Five One-Chinas: The contest to define Taiwan
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) may soon have the support of a clear majority of countries to take control of Taiwan, with or without force, a new Lowy Institute Data Snapshot reveals.
The report, entitled Five One-Chinas: The contest to define Taiwan, by Dr Benjamin Herscovitch, shows that Beijing has convinced 89 countries (nearly half of United Nations member states) to combine their endorsement of its one-China principle with support for PRC efforts to “achieve national reunification”.
Crucially, these countries have done so without specifying that China’s efforts should be peaceful, in effect consenting to the possible use of force to take control of Taiwan.
The world-first dataset, sorting all UN member states’ positions on Taiwan into five typologies, debunks claims of universal support for the PRC view that “Taiwan is an inalienable part of China”. But it does reveal widespread international endorsement of Beijing’s position and preferred language on Taiwan.
“Judging by Beijing’s recent successes and the PRC’s growing global power, it is likely that more countries will back more aspects of the Chinese government’s position on Taiwan in the coming years,” Dr Herscovitch says.
In the analysis of the findings, he writes, “The PRC might be aiming to create an international environment in which most countries are committed to its view of Taiwan, and global resistance to an attack across the Strait is thereby minimised.”
“Dr Herscovitch and the Lowy Institute have created a world-first analytical framework to help clarify the debate on one of the sharpest fault lines in global politics,” according to the Lowy Institute’s Director of Research Hervé Lemahieu.
KEY FINDING
- Global attention is often focused on Taiwan’s dwindling diplomatic partners, which have dropped to just 11 UN member states, mostly small Caribbean and Pacific Island countries. But what matters more is the growing global support for China’s efforts to bring Taiwan under its control, potentially via the use of force.
- Only 40 countries (21 per cent of UN member states) maintain one-China policies that recognise the government in Beijing but stop short of accepting China’s sovereignty over the de facto independent territory of Taiwan. These countries “take note of”, “acknowledge”, or “respect” (all without outright endorsing) Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is part of China.
- By contrast, nearly three-quarters of countries (74 per cent or 142 in total) now support Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China, though a number of these (23) have declined to also endorse Beijing’s preferred one-China principle.
- A majority of countries (119 or 62 per cent of UN member states) have endorsed Beijing’s one-China principle, which entails that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the People’s Republic of China.
- Of those, 89 countries (nearly half of UN member states) have combined their endorsement of Beijing’s one-China principle with support for its efforts to “achieve national reunification”. Crucially, they have done so without specifying that these efforts should be peaceful, arguably consenting to Beijing using force to take control of Taiwan.
The full Lowy Institute Data Snapshot, Five One-Chinas: The contest to define Taiwan, is available to read and download now.
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