahan writes that rebels need to concede Aleppo to save civilian lives. Photo: Getty Images/Anadolu Agency

By Rodger Shanahan

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Quick comment: Rodger Shanahan on why rebel forces should leave Aleppo

It's time for the international community to put pressure on rebel forces to leave Aleppo, says Lowy Institute Research Fellow Rodger Shanahan. As Syrian government forces and allies gain ground in the battle for Syria's largest city, more than 250,000 civilians are under siege in the remaining

By Emma Connors

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Egypt back on the brink

Six years after the revolution in Egypt that demanded bread and social justice, the country is on the brink again. With inflation at a seven-year high, a foreign exchange crisis that has led to food shortages, and debt and the deficit rising, the country is facing its worst economic and financial

By Casper Wuite

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Retaking Raqqa: Facts on the ground

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has turned from a state of strength, expansion, and influence to a position of fragility, weakness, and retreat. As the Iraqi forces encircle Mosul, ISIS’s last stronghold in Iraq, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have announced the launching of an

By Anas Iqtait

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Trump and the Iran nuclear deal

The election of Donald Trump raises many uncertainties about the future direction of US foreign policy, including nuclear weapons and nuclear non-proliferation. A major aspect of this is the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), concluded between

By John Carlson

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A very Lebanese presidency

Whenever I think the Australian political scene has plumbed new depths of hopelessness I can always be reassured that at least we haven’t reached the level of bloody-mindedness and self-centredness that marks out Lebanese politics. After 29 months without a president, a parliamentary vote

By Rodger Shanahan

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Retaking Mosul will be hard, but Raqqa will be harder

Today Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop observed that the Mosul offensive is an 'important milestone' in the battle against Islamic State; there is no doubt retaking the city would seriously dent both IS capabilities and morale. But it would not be a fatal blow. The Iraqi Army and its

By Lauren Williams

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Good options in Syria don't exist

Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Rodger Shanahan

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Syria needs the best of the West's diplomats, not lawyers

Getting the US and Russia to work together in Syria was always going to be difficult. Now it looks as though a diplomatic solution was from the start a mirage at best and a trick at worst. Almost every day brings news of the further breakdown in US-Russia relations. As the death toll from Russian-

By Matthew Dal Santo

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Foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq: The day after

In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Research Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan and Nonresident Fellow Lydia Khalil argue that an increasing number of foreign fighters are likely to leave Syria and Iraq in the coming months and years, especially after the collapse of Islamic State’s caliphate, exacerbating

By Lydia Khalil, Rodger Shanahan

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Did Saudi Arabia just side with China on the South China Sea?

'His highness criticised the actions of the United States in the South China Sea, describing such measures as being in conflict with Chinese and Saudi interests.' This was the last line of an otherwise unremarkable article published last week in the Saudi newspaper, al-Watan. The Highness referred

By Anthony Bubalo

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Where the Russian intervention in Syria is headed

Russian President Vladimir Putin is well on the way to achieving several objectives of his military intervention in Syria. Russia has ensured the survival of the Assad regime, its only Arab partner, without loss of Russian personnel to the rebels or becoming mired in a ground conflict. In doing so

By Ian Parmeter

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Iran and Russia: Not an easy relationship

Iran’s relationship with Russia has been characterised as many things, ranging from a ‘marriage of convenience’ to a ‘long-lasting alliance’. In reality it's a pragmatic working relationship forged between two countries that have faced similar political and economic pressures

By Dina Esfandiary

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Confronting Turkey: The looming challenge for the West

Turkey’s relations with its Western allies and partners, with the lone exception of Netanyahu’s Israel, are on a steep slide towards open hostility. Millions of first and second generation Turks live and work in Europe as either refugees or as guest workers and it is geographically too close not

By Daniel Woker

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Syrians between a rock and a hard place on Turkey coup

Mohammed — not his real name — is a Syrian opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad. In 2013, he fled to Turkey with his young family. A little over a week ago, he among the first out in Istanbul streets, waving the Turkish flag in support of President Recep Erdogan in the wake of the

By Lauren Williams

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Major political change on the horizon for Turkey

In one poorly organised show of lukewarm force, Turkey’s failed coup plotters have provided President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with the catalyst for major political change. For Erdogan, it vindicates years of conspiratorial rhetoric around the ‘deep state’, which prompted two high-profile

By Wayne McLean

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Reset: Why Erdogan is mending (some) fences

Economics and ethnic solidarity both played a role in the rapprochement reached between Israel and Turkey and economics is also a motivating factor in Turkey's recent overtures toward Russia. There is a reason why Turkish President Recep Erdogan refers to a 'common history and common culture'

By Mehmet Ilhan

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Turkey: Erdogan's focus on Kurdish threat no longer flies

Terror has once again struck in Turkey. Tuesday's coordinated attack by three suicide gunmen at Istanbul's Ataturk Airport killed 44 people and injured around 240. It was the latest in a string of terror attack in Turkey in the past year, and a worrying demonstration of the country's deepening

By Lauren Williams

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Turkey: Erdogan poised for triumph in feud with PM

Turkey's ruling party, the AKP, announced last week that it would hold an 'extraordinary congress' on 22 May where Ahmet Davutoglu would be replaced as prime minister. The announcement follows a year of growing friction between Davutoglu and President Recip Tayyip Erdogan after the June 2015

By Wayne McLean

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Quick comment: Indonesian students in Egypt and Turkey

In this quick comment, the Lowy Institute's Anthony Bubalo and his co-authors, Sidney Jones and Navhat Nuraniyah from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict, discuss their recent Lowy Institute Report that examines the effect of the current turmoil in the Middle East on Indonesian

By Emma Connors

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Indonesian students in Egypt and Turkey

In this Lowy Institute Report, Lowy Institute Deputy Director, Anthony Bubalo, together with Sidney Jones and Nava Nuraniyah from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict in Jakarta examine the effect of the current turmoil in the Middle East on Indonesian students studying in Egypt and

By Anthony Bubalo, Sidney Jones, Nava Nuraniyah

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EU-Turkey deal: Coming to terms with the 'appification' of migration

The EU-Turkey deal has been widely criticised for being potentially illegal and immoral as well as unworkable. Others have pointed to the grubbiness of the negotiations and the willingness of the EU to compromise its values in order to secure a deal with Turkey in an attempt to stem what are

By Marie McAuliffe

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Syrian Kurds declare autonomy but remain trapped by regional power games

Since the reversal in 1923 by its nationalist leader Mohamed Kemal Ataturk of an earlier western-backed scheme for Kurdish independence, Turkey has done anything it could — diplomatically, militarily and politically — to prevent Kurdish autonomy taking root in Syria. Now, the Kurdish-controlled

By Bob Bowker

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Saudi Arabia goes to war

Saudi Arabia's recent actions have caused a great deal of anxiety within its region. On 4 February, a military spokesman suggested that Saudi Arabia was ready to send troops ground troops to fight ISIS in Syria. A week later Saudi Arabia announced that it will send combat aircraft and soldiers

By Yiftah Shapir

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Islamic State propaganda and the mainstream media

In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Lauren Williams examines Islamic State’s use of the Western media to disseminate its propaganda. Williams argues mainstream media outlets have a responsibility to treat Islamic State-produced material more critically, expose the weaknesses of its messages, and

By Lauren Williams

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Syria: The gift that keeps on giving

The official announcement today that the government would refuse a US request for additional assets to be deployed in the Middle East against Islamic State came as little surprise. These types of requests rarely come out of the blue, and it is likely that Washington was aware of what Canberra’s

By Rodger Shanahan

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Saudi royals send a message

Saudi royals send a message Rodger Shanahan The Australian 8 January 2016

By Rodger Shanahan

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Iran has more at stake in Syria than America and its allies

Iran has more at stake in Syria than America and its allies Rodger Shanahan The Australian 4 January 2016 Click here for the online text

By Rodger Shanahan

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Turkey has got Syria wrong Â again

The shooting down of the Russian aircraft by the Turks and the subsequent death of two Russian servicemen briefly got the tabloids talking about World War III but in reality this was never going to blow up into a direct military confrontation between Moscow and Ankara. What it did demonstrate, once

By Rodger Shanahan

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Decision to keep Syria running was a masterstroke

Decision to keep Syria running was a masterstroke Rodger Shanahan The Australian 20 November 2015

By Rodger Shanahan

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Russia's Syria operation reveals significant improvement in military capability

Although relatively small in scale, Russia's military operation in Syria has highlighted some major improvements in Russian military capabilities. Compared to the 2008 Georgia War, which was the last time the Russian Air Force operated in a combat environment, the Russian

By Dmitry Gorenburg

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How Iran became the first beneficiary of Russia's Syria Intervention

The first tactical victory emerging from Russia’s intervention in Syria came not on the al-Ghab plain in Syria’s Hama province or around Syria’s divided commercial capital of Aleppo. Rather it came at the end of last month in the peaceful surrounds of Vienna. It was there

By Rodger Shanahan

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Looking for leadership in the Arab Middle East

In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Research Fellow Associate Professor Rodger Shanahan examines how Arab Gulf States, led by Saudi Arabia, are responding to the Obama administration’s less interventionist approach to the Middle East by adopting a more assertive regional policy aimed at containing

By Rodger Shanahan

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Radicalisation woes still here

Radicalisation woes still here Rodger Shanahan The Canberra Times 27 October 2015

By Rodger Shanahan

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Assad's Moscow cameo shows that Russia wants a deal

This week, unexpectedly, Syrian President Bashar Assad turned up in Moscow. He hasn't been seen outside Syria since unrest broke out four years ago. The trip makes two important statements. The first is that, thanks to Russian air strikes, the Syrian state — the actual Syrian state

By Matthew Dal Santo

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On Syria, the West must face facts: Russia can help

Western analysts have been at pains to discern Russia's 'real aims' in Syria. But the best explanation probably remains the simplest: the preservation of the existing Syrian state and its institutions in pursuit of a political settlement that limits the amount of Syrian territory under

By Matthew Dal Santo

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Putin’s gambit changes game

Putin’s gambit changes game Alan Dupont The Australian 9 October 2015

By Alan Dupont

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Neighbours share responsibility for Syria's morass

Neighbours share responsibility for Syria's morass Rodger Shanahan The Australian 6 October 2015

By Rodger Shanahan

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Syrian refugee crisis: Time for the G20 to step up

By the Lowy Institute's G20 Fellow Tristram Sainsbury and Research Associate Casper Wuite. Chatham House's Paola Subacchi recently asked why the G20 has not addressed the Syrian refugee crisis. She acknowledges that refugee issues have not historically been within the G20's bailiwick. However, she

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Russia’s Syrian levers give control the West can only dream of

Russia’s Syrian levers give control the West can only dream of Rodger Shanahan The Australian 21 September 2015 Click here for the online text

By Rodger Shanahan

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Is Russia's growing intervention in Syria a game changer?

The latest analysis of the Syrian conflict from the Institute for the Study of War provides a detailed examination of what it describes (correctly) as a game changer. Assuming its analysis of the military calculus is sound, the questions that remain unanswered relate to the extent to which the

By Bob Bowker

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Open-source intelligence links: Soldiers on Instagram, Russian submarines, Chinese drones, Syria and more

Thanks to advances in digital technologies, open-source intelligence (OSINT) is playing an increasingly important role in the mix of intelligence collected by state and non-state actors. Now and then The Interpreter will publish OSINT links instead of the weekly Digital Asia links to capture the

By Danielle Cave

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The silence of Australia's Imams on the Gulf States and refugees

As I wrote the other week, the Arab world, and the Gulf States in particular, have been happy to bat away any criticism of their complete refusal to resettle any refugees from Syria while leaving the West to deal with the tide of human misery. Protests have been held in Europe debating the pros

By Rodger Shanahan

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Yazidi refugees have an urgent need for protection from genocide

The Australian Government has finally announced that it will increase its humanitarian intake by 12,000 places in the wake of the Syrian crisis. Amid the cacophony over which refugees are most in need of refuge, and the unhelpful 'Muslim versus Christian' discourse, there is a community that has

By Nikki Marczak

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Cambodia and Syria: Every refugee crisis is different

The staggering dimensions of the migrant flow into Europe prompts me to offer a note on the Cambodian refugee crisis of the late 1970s and early 1980s, in which I played a small part. I am not suggesting that what happened 35 years ago offers any answer to current challenges. Rather, the

By Milton Osborne

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Syria: It's what isn't being said that's of interest

The Government's announcement yesterday that it would conduct air strikes inside Syria is notable more for what it didn't say than what it did. It was long on rhetoric, but short on detail, and lacked any semblance of strategic vision or acknowledgment of the potential impact on the situation inside

By Rodger Shanahan

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The US needs to take the fight in Syria more seriously and Australian involvement will help

Very few people would have been surprised at the Australian Government's announcement that the RAAF will extend its operations to ISIS targets in Syria. The announcement was made in conjunction with the decision to permanently resettle 12,000 refugees most in need out of camps in Turkey, Jordan and

By Jim Molan

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Refugee crisis calls for regional response

Refugee crisis calls for regional response Rodger Shanahan The Australian 9 September 2015

By Rodger Shanahan

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