Book

Reports from a Turbulent Decade

Throughout a decade of remarkable change and upheaval, the Lowy Institute has discussed, dissected and analysed the big issues shaping global politics, and provided fresh policy ideas for Australian decision-makers.

Ranked as Australia's leading think tank, the Lowy Institute provides high-quality research and distinctive perspectives on the trends affecting Australia and the world. This anthology features some of the best and most insightful papers, speeches and op-eds from the Lowy Institute's first decade. Included here are works by Lowy Institute researchers, Australian prime ministers and leading international scholars on diverse topics – from America's 'Seinfeld' strategy in Iraq, to building trust with China and Australia's place in the world.

Reports from a Turbulent Decade is available to purchase from all good bookstores ($29.99) and online. An e-book version ($19.99) is also available. The Lowy Institute's Bligh Street headquarters has a limited number of copies available for purchase at our reception.

Michael Fullilove, Anthony Bubalo

20 August 20130 min read

External PublicationsReports from a Turbulent Decade

Reports from a Turbulent Decade

About the authors

Michael Fullilove

Dr Michael Fullilove AM is the Executive Director of the Lowy Institute.

Anthony Bubalo

Anthony Bubalo is a former Nonresident Fellow of the Lowy Institute, and was Deputy Director of the Institute between 2015 and 2018 and Research Director from 2012 to 2018.

Executive Summary

Reports from a Turbulent Decade available from all good book stores and online.

CONTENTS

Foreword Frank Lowy, AC	ix
Introduction Michael Fullilove and Anthony Bubalo	xi
Acknowledgements	xvii

Australia and the World	1
Wasting our time up a diplomatic dead end Allan Gyngell	3
Australia in the world John Howard	7
Howard’s decade: an Australian foreign policy reappraisal Paul Kelly	12
Let’s show the world what we’re made of Allan Gyngell	21
Problems to partnership: a plan for Australia–India strategic ties Rory Medcalf	24
Troops should be kept in Middle East Rodger Shanahan	33
Diplomatic disrepair: rebuilding Australia’s diplomatic infrastructure Alex Oliver and Andrew Shearer	36
Sceptics may scoff, but building trust with China is crucial Linda Jakobson	42
The 2012 Vernon Parker Oration Michael Wesley	45
History asks great nations great questions Julia Gillard	56
Consular conundrum: the rising demands and diminishing means for assisting Australians overseas Alex Oliver	65
The Lowy Institute Poll on Australia and the world: public opinion and foreign policy Fergus Hanson and Alex Oliver	72

Beyond States	81
Parallel worlds Allan Gyngell	83
Heating up the planet: climate change and security Alan Dupont and Graeme Pearman	92
The end of the Vasco da Gama era Coral Bell	97
Relations among nations on a finite planet Bob May	102
World wide webs: diasporas and the international system Michael Fullilove	110
Australia, the region and the world: the challenges ahead Kevin Rudd	120
Mekong: river under threat Milton Osborne	124

Changing Asia	129
India: the next economic giant Mark Thirlwell	131
Regional tensions awaken Alan Dupont	137
A focused force: Australia’s defence priorities in the Asian century Hugh White	140
Asia reconnected Malcolm Cook and Anthony Bubalo	147
Behold the Asian age Michael Wesley	151
Indo-Pacific: what’s in a name? Rory Medcalf	154
China’s foreign policy dilemma Linda Jakobson	157

Australia’s Near Neighbours	163
Indonesia must break with past Stephen Grenville	165
The big clumsy Panda in the Pacific Fergus Hanson	170
Policy overboard: Australia’s increasingly costly Fiji drift Jenny Hayward-Jones	173
Freedom of speech in Fiji Jenny Hayward-Jones	177
Put zest back in our PNG affairs Annmaree O’Keeffe	181
Digital islands: how the Pacific’s ICT revolution is transforming the region Danielle Cave	184
Staying the executioners’ guns? Dave McRae	189

Reflections on America	195
In praise of hypocrisy: the role of ‘values’ in foreign policy James Fallows	197
After Iraq Owen Harries	207
America’s ‘Seinfeld ’ strategy in Iraq Michael Fullilove	214
Obama ought to take up cricket Michael Fullilove	217
Dear Mr President, we beg to differ over the future of Asia Hugh White	220
Revolution @State: the spread of ediplomacy Fergus Hanson	224
The audacity of reasonableness: Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, US foreign policy and Australia Michael Fullilove	230

It’s the Economy, Stupid	237
Sovereign remedies for the modern monarchist Mark Thirlwell	239
Quest for a sensible climate policy Warwick McKibbin	242
Global macroeconomic consequences of pandemic influenza Warwick McKibbin and Alexandra Sidorenko	244
Geeing up the G20 Mark Thirlwell and Malcolm Cook	247
The Euro: chronicle of a death foretold? Mark Thirlwell	254
Bankers hold Europe to ransom Stephen Grenville	256
Relaunching the G20 Mike Callaghan	259

War, Peace and Revolution	267
Anzac, our achilles heel? Hugh White	269
Lawrence of Arabia is out of place in Iraq Anthony Bubalo	272
Australia’s role in China’s naval expansion Sam Roggeveen	275
Obama legacy must rewrite the terms of success Sam Roggeveen	278
One reason you shouldn’t go to Afghanistan with a beard Anthony Bubalo and Susanne Schmeidl	281
Power and choice: Asian security futures Malcolm Cook, Raoul Heinrichs, Rory Medcalf and Andrew Shearer	284
On the 11th, remember the living James Brown	290
Two Afghan views of Australia from Uruzgan Omaid Khpalwak	294
Choice between kings and countries Rodger Shanahan	302

Notes	305

Contributor biographies	325

Executive Summary

Reports from a Turbulent Decade available from all good book stores and online.

CONTENTS

Foreword Frank Lowy, AC	ix
Introduction Michael Fullilove and Anthony Bubalo	xi
Acknowledgements	xvii

Australia and the World	1
Wasting our time up a diplomatic dead end Allan Gyngell	3
Australia in the world John Howard	7
Howard’s decade: an Australian foreign policy reappraisal Paul Kelly	12
Let’s show the world what we’re made of Allan Gyngell	21
Problems to partnership: a plan for Australia–India strategic ties Rory Medcalf	24
Troops should be kept in Middle East Rodger Shanahan	33
Diplomatic disrepair: rebuilding Australia’s diplomatic infrastructure Alex Oliver and Andrew Shearer	36
Sceptics may scoff, but building trust with China is crucial Linda Jakobson	42
The 2012 Vernon Parker Oration Michael Wesley	45
History asks great nations great questions Julia Gillard	56
Consular conundrum: the rising demands and diminishing means for assisting Australians overseas Alex Oliver	65
The Lowy Institute Poll on Australia and the world: public opinion and foreign policy Fergus Hanson and Alex Oliver	72

Beyond States	81
Parallel worlds Allan Gyngell	83
Heating up the planet: climate change and security Alan Dupont and Graeme Pearman	92
The end of the Vasco da Gama era Coral Bell	97
Relations among nations on a finite planet Bob May	102
World wide webs: diasporas and the international system Michael Fullilove	110
Australia, the region and the world: the challenges ahead Kevin Rudd	120
Mekong: river under threat Milton Osborne	124

Changing Asia	129
India: the next economic giant Mark Thirlwell	131
Regional tensions awaken Alan Dupont	137
A focused force: Australia’s defence priorities in the Asian century Hugh White	140
Asia reconnected Malcolm Cook and Anthony Bubalo	147
Behold the Asian age Michael Wesley	151
Indo-Pacific: what’s in a name? Rory Medcalf	154
China’s foreign policy dilemma Linda Jakobson	157

Australia’s Near Neighbours	163
Indonesia must break with past Stephen Grenville	165
The big clumsy Panda in the Pacific Fergus Hanson	170
Policy overboard: Australia’s increasingly costly Fiji drift Jenny Hayward-Jones	173
Freedom of speech in Fiji Jenny Hayward-Jones	177
Put zest back in our PNG affairs Annmaree O’Keeffe	181
Digital islands: how the Pacific’s ICT revolution is transforming the region Danielle Cave	184
Staying the executioners’ guns? Dave McRae	189

Reflections on America	195
In praise of hypocrisy: the role of ‘values’ in foreign policy James Fallows	197
After Iraq Owen Harries	207
America’s ‘Seinfeld ’ strategy in Iraq Michael Fullilove	214
Obama ought to take up cricket Michael Fullilove	217
Dear Mr President, we beg to differ over the future of Asia Hugh White	220
Revolution @State: the spread of ediplomacy Fergus Hanson	224
The audacity of reasonableness: Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, US foreign policy and Australia Michael Fullilove	230

It’s the Economy, Stupid	237
Sovereign remedies for the modern monarchist Mark Thirlwell	239
Quest for a sensible climate policy Warwick McKibbin	242
Global macroeconomic consequences of pandemic influenza Warwick McKibbin and Alexandra Sidorenko	244
Geeing up the G20 Mark Thirlwell and Malcolm Cook	247
The Euro: chronicle of a death foretold? Mark Thirlwell	254
Bankers hold Europe to ransom Stephen Grenville	256
Relaunching the G20 Mike Callaghan	259

War, Peace and Revolution	267
Anzac, our achilles heel? Hugh White	269
Lawrence of Arabia is out of place in Iraq Anthony Bubalo	272
Australia’s role in China’s naval expansion Sam Roggeveen	275
Obama legacy must rewrite the terms of success Sam Roggeveen	278
One reason you shouldn’t go to Afghanistan with a beard Anthony Bubalo and Susanne Schmeidl	281
Power and choice: Asian security futures Malcolm Cook, Raoul Heinrichs, Rory Medcalf and Andrew Shearer	284
On the 11th, remember the living James Brown	290
Two Afghan views of Australia from Uruzgan Omaid Khpalwak	294
Choice between kings and countries Rodger Shanahan	302

Notes	305

Contributor biographies	325

Reports from a Turbulent Decade

Newsletters

Newsletters

Executive Summary

Newsletters

Reports from a Turbulent Decade

Executive Summary