Geo-economics
A currency war would be no bad thing
The European Central Bank has finally begun to engage in quantitative easing. The euro depreciated on the news, which is good for the Europeans but bad for the rest of the world,…
The IMF's pessimism is misplaced
When the IMF produced its last World Economic Outlook in October, one of the risks it forecast was a possible oil price increase. A US$25 per barrel increase, the IMF said, would…
Oil drops 50%, world shrugs
What does the fall in the price of oil do for global economic growth?
If the price of oil had swiftly risen by 50%, economic commentators would be calling this an economic…
Sanctions and the coming Russian recession
The IMF, OECD and the Russians themselves have substantially downgraded their Russian economic growth forecasts for 2015. The fall in the oil price is partly responsible. However,…
Why America can't compete with China's regional financial order
'You can always count on China to be good to its neighbours this time of year', observes Carl Thayer. 'The money is meant to send a message that China is the big sugar daddy of…
Foreign direct investment: Ten simple questions
1. Why is FDI so sensitive?
Here is an impolite truth about international commerce: governments, even 'liberal capitalist' ones, are obsessed with sovereignty. Foreign direct…
What to expect from the Sydney G20 Finance Ministers' meeting
G20 finance ministers and central-bank governors will gather in Sydney this weekend. The forecast is for possible showers. But will it rain on Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey’s…