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A reality show for the US presidential race

When it became clear in March and April that pandemic precautions would limit the activities of the US presidential candidates, the scheduled debates between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden stood out as a singular opportunity to alter the trajectory of the race. But on the
By Erin Hurley
28 Sep 20
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China and the Rules‑Based Order

Seven experts debate China’s approach to the rules‑based international order
By Ben Scott, Nadège Rolland, John Culver, David Kelly
25 Sep 20
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A reckless president emboldened

In an essay for Foreign Affairs this month, Richard Haas explains that over the past four years the Trump administration has disrupted US foreign policy and left America worse off. The adminstration did not respect what was working in American foreign policy, and after they broke things, they
By Erin Hurley
23 Sep 20
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How much did the spies really know about the virus?

Something doesn’t quite line up in Bob Woodward’s latest book – and you have to look at what we know about intelligence assessments in Australia to understand why. Woodward tells us in Rage, his second look into the current White House, of top-secret warnings delivered to US President
By Daniel Flitton
23 Sep 20
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The South China Sea map that wasn’t

On 9 September, the US embassy in Hanoi published on Facebook a map of Vietnam on a poster to commemorate the 25th anniversary of US-Vietnam diplomatic relations. At first the map did not attract much attention, given both countries had celebrated the occasion on 11 July, the official date of the
By Khang Vu
22 Sep 20
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Ginsburg’s pendulum

Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died last week at the age of 87, lived long enough to become a cultural icon. She was also someone frequently called upon to offer life advice, or more recently advice on repairing a system of government that feels irreparably broken. Shortly after the
By Erin Hurley
21 Sep 20
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America’s breaking point?

US Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on Friday after a long battle with cancer. As the US and world mourns the loss of an icon, there are increasing concerns about what her death means for American politics. The immediate worry is that this year’s US presidential election will
By Adam Henschke
20 Sep 20
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Trump’s gambit in the Balkans

Twenty-five years after brokering the Dayton Peace Accords, which effectively ended the Bosnian conflict, Europe’s bloodiest war since the Second World War, Washington is once again acting as a de facto security guarantor in the Western Balkans. This comes despite more than seven years of (ongoing
By Nina Markovic Khaze, Perparim Xhaferi
16 Sep 20
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Cut! How Hollywood self-censors on China

What should have been a family favourite film has turned into a political nightmare, with moviegoers around the world urged to boycott the new Disney film Mulan due to its links with the Chinese Communist Party.  Calls to
By Nicole de Souza
14 Sep 20
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America: Demographic shift to democratic redemption

As Americans head into the final months of the 2020 election, US President Donald Trump, trailing Democratic candidate Joe Biden, is on offence, raising the volume on his “law and order” message and hoping to force concerns about his pandemic response into the background. Biden is working hard
By Erin Hurley
09 Sep 20
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Pandemic democracy

How will Covid-19 affect electoral democracy in Australia and around the world? The pandemic has starkly revealed two fundamental aspects of successful democracy: the extent of a given society’s trust between its citizens and their government, and the capacity of those same governments to
By Benjamin Reilly
07 Sep 20
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A Biden presidency and the US–South Korea alliance

US presidential candidate Joe Biden, leading in most polls more than two months before the November election, is cautiously expected to win office. On foreign policy, his plan has been characterised as a “restoration project” to rebuild America’s international standing, with the help of allies
By Khang Vu
03 Sep 20
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A diplomatic breakdown over “snapback” tests the UN

After the United States experienced a rebuff at the United Nations last week – with almost the entire membership of the Security Council rejecting its attempt to re-impose UN sanctions on Iran – US officials warned that the dispute could lead to a major crisis in the Council, damaging the
By Richard Gowan
28 Aug 20
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America’s very unusual conventions

As with so many events in America this year, public expectations around the 2020 political conventions were muted. And yet, both parties approached their conventions with outsize ambition.  Last week’s all-virtual Democratic convention was generally well received. The event showcased a
By Erin Hurley
26 Aug 20
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Where next for MIKTA?

After seven years, the informal middle power partnership bringing together Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey and Australia (MIKTA), has achieved less than optimists envisioned, but lasted longer than pessimists imagined. MIKTA emerged from the G20 in 2013, bringing together middle powers
By Jeffrey Robertson
26 Aug 20
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Hidden seams in the UAE-Israel deal

The main questions about the normalisation agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates announced a week ago are why did it happen and what will it change? It’s pretty clear what US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu get out of the deal – both leaders
By Ben Scott
21 Aug 20
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The Democrat and the world’s biggest democracy

Given the high degree of political participation by the South Asian diaspora in the US that I’ve written about before, it seemed an inevitability that a person with some degree of Indian ethnicity or culture would make it onto a presidential ticket. The question was never if, but who. Would it be
By Aarti Betigeri
19 Aug 20
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Kamala Harris: Where does Australia feature in her worldview?

Kamala Harris’ anointment last week as Joe Biden’s US presidential election running mate was in some ways groundbreaking – she is the first Black woman and the first Asian-American woman on a major party ticket – but in most ways she is a conventional choice. Harris is a moderate Democrat
By Iona Main
18 Aug 20
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The essence of timing in politics

The 13 August announcement of a United Arab Emirates–Israel deal to normalise relations was a significant event. But at the same time, it overshadowed a number of other interesting Middle Eastern political and security-related manoeuvres occurring elsewhere. The agreement itself was an
By Rodger Shanahan
17 Aug 20
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Diego Garcia: The US has a clear choice

Mauritius is the legitimate sovereign over the Chagos Archipelago, including the island of Diego Garcia, which hosts an important US military base in the Indo-Pacific region. The government of Mauritius has publicly announced its willingness to enter into an agreement that would preserve the base,
By Jagdish Koonjul
14 Aug 20
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Contemplating Kamala Harris

Was Kamala Harris the right choice for presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden? Is she a policy radical or a centrist? What are her foreign policy views, and will they be influential in a Biden administration, or will the president set his own agenda? These and other questions are
By Michael Fullilove, Richard McGregor
14 Aug 20
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In US election, no surprise, no mystery

It’s August and most Americans are hot and sticky and impatient with the ongoing failure to manage the coronavirus pandemic. Despite 160,000 Covid-19 deaths and one out of every five American workers claiming unemployment insurance, the US Congress remains deadlocked over a fifth pandemic relief
By Erin Hurley
12 Aug 20
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The most important American election ever?

When Donald Trump and Joe Biden compete for the American presidency in November, it may prove to be the most consequential election the world has ever seen. Yes – that is a bit hyperbolic, but let’s consider what’s at stake. First, it’s not entirely certain that Trump will lose, despite
By Mark Beeson
10 Aug 20
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Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Inquiry into the Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Australia's Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade

Joint submission by Lowy Institute researchers to the JSCFADT inquiry into the implications of the pandemic.  
By Ben Bland, Alexandre Dayant, John Edwards, Michael Fullilove, Bonnie S Glaser, Stephen Grenville, Natasha Kassam, Lydia Khalil, Hervé Lemahieu , Alyssa Leng, Richard McGregor, Shane McLeod, Annmaree O’Keeffe, Alex Oliver, Jonathan Pryke, Roland Rajah, Sam Roggeveen, Ben Scott
07 Aug 20
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Cyber sovereignty cuts both ways

The White House's approach to managing the potential security threats posed by TikTok, WeChat and other Chinese-owned apps is hardly a model of procedural justice. Without a clear legal or regulatory framework, the Trump Administration has issued executive orders banning transactions with the
By Elliott Zaagman
07 Aug 20
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It’s always about the oil in the Middle East

Despite US President Donald Trump’s claim that the United States no longer needed Middle East oil following the attacks on the Abqaiq production facilities in Saudi Arabia in September last year, the fact is oil from the region does remain important to the US, not only for its own use, but also as
By Rodger Shanahan
06 Aug 20
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Book Review: Superpower showdown

Book Review: Bob Davis and Lingling Wei, Superpower Showdown: How the Battle Between Trump and Xi Threatens a New Cold War (HarperCollins, 2020). Global relations are undergoing a dramatic shift. China is increasingly assertive internationally and repressive domestically. Examples of its brashness
By Robert Wihtol
31 Jul 20
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US–South Korea: Working group blues

South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in’s appointment of new national security advisers has attracted attention, given their pro-détente stance in spite of North Korea’s latest provocations. The incoming team has rolled out an ambitious agenda to break the stalemate between the North and South
By Khang Vu
31 Jul 20
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