When NATO leaders gather in Vilnius, Lithuania, next week, Ukraine will dominate discussions.
Australia is not a NATO member. We have been invited to this and previous NATO summits, however, because our ability to make a positive contribution to global security is acknowledged.
NATO countries have spent the past year equipping and training the Ukrainian armed forces, in anticipation of a Ukrainian counter-offensive, which has now commenced. Taboos have been shattered along the way. Germany and other NATO partners have sent battle tanks to Ukraine, including the Leopard 2. The United Kingdom has sent the Storm Shadow cruise missile system. US-made Patriot missiles now form an important part of Ukraine’s air defences. And combat aircraft, such as the F-16 or the F/A-18, may not be far away.
Ukraine’s counter-offensive is in its early days. But, away from the battlefield, developments in Russia over the ten days since the Wagner rebellion have given cause for hope.
Modern war is as much a contest between political systems as it is between armed forces. Ukraine’s political system has withstood immense pressure and yet only grown stronger for it. Russia’s political system, by contrast, has started to crack.
While the immediate threat to Vladimir Putin’s leadership from the Wagner revolt may have been averted, both he and the Russian state are weakened from the episode.
Ukraine is a clear beneficiary of this crisis. Instability in Moscow will hurt the front-line morale of Russian troops in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his military leadership will now need to be more concerned about threats to their rule domestically, lessening their ability to focus on the military campaign. And the ability to further mobilise the Russian public and economy behind the war effort will be constrained.
When NATO leaders meet in Vilnius, it will be in a spirit of renewed optimism. The main action item will be what more the West can do to capitalise on Russian disarray and tilt the scales in Ukraine’s favour.
So, when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese turns up, what will he be bringing to the table?