IMF
The IMF's pessimism is misplaced
When the IMF produced its last World Economic Outlook in October, one of the risks it forecast was a possible oil price increase. A US$25 per barrel increase, the IMF said, would…
Indonesia leads on petrol subsidies, but will others follow?
The fall in the world oil price has created the opportunity to eliminate petroleum subsidies in a number of Southeast Asian countries. These subsidies have been the long-standing…
No, the IMF did not cause the Ebola crisis
Headlines blaming the IMF for the Ebola crisis are something you may expect in the tabloid press. However, a robust debate on the role of the IMF in the spread of Ebola was…
Which countries are driving global growth?
Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words.
With the G20 focused on increasing economic growth, it's worth remembering where the global action is. The above graph from the IMF…
Why the IMF's poor forecasting matters
Economic forecasting is the butt of jokes, but someone has to do it. You can't make sensible macro policy without some view of how the economy will travel. It's the IMF's…
IMF changes its tune on infrastructure
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF has joined the chorus of international institutions (G20, OECD) calling for more infrastructure spending.
What new elements does the…
G20: Cairns meeting had substance, but now we need action
Last weekend's meeting of G20 finance ministers in Cairns achieved more than many other similar G20 meetings. But will it 'change the destiny of the global economy' as claimed by…
Argentina and the problem of sovereign debt restructuring
The long running Argentine debt-default saga has taken another step forward (or backwards, depending on your viewpoint). The US Supreme Court has ruled definitively against…
When should the IMF apologise?
If you make a mistake, common courtesy says you should apologise. The IMF made a mistake in its forecasts for the UK economy — a high profile mistake. It admitted it got it wrong…
Global financial crisis: Did the system really work?
Much of the mountain of commentary and analysis of the 2008 Great Recession has been either critical (Paul Krugman might be typical), or a self-interested defence (Tim Geithner…