Analyses | 16 February 2006

Global macroeconomic consequences of pandemic influenza

In a major new Analysis, Professor Warwick McKibbin and Dr Alexandra Sidorenko explore the implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak on the global economy. 

Warwick McKibbin

  • Warwick McKibbin

In a major new Analysis, Professor Warwick McKibbin and Dr Alexandra Sidorenko explore the implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak on the global economy. 

Warwick McKibbin

  • Warwick McKibbin
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Executive Summary

Their paper examines a range of scenarios (mild, moderate, severe and ultra) that span the historical experience of influenza pandemics of the twentieth century.
Their analysis finds that a pandemic would be expected to lead to: a fall in the labour force; an increase in the cost of doing business; a shift in consumer preferences; and a re-evaluation of country risk.
The paper finds that even a mild pandemic has significant consequences for global output, costing the world 1.4 million lives and approximately US$330 billion in lost output.